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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #59,221
  • Mar 23, 2008 9:09am Mar 23, 2008 9:09am
now zoomed in 1.9820.....can be seen a a support area..and price has closed below it ....looks bearish to me.....not bullish!
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  • #59,222
  • Mar 23, 2008 9:16am Mar 23, 2008 9:16am
Quoting nAVIN2007
now zoomed in 1.9820.....can be seen a a support area..and price has closed below it ....looks bearish to me.....not bullish!
Navin a candle closing below the suppor line is never alone a bearish/bullish sign, the major reason is what we call support and resistance "lines" are merely "areas" where the price has been finding res/support, the lines are drawn to give us an idea. for this reaqson only there is no exact science of how to draw trendlines or ppz's the correct way...the general idea is to find an area where the price has been constantly finding some resistance to where it wants to go, a line is then drawn to guide you...thus that candle closing below the ppz is no singal atall, maybe another nice bear candle with a tiny to non-existant lower wick would better confirm your thoguhts.


look at the chart you posted did you see a bullish candle closing above the ppz?? what happened afterward, the price shot back, had you taken that trade it would have made you sweat.... fortunatley it found support at 61.8 fib below to bounce once again...
I believe . . .
  • #59,223
  • Edited 11:45am Mar 23, 2008 9:32am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting ghous
Navin a candle closing below the suppor line is never alone a bearish/bullish sign, the major reason is what we call support and resistance "lines" are merely "areas" where the price has been finding res/support, the lines are drawn to give us an idea. for this reaqson only there is no exact science of how to draw trendlines or ppz's the correct way...the general idea is to find an area where the price has been constantly finding some resistance to where it wants to go, a line is then drawn to guide you...thus that candle closing below the ppz is no singal atall, maybe another nice bear candle with a tiny to non-existant lower wick would better confirm your thoguhts.


look at the chart you posted did you see a bullish candle closing above the ppz?? what happened afterward, the price shot back, had you taken that trade it would have made you sweat.... fortunatley it found support at 61.8 fib below to bounce once again...
I know what u mean but this is eactly why i said its a no trading area..but the force lies more with the bears ..there in more control..price is bouncing between 2 fib levels can any say theres a confirmation? ..

trend is yur friend and ..we definately in a downtrend..i say look to sell or wait for bounce to buy ..
  • #59,224
  • Edited 12:30pm Mar 23, 2008 11:53am | Edited 12:30pm
hi guyz, hope you guys enjoy ur easter celebration? navin thanks for ur complement. we need pple like u in these forum. i think i was able to make all i mad with the support of u guyz in this forum.

If i may say yes to point sharing between u and ghors. is qiut understandable. but for now i think we are heading 1.9725 that is daily 61.8fib. a close below that fib. will push us down to 1.9596 which is on the 38.2 weekly fib. b/4 we can now see a bounds again. and the three straigth bearish engulfing candle stick. and with a bearish pin bar we are having on the 1hr chart. also look @ the 2/8mas, all to the down-side. news can fail but this candle sticks can`t on the chart.
but is just my own opinion... thanks for reading through....







quote=nAVIN2007;1917474]I know what u mean but this is eactly why i said its a no trading area..but the force lies more with the bears ..there in more control..price is bouncing between 2 fib levels can any say theres a confirmation? ..[/quote]
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  • #59,225
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:09pm Mar 23, 2008 12:09pm
thx for the compliment

its really a dangerous trade but the odds are in yur favour to sell above us is a confluence of fibs which we bounced of...the 61.8 is the place to buy i think ..but otherwise ..its going to be choppy...
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  • #59,226
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:22pm Mar 23, 2008 12:22pm
As a pattern trader I'm going for the H&S. Of course there are might be retracements, but I will go for the main target ---> 9500 area.
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  • #59,227
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:24pm Mar 23, 2008 12:24pm
Well I get :-

Resistance @1.9880
Support @1.9780 Then 1.9735


Daily charts wise, bearish buy sitting on the 50sma line and oversold.

Although i feel any predictions >30mins are useless in these conditions, market pyscology wise the worst outcome for the retail trader would be a higher low put in here with a move to retest 2.0390 and likely new recent highs. ( Losses for Retail = profit for Funds ) so i'm expecting a bounce after 1 move lower to sucker in the shorts!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #59,228
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:37pm Mar 23, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting Carrera
As a pattern trader I'm going for the H&S. Of course there are might be retracements, but I will go for the main target ---> 9500 area.
Looks great Carrera could you tell me what point that H&S pattern is invalidated as Im not sure I want to trade against it lol
(I do have the 9500 as my lower target)
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #59,229
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:37pm Mar 23, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting Carrera
As a pattern trader I'm going for the H&S. Of course there are might be retracements, but I will go for the main target ---> 9500 area.

I second this!!!

  • #59,230
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:41pm Mar 23, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting Carrera
As a pattern trader I'm going for the H&S. Of course there are might be retracements, but I will go for the main target ---> 9500 area.

yur graphs bro are the best in forex factory...i love seeing them
  • #59,231
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:46pm Mar 23, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
yur graphs bro are the best in forex factory...i love seeing them

i second that
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #59,232
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:48pm Mar 23, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting AmeriTrini
I second this!!!

Hi Ameri how do you feel about the interest rate differential now?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #59,233
  • Edited 12:57pm Mar 23, 2008 12:51pm | Edited 12:57pm
yes i agree with u on that level but the force on the down-side are quit gr8t. the market closed on 200sma on the 4hrs chart which may result to a buy if the next 4hrs opened and closed above the 200sma. i think that will be the bounce u are talking about... that is the market for us all u know....









Quoting nAVIN2007
thx for the compliment

its really a dangerous trade but the odds are in yur favour to sell above us is a confluence of fibs which we bounced of...the 61.8 is the place to buy i think ..but otherwise ..its going to be choppy...
  • #59,234
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:57pm Mar 23, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting Bones
Hi Ameri how do you feel about the interest rate differential now?

Bones,

The greenback is the second lowest yielding currency right now. That will change though, interest rates will climb just as fast as they went down as soon as the housing market stabilizes and it is showing signs of this.

Happy trading bro!!

  • #59,235
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:59pm Mar 23, 2008 12:59pm
Right now cable 1.9785.maybe we will have a little gap on the opening.
  • #59,236
  • Mar 23, 2008 12:59pm Mar 23, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting AmeriTrini
Bones,

The greenback is the second lowest yielding currency right now. That will change though, interest rates will climb just as fast as they went down as soon as the housing market stabilizes and it is showing signs of this.

Happy trading bro!!

thats exactly wat i think but we will have a couple of months headstart.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #59,237
  • Mar 23, 2008 1:01pm Mar 23, 2008 1:01pm
I actually think they'll drop the interest rates further and keep them low @1% reason being it's good for economic growth, the USA wants to keep it's standing of no.1 wealth wise, China is catching up fast though they will not be happy with 2nd place, there is a new cold war going on!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #59,238
  • Mar 23, 2008 1:03pm Mar 23, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting Turveyd
I actually think they'll drop the interest rates further and keep them low @1% reason being it's good for economic growth, the USA wants to keep it's standing of no.1 wealth wise, China is catching up fast though they will not be happy with 2nd place, there is a new cold war going on!!

I begg to differ on this, they must keep the IR at the level they desire for inflation which is 2%.
  • #59,239
  • Mar 23, 2008 1:08pm Mar 23, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting AmeriTrini
Bones,

The greenback is the second lowest yielding currency right now. That will change though, interest rates will climb just as fast as they went down as soon as the housing market stabilizes and it is showing signs of this.

Happy trading bro!!

Brother i wish you posted more ,lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #59,240
  • Mar 23, 2008 1:12pm Mar 23, 2008 1:12pm
Ahhh but the best way to lower relatively consumer debt is to let inflation run wild for a few months/years.

if inflation goes up say 20% for a easy number then :-

Wages go up 20%
Costs of everything go up 20%
Credit card debt / repayments remain the same.
Freeing up 20% more credit to spend effectively keeping the economy going longer.

It would also offset the rising oil costs.

They did it in the 70's they can and will most likely do it again.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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