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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #60,881
  • Apr 8, 2008 7:40am Apr 8, 2008 7:40am
1.9736
This was the most Important Support Level & Now see its break Now In 4-Hour Chart ...
+72 Pips So Far & More is expected......
  • #60,882
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:01am Apr 8, 2008 8:01am
Quoting nAVIN2007
its never good to go against the trend and even if it does go up! at what point are we going to be sure we have the right direction..i knew it was going down but i didnt think it would have been this much ...from now on im sticking to to trend..i just hope it does go up ...im down 40 pips already
Sorry to hear you are down, and learning with an upfront fees. All or at least majority of traders who were not involved in an istitutionalised trading house have undergone/going similar experiances. The market usualy provides one with a possibility to exit with a smaller loss, although 40pps is quite an acceptable loss to me, once I know that I am on the wrong side of the market. I tend to differenciate between the trend and direction. By direction I mean the orientation gained from studying daily/weekly charts with a particular application of Delta Phenomenon. Description of trend I am happy to borrow from DiNapoli, as "all that is above or below 3X3SMA" with the price being below this SMA - a down trend and above an uptrend, applyed on a given timeframe. If you are using MT4 there is DiNapoli template, and the fastest SMA is the one I use do describe trend on a given timeframe.
In That respect (DiNapoli settings)I pay particular attention to 4hr chart but with ammended MACD histogram. The MACD histogram on the 4hr chart provides also a very reliable sence of trend, but one has to be sensible and interpret if by other insights gained from S/R, fibo retracements and projections, DeMark settings, gearing between different timeframes and other tools one is acustom to use. I use 15min chart as my trigger, with some elements of chaos theory, Bollinger Bands and daily pivots. So fibs on 4hr chart and Pivots on 15min chart, just for speed. I use candlesticks, on all timeframes, in a way tought by S. Nison.
I do enjoy studying the market and trading is of great interest to me, I am very aware that my trading knowlage is very limited, and there is plenty of space for improvement, and put into practice what I am continually learning.
This and other forums are a good places to share and learn too, but a few well chosen books are of great value too.
I wish you many good trades.
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #60,883
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:02am Apr 8, 2008 8:02am
1.9568 first monthly support
1.9580 second weekly support

i think if cable could find support above 1.9676 ... it will fall to 1.9580 to 1.9568 ... just opinion
  • #60,884
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:05am Apr 8, 2008 8:05am
GBP/USD: Consolidating Losses sub-1.9700, FOMC Minutes Later London,
April 8. Cable is consolidating losses to a six-week low of 1.9665, with UK PM
Gordon Brown"s jawboning on UK interest rates the most recent factor to
negatively impact the pound (please see earlier story timed 12:13GMT). Brown
granted the BoE independence back in 1997 (when he was Chancellor). The BoE MPC
is expected to cut the UK base rate by 25bp to 5.0% this week (Thursday).
The Halifax"s 07:00GMT disclosure that UK house prices fell by 2.5% last
month--the biggest drop for 16 years, has been the prime cause of today"s GBP
losses. A much more modest drop of 0.4% was expected. Annualized UK house price
inflation is running at a 12-year low of 1.1%, according to the Halifax.
1.9337 (Jan 15, 10-month low) and 1.9027 are among touted bear targets south
of 1.9665. Interim objectives include 1.9642 (Feb 26 floor), 1.9610 (Feb 25
base), 1.9410 (Feb 21 low) and 1.9363 (Feb 20 floor).
1.9700 and 1.9720 are sterling resistance levels. Sell stops below 1.9720
and 1.9700 were tripped late in the London morning. 1.9815 was the pre-Halifax
house price data low. 1.9863-1.9928 was today"s Asian session range.
US February pending home sales will be unveiled at 14:00GMT, alongside
April"s US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. Pending home sales are forecast
down 0.8%. The economic optimism index is forecast to fall to 41.5, from 42.5 in
March. Minutes from the March 18 FOMC meeting, at which the Funds rate was cut
by 75bp to 2.25%, will be published at 18:00GMT.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #60,885
  • Edited 8:28am Apr 8, 2008 8:17am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting 2be
I wish you many good trades.
2be

thank u ...i cancelled the trade actually i got in way over my depth i tried to hedge but i found myself cancelling both as i cant see any sign of up..and expect a retrace but i havent got the nerve to hold a losing position..

I also use steve nisson theory for study of price action and now have decided i shall stick to large time frames ..thank u for yur advise

I just cant seem to make the right decisions when it matters....i have no idea why..so annoyed with myself .
  • #60,886
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:07am Apr 8, 2008 9:07am
Quoting nAVIN2007
thank u ...i cancelled the trade actually i got in way over my depth i tried to hedge but i found myself cancelling both as i cant see any sign of up..and expect a retrace but i havent got the nerve to hold a losing position..

I also use steve nisson theory for study of price action and now have decided i shall stick to large time frames ..thank u for yur advise

I just cant seem to make the right decisions when it matters....i have no idea why..so annoyed with myself .
dont worry,it happens. I got in at 1.9863 and exited after +20pips when it paused, stupid I could have been 176pips up! I must learn to ride the profit and cut the losses not the otherway round. BUT there is always a nother trade!
  • #60,887
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:15am Apr 8, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Runway Trade
dont worry,it happens. I got in at 1.9863 and exited after +20pips when it paused, stupid I could have been 176pips up! I must learn to ride the profit and cut the losses not the otherway round. BUT there is always a nother trade!
i know bro..its just if i listen to my own advise id make money but i always somehow do the opposite to what i should have ..its unbelieve..i decided to place a long term trade on EUR for short ...hopefully it will give a result..
  • #60,888
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:15am Apr 8, 2008 9:15am
I've been short on this pair since 1.9903. My target is 1.94My reasons for entering this trade 1) the BOE rate cut this thursday2) Descending triangle on the daily chart(the prices respected the upper trendline with lower highs)3) Institutional investors went net short on this pair last friday.A close below 1.98 would signal a breakout with the next major support at around a 1.94 which happens to be the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. I hope it all works out
  • #60,889
  • Edited Apr 9, 2008 1:43am Apr 8, 2008 9:16am | Edited Apr 9, 2008 1:43am
Quoting T 1 Ti
sorry, can u c now ? u always can zoom it by clicking on the chart
Attachment
Attachment
OK I see it now and have created a composite (see attached):

H4 candles from 5 servers (poster)

From Left to Right, then down:

Alpari UK(TraderJR) Skyeast & StraightHold (T 1 Ti) NorthFinance (mavewei) InterbankFX (abuawad)

Use the two candles (blue arrows in leftmost panel) which penetrate 19903 as reference, then check the candles to the left and right of this pair.

Compare how the candles close/open with reference to the Unknown Area yellow pricelines 19903 and 19863. This is used as a key signal/trigger in Abuawad's method.

Houston, we have a problem...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080408 GBP-USD H4 5 servers.jpg Size: 207 KB
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,890
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:17am Apr 8, 2008 9:17am
Quoting mavewei
This is mine, from NorthFinance
http://tftp.sytes.net/files/mt/gbpusd.jpg

Same with straighthold but big diff with master Abuawad
Yeah, see post #60900
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,891
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:23am Apr 8, 2008 9:23am
Quoting Runway Trade
I must learn to ride the profit and cut the losses not the otherway round. BUT there is always a nother trade!
I have been trading for two years now and i still do that. Still long on cable 1.9693
  • #60,892
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:26am Apr 8, 2008 9:26am
Quoting wattawatta
Hello evryone
Is anyone here using the Jacko system here on the GBP/USD. I am having a massive success on the EUR/USD but want to try it on the other currrencies. Does anyone here trade his system on the other two currencies. What stop loss size do you use.
TIA
hi, can u give me the link for jacko system
  • #60,893
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:33am Apr 8, 2008 9:33am
I wait the best place for long at 1.9572 - 1.9622 --> Monthly FIBO 38.2%. --> Strong support since Sept. 2006.
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #60,894
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:38am Apr 8, 2008 9:38am
Quoting mike w
Alrighty, check it out ladies and gents, I dont post here that often but this opportunity looks prime for the pickin'. Pull up your monthly charts and you can see a bearish pin bar. That is telling me one thing for this month and that is to sell. Because of that bar I won't buy until proven that we will be heading upwards and it gets negated. Now, on the daily chart you can see that we have a daily pin bar off of an area of resistance. That is confluence. Confluence means everything in this market. The trend, as Marketwaves said, is down for now. Good stuff btw man! Trading with the trend is easy and there is no reason to cut your trade short. Just let it ride out until price action tells you to get out.


?

Chyeah Chyeah. Who was rolling in those shorts with me? lol What are your exit plans going to be if your still in and why? My exit plan is going to be seen by the end of the month or at 1.95 depending how it reacts at support. There is also a support around 1.96 so I would expect a bounce back to around 1.98 before continuing lower. I'd like to see a big confirmation bar on the next monthly candle to show that more downside will be in the mix for it. Have a great day everybody.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #60,895
  • Edited 10:51am Apr 8, 2008 9:39am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting nAVIN2007
its never good to go against the trend and even if it does go up! at what point are we going to be sure we have the right direction..i knew it was going down but i didnt think it would have been this much ...from now on im sticking to to trend..i just hope it does go up ...im down 40 pips already
I don't trade today. I see more better go long at level 1.9572 - 1.9622. Strong support on Montly FIBO 38.2%. Maybe tomorrow or end of the week.
Currently I see the cable performs retracement in the unknown area 1.9699 - 1.9672 on M30 chart to make 40 pips ( Learn from Master Abuawad method analysis) till close today.
Attached Image
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #60,896
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:40am Apr 8, 2008 9:40am
Quoting manize
I wait the best place for long at 1.9572 - 1.9622 --> Monthly FIBO 38.2%.
Can anyone give me the light that is it a good time to enter into the trade or wait until it is bottom or high because BOE decision is coming up.

The second thing is looks like the trend is down. I know you can't baby sitting to any trader but I woke up late and it is right now 9:37 am in Central Zone USA and I am confused because the rate is right now 1.9680 and I am not sure which direction I will take and if it would be a good time to trade.

Any suggestion or idea will be really appreicated. I think I would wait until the Asia Session and then put a car on the second gear by looking up the trend for next session because in US session the damage has already been done and If I play with short then I wouldn't think that by 4:00 pm central zone it would break 1.9650....
Thanks,
  • #60,897
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:45am Apr 8, 2008 9:45am
Quoting asyed4
Can anyone give me the light that is it a good time to enter into the trade or wait until it is bottom or high because BOE decision is coming up.

The second thing is looks like the trend is down. I know you can't baby sitting to any trader but I woke up late and it is right now 9:37 am in Central Zone USA and I am confused because the rate is right now 1.9680 and I am not sure which direction I will take and if it would be a good time to trade.

Any suggestion or idea will be really appreicated. I think I would wait until the Asia Session and then put a car on the second gear by looking up the trend for next session because in US session the damage has already been done and If I play with short then I wouldn't think that by 4:00 pm central zone it would break 1.9650....
Thanks,
dont enter this trade now ..u missed the boat..
It might retrace or might carry on down...no idea as to which way its going ..other than down, but i dont even have a idea as to how far it already crossed the daily average so i suspect a retrace soon...but theres no sign of it yet...
  • #60,898
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:48am Apr 8, 2008 9:48am
Quoting asyed4
Can anyone give me the light that is it a good time to enter into the trade or wait until it is bottom or high because BOE decision is coming up.

The second thing is looks like the trend is down. I know you can't baby sitting to any trader but I woke up late and it is right now 9:37 am in Central Zone USA and I am confused because the rate is right now 1.9680 and I am not sure which direction I will take and if it would be a good time to trade.

Any suggestion or idea will be really appreicated. I think I would wait until the Asia Session and then put a car on the second gear by looking up the trend for next session because in US session the damage has already been done and If I play with short then I wouldn't think that by 4:00 pm central zone it would break 1.9650....
Thanks,
dont enter this trade now ..u missed the boat..
It might retrace or might carry on down...no idea as to which way its going ..other than down, but i dont even have a idea as to how far it already crossed the daily average so i suspect a retrace soon...but theres no sign of it yet...on the 1hr chart there a bullish engulfing pattern but its not at a resistance or support area so not sure if its a bounce..
  • #60,899
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:49am Apr 8, 2008 9:49am
Quoting DJ4x
I have been trading for two years now and i still do that. Still long on cable 1.9693
...interesting...what i think,...is boe cut rates, and cable rally, since it was already priced in...am i mising something, ...double cut?...hm...nah
its just money
  • #60,900
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:52am Apr 8, 2008 9:52am
Quoting nAVIN2007
dont enter this trade now ..u missed the boat..
It might retrace or might carry on down...no idea as to which way its going ..other than down, but i dont even have a idea as to how far it already crossed the daily average so i suspect a retrace soon...but theres no sign of it yet...on the 1hr chart there a bullish engulfing pattern but its not at a resistance or support area so not sure if its a bounce..

Excellent advice Navin. If you've missed out on a trading opportunity, do not try to force it or chase it. I've done that in the past and lost money by doing so. Navin, you also have another excellent point in this post although it may be a little subtle for the newer guys to understand. He talked about a price action pattern and the fact that it was in no man's land. ONly trade price action trades if there is solid confluence. Do not take a trade just because you see a pin bar or something. Look for that extra guidance coming from your charts and you'll make money. Great post man!

Also try and remember the trend for now ladies and gents, and don't go against it. You will just be limiting yourself to a small trade with a terrible risk to reward ratio.
I dream, therefore I become.
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