I am going to post my trades for the purpose of self examination. Drop me a line if you have any questions.
Trades are mostly during the London exclusive trading period (unless there is sufficient volume) and operate on a MT timeframe with an initial TP of around 100 pips.
Dont follow my trades. Learn to do it yourself....you know the old teach a man to fish cliche.
EDIT EDIT
I am making this post to answer several queries as to my trading. As you can see I wouldn’t advise anyone trying to copy.
My system (or more accurately process) is highly discretionary and almost impossible to nail down and is far from automated. It is neither original or revolutionary but it works for me! I rely on flexibility because the market is an ever adapting beast. It is largely built on experience, although the discretion MUST operate within certain technical parameters.
There is a lot to cover so forgive me if I am obtuse or I miss something obvious. It is not a case of do this do that and here is your result. It is involved.
GBP/JPY specifically
First I check context of my trading:
1) Technically:
a) Assess overall bias (not just a direction but turning points etc) from daily chart with modified QQE DMI and ADX, trendlines, support and resistance manually drawn (looking in particular for identified ranges, critical levels, possible reversal areas, QQE cross, confirmation from DMI, overbought/oversold status).
b) Check the 4hr chart for the same; if it backs up the daily chart I am even more confident of my technical bias.
c) Assess and determine what needs to happen in order to make technical bias assessment incorrect and re-examine bias.
2) Fundamentally:
a) Assess the relative sentiment for the individual components of the currency pairs. For GBP/JPY this will include pound yen and us dollar
b) Assess whether any of the pairs are over or undervalued in the context of their equity markets and overall strength of economy.
c) Assess the likely impact of news (direction and magnitude ie for instance the not so secret AFP/NFP correlation) and if and when I want to be out of trades (ie when news is unpredictable (which is usual) and has potential to change fundamental sentiment in mid term (which is unusual) I will not have open trades).
d) Assess whether my fundamental outlook is in line with or contrary to technical bias (again if both in line this leads to greater confidence in the analysis).
After going through the above I have my foundation. It is now time to assess trading opportunities within that background.
I trade entries on the 5m/15m charts. This is highly dangerous and I don’t recommend it.
I have two particular trade set ups. The first is indicator based and sees entry on fulfillment of certain criteria. The second is S/R break/failure based.
Indicator Trade:
1) Entry: With the daily bias in mind, I will take QQE crosses at market price that are confirmed with a clear DMI superiority (over at least 20) and ADX also over 20. (Note I am aware that I am doubling up on similar indicators here but I like the confirmation). My 5/15 minute charts are also plotted with Ichi and Gann line for confirmation. I wont take trades close (20-30 pips) to (without closed breaking) major S/R levels or close to top of ranges for long, bottom for shorts etc. I will get into a trade if it breaks these levels within 2-3 bars of the signal.
2) Contingent Orders: GBP/JPY usually waves in 100-150 pips. If I have properly entered at the bottom of a range or in the beginning of a move/breakout then it will easily hit my target of around 100-150 pips with patience. I determine T/P by way of volatility and next major historical S/R levels but should normally be in the 100-150 range. I will usually place the T/P 5 pips before the price gets to a S/R level OR at a round number (currencies love round numbers like .00). Similarly I place the S/L 5 pips below/above an S/R level about 100 pips away. If it gets this far away from entry my entry analysis was wrong anyway and its time to move onto the next trade.
3) Trailing Stop: I will place a trailing stop of around 50-70 pips, depending on volatility once I am around 40-50 pips ahead in the trade (or if I go to sleep) or if volume drops off I will just place it at B/E at let it play out.
4) Exit: At T/P, B/E, Trailing Stop or SL, whichever is in play and gets hit first.
S/R Trade:
1) Entry: I will identify certain levels on the daily that I see as critical levels, ie where price has previously failed to breach. When price reaches these levels I will watch intently to see whether there is a confirmed breach or failure at these levels and trade either the bounce or the break. Because of the high potential for head fakes and multiple attempts at breaching (and the resulting whipsawing), I have strict S/L for these trades and tend to protect my profits when they are on the table. For the MAJOR S:R levels I place limit/stop entry orders just beyond the S:R level so that I catch any confirmed breakout.
2) Contingent Orders: see above
3) Trailing Stop: see above
4) Exit: see above
General Comments:
My practice is to attempt to, like the cliché, buy at my estimation of low and sell at my estimation of high. I don’t like to trade on divergences and patterns in isolation, however they can be useful for confirmation.
I hope that answers your questions.
Trades are mostly during the London exclusive trading period (unless there is sufficient volume) and operate on a MT timeframe with an initial TP of around 100 pips.
Dont follow my trades. Learn to do it yourself....you know the old teach a man to fish cliche.
EDIT EDIT
I am making this post to answer several queries as to my trading. As you can see I wouldn’t advise anyone trying to copy.
My system (or more accurately process) is highly discretionary and almost impossible to nail down and is far from automated. It is neither original or revolutionary but it works for me! I rely on flexibility because the market is an ever adapting beast. It is largely built on experience, although the discretion MUST operate within certain technical parameters.
There is a lot to cover so forgive me if I am obtuse or I miss something obvious. It is not a case of do this do that and here is your result. It is involved.
GBP/JPY specifically
First I check context of my trading:
1) Technically:
a) Assess overall bias (not just a direction but turning points etc) from daily chart with modified QQE DMI and ADX, trendlines, support and resistance manually drawn (looking in particular for identified ranges, critical levels, possible reversal areas, QQE cross, confirmation from DMI, overbought/oversold status).
b) Check the 4hr chart for the same; if it backs up the daily chart I am even more confident of my technical bias.
c) Assess and determine what needs to happen in order to make technical bias assessment incorrect and re-examine bias.
2) Fundamentally:
a) Assess the relative sentiment for the individual components of the currency pairs. For GBP/JPY this will include pound yen and us dollar
b) Assess whether any of the pairs are over or undervalued in the context of their equity markets and overall strength of economy.
c) Assess the likely impact of news (direction and magnitude ie for instance the not so secret AFP/NFP correlation) and if and when I want to be out of trades (ie when news is unpredictable (which is usual) and has potential to change fundamental sentiment in mid term (which is unusual) I will not have open trades).
d) Assess whether my fundamental outlook is in line with or contrary to technical bias (again if both in line this leads to greater confidence in the analysis).
After going through the above I have my foundation. It is now time to assess trading opportunities within that background.
I trade entries on the 5m/15m charts. This is highly dangerous and I don’t recommend it.
I have two particular trade set ups. The first is indicator based and sees entry on fulfillment of certain criteria. The second is S/R break/failure based.
Indicator Trade:
1) Entry: With the daily bias in mind, I will take QQE crosses at market price that are confirmed with a clear DMI superiority (over at least 20) and ADX also over 20. (Note I am aware that I am doubling up on similar indicators here but I like the confirmation). My 5/15 minute charts are also plotted with Ichi and Gann line for confirmation. I wont take trades close (20-30 pips) to (without closed breaking) major S/R levels or close to top of ranges for long, bottom for shorts etc. I will get into a trade if it breaks these levels within 2-3 bars of the signal.
2) Contingent Orders: GBP/JPY usually waves in 100-150 pips. If I have properly entered at the bottom of a range or in the beginning of a move/breakout then it will easily hit my target of around 100-150 pips with patience. I determine T/P by way of volatility and next major historical S/R levels but should normally be in the 100-150 range. I will usually place the T/P 5 pips before the price gets to a S/R level OR at a round number (currencies love round numbers like .00). Similarly I place the S/L 5 pips below/above an S/R level about 100 pips away. If it gets this far away from entry my entry analysis was wrong anyway and its time to move onto the next trade.
3) Trailing Stop: I will place a trailing stop of around 50-70 pips, depending on volatility once I am around 40-50 pips ahead in the trade (or if I go to sleep) or if volume drops off I will just place it at B/E at let it play out.
4) Exit: At T/P, B/E, Trailing Stop or SL, whichever is in play and gets hit first.
S/R Trade:
1) Entry: I will identify certain levels on the daily that I see as critical levels, ie where price has previously failed to breach. When price reaches these levels I will watch intently to see whether there is a confirmed breach or failure at these levels and trade either the bounce or the break. Because of the high potential for head fakes and multiple attempts at breaching (and the resulting whipsawing), I have strict S/L for these trades and tend to protect my profits when they are on the table. For the MAJOR S:R levels I place limit/stop entry orders just beyond the S:R level so that I catch any confirmed breakout.
2) Contingent Orders: see above
3) Trailing Stop: see above
4) Exit: see above
General Comments:
My practice is to attempt to, like the cliché, buy at my estimation of low and sell at my estimation of high. I don’t like to trade on divergences and patterns in isolation, however they can be useful for confirmation.
I hope that answers your questions.
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
