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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,001
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:11pm Apr 17, 2008 6:11pm
Mates accumulated 37 houses all for stupid money at auctions and stuff like that, on paper he's a millionaire ( you wouldn't know it ofcourse ), sadly 6months back he couldn't see it and wouldn't sell up, he's abit well alot more concerned at the moment, won't take long before he's paper bankrupt and likely couldn't sell his houses in the current market anyway.

Last months 2.5% drop cost him @£25,000 ugggg!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,002
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:12pm Apr 17, 2008 6:12pm
Navin, this is what Ceco-Ku4ev means..unless I have drawn it incorrect also...

Basically the inner trend is broken. So I believe a violent retracement wud be need to get under the inner trend.

So its a high probability its gonna continue to the outer trendline or create a new channel.

I think this may explain why there is talk of a bull action until that that second channel is created they saying bull.

Never-the-less given what is here, the overall trend is bear.

We cant ignore this uptrend. Well it paid me nicely today.
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  • #62,003
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:23pm Apr 17, 2008 6:23pm
Quoting Turveyd
Mates accumulated 37 houses all for stupid money at auctions and stuff like that, on paper he's a millionaire ( you wouldn't know it ofcourse ), sadly 6months back he couldn't see it and wouldn't sell up, he's abit well alot more concerned at the moment, won't take long before he's paper bankrupt and likely couldn't sell his houses in the current market anyway.

Last months 2.5% drop cost him @£25,000 ugggg!!!

Well I never thought of it like that.
Of course people who have overextended themselves could find there in trouble and not able to get great interest rates.
But I would suspect most as Allserene has said have enough equity to sit it out or sell for substantial profit even after a knock on price.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,004
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:27pm Apr 17, 2008 6:27pm
People are definately getting dumber allserene.

2.5% is just the first bad month, which will likely add to the panic so expect 2.5%+ for many months to come, panic, greed and fear control the markets at the end of the day.

A 50% pull back in house prices isn't a big step, still 50% up from base which is in line with inflation + some, over 3 - 5 years here.

The problem is, it's not 95% of people are fine, thats more like 20% pretty much everyone has lived beyond there means on credit based on there house value increasing, well started that way, know it's credit cause they can't afford to buy stuff without it, turns into a vicous circle of screwed well and truely.

Why I'm trying desperately to crack trading and turn it profitable in a short timescale to make up the short fall at the moment.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,005
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:32pm Apr 17, 2008 6:32pm
Quoting Bones
Well I never thought of it like that.
Of course people who have overextended themselves could find there in trouble and not able to get great interest rates.
But I would suspect most as Allserene has said have enough equity to sit it out or sell for substantial profit even after a knock on price.

Look how many BILLIONS the UK's public are in debt to, I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the 60-80% area that are in trouble in the UK. ( depends on the age range, most 30-40years olds are in trouble, gets less so as they get older )

Sadly my GF's fallen for it, went on way too many holiday bought way too much crap and I'm in that 80% bracket, as are many of my friends
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,006
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:40pm Apr 17, 2008 6:40pm
So the main question is, have I slipped into trading STUPIDLY this week and last, or just a run off really bad statistical chances ??

Only down 60pips, so not a huge issue, barely traded with 7 trades this week, but only 2 of those ended positive, which isn't helping (keep coming in fresh). Which is down from my 70%+ winners.


Annoyed, thought I'd cracked it end of last week, definately not the plan!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,007
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:57pm Apr 17, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
So the main question is, have I slipped into trading STUPIDLY this week and last, or just a run off really bad statistical chances ??

Only down 60pips, so not a huge issue, barely traded with 7 trades this week, but only 2 of those ended positive, which isn't helping (keep coming in fresh). Which is down from my 70%+ winners.


Annoyed, thought I'd cracked it end of last week, definately not the plan!!
We all get it wrong because they keep changing the rules. First the US economy slips so the USD slips. Then it slips some more but the USD goes UP because the world is now afraid and the USD is the reserve currency and US investors are repatriating their cash.

Same thing happened but had an inverse result !

Do we know the break points where this happens and the rules change 180 degrees ? Do we heck.

Then oil prices go up and the DOW goes down because of increased costs - then oil trebles and the DOW goes up because the oil companies are making more money ! Same thing happened - but 180 degree different result !

Where is the tip point ? - you dont know and I dont know

ok so now we know not to draw conclusions even if we guess right as to how oil or gdp is going because we don't know the flip points

They are known only by the pros and only a nanosecond before the rules are redrawn in their favour and opposite to our reasoning

So don't reason too much using news and economics - when something looks too good to be true, I bet on it changing - doesn't always work before I lose heart though so it isnt the ANSWER
  • #62,008
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:06pm Apr 17, 2008 7:06pm
Hey back testing charts, I just found the answer

Recently been cutting back on my SMA lines to simplify the system, I'm just short term near scalping after all, but no, the M1 180SMA has reversed every losing trade, STUPID!!! Normally I'd be buying near for a continuation in trend not head butting it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,009
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:15pm Apr 17, 2008 7:15pm
Yep the changing off there rules is the main issue here, just as we get it cracked there computer system likely starts reading a profits drop due to retail, so they flip it 180degrees so everyone who's caught on to a new way to profit from the market suddenly gets hammered repeatedly while being confused as to why they keep losing

Then we cotton onto it, tell everyone else and the cycle repeats, you've got to adapt quickly to the change and be on the look out for the next change.

Last week all moves had continuation, this week most moves are fakes stall and reverse, sadly I only got 1 day of scalping with next to no losers off it, catching on at the end or what


Ahhhh to sneak onto there Trading style mailing list

This week we will be doing little fake runs that get people in, then get them stopped in 2mins easy demoralise the enemy.
Including news we'll have a fake run up, then stop everyone out reversing it who's gotten in, then just to amuse we'll then move back in the original direction, cause retail will be too scared to play at that time or likely jumped on the pull backs direction.

Seems to be there trading style this week.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62,010
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:08am Apr 18, 2008 12:08am
I apply Abuawad method consistently. Waiting for H1/H4 open/close beyond the unknown area 1.9872 - 1.9912. Maybe long maybe short. No greedy just for 10 - 20 pips. Currently I don't dare playing scalp in the unknown area.
Attached Image
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #62,011
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:17am Apr 18, 2008 12:17am
Have we got a nother tweeser at the top of the 4H. The last tweeser bottom caused a 300pip rally north. Could we be in for a rally down now?
  • #62,012
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:28am Apr 18, 2008 12:28am
Quoting Runway Trade
Have we got a nother tweeser at the top of the 4H. The last tweeser bottom caused a 300pip rally north. Could we be in for a rally down now?
I hope so ... yesterday I have a short at 1.9855 due to undicipline in applying Abuawad method ... I thought huge up then reverse for a while ... and I'm wrong ...
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #62,013
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:07am Apr 18, 2008 1:07am
damn stoped out ...we need not even move down a bit yesterday..look like unhill all the way ..
  • #62,014
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:11am Apr 18, 2008 1:11am
anyone knows why GU and EU moving UP so fast just now..
any news???
  • #62,015
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:13am Apr 18, 2008 1:13am
Quoting Ultraman
anyone knows why GU and EU moving UP so fast just now..
any news???
london baby..
  • #62,016
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:14am Apr 18, 2008 1:14am
Hi
cable gonna today to test monthly pivot @ 1.9982 and there is daily resistanse @ 1.9992 if broken we will see cable going to 2.0077 then 2.0125
  • #62,017
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:17am Apr 18, 2008 1:17am
No retrace then but then that daily candle yesturday was very blue on close
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,018
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:18am Apr 18, 2008 1:18am
H1 close above 1.9912, so I should do hedging. One thing I hate !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #62,019
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:21am Apr 18, 2008 1:21am
Quoting eye4spot
london baby..
how about EURUSD isn't test higt 1st at 1.5978 b4 down
or it;s wanna test low 1st at 1.5842 b4 up

i have 1 post buy and 1 post sell currently...
maybe i close buy..
  • #62,020
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:36am Apr 18, 2008 2:36am
Quoting fx local
glad iwas disloyal to this position!! cut abnd reverse for small long after philly fed break out. Clear break out of falling wedge formation, interesting to see where it closes on daily, tide turned in favor of bulls short term? 2.00 level in sight now perhaps
scaled in nice long now looking to cover around 2.0025 area
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