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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #60,961
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:12pm Apr 8, 2008 5:12pm
There was some news at 12:01am gmt which was okay for the UK, worse than last month, better than expected so created abit more down pressure than I expected.

Any hope of that EU run the happened last night happening on GU ?? Not likely I bet, was that a huge trap or what, right before a huge down day, EU would be massively down if not for that false raise.

Looks like another cunning plan is going to fail
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,962
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:20pm Apr 8, 2008 5:20pm
OKay my plan, has not failed once on back test for normal down days ie sub 100pips, but on the only 200 pip down day, 12hour knocked it down another 100pips over night from jpy selling or similar no doubt.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

Cunning plan, looking like failing

Volume is coming in, turn or stop those are the options!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,963
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:25pm Apr 8, 2008 5:25pm
Asia well someone in, is loading up on EU's every night, be aware.

Interested in GU HELL NO!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,964
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:26pm Apr 8, 2008 5:26pm
Still short....


entry...9661
limit...9608
  • #60,965
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:32pm Apr 8, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting jets211990
Still short....


entry...9661
limit...9608
this could be interesting, one long the other short...who will bank pips tonight....i know where my money is
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #60,966
  • Edited 6:21pm Apr 8, 2008 5:33pm | Edited 6:21pm
Went long on H4 open (blue arrow), clearly above the R3, and retracing from the previous H4 candle low @ 19664. As I understand your method, price should have gone to within a few pips of down Target 3 19730, but the highest it got was 19713. Not impossible for it to still make it but at the screenshot it's a full 10 hr after the entry, previously it would have made the move much earlier.

The notes under your table only refer to a breakout from the Unknown Area.

MY QUESTION: Are H4 Closes/Opens well away from the Unknown Area valid entry signals?

I based the above entry on the way price has behaved in previous cases I have observed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080408 GBP-USD H4 Abuawad failure2.gif Size: 62 KB
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,967
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:41pm Apr 8, 2008 5:41pm
Tmac, who are you betting on ?? Can I put a £10 hedge bet on Jets winning pls , I'm happy either way then


TraderJR is long to.

p.s. I'm HOPING for a trend reversal and run up, UJ and EU are both doing this GU isn't joining in on the action, I hate it when I pick the wrong pair to trade again always in the wrong pair
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,968
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:43pm Apr 8, 2008 5:43pm
Need to research Abu's method when I get a spare day, any chance TraderJR you could change the colours off the lines, being red green colour blind makes it impossible to see whats what at a glance!!

Sure others out there struggle to.

thanks
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,969
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:48pm Apr 8, 2008 5:48pm
GU's likely setting up for known bad GB numbers in the am.

EU is likely setting up for known good numbers in the am.

I'm not liking this, tis only money thankfully!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,970
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:53pm Apr 8, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Turveyd
Tmac, who are you betting on ?? Can I put a £10 hedge bet on Jets winning pls , I'm happy either way then


TraderJR is long to.

p.s. I'm HOPING for a trend reversal and run up, UJ and EU are both doing this GU isn't joining in on the action, I hate it when I pick the wrong pair to trade again always in the wrong pair
We are both traders...and it does not matter who wins...since in the long run we know how to make money in this market...this can just be one bad trade...this happends to everyone..this can be that time it happends to me... Good luck bud.
  • #60,971
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:02pm Apr 8, 2008 6:02pm
How to use the template

Drag the attached TPL file to the MT4 "templates" folder

Right click on the chart, select Templates, Abuawad

Lines will appear on the chart which match Abuawad's values and colour scheme (if not, restart MT4, open GBP/USD and try again)

Unknown Area Limits UALs are solid yellow lines, T1 thru T3 (capital T) are solid lines, Support/Resistance (S/R) lines are dotted, appropriately coloured.

Go here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=60751 to see how I have been using the method
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Abuawad .tpl   3 KB | 316 downloads
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,972
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:03pm Apr 8, 2008 6:03pm
There sure isn't any certainty in this game or ever will be, GU's as weak as a rather weak thing though.

But the markets like to surprise.


Are you profitable Jets ?? if so definately shouldn't be fighting you.

Good luck too Sir, although already a down week, I'm not risking much here £30 all in if stopped at this point, so not a huge big deal.

Likely kill it soon if no improvement though.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,973
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:07pm Apr 8, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
There sure isn't any certainty in this game or ever will be, GU's as weak as a rather weak thing though.

But the markets like to surprise.


Are you profitable Jets ?? if so definately shouldn't be fighting you.

Good luck too Sir, although already a down week, I'm not risking much here £30 all in if stopped at this point, so not a huge big deal.

Likely kill it soon if no improvement though.

yep I am profitable but that does not mean i cant loose...you can always be right...we each start of with a 50 percent chance to win...i hope i dont lose since i get 10 bucks a pip ...but in order to win you have to lose in this game..
  • #60,974
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:11pm Apr 8, 2008 6:11pm
I'm only at $2 per pip here, $10 nice hopefully 1 day I'll get to that level of debt requirements to run a losing account that high

Wouldn't say 50/50, when I took trade i figured, 70% chance of it bouncing from over sold.

Currently, EU's strong, JPY is weak, which are both good signs but still no budging here on gbp so lowering to 40% success rating here

It'll run the second i dump be warned, how much for me to stay in and lower my SL to your TP
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,975
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:16pm Apr 8, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting jets211990
yep I am profitable but that does not mean i cant loose...you can always be right...we each start of with a 50 percent chance to win...i hope i dont lose since i get 10 bucks a pip ...but in order to win you have to lose in this game..
Same here guys. I have a risk of $41 for 1 mini lot that I took long at 1.9691 in different platform (FXCM) and have a Stop Loss at 1.9650. I am currently 24 pips in loss. I can do the hedging in FXCM with 1 lot short any idea from an experienced traders at this moment.

What do you think guys. I think I can take the risk of $41 if it hit my stop loss at 1.9650 because currently it is sitting at 1.9669/1.9673 in FXCM platform.

Thanks,
  • #60,976
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:17pm Apr 8, 2008 6:17pm
Dailyfx+ pointing out the obvious!!


Sydney, April 09: The GBP/USD remains under pressure in Asia this morning and has already traded below yesterday"s 1.9665 low. The break below key support at 1.97220/30 in the wake of the extremely poor Halifax House Price data was a bearish event and initially targets a double-bottom formed at 1.9610/15.
Yesterday"s house price fall was the second biggest since records began more than 25 years ago and has put more pressure on UK home lenders and has raised expectations that the BOE will have to be aggressive in easing rates beyond Thursday"s expected rate cut.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,977
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:22pm Apr 8, 2008 6:22pm
Asyed4 hello, FXCM using here to, stops at 47 with trail set to 10, so it'll follow!!

Need to clear 9685 before i expect much buying interest, then GU will head for the 24hour sma usually @1.9745 and falling fast, EU's already broke over the 12 and tested and failed on the 24hour

Got to risk some to make some sadly.


But as we are below all my SMA levels, odds are against us I shall warn you.



Plus I'm long and having a BAD week!!

-$150 here this week currently, not had any down side in 6week prior to this Barely any losers and all of them where small
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,978
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:24pm Apr 8, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting Turveyd
I'm only at $2 per pip here, $10 nice hopefully 1 day I'll get to that level of debt requirements to run a losing account that high

Wouldn't say 50/50, when I took trade i figured, 70% chance of it bouncing from over sold.

Currently, EU's strong, JPY is weak, which are both good signs but still no budging here on gbp so lowering to 40% success rating here

It'll run the second i dump be warned, how much for me to stay in and lower my SL to your TP
I was expecting price to go up a few hours ago....the reason i took this trade was because we had a counterfibb failure...also as time is going on the 21 ema is geting closer to price...that means resistnace is geting closer...also the 21 ema 55 ema and 89 ema all show the same direction...that equeals strong sentiment in market...and the support below is from the 38.2 fibb from dILY Chart...also price broke yellow fib 61.8 that was a very strong support , this had held strong over the past weeks, and finnaly gave out.

I will show the chart showing why i took the trade....Look at the cicle...


Attached Image
  • #60,979
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:30pm Apr 8, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting Turveyd
Asyed4 hello, FXCM using here to, stops at 47 with trail set to 10, so it'll follow!!

Need to clear 9685 before i expect much buying interest, then GU will head for the 24hour sma usually @1.9745 and falling fast, EU's already broke over the 12 and tested and failed on the 24hour

Got to risk some to make some sadly.


But as we are below all my SMA levels, odds are against us I shall warn you.



Plus I'm long and having a BAD week!!

-$150 here this week currently, not had any down side in 6week prior to this Barely any losers and all of them where small
Sir, please I didn't understand you said stop loss at 1.9647 with trail set to 10 what does that mean? I didn't start my another lot for hedging should I take second lot for shorts..
  • #60,980
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:36pm Apr 8, 2008 6:36pm
have you not found FXCM's trailing stop feature ??

Got the Stop up click the trailing stop, set to 10 or above and everytime the market moves up 10pips it'll raise your stop 10, but not drop it!!!

And if the market drops back 30pips it'll have to go up 40pips before it raises it again, tis smart useful if you want to go to sleep and leave it to the trail to sort out.

ie runs up it'll follow then preserve profits
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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