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RSI Daily Pivot Point System v2.0

  • #61
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:29am Jan 23, 2007 8:29am
Quoting RandyG67
Good Grief,

Here I am waiting to hop on a pivot and it rockets thru an entry while I'm asleep!

Looking for the next one.....

Randy
Randy,

You do not have to sell AT the magic number! I would wait until this afternoon, and hop on the bandwagon!

Better late than never,
Kevin

Quote
Hi,

two points, we can consider more risky

a) start a trade on friday close (we have a magic number passed and RSI on conditions) - if this is not placed on friday the next entry will be just monday close

There are a lot worse things than placing a Friday trade. I would say if it qualifies, to go for it. Just don't be surprised if it loses.

b) place a entry order (on magic number) when the candle passed the magic number BUT retraced and closed above (pivot high) or below it (pivot low)

This is risky unless you know what you are doing.
Always checking once a day the system.
You only HAVE to check once a day, it's your choice what you actually do.
What you think?
  • #62
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:45am Jan 23, 2007 8:45am
Quote
You do not have to sell AT the magic number!

You know, I just realized this after reading the new posts since mine. As you discussed your strategy for later today it became clear that I was turning the Magic number into the mortgage-your-house-and-sell-your-kids number!!

And actually, in the back of my mind, I knew better. Thanks for snapping me back.

Randy
  • #63
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:18am Jan 23, 2007 10:18am
Hi Kevin

Have you started your plan to use AIM with your friend?
Regards
  • #64
  • Edited 10:41am Jan 23, 2007 10:40am | Edited 10:41am
Right now the EUR RSI is at 53.xxx and price is above the magic number established by the 1-18-07 bar. Anyone taking this?

Randy
  • #65
  • Jan 23, 2007 10:57am Jan 23, 2007 10:57am
Kevin,
I used the Parabolic Sar to show me the trend. It does lag a bit however I use entry orders on the tops of daily bars to get in on an up trend and on the bottom sides of down trends.
So I wasn't in the market when I went to bed but woke up with huge gains.

Since I only get in on the side of the trend I was not entered in the usd/chf so I did not get kicked out for a loss. (I did have an entry on the bottom side that was untouched)

The Parabolic does lag but once you understand how it works you can "see" ahead of it and get a sense of the coming change.

It may not be as acurate as the RSI but I prefer using entry orders to enter the market so I only have to "check in" once or twice a day.
  • #66
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:05pm Jan 23, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting RandyG67
Right now the EUR RSI is at 53.xxx and price is above the magic number established by the 1-18-07 bar. Anyone taking this?

Randy
I waited for a retrace to 1.3010 and entered there.

Are you in?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #67
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:12pm Jan 23, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting FiboFan
Kevin,
I used the Parabolic Sar to show me the trend. It does lag a bit however I use entry orders on the tops of daily bars to get in on an up trend and on the bottom sides of down trends.
So I wasn't in the market when I went to bed but woke up with huge gains.

Since I only get in on the side of the trend I was not entered in the usd/chf so I did not get kicked out for a loss. (I did have an entry on the bottom side that was untouched)

The Parabolic does lag but once you understand how it works you can "see" ahead of it and get a sense of the coming change.

It may not be as accurate as the RSI but I prefer using entry orders to enter the market so I only have to "check in" once or twice a day.
I'm a fan of Parabolic for trend identification but was a bit confused on your statement regarding USD/CHF . . . how was your entry on the bottom side untouched? Price slid well below the "magic" number today, so perhaps I'm not understanding what you mean.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #68
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:19pm Jan 23, 2007 1:19pm
Sorry, I was thinking of the euro. With the USD/CHF my entry was on top since that was the direction of the trend previously, so after it fell today I sustained no loss because my entry wasn't hit.
Although I'll be waiting for it if it retraces over the next few days.
  • #69
  • Jan 23, 2007 1:22pm Jan 23, 2007 1:22pm
Quote
Are you in?

No. Stepped away from coputer for awhile and came back to see the RSI fell off a bit from 53. That uncertainty (that it would establish itself solidly above 50), combined with reading about how Kevin preferred to wait until later in the day to evaluate his decisions kept me out right now.

What's the take here for the yay/nay regarding this decision? Too paranoid?

Randy
  • #70
  • Edited 2:51pm Jan 23, 2007 1:46pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting RandyG67
No. Stepped away from coputer for awhile and came back to see the RSI fell off a bit from 53. That uncertainty (that it would establish itself solidly above 50), combined with reading about how Kevin preferred to wait until later in the day to evaluate his decisions kept me out right now.

What's the take here for the yay/nay regarding this decision? Too paranoid?

Randy
Kevin can probably best answer that since he developed the system. I'm new to this method, but here's what I saw:
1. Price moved past the "magic number".
2. Lows over the past few days have been climbing slowly.
3. The candle today was very strong, and move well past the range of the past few days.
4. RSI, at least from my server, is hanging solidly in the 52+ range.

You're correct that Kevin said he usually waits until the end of the day to make trade decisions, but he also mentioned that discretion is involved in regard on pulling the trigger on a trade. Anyway, with all that said, those factors were enough to get me in the trade, and now time will tell.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #71
  • Edited 4:34pm Jan 23, 2007 4:22pm | Edited 4:34pm
Hey guys,

You are all having some great discussions! I will try to include my opinion on everyone's post(This will be a long one )

Quoting howard
Hi Kevin

Have you started your plan to use AIM with your friend?
Yes, I have.. I will be online on the days I do not work more than likely. I will also try to be online after my classes which end at around 9-10pm CST every night.

Quote
Kevin,
I used the Parabolic Sar to show me the trend. It does lag a bit however I use entry orders on the tops of daily bars to get in on an up trend and on the bottom sides of down trends.
So I wasn't in the market when I went to bed but woke up with huge gains.

Since I only get in on the side of the trend I was not entered in the usd/chf so I did not get kicked out for a loss. (I did have an entry on the bottom side that was untouched)

The Parabolic does lag but once you understand how it works you can "see" ahead of it and get a sense of the coming change.

It may not be as acurate as the RSI but I prefer using entry orders to enter the market so I only have to "check in" once or twice a day.

When you get a chance, could you post a graph showing how it is used? I find P SAR to be inaccurate as far as complementing it with my system. It seems that if you are using it only for trends, I could just eye a chart and probably get the same indications. I did try some backtesting using it, and I wasn't too impressed. It may just be that my knowledge of it is limited. Thanks.

Quote
No. Stepped away from coputer for awhile and came back to see the RSI fell off a bit from 53. That uncertainty (that it would establish itself solidly above 50), combined with reading about how Kevin preferred to wait until later in the day to evaluate his decisions kept me out right now.

What's the take here for the yay/nay regarding this decision? Too paranoid?

Randy

Randy,

Given the strength of today's bar in EUR/USD, and the fact that I have read some news about the dollar weakening, I would certainly take this trade. It is "close enough" as I would say. Now would be a good time to buy because it is retracing, and more than likely will head up for the rest of the week(hopefully!)

Quote
Kevin can probably best answer that since he developed the system. I'm new to this method, but here's what I saw:
1. Price moved past the "magic number".
2. Lows over the past few days have been climbing slowly.
3. The candle today was very strong, and move well past the range of the past few days.
4. RSI, at least from my server, is hanging solidly in the 52+ range.

You're correct that Kevin said he usually waits until the end of the day to make trade decisions, but he also mentioned that discretion is involved in regard on pulling the trigger on a trade. Anyway, with all that said, those factors were enough to get me in the trade, and now time will tell.

Good observations. My RSI is flirting with the 50, but I am endorsing this trade nonetheless. I won't enter it myself, but you guys have at it.

Note: this is not because I think it's a bad trade. Just because I only trade my 4 pairs.



Alright,
As far as USD/CHF goes, I have entered in short. You guys want details SO:

USD/CHF Short
Date/Time: January 3rd, 2007 16:03 CST
Price: 1.2423
S/L: 1.2526

Reason for entry:
USD/CHF is a sell today because on Jan 18th there is a high pivot with a high of ~1.2548 and a low of ~1.2429. Today the magic # which is 1.2426 was surpassed, and the RSI is confirming so far(FROM 70 past 60). It is about 4PM and that's close enough to the end of the day for me given the strength of the red bar. S/L was set at ~100 pips because it was lower than Jan 18th's high.


My trades:

Long GBP/USD @ 1.9643 S/L 1.9698 = 159 pips
Long AUD/JPY @ 94.87 S/L 95.32 = 141 pips
Long USD/JPY @ 120.68 S/L 121.07 = 98 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2526 = -10 pips

Net Unrealized pips: 388 pips

Good luck,
Kevin
  • #72
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:31pm Jan 23, 2007 5:31pm
I am also short chf. Went short at 1.2427 with the spread. Time was about 6:30 Eastern time. Kharvell do you only trade those 4 pairs because you have seen them to be the most volitile?
  • #73
  • Jan 23, 2007 6:08pm Jan 23, 2007 6:08pm
Quoting volcano
I am also short chf. Went short at 1.2427 with the spread. Time was about 6:30 Eastern time. Kharvell do you only trade those 4 pairs because you have seen them to be the most volitile?
I don't know about the MOST volatile, but certainly volatile. Pairs like GBP/JPY are a little too volatile for me. Although, Raphael who has been PMing me his results, has made 259 pips off of GBP/JPY using my system. I asked him to keep sending me his results so that I may decide whether I want to try to tame that volatility. There are a lot of pairs with about the same volatility of the pairs I use. On Oanda, there is a correlation chart, and I tried to pick pairs that they showed did NOT correlate. Also, I am most comfortable with these pairs because they are what I have backtested.

Good luck to you on your short trade! I hope we all make some pips with this one! And if we lose... well, here's to the next trade !

Kevin
  • #74
  • Jan 23, 2007 6:32pm Jan 23, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting kharvell
I don't know about the MOST volatile, but certainly volatile. Pairs like GBP/JPY are a little too volatile for me. Although, Raphael who has been PMing me his results, has made 259 pips off of GBP/JPY using my system. I asked him to keep sending me his results so that I may decide whether I want to try to tame that volatility. There are a lot of pairs with about the same volatility of the pairs I use. On Oanda, there is a correlation chart, and I tried to pick pairs that they showed did NOT correlate. Also, I am most comfortable with these pairs because they are what I have backtested.

Good luck to you on your short trade! I hope we all make some pips with this one! And if we lose... well, here's to the next trade !

Kevin
Since you've already done the back testing on the 4 pairs you trade, can you give me an idea of how many new trades you would have entered each week on average (for the 4 pairs combined)?

With a 100-pip or so stop loss, I want to give some thought to how many mini-lots to enter on each trade for risk management, and that info would be really helpful.

Thanks!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #75
  • Jan 23, 2007 6:40pm Jan 23, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting yen44x
Since you've already done the back testing on the 4 pairs you trade, can you give me an idea of how many new trades you would have entered each week on average (for the 4 pairs combined)?

With a 100-pip or so stop loss, I want to give some thought to how many mini-lots to enter on each trade for risk management, and that info would be really helpful.

Thanks!
Yen,

You always ask great questions! I unfortunately don't have specific details on the backtesting results for the other 3 pairs like I do for GBP/USD. I also have no idea how many trades would be PER week. This would be a vague number average, because in backtesting, some trades last for 3+ weeks while others last 2 days. When I get a good solid day or two, I will try to provide you with some specifics.

As far as money management goes, I have been using a 5% rule where I multiply my account by 5%, divide by 100(max pip loss I can have) and that is the value I want 1 pip to equal. So far, it's going rather well, but I haven't hit a losing streak yet

Kevin
  • #76
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:01pm Jan 23, 2007 7:01pm
Alright,

In Long on EUR at 1.3027 and Short on CHF at 1.2422

I'm new to FOREX and the first book I bought (thus the first indicator I started learning) was on Bollinger Bands. I've learned a bit about how to spot BB setups and trends when used in conjunction with the MFI Indicator. I spent this afternoon hawking over the BB setup for these two trades that have shown themselves as Daily Pivot plays.

I'm pretty confident that the BB's confirm both of these entries though, FWIW, I feel more confident about the EUR Long position. Again, this is from my evolving education in interpreting the Bollinger Band signals.

This should make for a great learning experience.

Good luck to us all,
Randy
  • #77
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:14pm Jan 23, 2007 7:14pm
Hi Kevin,

As per current GBPUSD chart shown below, did I encircled the correct pivot points? Thanks for your help. Much appreciated.

Trying to learn one step at a time.

Wally


http://img11.picsplace.to/img10/22/gbpusd.png
  • #78
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:36pm Jan 23, 2007 7:36pm
Hi Wally,

If I may step in here, I think I can help out.

If you number your circled candles 1-4 (going left-to-right), #1 is the only pivot point because it was the only one to be broken to the other side. i.e...It is a Low pivot and price has come back (pivoted) enough to break through it's high side + the spread.

The other three are potential pivots but never did price reverse (pivot) and come back down through their opposite side (the low side).

Look at the large red candle three candles to the left of your first circled candle. It is a pivot because it made a new high and then was broken thru it's opposite side.

Hope this helps as it is instructive to me to think thru this as well.

Cheers,
Randy
  • #79
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:57pm Jan 23, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting RandyG67
Hi Wally,

If I may step in here, I think I can help out.

If you number your circled candles 1-4 (going left-to-right), #1 is the only pivot point because it was the only one to be broken to the other side. i.e...It is a Low pivot and price has come back (pivoted) enough to break through it's high side + the spread.

The other three are potential pivots but never did price reverse (pivot) and come back down through their opposite side (the low side).

Look at the large red candle three candles to the left of your first circled candle. It is a pivot because it made a new high and then was broken thru it's opposite side.

Hope this helps as it is instructive to me to think thru this as well.

Cheers,
Randy
Just my 2 pips worth . . . pivot #1 (1/8) is correct. On the next day (1/9) a new high pivot is created and a Short trade formed the next day (1/10). Kevin refers to it in post #41.

The candle on 1/10 then formed a low pivot and a Long trade began on 1/11 or 1/12 depending on your RSI reading.

Now that we've all speculated, Kevin can clear it all up when he returns.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #80
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:35pm Jan 23, 2007 8:35pm
It looks like we have a short developing on aud/usd. Yesterday was a pivot high and todays candle has passed through the low of yesterday. RSI is below 50. I think we are supposed to wait until the end of the day tomorrow before we enter a trade. I think you could also have entered when the magic number of 7877 was broken. IIf you had entered you would be up about 43 pips by now. hope this is a proper analysis.
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