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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #60,521
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:22am Apr 5, 2008 8:22am
Bones,
Be careful about that bullish view you have, the jobs report came out very bearish for the dollar but the dollar gained!! this leads me to believe
the cable is going to drop hard, this was the worst jobs report in a long time for the US economy and the dollar rose!! strange forces are at work here, look for the pound to drop and drop hard in my opinion.

Quoting Bones
Well this is a possible Bullish veiw which requires a strong open
  • #60,522
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:30am Apr 5, 2008 8:30am
Quoting Bones
Im going to be honest trader1024I was thinking more like the pattern being a continuation pattern,lol
I am very aware of that bearish pin so think you are correct.
u never know ..but i think it has to break 2.0050 and close above the trend line and above the 38.2% fib line to be bullish again... also the pin bar occurred on 27 March is still in play ..so lets see how things turn out ..
Im short from the last pin bar ..close half at 1.9740 and added more at 2.0035. Have to see how 1.9740 behaves this time ..
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  • #60,523
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:57am Apr 5, 2008 8:57am
Quoting AmeriTrini
Bones,
Be careful about that bullish view you have, the jobs report came out very bearish for the dollar but the dollar gained!! this leads me to believe
the cable is going to drop hard, this was the worst jobs report in a long time for the US economy and the dollar rose!! strange forces are at work here, look for the pound to drop and drop hard in my opinion.
yeah i agree...that pin formed was right at the r1 level and on daily chart..we should drop the chart definately suggest this and am looking forward to sunday to place a short...
  • #60,524
  • Apr 5, 2008 9:00am Apr 5, 2008 9:00am
Quoting AmeriTrini
Bones,
Be careful about that bullish view you have, the jobs report came out very bearish for the dollar but the dollar gained!! this leads me to believe
the cable is going to drop hard, this was the worst jobs report in a long time for the US economy and the dollar rose!! strange forces are at work here, look for the pound to drop and drop hard in my opinion.
exactly wat ive been trying to say friday

plus we have BOE rate decision

i think we will cross that critical support(9720) this week
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #60,525
  • Apr 5, 2008 9:43am Apr 5, 2008 9:43am
RE: CycleTrader,

Visit page 4020.
Review post 60287.

This will explain the overall method and its use.
I just came across this forum last week myself; and as i was reading on how to use Abuawads' method, gbp/usd was ready for a setup. I am no expert by any means on Abuawads method, but there were 2 entries (I'm not a fan of the word signals) that his method presented last week, and both methods produced positive pips (first entry at 1.9864 SHORT produced about ~ +100 pips at some point within 4 hours; the other entry at 1.9903 LONG, produced ~+70 pips within the first 4 hours, but ultimately produced a maximum of about 145 pips at its max (unfortunately we never know the maximum); therefore the latter is a crap shoot and also 20 hrs after the entry LOL.

A) ENTER trades long WHEN 4 HR BAR opens ABOVE THE 2 YELLOW LINES. They call the area between the 2 yellow lines "no mans land". Give yourself about 5 pips of entry within the 2 yellow lines. Enter trades SHORT when the next 4hr bar opens below the 2 yellow lines.
B) The lines then above your entry are the first targets. The green lines above the yellow lines are obviously targets for longs and vice versa for the red lines. No guarantee of movement is made after that (is there ever? lol); but as I stated in the first paragraph above, the movement speaks for themselves.
C) Ride out the profits....seems so simple.

Again, I am no expert to Abuawads method, but it seems like a promising approach.
Only thing that I find to be a downfall (which has nothing at all to do with Abuawads' method, but more to do with my costly inpatients) is the wait time. With this method, you may not see an entry I suspect for days (although I am too new to this method to really have such strong opinions), although some traders enter on new 4H candle openings way after the immediate passing of no-mans land...but I never get the confidence to enter with conviction with those entries. Entering immediately after no-mans land appear to be stronger entries (at least I can only assume). I would feel more confident, but anything can happen in forex.

I, myself WILL be using this method if the setup presents itself this week.

PERSONAL THANKS TO ABUAWAD AND ALL THOSE TRADERS, WITHIN THIS FORUM AND OUT, THAT ARE SO KIND TO SHARE THEIR METHODS AND EXPERTISE. IT IS TRULY INVALUABLE; AS I LEARN SOMETHING NEW EACH AND EVERY TIME I LOG ONTO THIS WEBSITE.

Good Luck
  • #60,526
  • Apr 5, 2008 10:29am Apr 5, 2008 10:29am
Quoting AmeriTrini
Bones,
Be careful about that bullish view you have, the jobs report came out very bearish for the dollar but the dollar gained!! this leads me to believe
the cable is going to drop hard, this was the worst jobs report in a long time for the US economy and the dollar rose!! strange forces are at work here, look for the pound to drop and drop hard in my opinion.
Thanks Ameri, I will tread carefully for me to have the bullish view I need a positive weekly close say above around 1.9974.So if it opens and drops like a stone I would be wrong and selling.
I mean you have said it , these are bad figures for the US. These strange forces are capable of anything including trickery to show a bearish pin on a Friday which could rope in lots of shorts. Just the amount of pins we are getting on the Daily is really starting to concern me, LOL

First of all I have the low of that recent pin which is 1.9908 to go short say at below 1.9900.
Then I have 1.9719 as a line that needs to be crossed and closed which is a strong supporting line off my monthly chart and the base of last months, bearish monthly pin.

I haven’t forgot the last time you warned me the other week when you were 100% correct
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,527
  • Apr 5, 2008 10:48am Apr 5, 2008 10:48am
I mean Im thinking the eur-usd is still in bull mode after that correction.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,528
  • Apr 5, 2008 10:58am Apr 5, 2008 10:58am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I totally disagree if trading was just about following trends every1 would be rich..since i started trading it has been illustrated to me that price follows channels....identifying this is the key to know whats happening...

your trading style is what people follow when there trading on huge time scales....since 14/03/08 price has been falling..moving averages and indicators are all lagging but price action isnt and it doesnt suggest movement up....trading your way require massive stop losses and therefore isnt a method which people in here can employ please if u can post a chart rather than say "trend is up, buy" show yur analysis and help me identify my weekness..

as far as im concerned we are actually weeks into a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs .please expand on your analysis...
Navin, I quite understand your plight. I was once like you... we have read it on articles, website, we have heard if from good traders.. they tell you THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.. DO you know the question you are supposed to have asked...HOW DO I KNOW THE TREND... Forex is not a take one take two game.. people mistaken trend following to be following directions...NO... trend following is not just the direction... Well do more research on that and once you get that your forex trading experience will be a sweet one and fears will be removed... Let me advise you trade on larger timeframes it will help you identify the trend....
  • #60,529
  • Apr 5, 2008 12:03pm Apr 5, 2008 12:03pm
Myteax although i kinda agree on some levels, and I'm seriously Anti Indicator and most of the other GBPUSD should do X because of these lines after all if you draw enough lines on the chart some are bound to hit then your brain filters out the crap lines and 1 system sadly.

I also strongly disagree with longer time frames ( other than the daily cause enough people just trade the daily to make that work on a basic level )

The longer your trade is in time, the more variables you add in and the longer it is to predict / guesstimate the direction, which is all we are doing ( I'm doing it from a statistical point of view if X then historically Y percentage chance of Z happening )

It's easier to see short term momentum than long term trend, and you haven't got to fill you head with hours of research, it's visible if you know how to see it easily, get in, get out with profit 80% area of the time, risking very little to do so, and repeat.

SMA's work, about the only thing that does, they can be used in a none lagging manner given the right setup, as Support and Resistance ignore the speal of no they can't, because they WORK stastically proven this scientifcally as I can.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,530
  • Edited 12:49pm Apr 5, 2008 12:22pm | Edited 12:49pm
the whole upward movement is based on a disecting trendline which only can hit to points and is this enough to predict a upward movement..i can see where tony is coming from, which well friday caused a pin and this isnt really considered a valued pin cause u have to take into account sunday..

I really dont have the trading experience to know whether this is or not the case but i guess we just have to see if the disecting trendline is respected...i think the opening of sunday will determine this..

U know the more i think about the more i see where yur coming from tony ..the blue triangle is where the disecting and tom demark trendline meet it may form a great support for price to actually go up ..I learn something everyday from u guys ...


i wish us all luck and hopefully we all make good trading decisions ..
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  • #60,531
  • Apr 5, 2008 12:53pm Apr 5, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
the whole upward movement is based on a disecting trendline which only can hit to points and is this enough to predict a upward movement..i can see where tony is coming from, which well friday caused a pin and this isnt really considered a valued pin cause u have to take into account sunday..

I really dont have the trading experience to know whether this is or not the case but i guess we just have to see if the disecting trendline is respected...i think the opening of sunday will determine this..

U know the more i think about the more i see where yur coming from tony ..the blue triangle is where the disecting and tom demark trendline meet it may form a great support for price to actually go up ..I learn something everyday from u guys ...


i wish us all luck and hopefully we all make good trading decisions ..
Ya know I have put a bullish point of view across but overall the charts are bearish its just I can not see why in my mind, but of course the charts will be right just need Sunday to confirm.
I am ready to sell if price action dictates.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,532
  • Apr 5, 2008 1:09pm Apr 5, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting Bones
Ya know I have put a bullish point of view across but overall the charts are bearish its just I can not see why in my mind, but of course the charts will be right just need Sunday to confirm.
I am ready to sell if price action dictates.
yeah have to have a open mind ..im just thinking why would it go up and thats all i can see for that arguement...I think there is a fair possibility of upward movement as the blue long rectangle is a excellent support area, its been tested so many times too...
but i have to think bias is down....as we have a long shadow, pin formation at r1 level if that isnt a bearish sign i dunno what is..
sunday opening will determine everything... i shall be looking or a break of disecting trendline and TD line....then i will short (me thinks)
  • #60,533
  • Apr 5, 2008 1:50pm Apr 5, 2008 1:50pm
07-04-2008
Attached Image
  • #60,534
  • Apr 5, 2008 1:53pm Apr 5, 2008 1:53pm
Ok here’s an unbiased weekly view
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,535
  • Apr 5, 2008 4:15pm Apr 5, 2008 4:15pm
My take is range bound monday and tuesday until the FOMC minutes, no real news to wednesday.

we'll see.

I like range bound
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,536
  • Apr 5, 2008 5:16pm Apr 5, 2008 5:16pm
Quoting dread
Only thing that I find to be a downfall (which has nothing at all to do with Abuawads' method, but more to do with my costly inpatients) is the wait time. With this method, you may not see an entry I suspect for days
No, in fact you get at least one entry a day and probably more.

If H4 closes/open between the yellow lines then no entry is signalled. But anywhere else, then price moves to the next priceline in the direction indicated by preceding H4 candle(s).
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,537
  • Apr 5, 2008 5:30pm Apr 5, 2008 5:30pm
I don't understand his method, so its a S/R breakout system then ??

What set your alarm for the next 4hr close, a lot can happen in 4hrs and yet he's trading intraday doing this, strange!!

I can see why many don't believe him/it!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #60,538
  • Edited 10:47pm Apr 5, 2008 6:06pm | Edited 10:47pm
How to use the template

Drag the attached TPL file to the MT4 "templates" folder

Right click on the chart, select Templates, Abuawad

Lines will appear on the chart which match Abuawad's values and colour scheme (if not, restart MT4, open GBP/USD and try again)

Unknown Area Limits UALs are solid yellow lines, T1 thru T3 (capital T) are solid lines, Support/Resistance (S/R) lines are dotted, appropriately coloured.


How I use Abuawad's method (a work in progress, this is what I think at the moment)
Please read it all carefully

Basically Abuawad's method says: The H4 candle Close and/or next H4 candle Open indicates price will move to the next priceline in the direction indicated by the first H4 candle, provided that Open/Close is not in the Unknown Area (between the yellow lines). Price will then try to break that priceline and move to the next priceline. If it fails, it will move back to the previous priceline.

BE OUT OF ANY TRADES AT LEAST 30 MINUTES BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT NEWS RELEASE. Following a NEWS release, I'm not sure...

Any of the lines is a "priceline", and can be a "target" (small t) i.e. including UALs and S/R lines.

My rules
1. Wait for a valid signal as per the above, that it's GO for entry. If the H4 Close/Open is only a few pips from a priceline, it's prudent to look for some sort of confirmation, perhaps in the preceding H4 or H1 candles; the risk adverse will wait for the next H4 candle. I regard 5 pips or more from a trigger priceline as a clear signal.

2. Look for a good entry (e.g. price may close under the trigger indicating to go short, then move up somewhat - a great opportunity to enter)

3. StopLoss (SL): Find the priceline adjacent to the trigger priceline, and set SL equal to the adjacent priceline value plus 15 pips, away from indicated
price movement direction. If the resulting SL is less than 50 pips, it's probably a good idea to increase it to at least that.

4. TakeProfit (TP): If you are content with a "small" (but almost guaranteed) profit, set TP to the next priceline value in indicated price movement direction (1st target). It's prudent to set TP a few pips short of the target, and if in a Sell trade you must add the spread to the nominal TP.

5. If you want to try for greater profits, set T3 (up or down as appropriate) as TP, but to avoid being caught by a reversal at the 1st target, move SL to BreakEven BE when the 1st target is achieved - you might end up with 0 pips but at least won't lose anything. Simlarly trail SL if subsequent targets are achieved (maybe use the +15 pip rule above to try and avoid being stopped out early - though if price reverses, it will mean you have given up more profit).
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Abuawad .tpl   3 KB | 338 downloads
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,539
  • Apr 5, 2008 7:27pm Apr 5, 2008 7:27pm
Hi there...
I've donwload the tpl file dan install it correctly. I've also read his abuawad.pdf. but still Don't understand how to use it... Could you please post me how to read the chart? thanks...
  • #60,540
  • Apr 6, 2008 1:43am Apr 6, 2008 1:43am
Quoting Turveyd
Myteax although i kinda agree on some levels, and I'm seriously Anti Indicator and most of the other GBPUSD should do X because of these lines after all if you draw enough lines on the chart some are bound to hit then your brain filters out the crap lines and 1 system sadly.

I also strongly disagree with longer time frames ( other than the daily cause enough people just trade the daily to make that work on a basic level )

The longer your trade is in time, the more variables you add in and the longer it is to predict / guesstimate the direction, which is all we are doing ( I'm doing it from a statistical point of view if X then historically Y percentage chance of Z happening )

It's easier to see short term momentum than long term trend, and you haven't got to fill you head with hours of research, it's visible if you know how to see it easily, get in, get out with profit 80% area of the time, risking very little to do so, and repeat.

SMA's work, about the only thing that does, they can be used in a none lagging manner given the right setup, as Support and Resistance ignore the speal of no they can't, because they WORK stastically proven this scientifcally as I can.
Man, your kinda funny... you got me rolling on the floor. There is a choice to use either 4 hr, monthly,daily,weekly timeframes. it all depends on the one that favours you. This is my terminology to that.. When I use the 4 hour time frame.. I only check the market once in every four hours and if i really wanna baby sit then i can decide to use 5 min.. so it depends on the one that favours you. Dont forget what works for the goose might not work for the gender. The most important thing is whatever timeframe you use alwaYS follow the corresponding trend. When you use lower timeframe and you can identify the trend you gain more than someone using a larger timeframe.
But from experience there are alot of fake trends in lower timeframe thats why is recommended you use higher timeframes. I personally use the 4Hr time frame and its been wonderful.
Dont forget the trend is your friend and make your analysis as simple as possible. all these charts you guys are drawing makes me wonder if you really make money cos I can see that most of the guys here are confused. You will post very interesting chart and you will still say "IT MIGHT GO LONG " that MIGHT should not be there it should be IT WILL GO LONG... this is not gambling... so if your analysis is not giving you a concrete direction to follow.. I advise MAKE IT SIMPLE...
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