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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #61,921
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:12am Apr 17, 2008 10:12am
Quoting fx local
cable aprraoching trendline on 4hr and daily around 1.9830 area, tricky here, could sell into failed rally or buy (if not already long) on a break trendline, currently have small short in, although shall be very disloyal to this postion should there be a break out!!!
glad iwas disloyal to this position!! cut abnd reverse for small long after philly fed break out. Clear break out of falling wedge formation, interesting to see where it closes on daily, tide turned in favor of bulls short term? 2.00 level in sight now perhaps
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #61,922
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:17am Apr 17, 2008 10:17am
Quoting hard1head1
The falling wedge is still intact, in order to break the wedge, it must break it and come back and test it and go on.
Thats exactly what I was thinking,that would be my entry
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,923
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:20am Apr 17, 2008 10:20am
I stand corrected...Thanks FX I always thought the opposite


Quoting fx local
a falling wedge is usually a bullish formation, the example shown looks familiar in Cable at the moment
  • #61,924
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:22am Apr 17, 2008 10:22am
Quoting salah k.
guys im pretty sure it cut the 4h bearish channel.
now its not a strong cut so it should start falling.

in case it doesn't because cable seems to be gaining much momentum from eur/gbp then that means we might be heading for 9900.

anyway commodities are falling and dollar is gaining strength and it isnt affecting cable so thats y im starting to think trend reversal.

i really hoped to c 9300 this week.
If cable fall to 1.93 mast euro fall to 1.5600 that impossible this week my friend
Grasp all lose all
  • #61,925
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:24am Apr 17, 2008 10:24am
now a good time to get out then?
im still long
  • #61,926
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:25am Apr 17, 2008 10:25am
Quoting Teefoo
If cable fall to 1.93 mast euro fall to 1.5600 that impossible this week my friend
huh? Explain please
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #61,927
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:30am Apr 17, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Tmac
Thr trend on this pair has been up for some time now, look at your weekly and monthly charts

weekly is showing bullish ?????????????????//

if theres anything that can give hope for bearish cable its the weekly chart.

monthly is showing almost 4 doji candles so u cant tell whether its is bullish or bearish

the only thing showing bullish formation is the fact that on the 4h chart we broke the bearish channel.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #61,928
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:34am Apr 17, 2008 10:34am
The question is when will it reverse. I see its broken too on my 4hr. Could this be a sign of bull week starting?

bull seems strong and if it shud retrace shud be just as strong.

Just asking. I'm a newbie.
  • #61,929
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:36am Apr 17, 2008 10:36am
On the triangle break out target has been met(white line )same length as back of triangle.+ average daily range met.
So a pull back looks likely for next move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 17 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,930
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:36am Apr 17, 2008 10:36am
So everyone on this thread was saying the gbp was finished a couple of days ago - dusty little old economy and housing awful and who is interested in GBP for heavens sake.

And Soros says the sky is the limit for Euro and we read his book so it must be true

Now today - all I see is comments about how great GBP is and lets get with this new reality and it was obvious the euro was overbought

Sheep - just bloody sheep

More evidence that as soon as everyone says the same thing - trade opposite
  • #61,931
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:39am Apr 17, 2008 10:39am
Quoting allserene
More evidence that as soon as everyone says the same thing - trade opposite
  • #61,932
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:41am Apr 17, 2008 10:41am
Quoting allserene
So everyone on this thread was saying the gbp was finished a couple of days ago - dusty little old economy and housing awful and who is interested in GBP for heavens sake.

And Soros says the sky is the limit for Euro and we read his book so it must be true

Now today - all I see is comments about great GBP is and lets get with this new reality and it was obvious the euro was overbought

Sheep - just bloody sheep

More evidence that as soon as everyone says the same thing - trade opposite
Well not me.But its still not exatly fully recovered.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,933
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:41am Apr 17, 2008 10:41am
Everyone except me then. :-p
  • #61,934
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:42am Apr 17, 2008 10:42am
If anything price has been flat for some time if you look at longer moving averages.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,935
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:46am Apr 17, 2008 10:46am
Quoting allserene
So everyone on this thread was saying the gbp was finished a couple of days ago - dusty little old economy and housing awful and who is interested in GBP for heavens sake.

And Soros says the sky is the limit for Euro and we read his book so it must be true

Now today - all I see is comments about great GBP is and lets get with this new reality and it was obvious the euro was overbought

Sheep - just bloody sheep

More evidence that as soon as everyone says the same thing - trade opposite

I agree with the traders that GBP is a very skeptical pair to trade. But I came up with my philosophy in regards to GBP/USD to hike up than hike down which is based on my following theories

1) GBP has so many options to increase on a daily basis such as
a) if Euro gets high
b) if there is no news coming out for UK such as no news is good news
c) If USD news got bad
d) If DJIA gots worse in intradday time.
e) If there is a random news that gives positive effect to GBP such as
Wachove bank or increment in dividend or govt budget etc etc

2) On the other hand GBP has very limited options to decrease on a daily basis such as
a) Unless if UK Intrest rate cut news is happened
b) Unless if Halifax or Nation Wide Housing price news got messed up
c) Unless if Inflation gets trouble by having bad news in CPI, PPI

That's it man. So in the conclusion, I should say on a daily basis if a trader wants to do the trading I would prefer to play long unless any of my 2) instances would happen then would go for short.
  • #61,936
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:47am Apr 17, 2008 10:47am
Quoting allserene
So everyone on this thread was saying the gbp was finished a couple of days ago - dusty little old economy and housing awful and who is interested in GBP for heavens sake.

And Soros says the sky is the limit for Euro and we read his book so it must be true

Now today - all I see is comments about how great GBP is and lets get with this new reality and it was obvious the euro was overbought

Sheep - just bloody sheep

More evidence that as soon as everyone says the same thing - trade opposite
old and bold!!
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #61,937
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:50am Apr 17, 2008 10:50am
the problem with saying it broke out of the downward channel is that..the flipping candle hasnt closed yet...so has it broken this is the question
  • #61,938
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:58am Apr 17, 2008 10:58am
Quoting asyed4
I agree with the traders that GBP is a very skeptical pair to trade. But I came up with my philosophy in regards to GBP/USD to hike up than hike down which is based on my following theories

1) GBP has so many options to increase on a daily basis such as
a) if Euro gets high
b) if there is no news coming out for UK such as no news is good news
c) If USD news got bad
d) If DJIA gots worse in intradday time.
e) If there is a random news that gives positive effect to GBP such as
Wachove bank or increment in dividend or govt budget etc etc

2) On the other hand GBP has very limited options to decrease on a daily basis such as
a) Unless if UK Intrest rate cut news is happened
b) Unless if Halifax or Nation Wide Housing price news got messed up
c) Unless if Inflation gets trouble by having bad news in CPI, PPI

That's it man. So in the conclusion, I should say on a daily basis if a trader wants to do the trading I would prefer to play long unless any of my 2) instances would happen then would go for short.
i dont know if this works for u but u are totally undermining technicals
plus i mean how much further can dollar go south, i dont care wat anyone says they are getting hurt by inflation in the US

and once FED start lowering the rate cut or even nit cutting at all
we will c a whole other market
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #61,939
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:59am Apr 17, 2008 10:59am
Fridays are generally the opposite of wednesdays and thursdays. The long 4 hour candle signals a change in trend for tomorrow. Isn't it? Any Comments!
  • #61,940
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:00am Apr 17, 2008 11:00am
Nice bounce off fib level on weekly chart + channel resistance line broken + April Fed rate cut due. Guess the direction of g/u for the rest of the month...

Of course nothing is for certain, especially since UK housing is getting from bad to worse. But today's BOE announcement of launching a new scheme to help banks swap mortgages with Gilts will certainly help in minimising financial troubles. At least for the time being, another attempt at 2.0460 looks increasing likely. I will be looking to add to long positions after a nice pull back from current highs.


Happy trading.
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