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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #61,941
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:07am Apr 17, 2008 11:07am
and E/G is still going down.
  • #61,942
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:08am Apr 17, 2008 11:08am
Quoting shajib
Nice bounce off fib level on weekly chart + channel resistance line broken + April Fed rate cut due. Guess the direction of g/u for the rest of the month...

Of course nothing is for certain, especially since UK housing is getting from bad to worse. But today's BOE announcement of launching a new scheme to help banks swap mortgages with Gilts will certainly help in minimising financial troubles. At least for the time being, another attempt at 2.0460 looks increasing likely. I will be looking to add to long positions after a nice pull back from current highs.


Happy trading.
I agree with you Shajib BUT don't forget about "MPC Meeting Minutes on next Wednesday. This signal news could drop Cable at least couple of hundreds pips easily if the news would be any number with cut (Red news) and we all know that this news should be red because the original meeting did cut the interest rate. So any trader from this forum wants to do the short then most welcome to do the short right after a second of this news......

Thanks,
Al-Syed.
Practice and Decision Making
is the key to Success.
  • #61,943
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:12am Apr 17, 2008 11:12am
Quoting salah k.
i dont know if this works for u but u are totally undermining technicals
plus i mean how much further can dollar go south, i dont care wat anyone says they are getting hurt by inflation in the US

and once FED start lowering the rate cut or even nit cutting at all
we will c a whole other market
If they hike in the US then it will be awful for the economy.

We are in a classic slumpflation where the govt wants to hike but can't and an election coming on

Worst possible scenario - but the govt will have to hike eventually and then the really painful medicine sets in but the dollar sees hope

If, just at that time, the Euro-economy falters on their lagging cycle - especially if it isn't evenly spread across europe, crash bang wallop for the euro

hecky thump - I am 90% in cash right now with half of that in GBP - come on 2.07
  • #61,944
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:14am Apr 17, 2008 11:14am
Short GU Short...............

Long time no shouting this ..

1.9916
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #61,945
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:14am Apr 17, 2008 11:14am
Quoting karmostaji
huh? Explain please

I depended two indicator on fibo the euro fall to 23,6 and cable to 00

And if cable dawn 600 pip *.8=480pipe – 1.6euro = 1.55.20
Grasp all lose all
  • #61,946
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:17am Apr 17, 2008 11:17am
Quoting allserene
If they hike in the US then it will be awful for the economy.

We are in a classic slumpflation where the govt wants to hike but can't and an election coming on

Worst possible scenario - but the govt will have to hike eventually and then the really painful medicine sets in but the dollar sees hope

If, just at that time, the Euro-economy falters on their lagging cycle - especially if it isn't evenly spread across europe, crash bang wallop for the euro

hecky thump - I am 90% in cash right now with half of that in GBP - come on 2.07
Awesome point.......it does look like a nice bounce....

Time will tell.......

Getting to be a nice time to buy some houses.......

HOLLA
  • #61,947
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:18am Apr 17, 2008 11:18am
Quoting Teefoo
I depended two indicator on fibo the euro fall to 23,6 and cable to 00

And if cable dawn 600 pip *.8=480pipe – 1.6euro = 1.55.20
Ye but these pairs aren't 100% connected.
  • #61,948
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:19am Apr 17, 2008 11:19am
I seriously reckon something in this thread, that is "very dependable to indicators"

I am giving lecture here, but indicator only tells u something about the market---urself have to feel it. because what indicator, siganls tells you can go north or south(long or short). how u feel about the market should not be what the indicator shows. Signs twist your mind---so keep things simple!

for those people who want to be a good serious trader, u need to go and develope u feeling of market. always, thinking against the market, trading with the trend! read the news, do the research, be patient and u will make money!

no offence to anyone, just feel like put a reminder as i seen a lots of technical analysis or calls, shrinking away from the trend.

good luck
  • #61,949
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:28am Apr 17, 2008 11:28am
Currently Euro, US and Yen are stable each other. Only GBP shows stronger. I suspect it is done by speculant, therefore the cable will fall again !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #61,950
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:29am Apr 17, 2008 11:29am
Quoting allserene
If they hike in the US then it will be awful for the economy.

We are in a classic slumpflation where the govt wants to hike but can't and an election coming on

Worst possible scenario - but the govt will have to hike eventually and then the really painful medicine sets in but the dollar sees hope

If, just at that time, the Euro-economy falters on their lagging cycle - especially if it isn't evenly spread across europe, crash bang wallop for the euro

hecky thump - I am 90% in cash right now with half of that in GBP - come on 2.07

in that case i hope cable goes ur way
i think that new home sales number for US next week is a major number because if we saw a good number that would make 2 months in a row so i think that would make reducing rate cutting much easier for the FED this month.

anyway good luck and it's always great to read ur posts because u r probably on of the most experienced traders here( 350 years in trading if I recall correctly)

"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #61,951
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:30am Apr 17, 2008 11:30am
Quoting allserene

hecky thump - I am 90% in cash right now with half of that in GBP - come on 2.07
2.07 ? Sure I agree, but hit 1.9600 first..........so i can buy new hat

SHort short shortttttttt
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #61,952
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:32am Apr 17, 2008 11:32am
Quoting asyed4
I agree with you Shajib BUT don't forget about "MPC Meeting Minutes on next Wednesday. This signal news could drop Cable at least couple of hundreds pips easily if the news would be any number with cut (Red news) and we all know that this news should be red because the original meeting did cut the interest rate. So any trader from this forum wants to do the short then most welcome to do the short right after a second of this news......

Thanks,
Al-Syed.
Practice and Decision Making
is the key to Success.
I would definately be one of those looking to position for a short before the MPC minutes are out. But that would likely be a short term trade. If you look at the daily 20/55/100 MA levels on daily chart you will see how strong today's move really is, especially if we manage to close above 100MA. So even if there is a large correction on Wednesday, I suspect the cluster of MA will be good enough to prevent any further decline. Otherwise one of my shorts from the top should come good just in case the ground gives way.
  • #61,953
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:42am Apr 17, 2008 11:42am
shorted from 1.99122 hoping for a ride down to 1.9855 ish

then who knows - perhaps another ride up
  • #61,954
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:47am Apr 17, 2008 11:47am
Quoting notme32
2.07 ? Sure I agree, but hit 1.9600 first..........so i can buy new hat

SHort short shortttttttt



HOLLA
  • #61,955
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:50am Apr 17, 2008 11:50am
Quoting SimonJ
Ye but these pairs aren't 100% connected.

Ye but am remove any news can impact on the pairs
Now I short from1. 9905
The otter h4 candle may can fall
Grasp all lose all
  • #61,956
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:53am Apr 17, 2008 11:53am
EUR/GBP: Confluence of Fundamentals and Techs Weigh New York, April 17. The cross has put in a technical bearish reversal day today and we believe the recent price action is indicative of the start to a material pullback over the coming days. The failure by 0.8100 coincides with multi-week channel resistance with daily, weekly, and monthly readings all showing overbought and in desperate need of a healthy unwind. The key level to watch below now comes in at 0.7963 with a break of the latter confirming a shift in the structure and opening fresh downside.
Fundamentally, the catalyst for today"s reversal comes on the back of mounting pressures from EU officials regarding the over-inflated Euro rate and the need for some serious action to be taken to mitigate the move. This morning"s comments from EU Junker reaffirm this view with the Luxembourg Prime Minister warning that the markets did not understand just how serious the G7 was with their message on FX movements. Also seen weighing on the cross has been the markets ability to maintain their risk appetite even in the face of uncertainty
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #61,957
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:54am Apr 17, 2008 11:54am
EUR/USD: Soros Comments Dim Euro's Lustre New York, April 17th. In his usual manner George Soros is lecturing all and sundry on what they should think. He has proclaimed that the Euro cannot replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and that a system with two major reserve currencies is not a stable system. He believes that eventually the dollar will re-emerge as the world's reserve currency, but feels that the US will have to get its house in order with regard to its mounting deficits. One comment worthy of repeating is "The euro, while it is obviously an alternative, is not a truly attractive alternative, and therefore there's a general flight from currencies; that's how you have the creation of sovereign wealth funds which are basically seeking to diversify from monetary assets to real assets."
He may be full of himself, but no one said he's not smart. One of the reasons that markets are paying closer attention to the correlation of equity and currency flows is because the sovereign wealth funds are accumulating, trimming, and adding to active portfolios, and in the size they have, currency flows are substantial. Spot last at 1.5925.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #61,958
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:28pm Apr 17, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting fx local
EUR/USD: Soros Comments -- that's how you have the creation of sovereign wealth funds which are basically seeking to diversify from monetary assets to real assets."

Yes but most real assets are not portable like paintings

So if you buy a shopping mall in new york or a hydro electric dam in washington state or a boutique on the champs elysees, then it's a currency position - I reckon most real assets are like that so we are still forced to make a choice

Hate making choices - I like to float
  • #61,959
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:41pm Apr 17, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting shajib
I would definately be one of those looking to position for a short before the MPC minutes are out. But that would likely be a short term trade. If you look at the daily 20/55/100 MA levels on daily chart you will see how strong today's move really is, especially if we manage to close above 100MA. So even if there is a large correction on Wednesday, I suspect the cluster of MA will be good enough to prevent any further decline. Otherwise one of my shorts from the top should come good just in case the ground gives way.
hi shajib

i see a cable at 2k shortly, i will wait for a retr to the 9850 level to go long for 2k. i will then short it for a 50/100 pip retr from there (will reassess if and when it get there)

where is your tp for your longs? send me a pm, i have another question for you

cheers
  • #61,960
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:52pm Apr 17, 2008 12:52pm
After all this wafel I still have no idea why cable rallied and all other dollar pairs did nothing, yen did nothing, euro had a bit a bit of a dip, aussie stayed stable. Why this jump in cable?
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