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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #60,501
  • Apr 4, 2008 5:43pm Apr 4, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting Abuawad
Me too...
see you gentelmen next Monday
IBFX used to have a series of great tutorials which were easy to pickup, but i couldn't find the link to them anymore. It seems they've put it in video format now:

http://www.ibfx.com/Platform/Tutorials.aspx
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #60,502
  • Edited Apr 5, 2008 2:34am Apr 4, 2008 6:54pm | Edited Apr 5, 2008 2:34am
Quoting asyed4
This is Alqaz Syed. I am also one of the traders who are in deep trouble. I also want to away from the computer for a while and you said very right "Your goal should not be to make money but rather to get confidence back ..." I am in Forex for 7 Months and I still not have confidence developed.
This might not be what you want to hear but if you are consistently making losses, you should be in demo, not live trading, until you can be consistently profitable in demo. Live trading is harder than demo, so even after that there is a battle.

First rule of trading: PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL.

This obviously applies to your money. But it also applies to your EMOTIONAL CAPITAL, your TRADING CONFIDENCE. Once you blow the latter, it can take years, if ever, to get it back (I know from experience).

In a practical sense, many traders have the rule: If you have a run of losses (even if you have been somewhat successful), go back to paper/demo trading until you can again prove to yourself that you can trade profitably, then start live trading again.

My 2¢.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #60,503
  • Apr 5, 2008 1:25am Apr 5, 2008 1:25am
I'm antipating a further drop to the short term 23.6 Fib level @ 1.9880 on Monday.
  • #60,504
  • Apr 5, 2008 4:56am Apr 5, 2008 4:56am
well looking at the daily ...i think we gonna move up to 1.9964 hit the moving average and trendline drop down 1.9863-75 area then possibily 1.9769

we were in a uptrend till we hit the top trendline now it should sink, i hope the guys that are long and risking there account on sunday night see this and bail out....unless of course im wrong (see chart )

inverted hamer on daily, confluence with top trendline which also funny enough is where the weekly pivot is ....
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  • #60,505
  • Apr 5, 2008 4:58am Apr 5, 2008 4:58am
with the pivots n stuff...

we also closed below the monthly pivot..
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  • #60,506
  • Edited 5:24am Apr 5, 2008 5:11am | Edited 5:24am
4 hr chart ...the 5 and 8 moving averages are above price also looking like there maybe a cross over toward down direction..either way its acting as resistance lines

the 1 hr chart shows a successfull bounce of top trendline but it does appear that we have bounce of 1.9912 and where it goes god only knows but the bias is down i think ..if im wrong please tell me thats why im doing this..i need to know where im going wrong

and to make matters worse 62ema is where 1.9912 is also .....if large time frames are to go by then we should overcome this support and see downhill movement on monday
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  • #60,507
  • Apr 5, 2008 5:42am Apr 5, 2008 5:42am
Quoting TraderJR
This might not be what you want to hear but if you are consistently making losses, you should be in demo, not live trading, until you can be consistently profitable in demo. Live trading is harder than demo, so even after that there is a battle.

First rule of trading: PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL.

This obviously applies to your money. But it also applies to your EMOTIONAL CAPITAL, your TRADING CONFIDENCE. Once you blow the latter, it can take years, if ever, to get it back (I know from experience).

In a practical sense, many traders have the rule: If you have a run of losses (even if you have been somewhat successful), go back to paper/demo trading until you can again prove to yourself that you can trade profitably, then start live trading again.

My 2¢.
I would second Trader JR point, that after consecutive number of larger losses, one should trade a demo, or real but with the minimum lot size. My rule is, after losing more than 10% of my trading capital(on the given real acc)I would resolve to demo trading without trading real acc. Only after 3/4 cosecutive good, positive trades of some size (eg +40pps)on the same pair at different times, I would restore the privilage of trading a live accc. Trading at your own is great but there are some pitfalls, one of them is that there is no manager over you, only your emotions. If one has consistent looses, emotion might be and usually is a very bad manager, so a hard rule is very good one to have. Demo trading and further studies of aspects of trading is a reasonable activity to keep one going forward in these trying times. No one is immune to looses but a constructive approach would only strenghten ones resolve and staying with the market (after maybe some little break) would resolve in making of a better trader.
Keep at it and best wishes,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #60,508
  • Apr 5, 2008 6:25am Apr 5, 2008 6:25am
Quoting twofeet
All, I am sharing an MT4 indicator which automatically calculates Daily Pivot/S/R levels, much like what Abuawad posts daily.

Reading the posts in the eur/usd and gbp/usd threads, I'm quite surprised to note that many do not look at these important levels. Trading with these levels for a few months has been a huge difference in performance. It greatly helps setting entries, exits, identifying divergences, etc.

Hopefully, it helps some of you make more pips too!

ps. I'm not sure who originally created this, but I retrieved it from Imran Sait's thread on the 5min GBP/JPY scalping method. All credit goes to the original authors.
On the subject of pivots Nav this one that Two feet posted is a good one. Its initially set up for daily pivots so what I have done is apply it and show the daily pivots on charts up to 4hr.Then If you apply it again and change in inputs daily sr levels to false and weekly sr levels to true and then go to visualization and tick daily and weekly you then get the weekly pivots on these time frames.
So you then have all pivots but not all on one chart as this can then get busy.
That’s how I do it now, not as I described to you before.
Knowing where price is against pivots is vital.

With regards to your analysis I think your bob on with a possible up move then down though I haven’t had time to study my charts yet.
The daily has another pin which is bearish. My only problem with it is that it’s on a short day .At this point I think I would like to see what the week close is like.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,509
  • Apr 5, 2008 6:44am Apr 5, 2008 6:44am
I wonder why you guys confuse yourselves so much on technical analysis. Forget about those things you re talking about. Base your analysis on identifying the long term trend and follow it. forget about the EMA's and stuphs (they are all lagging) they will only follow the price. but the trend is alway ahead of the price. IDENTIFY THE TREND AND FOLLOW IT. THE TREND IS STILL LONG BOTH GU AND GJ. its just undergoing a minor short but the overall trend is long for now. and the great support is at 1.972X... Good luck to guys that are "short" and Guys that are long. Laterz
  • #60,510
  • Apr 5, 2008 7:01am Apr 5, 2008 7:01am
Quoting myteax
I wonder why you guys confuse yourselves so much on technical analysis. Forget about those things you re talking about. Base your analysis on identifying the long term trend and follow it. forget about the EMA's and stuphs (they are all lagging) they will only follow the price. but the trend is alway ahead of the price. IDENTIFY THE TREND AND FOLLOW IT. THE TREND IS STILL LONG BOTH GU AND GJ. its just undergoing a minor short but the overall trend is long for now. and the great support is at 1.972X... Good luck to guys that are "short" and Guys that are long. Laterz
I totally disagree if trading was just about following trends every1 would be rich..since i started trading it has been illustrated to me that price follows channels....identifying this is the key to know whats happening...

your trading style is what people follow when there trading on huge time scales....since 14/03/08 price has been falling..moving averages and indicators are all lagging but price action isnt and it doesnt suggest movement up....trading your way require massive stop losses and therefore isnt a method which people in here can employ please if u can post a chart rather than say "trend is up, buy" show yur analysis and help me identify my weekness..

as far as im concerned we are actually weeks into a downtrend, lower lows and lower highs .please expand on your analysis...
  • #60,511
  • Apr 5, 2008 7:09am Apr 5, 2008 7:09am
Quoting Bones
On the subject of pivots Nav this one that Two feet posted is a good one. Its initially set up for daily pivots so what I have done is apply it and show the daily pivots on charts up to 4hr.Then If you apply it again and change in inputs daily sr levels to false and weekly sr levels to true and then go to visualization and tick daily and weekly you then get the weekly pivots on these time frames.
So you then have all pivots but not all on one chart as this can then get busy.
That’s how I do it now, not as I described to you before.
Knowing where price is against pivots is vital.

With regards to your analysis I think your bob on with a possible up move then down though I haven’t had time to study my charts yet.
The daily has another pin which is bearish. My only problem with it is that it’s on a short day .At this point I think I would like to see what the week close is like.
thx man thats much better...definately makes life easier..
  • #60,512
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:03am Apr 5, 2008 8:03am
On the trend issue there is a lot of confusion which I am only just coming to terms with myself. It really depends on what Time Frame you trade as Nav is saying and I would say generally the immediate trend is down.

I do not know why this is as I believe that the US is in way more trouble than the UK.
I am not seeing mass problems with our housing other than its overpriced and although I am a homeowner I would like to see some pull back in prices or there could be a crash. When you look at the drops we have had so far they a so small compared to recent rises. Also the employment figures coming out of the US have been really bad giving the possibility of further interest rate cuts.

I suppose a lot of fundies will be looking at these types of problems coming our way.

Like I say the week close on Sunday will be interesting.
A few weeks back when we closed on a Friday we had a double bar high lower close on the Daily just after price touched the 2.0396 and then I was not sure whether to trust the Friday close.
In actual fact that price action worked out as it should giving a very bearish following week.
If Sunday is very bullish I may not consider this Friday’s bearish bar valid straight away and will look to Monday.
The most conservative way to play the Friday bar is to sell the break of its base +10pips.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,513
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:08am Apr 5, 2008 8:08am
Anyone know anything about W pattens?Is that a possble one above?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,514
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:14am Apr 5, 2008 8:14am
is this country is in massive debt much more than america and the big player over there are pulling out because things are bad and here we are suffering..i dont know the ins and outs of it but thats the jist of it...

hence why we could be droping, also possible £ is over valued and we depend on america for stuff (im just throwing things in the air...LOL) and if our rates dont drop inports maybe be inhibited....
  • #60,515
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:23am Apr 5, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Bones
Anyone know anything about W pattens?Is that a possble one above?
yea Bones ..Bearish Gartley Pattern is formed on the daily & 4hr. and bearish Pin bar on the daily off the 150ema. But cable has to break 1.9740 area to break down ...its been getting lot of support around that area .. Next week should be interesting .Lets see how it works out ...
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  • #60,516
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:34am Apr 5, 2008 8:34am
Quoting nAVIN2007
is this country is in massive debt much more than america and the big player over there are pulling out because things are bad and here we are suffering..i dont know the ins and outs of it but thats the jist of it...

hence why we could be droping, also possible £ is over valued and we depend on america for stuff (im just throwing things in the air...LOL) and if our rates dont drop inports maybe be inhibited....
Well im not sure if the UK have more debt than the US (That’s Allserene’s department)but the credit crunch there is definitely having an adverse affect on us.
Why is the pound overvalued? The past 3 months have closed right here and price has been here many times in the long term past (80s,90s)
I am throwing things in the air to …lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,517
  • Apr 5, 2008 8:38am Apr 5, 2008 8:38am
Quoting trader1024
yea Bones ..Bearish Gartley Pattern is formed on the daily & 4hr. and bearish Pin bar on the daily off the 150ema. But cable has to break 1.9740 area to break down ...its been getting lot of support around that area .. Next week should be interesting .Lets see how it works out ...
Hey thats great ,thanks for that.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,518
  • Apr 5, 2008 9:11am Apr 5, 2008 9:11am
Im going to be honest trader1024I was thinking more like the pattern being a continuation pattern,lol
I am very aware of that bearish pin so think you are correct.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #60,519
  • Apr 5, 2008 9:41am Apr 5, 2008 9:41am
Very long thread but I found the post regarding "Abuawad levels" interesting. I have searched looking for the original post on this method hoping to find:

1) detailed instructions on how to use them

2) information as to how they are calculated

3) when are his levels normally posted

If anyone can point me to a post number that explains these things, it would be appreciated.

Thank you.

CT
  • #60,520
  • Apr 5, 2008 10:15am Apr 5, 2008 10:15am
Well this is a possible Bullish veiw which requires a strong open
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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