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RSI Daily Pivot Point System v2.0

  • #81
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:49pm Jan 23, 2007 8:49pm
Hey All,

I entered 3 trades today...
I am long EUR/USD, entered 8am at 1.303.
I doubled up EUR/USD at 9am at 1.302.
I am short USD/CHF at 7pm at 1.242.

Each trade is 5000 units on Oanda.

I think we all are seeing the same stuff.

Thanks Kevin and all the other posters.
  • #82
  • Edited 9:10pm Jan 23, 2007 9:08pm | Edited 9:10pm
Good job guys! I'm going to have to do another long one here, to acknowledge everyone, and also something CRAZY has happened to AUD/JPY in the past 2 hours or so!

Quoting RandyG67
Alright,

In Long on EUR at 1.3027 and Short on CHF at 1.2422

I'm new to FOREX and the first book I bought (thus the first indicator I started learning) was on Bollinger Bands. I've learned a bit about how to spot BB setups and trends when used in conjunction with the MFI Indicator. I spent this afternoon hawking over the BB setup for these two trades that have shown themselves as Daily Pivot plays.

I'm pretty confident that the BB's confirm both of these entries though, FWIW, I feel more confident about the EUR Long position. Again, this is from my evolving education in interpreting the Bollinger Band signals.

This should make for a great learning experience.

Good luck to us all,
Randy
Good luck Randy! And that's awesome that the BB confirmed your trades! Confidence is key in all your trades!

Quote
Hi Kevin,

As per current GBPUSD chart shown below, did I encircled the correct pivot points? Thanks for your help. Much appreciated.

Trying to learn one step at a time.

Wally

Hi wally
What both Randy and Yen say are mostly true! Combine the two and this is what I would have said! Let me just give it to you again in a sudo combination:

First #1 is a pivot! Good job! Since it is a low pivot, we look at the HIGH'S, The next day increases, but the following day does NOT AND it breaks the LOW of the high there. SO day after #1 is a high pivot like Yen said. We then look at LOWS. #2 has a lower low and that is it in our series of watching lows. The day after #2 breaks above the HIGH of #2. #2 is NOW a pivot(You see this too Randy? ) It is a LOW pivot, so we look at HIGH's now. The high's keep going up, and even when they don't, they never break the low of the previous high. So notice #3. Even though the high of the next day wasn't above #3, it didn't go below the low of #3, so it is not a pivot point yet. I hope this all makes sense! It's confusing with all the numbers...

Quote
It looks like we have a short developing on aud/usd. Yesterday was a pivot high and todays candle has passed through the low of yesterday. RSI is below 50. I think we are supposed to wait until the end of the day tomorrow before we enter a trade. I think you could also have entered when the magic number of 7877 was broken. IIf you had entered you would be up about 43 pips by now. hope this is a proper analysis.

You are getting the idea! My Oanda charts, unfortunately show the HIGH being today at .7938, making today the potential high pivot, and tomorrow the entry day. If your chart shows that yesterday was the high pivot, and the magic # is broken with confirming RSI, ENTER NOW! If you are going to follow my system, and it is giving you all the right signs, then act on it! This is only if your bar is close to closing. My close on my bars is 11pm CST and yours are probably something else, so act on your time frame.

Quote
Hey All,

I entered 3 trades today...
I am long EUR/USD, entered 8am at 1.303.
I doubled up EUR/USD at 9am at 1.302.
I am short USD/CHF at 7pm at 1.242.

Each trade is 5000 units on Oanda.

I think we all are seeing the same stuff.

Thanks Kevin and all the other posters.

Hey Piece of the Pie,
Thanks for sharing your trades! Did you double up on your EUR/USD because you thought your position was too small?

GOOD LUCK!

OK, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are very similar, and both got SLAUGHTERED in the past 2 hours. Man, did I get stopped out bad! I'm about 80% sure AUD/JPY will be an entry day on the short side given this huge drawdown today.

So, with that being said, I have another closed trade:

Long AUD/JPY @ 94.87 STOPPED OUT @ 95.32 = 45 pips


My current trades:

Long GBP/USD @ 1.9643 S/L 1.9712 = 173 pips
Long USD/JPY @ 120.68 S/L 121.07 = 90 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2526 = -5 pips

Net Unrealized pips: 258 pips
Realized this week: -69 + 45 = -24 pips
  • #83
  • Jan 23, 2007 9:31pm Jan 23, 2007 9:31pm
Kevin,

Doubled up as my confidence increased. I will probably lock in profits at 40-60 for one position, and let the other position ride.
  • #84
  • Edited 10:20pm Jan 23, 2007 10:14pm | Edited 10:20pm
Ok guys,
I am placing a sell ORDER for AUD/JPY @ 95.12

Short AUD/JPY
Date/Time: January 24, 2007 Time: Undetermined
Price: 95.12
S/L: 96.12
Reason:
On January 23rd, a high pivot will potentially form. The high of this day is ~96.43 and the low is ~95.16. Today(Jan 24th) will more likely than go below the low of 95.16 since the 23rd's close is extremely close to the low. The chances of it surpassing the high of 96.43 are very unlikely. This is that discretion I was talking about. We'll see what happens. The RSI is flirting with 60, but a break in my magic number of 96.12 would bring it below 60.

Cheers,
Kevin
  • #85
  • Edited Jan 24, 2007 3:21am Jan 23, 2007 11:28pm | Edited Jan 24, 2007 3:21am
Randy, Yen, Kevin,

Thanks heaps for the explanation! Now it's all clear to me...Next step is making sure that I'm looking correctly at the RSI.

Cheers,
Wally

edit:

I guess it's not that clear yet to me due to my next post...
  • #86
  • Jan 24, 2007 3:20am Jan 24, 2007 3:20am
Another question... in the same chart below, let's consider the first encircled candle from the right. Is this already considered a pivot while the current candle is still forming? Can we trade it if the current candle breaks the low of this encircled candle?

Sorry guys if I sound slow here...Just making sure that I'll be entering the trade the right time as per this method...

http://img11.picsplace.to/img10/22/gbpusd.png
  • #87
  • Jan 24, 2007 6:26am Jan 24, 2007 6:26am
Good Morning Wally,

You're very close to having this thing down!

With what the chart is telling you right now you have a potential pivot (though it is looking pretty good). What needs to happen now is for price to move down thru the low of the circled candle (identified as #4 in the previous post) AND the RSI to nosedive per the rules in Kevein's first post of this thread. And remember, to enter a short Daily Pivot trade on this #4 candle, price needs to move down thru it's low side (with RSI confirmation) within three days. Otherwise, wait for the next formation.

Quote
Is this already considered a pivot while the current candle is still forming?

By the time this current candle completes, it may stop well short of breaking through the low of our #4 candle. Then we look (wait) for the next day's candle and see if it breaks down through the low of good 'ol #4. If it does (with RSI confirmation), reach for your money. Heck it may break through the top of our #4 candle and then it would become our potential pivot (depending on what the successive candles and the RSI do).

Randy
  • #88
  • Edited 8:12am Jan 24, 2007 8:09am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting RandyG67
Good Morning Wally,

You're very close to having this thing down!

With what the chart is telling you right now you have a potential pivot (though it is looking pretty good). What needs to happen now is for price to move down thru the low of the circled candle (identified as #4 in the previous post) AND the RSI to nosedive per the rules in Kevein's first post of this thread. And remember, to enter a short Daily Pivot trade on this #4 candle, price needs to move down thru it's low side (with RSI confirmation) within three days. Otherwise, wait for the next formation.



By the time this current candle completes, it may stop well short of breaking through the low of our #4 candle. Then we look (wait) for the next day's candle and see if it breaks down through the low of good 'ol #4. If it does (with RSI confirmation), reach for your money. Heck it may break through the top of our #4 candle and then it would become our potential pivot (depending on what the successive candles and the RSI do).

Randy
What Randy said! Thanks for being so helpful Randy!


Well then...

This week is stopping me out left and right. Not sure if it's one of those "crazy" weeks or a lot of pairs are reversing. Looks as though our USD/CHF trade isn't doing so well , but the day is still young.. I still kind of think that US is just fighting back a bit, but will ultimately lose. It could just be that we have a loser. Only time will tell.


Here are the rest of my 2 stopped out trades:

Long GBP/USD @ 1.9643 STOPPED OUT 1.9712 = 69 pips
Long USD/JPY @ 120.68 STOPPED OUT 121.07 = 39 pips

Total Realized pips this week = -69 + 45 + 69 +39 = 84 pips


My current trades:

Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 96.12 = 36 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2569 = - 48 pips
Net Unrealized pips = -12 pips



Trades to consider:
Short GBP/USD, Once the RSI goes below 50
Short USD/JPY, maybe in 2 days or so when RSI looks better

Good luck,

Kevin
  • #89
  • Jan 24, 2007 9:16am Jan 24, 2007 9:16am
You probably realize this, but I think it is still worth pointing out. Long EUR/USD is 95% the same trade as short USD/CHF as EUR and CHF have an almost exact correlation most of the time. The exception would be in times of greater world economic uncertainty (i.e. monetary crisis, terror, etc). In those cases the CHF will fare better than than the EUR as the Swiss still have a relatively large percentage of their currency backed by gold.

That is why an awareness of currency correlations are an important part of risk management.

All the best,

Michael


Quoting Piece Of The Pie
Hey All,

I entered 3 trades today...
I am long EUR/USD, entered 8am at 1.303.
I doubled up EUR/USD at 9am at 1.302.
I am short USD/CHF at 7pm at 1.242.

Each trade is 5000 units on Oanda.

I think we all are seeing the same stuff.

Thanks Kevin and all the other posters.
Michael fxgorilla
  • #90
  • Jan 24, 2007 9:33am Jan 24, 2007 9:33am
Quoting fxgorilla
You probably realize this, but I think it is still worth pointing out. Long EUR/USD is 95% the same trade as short USD/CHF as EUR and CHF have an almost exact correlation most of the time. The exception would be in times of greater world economic uncertainty (i.e. monetary crisis, terror, etc). In those cases the CHF will fare better than than the EUR as the Swiss still have a relatively large percentage of their currency backed by gold.

That is why an awareness of currency correlations are an important part of risk management.

All the best,

Michael
I have a friend, who at one point only traded the EUR/USD. He would take the opposite trade in the USD/CHF to double his wins (or losses).

Very good point fxgorilla.............
  • #91
  • Jan 24, 2007 9:48am Jan 24, 2007 9:48am
Hkarvell,

Would you look at the attached and tell me if it was a good trade? Thanks
Dave
Attached Image
  • #92
  • Jan 24, 2007 10:15am Jan 24, 2007 10:15am
Quoting davpaula
Hkarvell,

Would you look at the attached and tell me if it was a good trade? Thanks
Dave
Dave,

You might want to take a look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=88 where Kevin refers to this potential trade.

RSI still needs to drop below 60.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #93
  • Jan 24, 2007 10:18am Jan 24, 2007 10:18am
Thank you.
Dave
Quoting yen44x
Dave,

You might want to take a look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=88 where Kevin refers to this potential trade.

RSI still needs to drop below 60.
  • #94
  • Jan 24, 2007 11:59am Jan 24, 2007 11:59am
Kevin,

I'd appreciate your thoughts on the current AUD/JPY short trade for those of us in it. Your standard rules state the stop loss would be at the high of the current candle when it completes.

However, this candle is so large that I'm assuming you would probably just adjust the stop loss at the end of the trading day to 100 pips above the closing price.

Is that how you would handle it?

Thanks!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #95
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:05pm Jan 24, 2007 2:05pm
Thank you very much for all the work you've put into this system and sharing it with us.I was wondering why you don't trade the EUR/USD.Is it because the USD/CHF is more volitile? Are you still waiting for the close of candle or on a day like today in the GBP/USD did you sell at the magic number which I see is around 1.9762? thanks again
  • #96
  • Jan 24, 2007 3:27pm Jan 24, 2007 3:27pm
Hi, Kevin

Spent all day looking at your thread and style. Looks pretty impresive. Just have one question. I looked at the daily cable and researched the last 8 trades according to your method. 5 out of 8 made very nice profit. Very nice odds. Actually, the other 3, according to your RSI not to get in rule would have been nice trades also. The other 3 where close to the proper RSI, but according to your rules to stay out would have costed a good deal of pips. Do you you have an exception to the rule when it comes to the RSI? So, according to your rules you would have hit 5 out of 5. And, the last one would have netted 350 pips. VERY VERY NICE!!
Thank you for your time.
  • #97
  • Edited 4:16pm Jan 24, 2007 3:56pm | Edited 4:16pm
Lots of posts! = LONG RESPONSE

Quoting fxgorilla
You probably realize this, but I think it is still worth pointing out. Long EUR/USD is 95% the same trade as short USD/CHF as EUR and CHF have an almost exact correlation most of the time. The exception would be in times of greater world economic uncertainty (i.e. monetary crisis, terror, etc). In those cases the CHF will fare better than than the EUR as the Swiss still have a relatively large percentage of their currency backed by gold.

That is why an awareness of currency correlations are an important part of risk management.

All the best,

Michael
Michael,
You make a great point. I'm surprised I overlooked this when Piece of the Pie told me about it. Well, Piece of the Pie, you are in a sticky situation, but it might just turn out OK. I'm still clinging to the hope that USD/CHF will go down..

Quote
Dave,

You might want to take a look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=88 where Kevin refers to this potential trade.

RSI still needs to drop below 60.

I second that. It may happen tomorrow, but if not, more than likely the next day.

Quote
Kevin,

I'd appreciate your thoughts on the current AUD/JPY short trade for those of us in it. Your standard rules state the stop loss would be at the high of the current candle when it completes.

However, this candle is so large that I'm assuming you would probably just adjust the stop loss at the end of the trading day to 100 pips above the closing price.

Is that how you would handle it?

Thanks!

Hmm.. Well it looks as though the AUD/JPY candle is shrinking back. I think no matter what, I would use the candle the day before, even if it was 150 pips. If it's that many pips of a candle, then it's more than likely trending. I would rather be in a trade until it finally says I'm wrong than guarantee myself 50 extra pips. That's just me though. It seems risky, but it guarantees that I'm wrong, so I won't be wondering "what if" I had stayed in that trade.

Quote
Thank you very much for all the work you've put into this system and sharing it with us.I was wondering why you don't trade the EUR/USD.Is it because the USD/CHF is more volitile? Are you still waiting for the close of candle or on a day like today in the GBP/USD did you sell at the magic number which I see is around 1.9762? thanks again

Good questions! I don't trade EUR/USD because it's not THAT volatile as opposed to USD/CHF which is relatively volatile. So I would be risking 100 pips for less gains more than likely.

As far as GBP/USD goes, today's candle does indicate a passing of the magic number thus making Jan 23rd a pivot, BUT my RSI is reading at a 52.92 which is above 50. You might be thinking that since it is below 60 it's good, but since it did not come from 70, it is not. At any rate, RSI will probably confirm below 50 tomorrow or the next day, and we will go in on the short side.

Oh, and you're welcome

Quote
Hi, Kevin

Spent all day looking at your thread and style. Looks pretty impresive. Just have one question. I looked at the daily cable and researched the last 8 trades according to your method. 5 out of 8 made very nice profit. Very nice odds. Actually, the other 3, according to your RSI not to get in rule would have been nice trades also. The other 3 where close to the proper RSI, but according to your rules to stay out would have costed a good deal of pips. Do you you have an exception to the rule when it comes to the RSI? So, according to your rules you would have hit 5 out of 5. And, the last one would have netted 350 pips. VERY VERY NICE!!
Thank you for your time.

Hi broc,

My exceptions are based on my perceptions of the RSI and today's candle. If a candle looks strong, and is about to close, and I think it will go a place where my RSI will confirm, then I might pre-empt the trade. However, these are very vague exceptions, and are subject to change at my own discretion. You should follow the same style with my method. This should only be a framework with which you base your own opinions off of. From now on, if I use discretion, I will explain my thought process to you with my future trades. Hope this makes sense and good luck to you!


Alright guys,
USD/CHF is being a stubborn SOB, so I have decided to move my stop loss to yesterday's high of 1.2511+3 which is 1.2514. I have also placed a buy order at this number with a S/L of 1.414. My logic behind this is because if these numbers are broken, Yesterday becomes a low pivot point and the RSI would confirm above 50 with a positive slope. This order will only last for the remainder of today.

Still waiting on the RSI'S of GBP/USD and USD/JPY to confirm, but I do see the pivots.

My trades:

Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 96.12 = 44 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2514 = - 56 pips

Net Unrealized pips: -12 pips


Good luck!

PS Thanks for the favorable reviews of my thread to the 2 that rated it!
  • #98
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:29pm Jan 24, 2007 4:29pm
Just an opinion. Since i am new at your style. I see a long position in the swissy due to the rsi being over 50 and the previous red candle at a pivot. I have a entry at 2535, due to a major resistance level at 2530 and a S/L at 2370. Insight shows that this is a temporary pull back from the previous up trend, and should continue up due to the price action not breaking below 2380, previous support. I try to trade every trade as if im not actually in it and have a non bias look and opinion. Please give me your feedback. Thank you.
  • #99
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:40pm Jan 24, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting broc0501
Just an opinion. Since i am new at your style. I see a long position in the swissy due to the rsi being over 50 and the previous red candle at a pivot. I have a entry at 2535, due to a major resistance level at 2530 and a S/L at 2370. Insight shows that this is a temporary pull back from the previous up trend, and should continue up due to the price action not breaking below 2380, previous support. I try to trade every trade as if im not actually in it and have a non bias look and opinion. Please give me your feedback. Thank you.
I wouldn't be so sure of an uptrend. In my opinion it could go either way. As you can see it has been at the 1.2470 level for about 2 weeks, which indicates some major resistance after that impressive up trend. It appears that buyers and sellers have been fighting each other for quite a while and yesterday's push out of 1.2470 might signify something to us. It could be one last hurrah for sellers, but I wouldn't be too quick to say that it's long for sure. As you and I both know, you cannot predict the market, no matter how hard you try, but you can take some damn good guesses. I will keep using my system, even if I get stopped out 3 times in a row.. This will eventually break out of the 1.2470 level, and I want to be a part of that.

Also, if you do decide to buy at 1.2520, why use such a big S/L of 1.2370? I'd hate to get spiked out and lose that many pips..

Thanks for your thoughts
  • #100
  • Jan 24, 2007 4:50pm Jan 24, 2007 4:50pm
Just used a s/l at 2530 due to your method of the low of the pivot candle. Please let me know if i have that wrong. And yes your right there is a major resist. at 2540 2530. The weekly does look overbought, but the daily does show some sign of room for more uptrend. The daily does show a triple top though. LOL. Just have to wait and see for next daly candle. The euro is also showing a current support lvl. If this follows where do you think i could possibly jump on the train when it starts. Thank you for your responces.
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