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  • #6,101
  • Apr 1, 2008 9:25am Apr 1, 2008 9:25am
If that channel I drew and attached here earlier is right, then it just got broken and we're in for a rather quick ride to 1.55..

Historical resistance at 570
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #6,102
  • Apr 1, 2008 9:59am Apr 1, 2008 9:59am
The bigger picture as I see it..
http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/aa9fd1198c.jpg
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #6,103
  • Apr 1, 2008 10:16am Apr 1, 2008 10:16am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Theres a trend line at 1.5545/55 range. Maybe there, but if that breaks, look out below

Well it took a hop(not yet a bounce) when it neared the above range. But USD news was positive so holding with 50 pip trailed s/l.

I don't know what time this oil thing is supposed to happen, only caught a quick sound bite on it. Watching CNN now to see if they mention it.
  • #6,104
  • Apr 1, 2008 10:28am Apr 1, 2008 10:28am
If oil drops below 98.79$ look out
  • #6,105
  • Apr 1, 2008 10:48am Apr 1, 2008 10:48am
Senior executives from the top five U.S. oil companies are meeting with frustrated lawmakers today on Capitol Hill, where they will defend the government's billions in federal subsidies while the companies rake in massive profits. The companies, which include ExxonMobil Corp., Shell Oil Co., BP America Inc., Chevron Corp., and ConocoPhillips, together earned about $123 billion last year because of soaring oil and gasoline prices. Oil industry leaders have previously argued in Washington that tax breaks are needed to ensure continued investment in exploration, production, and refinery expansions. President Bush has pledged to veto any bill that singles out the industry.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/news-des...il-1-2008.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005367.html?.v=1

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/sha...reaks_for.html
  • #6,106
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:30am Apr 1, 2008 11:30am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Theres a trend line at 1.5545/55 range. Maybe there, but if that breaks, look out below.
I see it a bit lower nearer 55 but on this scale and with these charts it's reasonable accuracy I suppose, going to pull out of my small shorts a bit lower and wait to see if we get below 55
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #6,107
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:44am Apr 1, 2008 11:44am
Quoting Fx_Genius
Senior executives from the top five U.S. oil companies are meeting with frustrated lawmakers today on Capitol Hill, where they will defend the government's billions in federal subsidies while the companies rake in massive profits. The companies, which include ExxonMobil Corp., Shell Oil Co., BP America Inc., Chevron Corp., and ConocoPhillips, together earned about $123 billion last year because of soaring oil and gasoline prices. Oil industry leaders have previously argued in Washington that tax breaks are needed to ensure continued investment in exploration, production, and refinery expansions. President Bush has pledged to veto any bill that singles out the industry.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/news-des...il-1-2008.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005367.html?.v=1

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/sha...reaks_for.html

Yea, this years profits, and the years to come, they said may never look as good as last years.
Plus we have truck drivers on strike and oil sales starting today will show dramatic losses, and the truckers demand prices go down.

Like I said few days ago. If the prices keep going up we'll just stop buying it.
There talking a 1 week strike. Just 1 day means millions, maybe billions of revenue lost. Imagine a week.
  • #6,108
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:45am Apr 1, 2008 11:45am
from price perspective,...1.5600 was tested from up to down,..and down to up, and then up to down,...then down to up...and now we are above,...and it looks like it has tested it enough times,...to become support...
its just money
  • #6,109
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:46am Apr 1, 2008 11:46am
I am watching oil prices, and there not falling below 100.
I'd be worried about now, and be taking long profits on oil if I had it.
  • #6,110
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:48am Apr 1, 2008 11:48am
I think the market is waiting on oil. Oil is correlating with euro$ almost exactly right now.
  • #6,111
  • Apr 1, 2008 12:31pm Apr 1, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
I think the market is waiting on oil. Oil is correlating with euro$ almost exactly right now.
Agreed, waiting on oil.

In watching both oil & E$, something has changed in the past 10-20 minutes.
I have been following oil with E$ for a while and it seems that as oil is going up from +$0.25 to $0.90 the E$ went down 3-4 pips. I know this is a very small move but the tie can be seen. As I am writing oil went to +$0.60 and E$ dropped 2 pips. Could the tie be flipped from the past few weeks? Oil up E$ down instead of oil up E$ up? Maybe it's just lag in setting up for a run down.
  • #6,112
  • Apr 1, 2008 12:38pm Apr 1, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
Agreed, waiting on oil.

In watching both oil & E$, something has changed in the past 10-20 minutes.
I have been following oil with E$ for a while and it seems that as oil is going up from +$0.25 to $0.90 the E$ went down 3-4 pips. I know this is a very small move but the tie can be seen. As I am writing oil went to +$0.60 and E$ dropped 2 pips. Could the tie be flipped from the past few weeks? Oil up E$ down instead of oil up E$ up? Maybe it's just lag in setting up for a run down.
I just saw the same thing and wondered. Oil was ticking down and eur$ was ticking up. I think the oil charts lag more than if its on your live trading platform.
  • #6,113
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 1, 2008 1:09pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
I just saw the same thing and wondered. Oil was ticking down and eur$ was ticking up. I think the oil charts lag more than if its on your live trading platform.
I think your right about the lag. Real time crude oil feed.

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

See image for settings.

Still seems flipped with realtime.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cl.png Size: 38 KB
  • #6,114
  • Apr 1, 2008 1:35pm Apr 1, 2008 1:35pm
Hi to all,

Well after some reluctance, the EURUSD went down and it looks as it will continue down for some time now.

My initial position was taken out by the huge spike recently and I re-entered at almost the same value of my initial position - that's ironic right?

I know feel more confident that the EURUSD will continue downward towards the 1.50 area, the figure doesn't matter that much as long as we are riding the downward trend which I think is slowly establishing.

My timeframes are as always 4H and 1D, with a more in-depth focus on the daily chart due to my dayjob.

I am wondering if there are also EURUSD longs still betting that the EU will continue upwwards as I personally believe that EU will head downwards, just my opinion backed by the last days price action.

Well this is my current view, thanks for taking the time to read and connect.

All the best from Bucharest (partially upside down by the NATO / OTAN reunion these days, but it's okay though).

Bogdan.
  • #6,115
  • Apr 1, 2008 1:57pm Apr 1, 2008 1:57pm
multa bafta grigore

Good luck grigore
  • #6,116
  • Apr 1, 2008 2:12pm Apr 1, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting de123
there are many news this week,..bernarke,trichet, nfp week,...unemployments....and yes im buying dips,...testing swing system...hope i could make some swing above 1.566s..and hello to romania,..mioveni dacia is on strike 2...
I have reloaded smal EU longs from here...here little pullback is expected and then again Dip, Will re-load again before ADP..
Targets same like before 1.60-3..
Have a nice trade
P.S 61% fib level retracment of previous Bull move has been almost completed..
  • #6,117
  • Apr 1, 2008 3:42pm Apr 1, 2008 3:42pm
Gold is under 890... That's bad for eur/usd. For example, look at the last week: when usd felt to the 1.53 gold was higher than 900, so that gave a chance that usd will grow, but now gold is under the level, so i think eur/usd will go to the 1.5
Fundamental >> tachnical My ICQ# 318501111
  • #6,118
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:08pm Apr 1, 2008 7:08pm
Quoting AlexeyN
Gold is under 890... That's bad for eur/usd. For example, look at the last week: when usd felt to the 1.53 gold was higher than 900, so that gave a chance that usd will grow, but now gold is under the level, so i think eur/usd will go to the 1.5
I agree, or at least feel that it will head in that direction. With Bernanke's speech to the JECC tomorrow and a slightly better than expected ADP, EU would be highly volatile and potentially continuing this slight downturn. How low will she go? Wouldn't be looking for answers here if I knew that... happy trading to all
  • #6,119
  • Apr 1, 2008 8:04pm Apr 1, 2008 8:04pm
Euro$ looks heavy. Before it would have bounced, but now id still pressing on the support area. Still a possible rally to the pivot to get a running start. If it don't reach the pivot, and continues down, then the move is even stronger then it looks.
  • #6,120
  • Apr 1, 2008 8:08pm Apr 1, 2008 8:08pm
Heres chart. testing trend line.



http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/4...lytrendwx8.gif
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