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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #57,961
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:26am Mar 12, 2008 7:26am
Quoting Bones
Yes Allserene I think its going up but a bit streched ,not right now thats all ,mind you I have been wrong before ,lol

Got my weekly attached to give you an idea of my veiw on momentum.

one thign i will say tone...on the weekly chart theres 4 bullish candles and a doji kinda formation....indecision at 50 fib...and normally a retracement level..its a doggy one..risky ....oh yeah i forgot it hasnt closed yet..lol
  • #57,962
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:37am Mar 12, 2008 7:37am
Quoting nAVIN2007
one thign i will say tone...on the weekly chart theres 4 bullish candles and a doji kinda formation....indecision at 50 fib...and normally a retracement level..its a doggy one..risky ....oh yeah i forgot it hasnt closed yet..lol
Yea Nav im thinking it will be Blue like the others them moving averages dont change direction easy on the weekly
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,963
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:37am Mar 12, 2008 7:37am
Quoting nAVIN2007
the candles look bearish to me ...if we cross 2..0150 (close below) then i think we going down.
Can i ask a question i know fundamentally the dollar is weak hence pound should go up....but isnt the pound already strong i mean if it increased much more then american dollar...americain economy would completely fall apart..maybe this is a sort of cover to stop this from happening...im in way over my head here so if this is rubbish please just say so..as i have no idea really about this sort of thing
A very interesting point as everything is relative and the question is where is the natural value for gbp if both economies and other conditions were in equilibrum ?

If 1.82 is the right place then yes, where we are now could already reflect the current bad conditions in the US - so its a question of relative momentum and whether the US is going bad at a faster rate than the UK rather than where we are now.

If we are diving in parallel with the rate of recovery expected to be the same then there is no reason for the ex rate to change other than 'USD is the reserve currency' blah blah blah

The fed is pulling back on the joystick really hard to raise the nose of the economy and will continue to do so, but the lag is so long before we see whether its working or not that there are a few months now where confidence in the USD must be fragile until we see proof that it is working.

These few months could get really nasty for the USD but if the FED action works, and if the GB economy is still in decline, the USD could REALLY bounce back...1.74 and all that

If the Euro economy holds and saves the GB economy to some degree and the US economy is not responding by July, then I reckon it will be a real boost for cable


But cable longs should be safe for a few months yet I reckon.

There will be huge truckloads of pips to be made or lost later this year
  • #57,964
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:54am Mar 12, 2008 7:54am
thanks ...your our fundamentalist forecaster.. and as always damn good explaination ...U thee man
  • #57,965
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:58am Mar 12, 2008 7:58am
im a bit worried about this pin...cause it saying down...
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  • #57,966
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:59am Mar 12, 2008 7:59am
I'll go for short-term that's why M shorting the cable now @ 2.0199 tp 2.0050 sl 2.0225 risk a little rewards a lot! Let's see how it goes.....
  • #57,967
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:03am Mar 12, 2008 8:03am
Quoting nAVIN2007
im a bit worried about this pin...cause it saying down...
Good look for Pins but that one is in traffic and its better off some kind of resistance,If a pin pokes out above everthing else its a good probability trade,safest entry is break of bottom and smallest stop loss is off the retrace of the pin.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,968
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:04am Mar 12, 2008 8:04am
I'm not shorting till we hit 2.0400, my target. We have 2 pieces of important data for the $ in the next two days of trading, look out for pound bullishness.
  • #57,969
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:09am Mar 12, 2008 8:09am
Quoting 4x_Trader
I'll go for short-term that's why M shorting the cable now @ 2.0199 tp 2.0050 sl 2.0225 risk a little rewards a lot! Let's see how it goes.....
No man 2.0050 I dont see that bit to low imho
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,970
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:11am Mar 12, 2008 8:11am
Id rather be a buyer since that is the trend
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,971
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:11am Mar 12, 2008 8:11am
Quoting nAVIN2007
im a bit worried about this pin...cause it saying down...
nAVIN2007 the pin bar you posted is favorable to the buyers not to the sellers, pin bar means pinochio's nose it becomes long when he's telling a lie interpolating in chart pattern it means false break out... but whatever M still go with your analysis "look south before north" strategy!
  • #57,972
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:14am Mar 12, 2008 8:14am
Quoting 4x_Trader
nAVIN2007 the pin bar you posted is favorable to the buyers not to the sellers, pin bar means pinochio's nose it becomes long when he's telling a lie interpolating in chart pattern it means false break out... but whatever M still go with your analysis "look south before north" strategy!
That is a very good point.But the recent price action today has broken the top so that bar is no longer valid.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,973
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:16am Mar 12, 2008 8:16am
Quoting Bones
Id rather be a buyer since that is the trend
At what rate you buy? your target and stop loss? Always remember there is no impossible in Forex Market everything is possible because the Markets never Sleep!
  • #57,974
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:28am Mar 12, 2008 8:28am
only time will tell ...its neither here or there...as for the pin..the tip of the pin is the resistance area...showing it heavy resistance spot...i think down today up later...its needs news to break.

the pin thing i posted has a close lower than the previous candle so its valid as a bearish signal..
  • #57,975
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:37am Mar 12, 2008 8:37am
Quoting nAVIN2007
only time will tell ...its neither here or there...as for the pin..the tip of the pin is the resistance area...showing it heavy resistance spot...i think down today up later...its needs news to break.

the pin thing i posted has a close lower than the previous candle so its valid as a bearish signal..
Right you are nAVIN2007 we're making money once again! Trade call right from the spot!
  • #57,976
  • Edited 8:55am Mar 12, 2008 8:41am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Right you are nAVIN2007 we're making money once again! Trade call right from the spot!
but still like u said already in forex anything is possible..
tony knows his stuff, and he may be right...the candles are just dont giving any direction....mm rules all the way..
  • #57,977
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:58am Mar 12, 2008 8:58am
Quoting nAVIN2007
but still like u said already in forex anything is possible..
Yup because the markets never sleep! Always remember successful traders are prepared for all eventualities on any given trading day. They come to work with a plan that includes many contingencies and not just what they hope will happen. Meaning, in your own trading program you should have predetermined answer to the following questions:

What happens IF?........

* prices open sharply higher or lower?
* the market is very quiet?
* the market is very volatile?
* the market makes new high or new lo?
* the market goes up early and reverses later?
* the market goes down early and reverses later?

Successful Traders keep a low profile.
Successful Traders "listen" to the market. Unsuccessful Traders attempt to impose their will on the market!.......just my 2 cents!
  • #57,978
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:01am Mar 12, 2008 9:01am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Yup because the markets never sleep! Always remember successful traders are prepared for all eventualities on any given trading day. They come to work with a plan that includes many contingencies and not just what they hope will happen. Meaning, in your own trading program you should have predetermined answer to the following questions:

What happens IF?........

* prices open sharply higher or lower?
* the market is very quiet?
* the market is very volatile?
* the market makes new high or new lo?
* the market goes up early and reverses later?
* the market goes down early and reverses later?

Successful Traders keep a low profile.
Successful Traders "listen" to the market. Unsuccessful Traders attempt to impose their will on the market!.......just my 2 cents!
100% agree ....vey good informative post
  • #57,979
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:33am Mar 12, 2008 9:33am
Keep your eye on EU 1.5500 resistance this breaks and we'll get a new high on the GU no doubt.


Strategy short EU near 1.5500, buy GU on dips until 2.0145 is taken out then consider it bearish intraday!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #57,980
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:42am Mar 12, 2008 9:42am
With EU Daily R1 at 1.5462 now acting as support today, this would be a different from the GU "sharp drop" price action yesterday.

Depending on Trichet's speech later, I reckon this two pairs might finally break free from 2.0200 resistance... not too far off now. If that happens, next target at 2.0400.
Trade the reaction, not the news!
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