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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #61,761
  • Apr 16, 2008 6:43am Apr 16, 2008 6:43am
However, I dont think it will get there. Its gonna have to hurry, lots of news coming.
  • #61,762
  • Apr 16, 2008 6:49am Apr 16, 2008 6:49am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i shall short around 1.9850 ..i think we will get there ..we still moving up and around 1.9823 or so ..

8 hr chart by the way incase yur wondering why it looks different .....lol
I am thinking the same thing, mate! just closed out from 198, postion from 19620. but i wasnt not very confidient with the long last nite.
but as i mentioned before, non-US is really preparing something big against dollar---again. Dollar cant be very strong in near term
what is the most important is that usd/jpy is now trading within a nice range. therefore, things are repeating as what happened in 2006. all carry trade joining the dollar-fall hunting, by stable higher eur gbp
  • #61,763
  • Apr 16, 2008 6:56am Apr 16, 2008 6:56am
Quoting priceaction
Good for you Tomaz!
Why is that?

Cheers
Rob
basically due to price exhaustion, price has ran up 200 pips on a downtrend, perfect to sell into strength.

i'm not surprised if it tests 9800 again to trick all you freaks into going long though, pity i didnt sell there. if it doesnt work out i'll lose around 50 pip, if it breaks 9730 i'll put stop at be, with a huge profit potential
  • #61,764
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:01am Apr 16, 2008 7:01am
Looks like we are at the start of an uptrend on the daily. Anyone else agree? Or at least a mini up movement over the next few days.....
  • #61,765
  • Edited 10:43am Apr 16, 2008 7:06am | Edited 10:43am
Im going to watch this one play out as I would like the falling Daily TL to be tested again.I would sell the rejection.
That may not happen today.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #61,766
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:07am Apr 16, 2008 7:07am
Quoting maxvre
Looks like we are at the start of an uptrend on the daily. Anyone else agree? Or at least a mini up movement over the next few days.....
After yesterdays bearish engulfing (of body) candle, today could be a bullish engulfing (of body) with any close above yesterdays open.

Intraday, and a 2nd test of that RBS area, price currently trading between that and the intraday high at 9805;
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ex member
  • #61,767
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:08am Apr 16, 2008 7:08am
Quoting maxvre
Looks like we are at the start of an uptrend on the daily. Anyone else agree? Or at least a mini up movement over the next few days.....
the weekly chart suggest bearish movement ...by the end of week our close shall/should be lower than close cose last week...we should i think test 1.93 barely touch and bounce ...then uphill all the way ..

monthly chart says we in a uptrend all this movement to 1.93 is simply a retracemant of a much longer time frame ..

im new to all this so if im wrong please tell me i have the picture wrong but this is what im thinking...or actually give a different view as nobody really know for sure.
  • #61,768
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:11am Apr 16, 2008 7:11am
Daily chart shown
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  • #61,769
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:17am Apr 16, 2008 7:17am
Quoting maxvre
Looks like we are at the start of an uptrend on the daily. Anyone else agree? Or at least a mini up movement over the next few days.....
Not quite made up my mind on that one yet.
  • #61,770
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:24am Apr 16, 2008 7:24am
Quoting forexmoments
Not quite made up my mind on that one yet.

one thing ....we definately moving up slowly....data from US i think is good for them so this might be what pushes us down ...also if this is the case, stop might have to be huge as well as bloody news is there to wipe accounts ...lol
  • #61,771
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:28am Apr 16, 2008 7:28am
Time to muse:

I know the vast majority of people on here are ultra short term traders but a few play a longer game.

It is apparent that the GBP is being traded much like the USD in recent weeks and months. The Euro/GPB chart is quite spectacularly divergent for 2 economies so closely linked in trading and geography

The figures I see in the UK are really not bad enough to warrant it's present position which is a hangover from northern rock plus the idea that the economy is fuelled mainly by home equity withdrawals.

The US has suffered a few 'northern rocks' now and these have been played down and rescued more quietly - but still rescued.

I am starting to think that the Euro/gbp chart is the revealing one and points to a rise for the GBP which has had much better numbers than the US.

The idea that GBP can be strong has been unthinkable - the idea that the Euro can sink is unthinkable - the idea that the US has had a mild downturn and the rate cuts will have us back to normal by the third quarter is given credence when it shouldnt - so perhaps thats the time that gbp can move back up

Nobody will believe that until we start hitting 2.04 again and consolidating, but a rush of belief could arrive at that stage

I leave Florida this week - a place where many houses have been on the market 4 years - off to live on a mountain in washington state and seek inspiration. My UK house sale money is still in GBP, and at this exchange rate and 5.5% interest it can stay there a while - I get peanuts on my USD deposits. 2.10 will see me sell.
  • #61,772
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:40am Apr 16, 2008 7:40am
the thing is if 2.01 comes people will believe 2.04 is approachable nobody else will sell ......lol ...gotta go with the masses ..its collective thought that drives price not anything else..strange thing trading!!! huh

but as always your view can never be taken lightly ....good view
  • #61,773
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:44am Apr 16, 2008 7:44am
newss........i start to go short....
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #61,774
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:49am Apr 16, 2008 7:49am
Quoting allserene
Time to muse:

I know the vast majority of people on here are ultra short term traders but a few play a longer game.

It is apparent that the GBP is being traded much like the USD in recent weeks and months. The Euro/GPB chart is quite spectacularly divergent for 2 economies so closely linked in trading and geography

The figures I see in the UK are really not bad enough to warrant it's present position which is a hangover from northern rock plus the idea that the economy is fuelled mainly by home equity withdrawals.

The US has suffered a few 'northern rocks' now and these have been played down and rescued more quietly - but still rescued.

I am starting to think that the Euro/gbp chart is the revealing one and points to a rise for the GBP which has had much better numbers than the US.

The idea that GBP can be strong has been unthinkable - the idea that the Euro can sink is unthinkable - the idea that the US has had a mild downturn and the rate cuts will have us back to normal by the third quarter is given credence when it shouldnt - so perhaps thats the time that gbp can move back up

Nobody will believe that until we start hitting 2.04 again and consolidating, but a rush of belief could arrive at that stage

I leave Florida this week - a place where many houses have been on the market 4 years - off to live on a mountain in washington state and seek inspiration. My UK house sale money is still in GBP, and at this exchange rate and 5.5% interest it can stay there a while - I get peanuts on my USD deposits. 2.10 will see me sell.
it is always great to read ur analysis i just wish u would post more often.

however i have to disagree i think cable will retest 9400 or possibly 9300 (which is the most important resistance of all) and then possibly back to new highs.

however i believe that europe is following US in credit and housing situation, since we are already hearing shouts of distress from spain england ... plus yesterday's german numbers were nothing to be proud of.

they way it looks to businessmen on the ground they are preferring american and asian merchandise over european and that will cause a big hit to employment in europe plus talks of raising rates will cause even more credit distress and lets face it its not like they have much commodities to rely on( no oil ...)

as a conclusion i believe that euro will have a black day and it might take with it cable and others.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #61,775
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:09am Apr 16, 2008 8:09am
sharp angle ....
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  • #61,776
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:18am Apr 16, 2008 8:18am
hmmm yes....down...cable......im already short....come on....
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #61,777
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:20am Apr 16, 2008 8:20am
no real conclusions from this as only a 5min scenario, but break of the RBS area and it begins to look a little bearish intraday I guess
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ex member
  • #61,778
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:21am Apr 16, 2008 8:21am
Quoting radit27
newss........i start to go short....
im feel good today..heee...yes...
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #61,779
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:25am Apr 16, 2008 8:25am
long 9760 tp 9835 short stop
  • #61,780
  • Apr 16, 2008 8:25am Apr 16, 2008 8:25am
Quoting allserene
Time to muse:

I know the vast majority of people on here are ultra short term traders but a few play a longer game.

It is apparent that the GBP is being traded much like the USD in recent weeks and months. The Euro/GPB chart is quite spectacularly divergent for 2 economies so closely linked in trading and geography

The figures I see in the UK are really not bad enough to warrant it's present position which is a hangover from northern rock plus the idea that the economy is fuelled mainly by home equity withdrawals.

The US has suffered a few 'northern rocks' now and these have been played down and rescued more quietly - but still rescued.

I am starting to think that the Euro/gbp chart is the revealing one and points to a rise for the GBP which has had much better numbers than the US.

The idea that GBP can be strong has been unthinkable - the idea that the Euro can sink is unthinkable - the idea that the US has had a mild downturn and the rate cuts will have us back to normal by the third quarter is given credence when it shouldnt - so perhaps thats the time that gbp can move back up

Nobody will believe that until we start hitting 2.04 again and consolidating, but a rush of belief could arrive at that stage

I leave Florida this week - a place where many houses have been on the market 4 years - off to live on a mountain in washington state and seek inspiration. My UK house sale money is still in GBP, and at this exchange rate and 5.5% interest it can stay there a while - I get peanuts on my USD deposits. 2.10 will see me sell.
good for u! I always looking into my chart and the trend with doubt, but the fact is riding the trend---to make money. writing fantasy can make people a living, if they are analyst or J.K rowling.

IMO, things are changing, trend will reverse only when unexpected-bad news come out. any good surprise only enhance bull ride. they are a lot of factors should taking into account for GBP. 1.UK economy is very similar to US 2.Northern rock fact. 3 UK currency only supported by UK, EUR is supported by a region(many say EUR is a joke, and it still is!) 3.European bank also have GBP in their holding, but the truth is,,ECB is trying replace USD with EUR as a major currency. current situation for GBP is very similar to what happened in 1990s----those bank think GBP is overvalued.
4. Carry trades flooding out in last 9 months from UK. however, signs showing they are coming back.

I personally really dont eurozone economy is any much better than UK. However, as it said before, Eurozone is still a joke. e.g. they dont have a total summary data for their housing fact! thereofore, some bad news arent disclosed. from what i heared, Spain already have problem in property market.

anyways, just shut me up.

good luck everyone
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