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39/39 HI/LO SYSTEM

  • #181
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:50pm Mar 20, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting Poocher
Hope all's well for your family now!
Thank you, father inlaw had a heart attack. He has another going against him......he is too weak for surgery, due to toxins in his body because of kidney failure. For now, he is hanging in there.

I will be checking in once in awhile. I only ask that foward results be posted with the method, that way we can advance this system, thanks.
  • #182
  • Mar 21, 2008 12:54am Mar 21, 2008 12:54am
Quoting jr2007
Thank you, father inlaw had a heart attack. He has another going against him......he is too weak for surgery, due to toxins in his body because of kidney failure. For now, he is hanging in there.

I will be checking in once in awhile. I only ask that foward results be posted with the method, that way we can advance this system, thanks.
Jr, sorry to hear this. I wish you the best
  • #183
  • Mar 21, 2008 1:38pm Mar 21, 2008 1:38pm
It looks like I'll be finishing the week out with a small loss, or possibly breakeven. Jr's system isn't solely to blame here. But in conjunction with some other things I have trading, I managed to get up to about a 25% gain on the account this week, only to see it all given back. Honestly, I was not able to make all the adjustments for turning trades on and off when I wanted to. Sometimes that worked for me, but mostly against, I think.

I've become pretty ambivilent about the SHI SilverTrend indicator we have been using. Over the last week, watching it repaint on all of the pairs I am monitoring (and I am trying to watch them ALL), I can only conclude one thing. This indicator is VERY pessemistic. To much so to be useful, I fear.

On a typical day this indicator will be shouting that the market should be coming out of whatever trend it seems to be in. If it gets it wrong on a given day, it might decide to turn off... leaving you to think that you are back to the original trend. And you may well be, but as soon as the market begins to retrace, it will flash against the trend again. If the market continues with the trend for a couple more days, the indicator will turn off from the bar you've been seeing it on, and move forward to the current or last bar, still shouting the move is over. Like a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, eventually this indicator correctly shows where the trend reversed. And that dot will stick. But almost immediately, the indicator starts showing you that this new trend is ending. And once again, it keeps adjusting and repeating that message until it comes true. This is why it always looks like it is a spot on prediction in the past. In the short periods of time (and I mean REALLY short -- just a few hours), that it doesn't paint against the trend, if the trend is strong enough, you can make a killing. If you have the time and BALLS to sit around and watch for this condition it might make for a good method on its own... but maybe not. It just doesn't happen very often, and it is a very fleeting thing. It leaves no evidence, so you can't look back and see it, to see how long it lasted. It might only be 1 to 3 hours... I just don't know.

Some really smart programmer like Hayseed could maybe find a way to trap that condition to see if it can be exploited, but I fear that might be a lot of work for what might ultimately be too limited an opportunity.

So, I have decided to part ways with SHI SilverTrend, and I urge everybody else to reconsider.

So, I'm investigating an alternative... or actually a combination of indicators as a possible alternative, to be used in conjunction with the LSAR, which I do think has value.

More to follow...
  • #184
  • Mar 21, 2008 2:00pm Mar 21, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting Qman
It looks like I'll be finishing the week out with a small loss, or possibly breakeven. Jr's system isn't solely to blame here. But in conjunction with some other things I have trading, I managed to get up to about a 25% gain on the account this week, only to see it all given back. Honestly, I was not able to make all the adjustments for turning trades on and off when I wanted to. Sometimes that worked for me, but mostly against, I think.

I've become pretty ambivilent about the SHI SilverTrend indicator we have been using. Over the last week, watching it repaint on all of the pairs I am monitoring (and I am trying to watch them ALL), I can only conclude one thing. This indicator is VERY pessemistic. To much so to be useful, I fear.

On a typical day this indicator will be shouting that the market should be coming out of whatever trend it seems to be in. If it gets it wrong on a given day, it might decide to turn off... leaving you to think that you are back to the original trend. And you may well be, but as soon as the market begins to retrace, it will flash against the trend again. If the market continues with the trend for a couple more days, the indicator will turn off from the bar you've been seeing it on, and move forward to the current or last bar, still shouting the move is over. Like a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, eventually this indicator correctly shows where the trend reversed. And that dot will stick. But almost immediately, the indicator starts showing you that this new trend is ending. And once again, it keeps adjusting and repeating that message until it comes true. This is why it always looks like it is a spot on prediction in the past. In the short periods of time (and I mean REALLY short -- just a few hours), that it doesn't paint against the trend, if the trend is strong enough, you can make a killing. If you have the time and BALLS to sit around and watch for this condition it might make for a good method on its own... but maybe not. It just doesn't happen very often, and it is a very fleeting thing. It leaves no evidence, so you can't look back and see it, to see how long it lasted. It might only be 1 to 3 hours... I just don't know.

Some really smart programmer like Hayseed could maybe find a way to trap that condition to see if it can be exploited, but I fear that might be a lot of work for what might ultimately be too limited an opportunity.

So, I have decided to part ways with SHI SilverTrend, and I urge everybody else to reconsider.

So, I'm investigating an alternative... or actually a combination of indicators as a possible alternative, to be used in conjunction with the LSAR, which I do think has value.

More to follow...
Thanks Qman,

I am in the same thought process as you. I added another indicator in conjuction with the other indicators. I appreciate your efforts in testing the Indicators. For now, I will continue to find something that may help this system. for now here is what I have added.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1206125935
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ###Gann_HiLo_Activator_v2###.ex4   2 KB | 439 downloads
  • #185
  • Mar 21, 2008 3:00pm Mar 21, 2008 3:00pm
Well, I had a long post all ready to go explaining everything I'm showing on the attached chart, and blew it up trying to get it altogether. So, I will explain, but I am at work right now (and being a VERY bad boy...)

Attached are a chart kind of showing my thinking. And the QTSF indicator (which you should set up with a 20 TSFper, and a Offset of 3 to match the chart).

JR, I see your post about GANN. I've used it in the past. Haven't played with it in a couple of months. Didn't fit what I was doing back then. Might have another look.

QTSF is the TSF indicator somebody else did on FF. I've just added the Offset capability, which was missing. I first found this indicator when I was demo trading on GTFX. Standard on their platform, and it had an offset. I think you need the offset to make it more useful. If you play with it you can see you can make it fit different market types, but not all. Set correctly, it is a great indicator for getting you out (or letting you back into) a real long trending move. It is a function borrowed from engineering of all sorts. Sort of a cross between PSAR and a MA... sort of.

Briefly, I say, turn the EA on when there is a confirmed trend where price has crossed both the SMA depicted and the QTSF. Consider LSAR as Resistance/Support until it is taken out... so if you can't make a profit with you EA before hitting this line, better turn it off (or even wait and take the reverse EA setting (short only if you were long only) for a day or two -- until you touch the SMA/QTSF.

You must watch price action! Simply must... It is a daily chart. Make your plan once a day. But analysis might indicate you should wait to a certain price to turn on one way or the other.

Sorry, my lost post was much better. I hope to clear it up later today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3939Help.jpg Size: 93 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 QTSF.mq4   3 KB | 483 downloads
File Type: ex4 QTSF.ex4   3 KB | 380 downloads
  • #186
  • Mar 21, 2008 3:11pm Mar 21, 2008 3:11pm
Sorry, another point about the indicators I'm planning to experiment with next week. In case you are not noticing... the closer QTSF, 10SMA, and LSAR are to each other, moving more or less perpendicular and horizontally...duh, most likely there is no exploitable trend, no matter how much price is moving. If you are not good with price analysis in these areas, this action is going to chop you to pieces. Wait for a breakout, then jump on. If you are not sure, trade some other pair.
  • #187
  • Mar 21, 2008 4:01pm Mar 21, 2008 4:01pm
hey qman..... didn't want to say anything, but indicators that repaint always leave me second guessing any decision based on them.....

psar is a fair trend sensor.....

you can create indicators that will combine other indicators, like we did for the pipnailer, to visually check signals or email alerts..... they come in handy.....

i'm fixin to move to another forum where i have more creative control, but you can still pm me if yall need something coded here...... take care.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #188
  • Mar 22, 2008 12:03pm Mar 22, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting Qman
Sorry, another point about the indicators I'm planning to experiment with next week. In case you are not noticing... the closer QTSF, 10SMA, and LSAR are to each other, moving more or less perpendicular and horizontally...duh, most likely there is no exploitable trend, no matter how much price is moving. If you are not good with price analysis in these areas, this action is going to chop you to pieces. Wait for a breakout, then jump on. If you are not sure, trade some other pair.
Hey Qman, thought I would throw this your way. In an effort to find a solution to a descent trend indicator that can help this system, I went web surfing. I came upon an article about the ADX, and the specifics around it. So I proceeded to run it through some preliminary tests. Looks pretty good. Take a look/see. Once again, using the Daily Chart (have not tried the 4hr as of yet.), and the 5 minute chart for the EA, its giving some pretty good results. I tried a few other indicators, but kept coming back to this one. I PM'd Hayseed about possibly creating a second EA that would use this Indicator to strictly close all trades and keep from other trades re-opening until one re-adjusts. This would be based on 1 pair.


The ideal situation would be for the ADX to give the signal for Short only/Long only on a Daily (or 4hr) chart, placing the first EA on a GBPJPY 5min chart. When the signal is hit on the ADX Daily (or 4hr) chart for an exit, the second EA on this chart will close all trades on that pair, and both EAs would remain closed until one re-opens.

I might of asked for a tall order, but I'll never know unless I ask.

For the meantime, I will be using the ADX this coming week, and will post my results.
  • #189
  • Mar 22, 2008 8:24pm Mar 22, 2008 8:24pm
JR, ADX is a great trend indicator. However, you must keep in mind that it is working a little differently here on the forex side. In equities and futures, ADX is reporting the actual cumulated amount of orders in a given bar. In forex ADX is only reporting the number of trades. It doesn't know if it was 1000 1 contract trades, or 1000 5 contract trades, or 1000 .2 contract trades. You are only seeing that there was activity. You don't get the full monty.
  • #190
  • Mar 22, 2008 9:06pm Mar 22, 2008 9:06pm
Quoting Qman
JR, ADX is a great trend indicator. However, you must keep in mind that it is working a little differently here on the forex side. In equities and futures, ADX is reporting the actual cumulated amount of orders in a given bar. In forex ADX is only reporting the number of trades. It doesn't know if it was 1000 1 contract trades, or 1000 5 contract trades, or 1000 .2 contract trades. You are only seeing that there was activity. You don't get the full monty.
Ok. So far I like the back test that I've done. I'm crossing my fingers that I get the same results on foward tests. Thanks.
  • #191
  • Mar 22, 2008 10:18pm Mar 22, 2008 10:18pm
Hi, Is there a template you run with this.????
  • #192
  • Mar 23, 2008 11:39am Mar 23, 2008 11:39am
hey jr..... adx has never given good results in my back tests over the years.... moving averages , psar , moving averages of willr or rsi and such seem far smoother and do tend to be reliable....

if your using a higher time frame as the filter, the lower timeframe signal needs to be frequent as possible..... also it helps to bump up the profit target and stoploss to targets more in line with the figures of the higher timeframe filter..... if you think about it, using the monthly chart as a trend filter but having a 20 pip profit target or a 40 pip stoploss and a signal that only comes once a week is self defeating.... bump up the targets.....

we can have the stoploss adjust somewhat to the current chart.... such as, let's say our normal stoploss is 140, then if the psar on the fourhour chart swings to a sell signal, we can drop the stoploss down to maybe 80..... just as a safety check....

if we decide the trend is up, it might be better to pull the signal moving average down to 10 or there abouts.... that ensures more signals and if the trend is up, we don't need to be killing time watin.....

here's the deal on 'TrailingStopStart'...
it takes some time to see it but in reality, often times settings , stoploss, profitargets, are just a best fit to past price action..... if we decide that 100 is the 'best fit' profittarget, there will be times when 100 will cut us short.... it might be of value to set the profit target at 200, and also set a trailing stop of , maybe 40, but start that stop at 120..... you'll have to play with it abit to get the feel.....


the setting dailymaxorders sets the number of orders allowed per day..... on the 5 minute chart, you might have a dozen signals per day before any close.... so this keeps the number of orders opened per day under control....

the maxlongorders and maxshortorders, limit the total number of orders..... these settings are very important..... if the dailymaxorders is set to 10 and the maxlongorders is set to 2, only 2 will open..... it makes a huge impact, so be sure to set these to your true wishes....


there is plenty of room for improvement and plenty of time to do it.....h


//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

extern double StopLoss = 140.0; // _________normal stoploss
extern double ProfitTarget = 200.0; //_______ normal profittarget
extern double TrailingStop = 0.0; // _________common trailing stop

extern double TrailingStopStart = 0.0; // _____point at which trailing stop should start

extern bool usefourhourpsar = false; // ______switch to use 4 hour chart psar to adjust stoploss
extern double fourhourpsarstoploss = 80.0; // setting amount for above, if used




extern int maperiods = 12; //______________ moving average periods, such as 39
extern int dailymaxorders = 5; // ___________limits number of orders per day, of use on lower time frame charts

extern int maximumlots = 4; // _____________sets maximum lots allowed on any one trade
extern int maxlongorders = 2; // ____________sets maximum long orders open allowed at any time
extern int maxshortorders = 2; //___________ sets maximum short orders open allowed at any time

extern double psarfirstvalue = 0.1; // ________setting for the first psar value
extern double psarsecondvalue = 0.1; // _____setting for the second psar value
Attached File(s)
File Type: mqh OrderReliable.mqh   26 KB | 643 downloads
File Type: mq4 jr2008.mq4   25 KB | 802 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #193
  • Edited 9:11pm Mar 23, 2008 6:39pm | Edited 9:11pm
Thanks Hayseed. I am soaking it all in, and will review the new EA. Thank you for everything, you have been more than just help, without you, this System would not be where it is today. THANKS
  • #194
  • Mar 23, 2008 9:15pm Mar 23, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting bigred4xf
Hi, Is there a template you run with this.????
There is no template set in stone at this moment. But, here is what I plan to demo this week

use the 4hour chart with many different attempts at different Indicators that will give me the signal to place the EA on a 5min chart. This system is a work in progress.
  • #195
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:28pm Mar 26, 2008 11:28pm
Hayseed,

I took your advice, and looked into other indicators. Although, I did use the ADX to help me find something else. I used this indicator before, but it did not fit my system at that time. I tried it in the format that I am using now. So far, so good. The Indicator is simply….the MACD. I found a MACD with Alert. It alerts me by Email. Once again, nothing is set in stone. But for now, I am using the MACD (12/26/9), and MACD with Alert on a 4 hour chart to Indicate the placement of the EA on the 5min chart, and whether to go Long, or Short.

Since starting this format, I have changed from Longs only, to Shorts only once, and I have been in positive pips most of the time. So far the MACD seems to be working. More Demoing needed.
  • #196
  • Apr 10, 2008 8:12am Apr 10, 2008 8:12am
Hi..followed from 13/13 thread. Suggest RSI 14 OR 21 crossing 50 and MACD 12/26/9 crossing too...without both, zip. Look at v.short MACD like 6/4/2 as signal based on divergence break of trend based on rising lows or reverse or lower highs. MY problem as a newby with an un-nameable demo account is how do I install all these fascinating EA and MQ4 and Template files into my demo ? Cheers. Assume all Aussies are Sydney Swans supporters!
  • #197
  • Apr 22, 2008 10:18am Apr 22, 2008 10:18am
Has anyone seen this error b4? I only get it when using GBP/JPY data.

Attached Image
  • #198
  • Apr 23, 2008 9:06am Apr 23, 2008 9:06am
Havent read the whole thread yet but definetly would like to try forward testing to see how it goes...having a problem inputing the lots correctly on the EA I would like to forward on live micro account...when I input 0.05 for lot on EA whenever it takes a trade it takes it for 5 standard lots..Help please...
  • #199
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:14pm Apr 23, 2008 3:14pm
Sorry, nevermind....realized I had to set MM to false...am totally new to this so my apologies...dont know if accountmicro had to be set too true but did so anyways and seems to be working fine...Just want to say a quick thank you to all on here with so much experience willing to share with us without so much experience....this is the best thread I've run in to here so far and everyone is so helpful....Thank you Jr and thank you all.
  • #200
  • Apr 24, 2008 4:15pm Apr 24, 2008 4:15pm
Ok, Family crisis has hit the brakes for now. My father in-law had a few massive heart attacks. He fought through them, and along with a much needed Surgery, he came through. Everything is much better for now. Ok, enough said, back to this EA.

I have received a few Private Messages regarding this thread. I had put everything on the back burner, but I am now ready to get back to this. Hayseed, if you are out there, please post on this thread so I know that you are. I have been given an indicator that looks promising, but I am not sure if it can be put on an EA. I would appreciate it, thanks.
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