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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,421
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:01am Apr 23, 2008 4:01am
Quoting fx local
u dont understand basic economics and how markets work, inflation is the predominate concern now, cutting rates will not stimluate the growth here as much, credit crunch started by the banks they in trouble rest of economy doing ok, BoE provided liquidity fund for banks in trouble leaving them to concentrate on inflation as said by BoEs Besley yesterday, useen food and petrol costs, UK resigned to a healthly decrease in excess capacity, nothing wrong with that... at the moment UK has highest level of employment in years, BoE has to target inflation and with rising food and energy costs cant see how they going to meet their mandate of 2% inflation in coming months... either way cable been stuck in a range for the last 3 months awaiting clear direction and no economist hardly ever comes to an agreement, they all have different views on markets as we do!
Thanks for mature insight on what we are supposed to be doing
that is, to speculate how main players react to fundamentals, and follow
the chart accrodingly, and not analyze markets.

Leave fundamentals to the main players and concentrate on how
it plays out on the chart. But most retail traders don't even know
that they are speculators and not traders in the real sense.

We are just betting with our brokers on will cable go up or down?
  • #62,422
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:02am Apr 23, 2008 4:02am
Quoting fx local
6 for 25 cut
1 blanchflower for 50 cut (arch dove)
2 sentence and besley for no cut (arch hawks)

news always creates knee jerk reaction, sometimes opp for fast easy pips
100% agreed, without news London Session night is always an easy shot. But with news night even with any news, the London Session night is always hell night unless if you are ahead of the market I mean play spotting trade- whichever way the bus is going just hang in there and enjoy taking the ride. But in my case nowadays I am getting my confidence back and for me whenever I see this kind of situation, my hand would automatically be away from the keyboard....
  • #62,423
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:05am Apr 23, 2008 4:05am
Quoting asyed4
whenever I see this kind of situation, my hand would automatically be away from the keyboard....
I second that
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #62,424
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:07am Apr 23, 2008 4:07am
Quoting fxbroker
Thanks for mature insight on what we are supposed to be doing
that is, to speculate how main players react to fundamentals, and follow
the chart accrodingly, and not analyze markets.

Leave fundamentals to the main players and concentrate on how
it plays out on the chart. But most retail traders don't even know
that they are speculators and not traders in the real sense.

We are just betting with our brokers on will cable go up or down?

absolutely..and if there confused then how can we know which way this is heading 3 months of indecision and like i said yesterday cable is in consolidation period up and down equal movements ..we are inbetween a rock and hard stone..
  • #62,425
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:07am Apr 23, 2008 4:07am
Quoting fx local
u dont understand basic economics and how markets work, inflation is the predominate concern now, cutting rates will not stimluate the growth here as much, credit crunch started by the banks they in trouble rest of economy doing ok, BoE provided liquidity fund for banks in trouble leaving them to concentrate on inflation as said by BoEs Besley yesterday, useen food and petrol costs, UK resigned to a healthly decrease in excess capacity, nothing wrong with that... at the moment UK has highest level of employment in years, BoE has to target inflation and with rising food and energy costs cant see how they going to meet their mandate of 2% inflation in coming months... either way cable been stuck in a range for the last 3 months awaiting clear direction and no economist hardly ever comes to an agreement, they all have different views on markets as we do!

what they did to banks will delay the problem for a couple of months. and believe me bro i understand economics and i dont know if u noticed but UK ppi and cpi numbers are not that bad actually last month they were pretty good compared to wat analysts thought they would be. and thats y 7 out of 9 were voting for a cut.

plus i think if they concentrate on inflation rather than boosting the economy they will see wat US is going through first hand.


bro u r missing the big picture.
first off inflation is rising all over the world and if u notice gbp is not weak even at these levels for BOE to take drastic measures to fight it.
and the employment u are talking about will decrease if business men keep going to US to buy merchandise and leaving europe and UK behind.

all the best
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,426
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:10am Apr 23, 2008 4:10am
Quoting fxbroker
Thanks for mature insight on what we are supposed to be doing
that is, to speculate how main players react to fundamentals, and follow
the chart accrodingly, and not analyze markets.

Leave fundamentals to the main players and concentrate on how
it plays out on the chart. But most retail traders don't even know
that they are speculators and not traders in the real sense.

We are just betting with our brokers on will cable go up or down?
i have found that that it is best not to to try and gauge if fundamentals are bullish or bearish instead focus on markets response to the news. Sometimes if a market shrugs off alot of bearish news this promotes evidence of an impending bull move vie versa....

if trading were as easy as judging fundmentals we would all be rich but trading (retail) all about risk reward and probabilty and having the edge...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,427
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:13am Apr 23, 2008 4:13am
I think cable can reach to 2.0000 this week
Grasp all lose all
  • #62,428
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:16am Apr 23, 2008 4:16am
Quoting Teefoo
I think cable can reach to 2.0000 this week
My opinion is if it hit 2.0030 then it could hit 2.0400 at least....
  • #62,429
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:17am Apr 23, 2008 4:17am
Quoting fx local
i have found that that it is best not to to try and gauge if fundamentals are bullish or bearish instead focus on markets response to the news. Sometimes if a market shrugs off alot of bearish news this promotes evidence of an impending bull move vie versa....

if trading were as easy as judging fundmentals we would all be rich but trading (retail) all about risk reward and probabilty and having the edge...
you are absolutely right but wat if we actually figure it out by doing these discussions.

I mean u could convince me or i could convince u by laying down all the facts and anlayzing them.

it shouldnt be that hard after all we are educated people figuring out a good trade entry.

they say 2 heads are better than one
well how about 30 heads watching the thread and pitching in ideas.

i mean if we dont solve it then we are considered dumb and we dont deserve to call ourselves traders.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,430
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:19am Apr 23, 2008 4:19am
Quoting hornet
I second that
I am gonna leave one idea behind this MPC meeting minutes, you could go short I mean in the last hour of Asia Session because during the first two hours of Pre-UK trading, it went down up to 1.9866. I did 0.1 lot with short in Asia Session but I was so stupid taking out that lot before go to bed around 11:15 am us session time just before the climax (12:00 am - 2:00 am).

I agree with someone; if trading is that easy then nobody would go to School and getting their Bachelors and Masters and everybody would be in front of their computers and earn money!!!!!!!!
  • #62,431
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:25am Apr 23, 2008 4:25am
Quoting salah k.
what they did to banks will delay the problem for a couple of months. and believe me bro i understand economics and i dont know if u noticed but UK ppi and cpi numbers are not that bad actually last month they were pretty good compared to wat analysts thought they would be. and thats y 7 out of 9 were voting for a cut.

plus i think if they concentrate on inflation rather than boosting the economy they will see wat US is going through first hand.


bro u r missing the big picture.
first off inflation is rising all over the world and if u notice gbp is not weak even at these levels for BOE to take drastic measures to fight it.
and the employment u are talking about will decrease if business men keep going to US to buy merchandise and leaving europe and UK behind.

all the best
salah - i take it ur short sterling then! if employment decreases it is not neccessary a bad thing, natural evolution of markets and the business cycle, inflation here in uk is worse than they let on, hmm last month pertol prices went up 2.5% alone and their target rate was 2.5% seems odd... it will increase drastically in coming months restricting easing action... inflation is generally a monetary phemonon, ie if you increase the money supply via lower rates, u create inflation?! created by US intially by way of debasing the value of the dollar..

anyway that info not going to make u huge amount of money, i generally trade off my technical viewpoint ie what the charts tell me... at end of the day markets go up down or sideways, best to go with the flow and trade what u see not what u think! - thats the big picutre that i fully acknowledge "bro"
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,432
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:31am Apr 23, 2008 4:31am
Quoting fx local
salah - i take it ur short sterling then! if employment decreases it is not neccessary a bad thing, natural evolution of markets and the business cycle, inflation here in uk is worse than they let on, hmm last month pertol prices went up 2.5% alone and their target rate was 2.5% seems odd... it will increase drastically in coming months restricting easing action... inflation is generally a monetary phemonon, ie if you increase the money supply via lower rates, u create inflation?! created by US intially by way of debasing the value of the dollar..

anyway that info not going to make u huge amount of money, i generally trade off my technical viewpoint ie what the charts tell me... at end of the day markets go up down or sideways, best to go with the flow and trade what u see not what u think! - thats the big picutre that i fully acknowledge "bro"

no bro i am definitely not short as that would be suicide because neither technicals nor fundamentals tell me to go short now.

however Im trying to anlayze it to be able to make a good entry and use larger time frames.

thats it.

but thnx for ur views
they are extremely informative.

but wats killing me from going long is US
i truly think that US is gonna screw us and turn the other direction.
I mean how far can it fall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,433
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:43am Apr 23, 2008 4:43am
Inflation at 2%, thats one of the biggest lies going.

Yes it is, if you treat everything thats on sale equally, ie tv's cause there getting cheaper and computers cheaper which is offsetting the inflation.

If you just take into consideration core buy every day essentials, ie food, fuel, electricity, gas, then 15-20% increase over the last 6months is alot more sensible.

Alot of that is because we buy our food alot from europe and the pound is all time lows with europe, wishing we'd joined the euro especially as the GF's off to italy 1.2euro's per the pound, it was 1.6 not that long ago thats a 25% hit right there.

Banks WILL fail, this is a delay tactic nothing more in the hope that tommorow they'll find a solution, sadly the longer you delay it the worse it's going to get.

1.179 per litre for diesel here thats $9.40 per US 4 litre gallon, thats up 20p since november and no sign of it slowing yet
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,434
  • Edited 4:44am Apr 23, 2008 4:44am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting asyed4
My opinion is if it hit 2.0030 then it could hit 2.0400 at least....
What makes you believe that GBP would go up to that level? Gave us something tangible to grasp your idea. Otherwise why even throw out your opionion?

In my opionion I believe GBP would go to 3.1000
  • #62,435
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:50am Apr 23, 2008 4:50am
My opinion is if it hit 2.0030 then it could hit 2.0400 at least....

Could is the operative word there I think.

Other way of looking at it, if its going to go to 2.0400 then it's got to pass 2.0030 LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,436
  • Apr 23, 2008 4:57am Apr 23, 2008 4:57am
Quoting fxbroker

We are just betting with our brokers on will cable go up or down?
so true
  • #62,437
  • Apr 23, 2008 5:07am Apr 23, 2008 5:07am
Quoting DJ4x
so true
I trade better when I just flip a coin, which kinda proves it really

The Coin still said up for today remember
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,438
  • Apr 23, 2008 5:12am Apr 23, 2008 5:12am
I set 2 buys before work as price fell this morning as shown.
The first was triggered and the other one was so close. I think I do this 2 much as I am a bit of perfectionist and in the end that costs you in this game ,lol
I looking for 2 to break as per my wedge post yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: confluence.gif Size: 20 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,439
  • Apr 23, 2008 5:14am Apr 23, 2008 5:14am
i never seen a currency so lost as this one right now ..even now ..it seems like cable wants to go back to the weekly pivot but cant ..lol
  • #62,440
  • Apr 23, 2008 5:16am Apr 23, 2008 5:16am
Quoting Turveyd
I trade better when I just flip a coin, which kinda proves it really

The Coin still said up for today remember
I remember...... and two out of three calls that u made i was in it with you guys....
I have closed all my positions this morning just after the news release.... I am now waiting for a clear break in direction... It is near major resistance on my 1 hour monthly chart so will look for a short if does not break 2.0030 else will wait for it to drop and then re enter long... we will see
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