I cud have been up 80pips more this morning. But chickened out.
Now when I look at the screen the market is laughing at me saying "I told u PUNK, Man ure a window shopper".
This mornings experience is the prime example. End up losing some of my profit for the week.
I'm not down about it. I jus need to learn and stick to my trade plan.
Between now and the next 2hr I'll be looking for an opportunity to re-enter the market. After that its next week for me.f
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #62,081
- Apr 18, 2008 8:30am Apr 18, 2008 8:30am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
- #62,083
- Apr 18, 2008 8:35am Apr 18, 2008 8:35am
For a long time my friend tried to convince me that forex trading is similar to calculated gambling. The lucky keep wining and the unlucky keep loosing. I have tried hard to not agree. With each positive/negative trade I find it harder to convince myself that forex trading is not gambling. I have seen so many heads and shoulders complete and oddly enough fail! Yes the neckline is broken, but the price goes back!
Let’s take a look at GBPUSD. It was forming a perfect H&S and even the fundamentals suggested a detoriating economy for UK. But, look what happened, a spectacular rally on the Pound. Even the USD goes up! Considering the fact that both GBP and USD where weak currencies I started to trade the GBPCHF. And today the CHF goes weaker against the GBP!
Perfect example of fundamentals and technicals going out of whack. So what does that leave? Gambling yup calculated gambling! Going forward I plan to trade with a very open mind. Not caring a damn about fundamentals or technicals. Am keeping my fingers crossed, this may make me a trader or make me give up this calculated gambling forever! Boy this has been the single most difficult thing to learn in my life!
I agree though that the late bullishness in GU was very unpredictable for most of us. But that's why stoplosses exist.
- #62,085
- Edited 10:20am Apr 18, 2008 8:53am | Edited 10:20am
- | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,220 Posts
My feeling is right. Hope touches my short at 1.9855. Next limit 1.9898 - 1.9938.
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
- #62,087
- Apr 18, 2008 8:56am Apr 18, 2008 8:56am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
- #62,090
- Apr 18, 2008 9:17am Apr 18, 2008 9:17am
dude yeah me to ......if u go back and see my posts, right in the beginning im thinking long, then the bias in the forum creats a short impression and because everything is discresional...different idea all seem to make sense ..lol
traders i respect were thinking short, so i trying to come up with idea for why a short is valid and this is where yur not trading yur plan...boom it all falls to bits
this is what im saying to myself now : 90 % people lose money so 90% are wrong u just have to know who is a good trader and value that view otherwise we might as well ...give money to charity ..
anyway on with the chart ....
the original idea of the thread. Is cable up or down?
So you are bound to have two opinions. The best is to use
people's views to varify your own original plan, and discard what
you think is wrong, if your method works fine for you.
Lots of people come here to show their new discoveries and they disappeared when it is no longer working.
Don't use this thread to make blanket judgement. There are few good methods out there not shared in public. I do have one myself.
Today's trade is not too good - mine slipped back from 45pips to 21 pips
so I closed and that is all for the day.
- #62,091
- Apr 18, 2008 9:47am Apr 18, 2008 9:47am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: As you say Ingles - rich and free | 2,751 Posts
- #62,092
- Apr 18, 2008 9:49am Apr 18, 2008 9:49am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
i think the market is in shock and dunno where we are going ...dancing arond the traingle even thou it broke out
go figure
go figure
Everything is gambling I reckon - marrying a woman at 20 and expecting that you will like her at 50 is the biggest gamble - forex is tame after that.
Putting 110k in a federally insured money market account and hoping the bank will not go bust and take your 10k is a gamble nowadays as well
When I left the uk i had to give up spreadbetting on forex as its illegal here in the U.S. (the devil pilgrim) - but forex is trading not betting - what a laugh - pull the other one it has bells on !
I reckon horse racing is less of a gamble that forex
All it takes is a nerve gas attack in the middle of the city of london by some spotty 19 year old amateur with a chemistry set, and the gbp would fall like a stone - where are the chartists then ? like a set of dojis sat on melting candles with their pants on fire - that's where they would be.
yup it's gambling - so be a successful gambler eh
Anyone who gets in the morning an takes a shower is gambling
Why ,
because you to taking a chance that you don't slip and cause a problem for yourself
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
All of life is about choices , which translates to gambling ...........
- #62,094
- Apr 18, 2008 10:00am Apr 18, 2008 10:00am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
Anyone who gets in the morning an takes a shower is gambling
Why ,
because you to taking a chance that you don't slip and cause a problem for yourself
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
All of life is about choices , which translates to gambling ...........
maye im a scalper, trying to long term trade..
- #62,095
- Apr 18, 2008 10:03am Apr 18, 2008 10:03am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2006 | 11,977 Posts
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
- #62,097
- Edited 10:47am Apr 18, 2008 10:31am | Edited 10:47am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
- #62,098
- Apr 18, 2008 10:54am Apr 18, 2008 10:54am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
take this as a example ..2 inverted hammer formations a line tested 4 times yet price manages to spike it....to take any1 out...any scalper would have placed a sell and been spiked out
"An Inverted Hammer indicates that the prior downtrend is about to end and may reverse to an uptrend or move sideways."
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/...t-Pattern.html
In fact, those would be a clear signal to prepare for a LONG position... and second is not an inverted hammer, but a doji.
- #62,099
- Apr 18, 2008 11:02am Apr 18, 2008 11:02am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
im not sure but surelly 0% will be the swing low and 100 the swing high ..
It is important to apply your fibs the correct way Nav.
The fib retracement is a tool which measures the move you choose ,say a swing high to a swing low, and you are monitoring the prices retrace of that move. It also can give projected targets outside the move to aim for.
So if the move is down 0 would be at the bottom and if price retraced 100% of that move , that would be at the top and visa versa on an up move.
There is a slightly different way to apply fibs which im trying to learn which has you always applying fibs from top to bottom.
outlined on this thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
Watch the videos on the first post when you have time they are very good.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #62,100
- Apr 18, 2008 11:10am Apr 18, 2008 11:10am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
"An Inverted Hammer indicates that the prior downtrend is about to end and may reverse to an uptrend or move sideways."
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/...t-Pattern.html
In fact, those would be a clear signal to prepare for a LONG position... and second is not an inverted hammer, but a doji.
ok where the arrow is ..... 1 is inverted hammer and doji both are bullish with small bodies and price is rejected towards the trendline its a indication that price will move south..a new candle opened and opened below the trendline so movement would be down as there is now support for the candle instead of resistance ...unfortunately price did spike up and would have taken people out..this is confirmed as the new candle is moving southish the trendline was tested 4 times also which is another reason for south movement ..it shouldnt go up as there a full of factor to suggest going down. Also anoter thing is the big bearish candle shows a massive body and the small bullish bodies are insignicant toward a bullish move, all points down im afraid
and another tthing is the movement down has/had no trendline no immediate support or resistance so going down would or should have been easy
