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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,401
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:22am Apr 23, 2008 3:22am
Quoting fx local
its old news, ithink any doveish news will be quickly flushed out
i dont know about that because UK fundamentals are really weak and are getting weaker by the month.

the only thing thats causing the markets to with hold this uptrend is oil and u better believe it

politics is a cruel game and so far its kicking dollars ass.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,402
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:23am Apr 23, 2008 3:23am
Quoting salah k.
when ur decreasing rates on a currency people usually dont put their money in that currency in the short term because the rates given by banks are low.

but on the long term decreasing rates sparks the economy and might help with credit crunch and hence with housing problem.

or so they say.

didnt u notice wat happened wen time US decreased rates by 50bps last november.
ahh i see i thought if the rates were reduced then...people wont place money in the banks because reates are very low and instead consumer spending increase andthis has positive effect ..but ok what yur saying makes sense and must rememeber this ...

last november i might have heard the word "forex" for the first time bro ...lol
  • #62,403
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:26am Apr 23, 2008 3:26am
Quoting salah k.
in the short term yes a rate cut means that cable is going down.
Are you short now my dear
Grasp all lose all
  • #62,404
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:29am Apr 23, 2008 3:29am
Quoting twofeet
I am thinking we probably would be heading up as well - to 2.0000 first before exhaustion, and then have to re-look again.

I'm no guru but we gotta take the whole picture in consideration, not just the GBP cuts. USD has been overall bearish against the majors this week, and the GBP cut is expected, so it might already be priced in.

Price has also rebounded strongly on last 50% fib level.
i was just about to enter when i saw the long shadows not closing below weekly pivot .....but i never entered cause of the news ..rate cut generaly have a lot of volatility and very unpredictable ..i might regret not entering but this week im just study the market and seeing if i see patterns in cable movement ...
  • #62,405
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:33am Apr 23, 2008 3:33am
Quoting salah k.
i dont know about that because UK fundamentals are really weak and are getting weaker by the month.

the only thing thats causing the markets to with hold this uptrend is oil and u better believe it

politics is a cruel game and so far its kicking dollars ass.
i dont understand what fundamentals u are talking about? the housing markets is showing signs of weakness and thats it.. retail sales strong, BoE bailing out the banks so credit markets should ease up, dont forgot inflation is the main mandate for MPC, high inflation in UK, hence the reaction the minutes is up as expected! 3 way split
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,406
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:33am Apr 23, 2008 3:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i was just about to enter when i saw the long shadows not closing below weekly pivot .....but i never entered cause of the news ..rate cut generaly have a lot of volatility and very unpredictable ..i might regret not entering but this week im just study the market and seeing if i see patterns in cable movement ...
I agree with Navin, what's going on, we expect the news would be bad and now the rate is going up and up. Thanks GOD I didn't enter with shorts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #62,407
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:34am Apr 23, 2008 3:34am
Quoting fx local
i dont understand what fundamentals u are talking about? the housing markets is showing signs of weakness and thats it.. retail sales strong, BoE bailing out the banks so credit markets should ease up, dont forgot inflation is the main mandate for MPC, high inflation in UK, hence the reaction the minutes is up as expected! 3 way split
easy pips from that news actually, free money trade
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,408
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:34am Apr 23, 2008 3:34am
Quoting Teefoo
Are you short now my dear
"my dear" ???
  • #62,409
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:35am Apr 23, 2008 3:35am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ahh i see i thought if the rates were reduced then...people wont place money in the banks because reates are very low and instead consumer spending increase andthis has positive effect ..but ok what yur saying makes sense and must rememeber this ...

last november i might have heard the word "forex" for the first time bro ...lol


u are right but that will happen in the long run because consumer spending will need a couple of months after a rate cut to increase.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,410
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:36am Apr 23, 2008 3:36am
Quoting Teefoo
Are you short now my dear
y would i be short now ???

the rate cut happened on the 7th
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,411
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:36am Apr 23, 2008 3:36am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i was just about to enter when i saw the long shadows not closing below weekly pivot .....but i never entered cause of the news ..rate cut generaly have a lot of volatility and very unpredictable ..i might regret not entering but this week im just study the market and seeing if i see patterns in cable movement ...
Good call , always better to hold on to money you already have!
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #62,412
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:37am Apr 23, 2008 3:37am
Quoting salah k.
u are right but that will happen in the long run because consumer spending will need a couple of months after a rate cut to increase.

that makes perfect sense .....thx buddy ..
  • #62,413
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:39am Apr 23, 2008 3:39am
Quoting fx local
i dont understand what fundamentals u are talking about? the housing markets is showing signs of weakness and thats it.. retail sales strong, BoE bailing out the banks so credit markets should ease up, dont forgot inflation is the main mandate for MPC, high inflation in UK, hence the reaction the minutes is up as expected! 3 way split
u do realize that solving the credit crunch doesnt happen by bailing banks.
it just postpones it.

plus housing affects everything from consumer spending to employment.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,414
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:41am Apr 23, 2008 3:41am
Quoting twofeet
Good call , always better to hold on to money you already have!
thx buddy ..always better to regret not entering a market because u would have made the right decision as appossed to entrying and losing .....lol
  • #62,415
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:41am Apr 23, 2008 3:41am
Quoting nAVIN2007
that makes perfect sense .....thx buddy ..
hey man don't mention it
you've helped me a thousand times with my technical analysis.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #62,416
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:46am Apr 23, 2008 3:46am
Quoting nAVIN2007
that makes perfect sense .....thx buddy ..
The 7-2 cut already influenced price. GU moved not less than 64 pips up. Let's see if it down again.
PIPS AND PIPS ONLY... + OF COURSE
  • #62,417
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:49am Apr 23, 2008 3:49am
Quoting kaka08
The 7-2 cut already influenced price. GU moved not less than 64 pips up. Let's see if it down again.
I understand what's going on. I again thanks Allah that I didn't enter into the trade. The reason is as follows: The news was actually green because two of the 9 members were voted no change and this time very first time the news was in 3 way 6-2-1.......Waooooooooooo One good thing happened that in Forex factory the data didn't appear for 12 minutes and when the data appeared it was first time green in 3-way in history even the rate was cut in the original meeting.....

London, April 23. A three-way split for the April MPC vote with six calling for the 1/4-point cut, one member calling for a half-point drop and two members looking for no change in policy.
Clearly a good mix of views and outlooks within the committee with two members feeling rates should be left alone and the traditional dove, Blanchflower, calling for a 50 basis points drop. The six voting for the actual 25 basis point move completed the first 3-way split since 2006.
Cable bolted north on the "no change" votes and reached indicated highs of 1.9973 before drifting lower under the weight of profit taking.
Mortgage approval data has been overshadowed by the MPC minutes but the fall in approvals in March will be marked against the Pound. Net March underlying mortgage lending was up 5.1% from 5.5% in February.
  • #62,418
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:51am Apr 23, 2008 3:51am
Quoting salah k.
u do realize that solving the credit crunch doesnt happen by bailing banks.
it just postpones it.

plus housing affects everything from consumer spending to employment.
u dont understand basic economics and how markets work, inflation is the predominate concern now, cutting rates will not stimluate the growth here as much, credit crunch started by the banks they in trouble rest of economy doing ok, BoE provided liquidity fund for banks in trouble leaving them to concentrate on inflation as said by BoEs Besley yesterday, useen food and petrol costs, UK resigned to a healthly decrease in excess capacity, nothing wrong with that... at the moment UK has highest level of employment in years, BoE has to target inflation and with rising food and energy costs cant see how they going to meet their mandate of 2% inflation in coming months... either way cable been stuck in a range for the last 3 months awaiting clear direction and no economist hardly ever comes to an agreement, they all have different views on markets as we do!
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,419
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:53am Apr 23, 2008 3:53am
Quoting asyed4
I understand what's going on. I again thanks Allah that I didn't enter into the trade. The reason is as follows: The news was actually green because two of the 9 members were voted no change and this time very first time the news was in 3 way 6-2-1.......Waooooooooooo One good thing happened that in Forex factory the data didn't appear for 12 minutes and when the data appeared it was first time green in 3-way in history even the rate was cut in the original meeting.....

London, April 23. A three-way split for the April MPC vote with six calling for the 1/4-point cut, one member calling for a half-point drop and two members looking for no change in policy.
Clearly a good mix of views and outlooks within the committee with two members feeling rates should be left alone and the traditional dove, Blanchflower, calling for a 50 basis points drop. The six voting for the actual 25 basis point move completed the first 3-way split since 2006.
Cable bolted north on the "no change" votes and reached indicated highs of 1.9973 before drifting lower under the weight of profit taking.
Mortgage approval data has been overshadowed by the MPC minutes but the fall in approvals in March will be marked against the Pound. Net March underlying mortgage lending was up 5.1% from 5.5% in February.

One more thing guys, the forex factory tricked us, I found out in commentary in my accounts that the actual data is in this form - 6-2-1 and the forex factory showed as 6-2 but it was showed as green. I think many people confused with not having-1 in their news in forex factory website.
I think this time is 50-50 chance that actually it would drop or not because the MPC meeting news actually went for good for GBP.....
  • #62,420
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:55am Apr 23, 2008 3:55am
Quoting asyed4
One more thing guys, the forex factory tricked us, I found out in commentary in my accounts that the actual data is in this form - 6-2-1 and the forex factory showed as 6-2 but it was showed as green. I think many people confused with not having-1 in their news in forex factory website.
I think this time is 50-50 chance that actually it would drop or not because the MPC meeting news actually went for good for GBP.....
6 for 25 cut
1 blanchflower for 50 cut (arch dove)
2 sentence and besley for no cut (arch hawks)

news always creates knee jerk reaction, sometimes opp for fast easy pips
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
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