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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,141
  • Apr 20, 2008 6:10am Apr 20, 2008 6:10am
Hi guys, i am back from a really hectic schedule, these exams are killing me...lol!

anyways here is how i see my Gu charts...

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2.../dipshfg-2.gif

semicircles 1 and 2 show higher lows as the market trends up while 3 and 4 do'nt provide healthy news for the bulls...it's clearly evident that this last low (4) was'nt higher than the previous low (3)...

besides i can see a potential head and shoulders too, with the price dropping/gapping down on monday and possible consolidating somewhere around those red indiciated zig zag lines and then finally a break of the uptrend support line should cause some nice short entries...all of this is ofcaorse just a possibility and i am not expecting it to happen 100%

then this recent consolidation...during active times in the market indicated by the long green bars on the main chart and on the volumes indicator too suggests that everytime acitivity increased it resulted in more ppl buying than selling but this recent increased acitivity (indicated by semicircle 5) did not result in such an event, infact the 15 min Tf reveals we have been into some sort of a consolidation for the last few hourly bars before the weekly close...hmm signs of bull exhaustion??

and by the way any immeditae bear pressure evident from a gap on the downside on monday or some nice bear movment is going to close my daily candle into a kind of a pin bar (with a long upper wick) which is 2 hours from close...further confirmation of a move down..

so in a nutshell i am expecting bearish monday, but let's see how it goes...

regards,
Ghous
I believe . . .
  • #62,142
  • Apr 20, 2008 6:29am Apr 20, 2008 6:29am
Great stuff Ghous you may just be right Im going to bear your plan in mind.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,143
  • Apr 20, 2008 6:32am Apr 20, 2008 6:32am
No pun intended with the “bear” thing ,lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,144
  • Apr 20, 2008 6:39am Apr 20, 2008 6:39am
Yes that’s it Nav only take the great looking trades with confluence. Mind you its easier said than done.
There was a few problems’ with them shorts as there was no PA to suggest it would fall after the touch +Price had only just been up to it a couple of days prior. I would have taken the TL touch short if I could have seen it but kept it really tight.
I was honestly expecting it to break but was not expecting it to carry on so far and was looking to enter long on the retest of the top of the TL.
The R1 won’t be in the same place so there is less resistance around the monthly and I see 2.0050 as the next res after. If we take out that previous high it could clear the path to the next at 2.0191.
I still think the bullishness comes from the BoE securities exchange plans to help money flow.
My view of the Market right now is mixed with a leniency to the upside.

Quoting nAVIN2007
well said tone ...its about knowledge, i been reading stuff and have realised i lost becuase of myself, knowledge is relative and we all think we know enough till we make mistakes and then go back to the drawing board..then we realise man we basically didnt know what he hell was going on ..

read , read and read..I have been entering trades thou am im improving but entered trades without confluence, that why i went wrong and to be honest every1 else shorted too so i think this was the main problem...we got caught and yet direction could go either way ..

I shall join use lot with the champs ..one day ...lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,145
  • Apr 20, 2008 6:55am Apr 20, 2008 6:55am
Quoting Bones
Yes that’s it Nav only take the great looking trades with confluence. Mind you its easier said than done.
There was a few problems’ with them shorts as there was no PA to suggest it would fall after the touch +Price had only just been up to it a couple of days prior. I would have taken the TL touch short if I could have seen it but kept it really tight.
I was honestly expecting it to break but was not expecting it to carry on so far and was looking to enter long on the retest of the top of the TL.
The R1 won’t be in the same place so there is less resistance around the monthly and I see 2.0050 as the next res after. If we take out that previous high it could clear the path to the next at 2.0191.
I still think the bullishness comes from the BoE securities exchange plans to help money flow.
My view of the Market right now is mixed with a leniency to the upside.
good assessment buddy ....i been looking into a bit more technical analysis, need to look into my chart and gain more info, i feel like a twit to be honest as i really havent been applying my knowledge in live trading...

we currently in a uptrend movement have encountered a series of flags and now in a accesending triangle ...looking for breakout toward direction of previous trend (up) then will be a good trade for up ....yes good point bout r1 maybe thats why we never moved up yet ..but 2.0040 is where it can go wrong ...the indecision scare me on monthly chart but i think the 1 hr chart is great, it gives a damn good picture of what can happen and must start using it a hell of a lot more....
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  • #62,146
  • Apr 20, 2008 7:30am Apr 20, 2008 7:30am
Nav that looks great.
Yea ive found the hourly to be good at pin pointing entry .The thing about the hourly is everyone’s look the same.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,147
  • Apr 20, 2008 7:36am Apr 20, 2008 7:36am
We have got some housing data tonight which may not be good though.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,148
  • Apr 20, 2008 7:46am Apr 20, 2008 7:46am
Housing data for who? I haven't seen anything about that.
  • #62,149
  • Apr 20, 2008 7:48am Apr 20, 2008 7:48am
Quoting Bones
We have got some housing data tonight which may not be good though.

It really is very tricky, technically short term 2.0050 should hit but i really have no idea as to the falling wedge, this patterns on daily i dunno if they play out...also its so decretionary as to what actually quantifies as a falling wedge...

i will have to look into it ..but the daily is bullish only thing is we at a trendline and bounce can happen also at a fib level ..keep it tight buddy ...
  • #62,150
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:09am Apr 20, 2008 8:09am
Quoting DeePipster
Housing data for who? I haven't seen anything about that.
23:01 GBPhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gifRightmove House Price Index m/m
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif
0.8%
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,151
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:21am Apr 20, 2008 8:21am
Well I must admit I was questioning myself on that falling wedge, you know if it was valid.
This guy has noticed it to and he is also watching for a potential H+S on the weekly.
http://www.pfxglobal.com/gbp-usd/gbp...ing.html#video
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,152
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:35am Apr 20, 2008 8:35am
Hey all, heres my 2 cents, maybe we can use it to find some direction...... On chart #1, the weekly chart, we have retraced all the way to the 76.1 fib level and you know what they say, 71.6 is a good place to buy, and this has shown true to form, however, that last candle pulled up short of becoming a bullish engulfer by just 5 pips, if you want to split hairs, I split them so Im gonna call it just that, a bullish engulfer. The 2nd chart, the Daily shows the fallen wedge has been broken to the up side as ordered, and is at some tough resistance in the form of an inside top from 4/4/08 and when you move to the 3rd chart you see some added res. in the form of a rouge upper trend line that has provided resistance and support in the past. There is also a bearish engulfer here on the 4 hr chart with kind of an inverted hammer. I am gonna say we will retrace to the .9800 level and test the back of this down trend line that forms he top of the wedge. Very rarely do they go on without testing and it would no surprise me if it heads that way at the open. So....Long overall but a short retracement first, any comments????

Jim
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  • #62,153
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:46am Apr 20, 2008 8:46am
my view on it is this ...either way i think it fits ...
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  • #62,154
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:48am Apr 20, 2008 8:48am
Ok guys, yu wart to talk 1 Hr charts, Huh? This is mine and it kind of bears out the short I promised right off the bat. There are several signs that this thing may come down 100 or so from looking at the 1 hr. Evening star, Tweezers, a break short out of the rising bearish wedge....Etc....

Jim
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  • #62,155
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:52am Apr 20, 2008 8:52am
Yea Nav, I agree with the long term direction, but I do think it needs to come back first.

Jim

Quoting nAVIN2007
my view on it is this ...either way i think it fits ...
  • #62,156
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:03am Apr 20, 2008 9:03am
I got to say sounds spot on Jim I just dont know if that test of the wedge sounds to easy.

Quoting hard1head1
Hey all, heres my 2 cents, maybe we can use it to find some direction...... On chart #1, the weekly chart, we have retraced all the way to the 76.1 fib level and you know what they say, 71.6 is a good place to buy, and this has shown true to form, however, that last candle pulled up short of becoming a bullish engulfer by just 5 pips, if you want to split hairs, I split them so Im gonna call it just that, a bullish engulfer. The 2nd chart, the Daily shows the fallen wedge has been broken to the up side as ordered, and is at some tough resistance in the form of an inside top from 4/4/08 and when you move to the 3rd chart you see some added res. in the form of a rouge upper trend line that has provided resistance and support in the past. There is also a bearish engulfer here on the 4 hr chart with kind of an inverted hammer. I am gonna say we will retrace to the .9800 level and test the back of this down trend line that forms he top of the wedge. Very rarely do they go on without testing and it would no surprise me if it heads that way at the open. So....Long overall but a short retracement first, any comments????

Jim
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,157
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:07am Apr 20, 2008 9:07am
Here’s my 1 hour and yes I think price is being squeezed.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,158
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:19am Apr 20, 2008 9:19am
Quoting hard1head1
Hey all, heres my 2 cents, maybe we can use it to find some direction...... On chart #1, the weekly chart, we have retraced all the way to the 76.1 fib level and you know what they say, 71.6 is a good place to buy, and this has shown true to form, however, that last candle pulled up short of becoming a bullish engulfer by just 5 pips, if you want to split hairs, I split them so Im gonna call it just that, a bullish engulfer. The 2nd chart, the Daily shows the fallen wedge has been broken to the up side as ordered, and is at some tough resistance in the form of an inside top from 4/4/08 and when you move to the 3rd chart you see some added res. in the form of a rouge upper trend line that has provided resistance and support in the past. There is also a bearish engulfer here on the 4 hr chart with kind of an inverted hammer. I am gonna say we will retrace to the .9800 level and test the back of this down trend line that forms he top of the wedge. Very rarely do they go on without testing and it would no surprise me if it heads that way at the open. So....Long overall but a short retracement first, any comments????

Jim
yes jim i do think so ..1.9800 would be 50% retracement ....and definately the place to buy...i think we will gap down and that will be the opportunity to test line.....great analysis buddy ..

the only problem is the 62 ema is in the way but i think we probably bounce of it and that be the place to buy ....i hope
but 50% retracement would be ideal ...
  • #62,159
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:46am Apr 20, 2008 9:46am
I'm also thinking about 1,98.. area and then 2.01..
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  • #62,160
  • Apr 20, 2008 10:49am Apr 20, 2008 10:49am
One possible short term view
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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