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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #61,981
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:45pm Apr 17, 2008 3:45pm
One of the reasons I remained bullish on the pound is the thought that the BOE had little room to drop interest rates and keep inflation in control including house inflation which is in need of a correction. I thought that as soon as rates were dropped that would be a red rag to a bull and the borrowing would start again so this would not happen.

The thing that scuppered that thought recently was the fact that banks started to restrict the money flow (the credit crunch)and it has been a lot harder to borrow, like the 100% mortgage being stopped within the last year when there were many back then and of course all this will affect house prices.

It seems that the fact that the government and BOE have been proactive with this problem that is enough to take us higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: day.gif Size: 39 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,982
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:56pm Apr 17, 2008 3:56pm
prepare for lift off > here it goes
  • #61,983
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:23pm Apr 17, 2008 4:23pm
on the daily chart the gu is sitting right on the 100ema which is giving it support, before any move up we might first see a drop to possible 1.9842. Might be an area to build longs...your thoughts
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  • #61,984
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:32pm Apr 17, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting jamesr24
on the daily chart the gu is sitting right on the 100ema which is giving it support, before any move up we might first see a drop to possible 1.9842. Might be an area to build longs...your thoughts
assuming we are right and this is trend reversal caused by tub thumping from the ECB, launch pad could be there or from here at 1.99

just trying a long with tightish s/l from 1.99
  • #61,985
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:37pm Apr 17, 2008 4:37pm
Agreed, it may come down to test the back of the top of the wedge.

Quoting jamesr24
on the daily chart the gu is sitting right on the 100ema which is giving it support, before any move up we might first see a drop to possible 1.9842. Might be an area to build longs...your thoughts
  • #61,986
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:38pm Apr 17, 2008 4:38pm
It has already tried 9923 and failed 4 times now
  • #61,987
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:45pm Apr 17, 2008 4:45pm
Hey guys and gals,

Check out this subtle trend line I found, got to have eyes in the back of your head.

Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.gif Size: 56 KB
  • #61,988
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:46pm Apr 17, 2008 4:46pm
Bones it's worse than that sadly !!

The banks are raising there interest rates despite the base rate being dropped, reason for this is banks are scared there going to be left holding alot of mortgages on houses which are soon going to be worth less than there debt alot less, which means huge losses for the bank.

Alot of people will be coming off there 3year fixed interest 5% area mortgages and going straight to a 7%-8% mortgage, meaning when it goes variable your cost goes up 50%, which is likely £300 per house hold.

Meaning people are going to be skint in the UK on average, so repossesions are going to sky rocket and well it's going to get nasty around here.

Factor in the rising cost of fuel and food both up drastically last 6months and real nasty.

Banks will fail, there trying to claw in as much cash as possible to cover there own margin requirements and screwing themselves in the process.

I hear the bank of england lowered it's lending margin amount to, so the banks need more assetts in there account to cover what they've borrowed. Which is why they are lowering credit card limits on people with good ratings just to reduce, there Max outstanding balances

* including my card, knocked £9000 off it *
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #61,989
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:51pm Apr 17, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting Turveyd
Bones it's worse than that sadly !!

The banks are raising there interest rates despite the base rate being dropped, reason for this is banks are scared there going to be left holding alot of mortgages on houses which are soon going to be worth less than there debt alot less, which means huge losses for the bank.

Alot of people will be coming off there 3year fixed interest 5% area mortgages and going straight to a 7%-8% mortgage, meaning when it goes variable your cost goes up 50%, which is likely £300 per house hold.

Meaning people are going to be skint in the UK on average, so repossesions are going to sky rocket and well it's going to get nasty around here.

Factor in the rising cost of fuel and food both up drastically last 6months and real nasty.

Banks will fail, there trying to claw in as much cash as possible to cover there own margin requirements and screwing themselves in the process.

I hear the bank of england lowered it's lending margin amount to, so the banks need more assetts in there account to cover what they've borrowed. Which is why they are lowering credit card limits on people with good ratings just to reduce, there Max outstanding balances

* including my card, knocked £9000 off it *
They are just starting that over in the UK?????

I was shocked when I got mine back in January. :surprised

UH OH.........

HOLLA
  • #61,990
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:55pm Apr 17, 2008 4:55pm
Ok, if it decides to come back and test the back of that wedge, circa 9830, just happens to be where the 61.8 fib level is.
  • #61,991
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:57pm Apr 17, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
alot of text
This means bearishness right? But when?
  • #61,992
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:59pm Apr 17, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting SimonJ
This means bearishness right? But when?
I wud assume when it breaks below 1.9890. It has been ranging between 1.9923 and 1.9890.

But were still on top of the over all bull trend....so it may retrace to the 61.8% fib level

But I am here to learn...IMO
  • #61,993
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:00pm Apr 17, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting jamesr24
on the daily chart the gu is sitting right on the 100ema which is giving it support, before any move up we might first see a drop to possible 1.9842. Might be an area to build longs...your thoughts

If you take a look at the weekly, price is currently capped by the 21 ema and a 200% fib on an hourly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WEEKLY GU CLOSEUP.GIF Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: HOURLY GU.GIF Size: 31 KB
  • #61,994
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:03pm Apr 17, 2008 5:03pm
Looking like major sell off on all pairs over the night and tommorow, so that bearishness might start sooner rather than later!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #61,995
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:05pm Apr 17, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting Turveyd
Bones it's worse than that sadly !!

The banks are raising there interest rates despite the base rate being dropped, reason for this is banks are scared there going to be left holding alot of mortgages on houses which are soon going to be worth less than there debt alot less, which means huge losses for the bank.

Alot of people will be coming off there 3year fixed interest 5% area mortgages and going straight to a 7%-8% mortgage, meaning when it goes variable your cost goes up 50%, which is likely £300 per house hold.

Meaning people are going to be skint in the UK on average, so repossesions are going to sky rocket and well it's going to get nasty around here.

Factor in the rising cost of fuel and food both up drastically last 6months and real nasty.

Banks will fail, there trying to claw in as much cash as possible to cover there own margin requirements and screwing themselves in the process.

I hear the bank of england lowered it's lending margin amount to, so the banks need more assetts in there account to cover what they've borrowed. Which is why they are lowering credit card limits on people with good ratings just to reduce, there Max outstanding balances

* including my card, knocked £9000 off it *
Well that’s my point Turveyd ,im not sure about who’s paying 8% but that needs to be addressed and making money flow will address that as the base rate is not that high.

You can get much closer to 5.5 % with HSBC Bank right now?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,996
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:09pm Apr 17, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
i have to be honest bro ....we bouncing of trendlines...we hit the top of weekly and bounced, we are not in a uptrend..i dont understand why people think we are ..have a look at yur chart im sure u will see that the trend is down ....weekly chart trend line is still intact....we only in uptrend when the daily close shows a break out...id wait to see if this is thte case b4 u longing anything ..i went short and bloody thing went up.....LOL

It will be interesting to see how this pans out...right now im just confused about the movement..the weekly was bearish..who unless theres inside info can predict such a movement...if any1 can then please tell me/ show me..

how does this chart show we are in uptrend?
Holy Cow! What's that trendline? OMG u have f*ckin drawn it using TODAY'S HIGH ! This is the wrongest wrong trendline drawing ever!
  • #61,997
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:42pm Apr 17, 2008 5:42pm
Hey, easy on the guy, were all just trying to learn. Please dont belittle, show him the mistake.

Quoting Ceco-Ku4ev
Holy Cow! What's that trendline? OMG u have f*ckin drawn it using TODAY'S HIGH ! This is the wrongest wrong trendline drawing ever!
  • #61,998
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:46pm Apr 17, 2008 5:46pm
Thats fine, if you can remortgage and Halifax are likely the cheapest, 8's maybe alittle high but i've heard of 7%, Buy to Let rate best my mate can get who's heavily into property is 7.5% at the moment.

About time the buy to let people had some downside on there investments
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #61,999
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:56pm Apr 17, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting Turveyd
Thats fine, if you can remortgage and Halifax are likely the cheapest, 8's maybe alittle high but i've heard of 7%, Buy to Let rate best my mate can get who's heavily into property is 7.5% at the moment.

About time the buy to let people had some downside on there investments
Yes I know what you mean on them buy to let guys they are a lot of the problem but can not blame them ,I wish I was one of them ,lol
I’ve not quoted Halifax that’s HSBC which is a bank and not even a building society which tend to do better.
Im not trying to sell you a mortgage honestly
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,000
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:02pm Apr 17, 2008 6:02pm
My son emailed me from Tenerife and said he heard house prices in the UK have never been this low for 30 years. This is what people outside the UK believe.

This mass panic about the UK is totally unfounded. My bank had to be asked 3 times by me to reduce my credit limit from £10k as I felt open to id theft. I just got cash from my selling my house there and 3 of my pals sold too.

Look, all that's happening is that house prices bubbled and now a small percentage of desperate people are dropping prices to get shut - just like the US or anywhere that has a bubble. As Margaret Thatcher said 'if there is 10% unemployment then it means that 90% are employed'

So all this sub prime stuff is going to miss the 95%+ who keep their jobs, keep their houses and are doing fine.

95%+ of people don't want to sell their house and it's only the £50k credit card brigade who buy rubbish rings on cable channels and fill their garages full of electronic back scratchers and computerised spider swatters who are defaulting. All the big brother and american idle idiots who spend 600 dollars a month on their cell phones talking crap to other brain donors. I heard of one who spend 300 dollars on a jar of dirt because someone told him it was from the holy land (son of a friend).

Elitist ? moi ?well there are squirrels in my tree who look like elitists compared to most of the sub prime idiots who are in trouble now. At least the squirrels save enough nuts for winter.

The UK isn't crumbling and all we have to do is click on the calender tab and look at the figures - a 2.5% reduction after a 300% bubble isn't exactly earth shattering. I just made 300% in 11 years on my little house after lopping £40k off the peak price to sell it.

Let's not believe all we read in the papers or in the internet media

Same thing for the USA by the way - it sure doesnt look broke to me - it's just an outrageous credit cycle like all the others I have seen over the decades - they just get bigger every time that's all

3 years from now and we will be off again with the banks begging us to take money from them and the garages full of fitness equipment junk and $200 plastic steps for 350 pound women to step up and down on before they stagger back to their cream buns and hdtv and surround sound and... and... and....

My dad left school at 14 and drove a delivery van for 8 quid a week for the co-op when I was a teenager but he had more sense than this sub prime lot put together

It's not about class or money - it's about dumbing down and either people are getting dumber or I am thinking about it more now that I am retired

Curmugeons rule ok !
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