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  • #5,501
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:57am Mar 16, 2008 5:57am
Quoting emda
Who remember that many people were saying... oh.. if it reaches 1.50.. it is going to be a battle...I don't see the battle yet... a retracement to 1.50 as support has yet to be started somewhere. or maybe it is really the end of the dollar.
I see that Euro wants to substitute the pound in the long term... I see euro at 2.0 dollars and the pound at 1.0 euro. Then UK will join the euro zone. It makes sense. :
I was actually thinking the same, although this scenario won't play out until the next global expansion let's say in 4-5 years.
  • #5,502
  • Mar 16, 2008 7:35am Mar 16, 2008 7:35am
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  • #5,503
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:14pm Mar 16, 2008 5:14pm
Unusually volatile open. Assume its because of the Bear Stearns deal.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #5,504
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:28pm Mar 16, 2008 5:28pm
I agree. Was there anything in the news over the weekend to justify it or is just Aussies that missed out on the Friday Bear Stearns news trying to catch up?????

If yes there may be a minor sell off for profit taking and subsequent panic selling of people who chased it north.

I'm going to wait for a pull back....maybe 1.5600.

K8
  • #5,505
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:30pm Mar 16, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting Khornate8
I agree. Was there anything in the news over the weekend to justify it or is just Aussies that missed out on the Friday Bear Stearns news trying to catch up?????

If yes there may be a minor sell off for profit taking and subsequent panic selling of people who chased it north.

I'm going to wait for a pull back....maybe 1.5600.

K8
There's a possible announcement tonight before asia regarding a buyout of Bear Sterns by JP Morgan. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...lEk&refer=home
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #5,506
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:39pm Mar 16, 2008 5:39pm
Also the WS journal reporting that if the deal falls apart, Bear Stearns will file for bankruptcy before the Asia open.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #5,507
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:43pm Mar 16, 2008 5:43pm
From the article listed in Luckylurker's post. Not sure how to quote it properly so just cut and pasted it and coloured it mauve?????

Right now it's a very potent short-term problem,'' said Brian Barish, who manages about $8 billion as president of Denver-based Cambiar Investors LLC. ``If Bear fails you're going to augment this liquidity problem materially because all kinds of trades are going to fail and people are going to be stuck with Bear as a counterparty. So it's better to find a way to handle Bear.''
Russell Sherman, a spokesman for Bear Stearns, declined to comment. JPMorgan spokeswoman Kristin Lemkau didn't return phone calls seeking comment.
...
``The government is prepared to do what it takes to maintain the stability of our financial system,'' Paulson told the ``Fox News Sunday'' television program in Washington today. ``Our focus, our No. 1 priority, is the stability of our financial system.''

If it looks like **** and it smells like ****, it probably is ****.

I can feel a snowball coming. Hopefully wont be an avalanche. They are talking about $20 a share as a buy out figure. From the article it says it is currently trading around $30 a share. Therefore they are structuring in a further 50% fall in the companies value. ouch. Re snowball I mean what other companies will get smacked by being a counterparty to it.

I particularly like the quotes "do what it takes" in relation to stabilising the financial system. Is this a 100+ rate cut, print more money, buy Euro.....

interesting times ahead.

K8
  • #5,508
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:46pm Mar 16, 2008 5:46pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
Also the WS journal reporting that if the deal falls apart, Bear Stearns will file for bankruptcy before the Asia open.

Thye would wont to be quick. Not far off that time now...
  • #5,509
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:50pm Mar 16, 2008 5:50pm
or maybe just stops at 5690-5700
  • #5,510
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:55pm Mar 16, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting digitil
or maybe just stops at 5690-5700
I'd want it to bounce off the 5700 area a couple of times for it to create a support level. I think there might be a couple of hundred pip volatility in the short term.

K8
  • #5,511
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:57pm Mar 16, 2008 5:57pm
Jp Morgan to buy Bear Sterns for $2.00 per share
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #5,512
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:06pm Mar 16, 2008 6:06pm
Weekly pivot 1.5547
  • #5,513
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:08pm Mar 16, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting Khornate8
I'd want it to bounce off the 5700 area a couple of times for it to create a support level. I think there might be a couple of hundred pip volatility in the short term.

K8
oh definitely. but the air is thin for sure. its gonna be a fun week (I'm gonna be looking for dips to buy).

the news item on JP is cold coffee. everyone wonders how many others are going to head into insolvency this quarter.

next up on the radar: will the EZB talk about intervention soon? the US being interested in a strong dollar is just the usual political b/s - those guys don't give a wet slap about a strong dollar. they're all banking (get it? heh) on weak dollar shoring up exports, the only bright spot in the economy.

and if for some bizarre reason the quarter ends at -9.99% they;re all going to hail the fact that the US is avoiding recession. it's like those silly democratic presidential races. one of them "wins" one state by a 1% margin. the spin-doctors are in
  • #5,514
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:10pm Mar 16, 2008 6:10pm
I read good thoghts we must consider for this trade week we are facing. This from fxinsights sunday update.

We've got an action-packed week of mega fundamentals, with the most important event happening on Tuesday at 1415 EST -- FOMC.

If you're still one of those traders that believe the EUR/USD can't go any higher, now might be the time to come to your senses... if you're one of those traders who's been trying to short the euro every 50 or 100 pips, you seriously might want to re-think your gameplan, starting today...

We did hear from somebody over the weekend, but it was just Paulson, I don't expect the market to even give it a thought... here's what he said:

I dont know how we can be any stronger than in saying a strong dollar is in our nations interest.

Paulson reiterates belief that long term strength in economy will be reflected in the currency administration policies. (Fox News Interview)

OK, so we have the liar, Henry Paulson, spouting the same dumb rhetoric on Faux News... great, not only will this not help the dollar, it will just give the market more reason to buy the euro...

There's just too much happening fundamentally this week to cover everything in today's update, so we'll break them down one by one in the daily Team updates...

But, lets look at Monday's line-up and then we'll cover some possibilities for the EUR/USD this week...

Monday:

We have a lot of data tomorrow, in addition, a meeting between the Three Stooges -- Bush, Bernanke, and Paulson has been scheduled. I don't have a time of this meeting, but I imagine it will happen sometime during the early NY session...

And the results and rhetoric from this meeting could turn out to be the biggest fundamental of all tomorrow. I cannot and will not try to speculate on what they will say or do, but obviously we need to be vigilent here... my assumption is that they would likely come out with stronger rhetoric supporting the dollar and supporting a positive longer-term view of the U.S. economy. We'll see...

Current Account -- this is a very key report that shows a much more overall and broad based look at the U.S. trade/import/export/services situation. It goes beyond what the Trade Balance data tells us. Forecasts show a USD- Current Account. I have to agree. Industrial and manufacturing output has erroded the past few months... the services sector has slowed considerably... the only thing that would give us a USD+ Current Account is if foreigner importers were using the opportunity of the worthless dollar to buy U.S. goods to import into their own countries.

NET Tic Flows -- this data shows foreign appetite for U.S. debt instruments... based on what I've seen happening in the bond markets the past few weeks, we could get a USD+ print here... the sharp drop in yields signifies increased buying of securities.

Industrial Production -- my research shows a continued slowdown in this sector... there's been job layoffs and output has been on the slide. I have to forecast a USD- print on this data... there's not much to support the case that we'll see a pick up in the industrial sector and this should also mean that we see a USD- print on the Capacity Utilizaton data...

Overall, not looking like a strong fundamental day for the dollar tomorrow... but again, the biggest fundamental event could be the meeting...

EUR/USD:

It's very simple -- I continue to be net euro long, I continue to be biased euro long, I will not go net euro short, I do not see any signs or signals within the market, within the fundamentals, and within the price action to cause me to go euro short...

I think gold and oil have higher highs to make... I think most of our U.S. fundamental data will be USD- this week, and I don't see any reason why the banks would start heavily buying the dollar this week...

At this point, I think there's only a few things that could possibly stop the rapid acceleration of the EUR/USD:

1. Strong verbal and possibly physical intervention in the market... I'm talking about a concerted, central bank tag-team type situation where the banks buy dollars and give the markets a verbal beat-down.

2. Heavy, serious, mega profit-taking.

3. The FOMC not cutting rates this week.

If one or more of those things doesn't happen this week or happen soon, there's no way the euro will stop beating up the dollar... it's pretty simple, the bulk of retail traders are net euro short and the tech traders are net euro short, so what do you think the banks are going to keep doing? They will keep pushing the euro up, keep triggering stops, etc. This is how the game works.

For me, I'll look any retracements as a buying opportunity, but I'm going in very cautiously in light of the fact we have that meeting tomorrow and the FOMC on Tuesday...

I will continue to hold all of my best euro longs and play these current levels tight and cautiously...

Please be smart, trade smart, and do not overleverage your account. If you are euro short and facing a margin call, do what you have to do to get your account in shape.

Right now I'm looking at this run possibly going 1550-1750 pips before it's all said and done. That's 1550-1750 pips from the 1.4380 bottomside level... if the market is allowed to continue this unprecedented move, I see no reason why we can't go that far...
  • #5,515
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:20pm Mar 16, 2008 6:20pm
Wow and I thought I was long winded.


All I got out of all that was this peice of good advise I can think of a few that should listen to it.
Quoting blyestyachee
If you're still one of those traders that believe the EUR/USD can't go any higher, now might be the time to come to your senses... if you're one of those traders who's been trying to short the euro every 50 or 100 pips, you seriously might want to re-think your gameplan, starting today...
I skimmed the rest.

Don't think there is a top in place untill you know a top is in place. Don't worrie when it gets there it will be obvious it has formed. Even if you miss the first real move on the turn, you see how many opportunities are in a long term trend.

Just keep buying dips, especially if it dips to and bounces off weekly pivot.
  • #5,516
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:24pm Mar 16, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting blyestyachee
I read good thoghts we must consider for this trade week we are facing. This from fxinsights sunday update.

We've got an action-packed week of mega fundamentals, with the most important event happening on Tuesday at 1415 EST -- FOMC.

If you're still one of those traders that believe the EUR/USD can't go any higher, now might be the time to come to your senses... if you're one of those traders who's been trying to short the euro every 50 or 100 pips, you seriously might want to re-think your gameplan, starting today...

We did hear from somebody over the weekend, but it was just Paulson, I don't expect the market to even give it a thought... here's what he said:

I dont know how we can be any stronger than in saying a strong dollar is in our nations interest.

Paulson reiterates belief that long term strength in economy will be reflected in the currency administration policies. (Fox News Interview)

OK, so we have the liar, Henry Paulson, spouting the same dumb rhetoric on Faux News... great, not only will this not help the dollar, it will just give the market more reason to buy the euro...

There's just too much happening fundamentally this week to cover everything in today's update, so we'll break them down one by one in the daily Team updates...

But, lets look at Monday's line-up and then we'll cover some possibilities for the EUR/USD this week...

Monday:

We have a lot of data tomorrow, in addition, a meeting between the Three Stooges -- Bush, Bernanke, and Paulson has been scheduled. I don't have a time of this meeting, but I imagine it will happen sometime during the early NY session...

And the results and rhetoric from this meeting could turn out to be the biggest fundamental of all tomorrow. I cannot and will not try to speculate on what they will say or do, but obviously we need to be vigilent here... my assumption is that they would likely come out with stronger rhetoric supporting the dollar and supporting a positive longer-term view of the U.S. economy. We'll see...

Current Account -- this is a very key report that shows a much more overall and broad based look at the U.S. trade/import/export/services situation. It goes beyond what the Trade Balance data tells us. Forecasts show a USD- Current Account. I have to agree. Industrial and manufacturing output has erroded the past few months... the services sector has slowed considerably... the only thing that would give us a USD+ Current Account is if foreigner importers were using the opportunity of the worthless dollar to buy U.S. goods to import into their own countries.

NET Tic Flows -- this data shows foreign appetite for U.S. debt instruments... based on what I've seen happening in the bond markets the past few weeks, we could get a USD+ print here... the sharp drop in yields signifies increased buying of securities.

Industrial Production -- my research shows a continued slowdown in this sector... there's been job layoffs and output has been on the slide. I have to forecast a USD- print on this data... there's not much to support the case that we'll see a pick up in the industrial sector and this should also mean that we see a USD- print on the Capacity Utilizaton data...

Overall, not looking like a strong fundamental day for the dollar tomorrow... but again, the biggest fundamental event could be the meeting...

EUR/USD:

It's very simple -- I continue to be net euro long, I continue to be biased euro long, I will not go net euro short, I do not see any signs or signals within the market, within the fundamentals, and within the price action to cause me to go euro short...

I think gold and oil have higher highs to make... I think most of our U.S. fundamental data will be USD- this week, and I don't see any reason why the banks would start heavily buying the dollar this week...

At this point, I think there's only a few things that could possibly stop the rapid acceleration of the EUR/USD:

1. Strong verbal and possibly physical intervention in the market... I'm talking about a concerted, central bank tag-team type situation where the banks buy dollars and give the markets a verbal beat-down.

2. Heavy, serious, mega profit-taking.

3. The FOMC not cutting rates this week.

If one or more of those things doesn't happen this week or happen soon, there's no way the euro will stop beating up the dollar... it's pretty simple, the bulk of retail traders are net euro short and the tech traders are net euro short, so what do you think the banks are going to keep doing? They will keep pushing the euro up, keep triggering stops, etc. This is how the game works.

For me, I'll look any retracements as a buying opportunity, but I'm going in very cautiously in light of the fact we have that meeting tomorrow and the FOMC on Tuesday...

I will continue to hold all of my best euro longs and play these current levels tight and cautiously...

Please be smart, trade smart, and do not overleverage your account. If you are euro short and facing a margin call, do what you have to do to get your account in shape.

Right now I'm looking at this run possibly going 1550-1750 pips before it's all said and done. That's 1550-1750 pips from the 1.4380 bottomside level... if the market is allowed to continue this unprecedented move, I see no reason why we can't go that far...

looks like u r scared to hell from any violent usd reversal
  • #5,517
  • Mar 16, 2008 7:25pm Mar 16, 2008 7:25pm
Well the EUR/USD is out the gate like it's ass was on fire......
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #5,518
  • Mar 16, 2008 7:44pm Mar 16, 2008 7:44pm
um.....ok

I was going to go long on a bounce but the train left while I dined. Stupid food.
  • #5,519
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:08pm Mar 16, 2008 8:08pm
Don't feel bad.... your not the only one left at the depot.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #5,520
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:10pm Mar 16, 2008 8:10pm
uh ya - ditto on that one -

sheesh -
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
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