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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #57,321
  • Mar 6, 2008 3:47am Mar 6, 2008 3:47am
Quoting trickytrader
i think no interest cut = positive for gbp.
I would expect gbp to creep up about 20-30 pips over an hour or 2 if rates are put on hold.

I dont understand if the house prices figures are bad, It can means that people cant afford the mortgage possibly and the BOE should reduce interest rates to countertract yes? ....if they dont (ie hold) then how is this good for the £ and therfore id say a fall in £ is likely to be seen.

I know nothing about fundamentals..so please correct me if im wrong..
  • #57,322
  • Mar 6, 2008 3:49am Mar 6, 2008 3:49am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I dont understand if the house prices figures are bad, It can means that people cant afford the mortgage possibly and the BOE should reduce interest rates to countertract yes? ....if they dont (ie hold) then how is this good for the £ and therfore id say a fall in £ is likely to be seen.

I know nothing about fundamentals..so please correct me if im wrong..
All you need to know is how will investors react to their decision

Don't clutter your mind with why this n why that and who what, let them handle that stuff lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #57,323
  • Mar 6, 2008 4:01am Mar 6, 2008 4:01am
Quoting nAVIN2007
placeing trades b4 i got work just doesnt seem to hold right now ...and again im taking a chance...if the bank of england reduce interest rates..this will make mortagage affordable...will this make £ go up!?

I actually short here....seeing imaginary bounces....lol and going against trend ....what do u guys think gonna happen today with the news and stuff, interst rate is expected no change...so £ should fall i think?
no my friend thats not the way it works
if they cut cable will fall( i know u might think it makes no sense but thats how the market reacts)
if they hold we will see a rise in cable to the 2.01 possibly
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,324
  • Mar 6, 2008 4:03am Mar 6, 2008 4:03am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I dont understand if the house prices figures are bad, It can means that people cant afford the mortgage possibly and the BOE should reduce interest rates to countertract yes? ....if they dont (ie hold) then how is this good for the £ and therfore id say a fall in £ is likely to be seen.

I know nothing about fundamentals..so please correct me if im wrong..
u are perfectly right they should cut rates but u are forgetting inflationary pressures my friend especially with oil flying at all time highs. which will have an effect on this months CPI.

they are in a tricky situation which is :
slowdown in economy and inflation pressures
which will outweigh which (that is the question)
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,325
  • Mar 6, 2008 4:07am Mar 6, 2008 4:07am
keep in mind NAVIN that the statement released after the decision is much more important than the cut itself because it gives us insight on future decisions.

Listen to it carefully because if they hold rates this meeting but say that they will cut rates in next meetings then that would flip the markets and cause irrational behavior.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,326
  • Mar 6, 2008 5:48am Mar 6, 2008 5:48am
Looking increasingly likely to me that we will see the $2 pound again very very soon (well, hopefully anyway!)
PIPPED TO THE LINE
  • #57,327
  • Edited 7:04am Mar 6, 2008 5:54am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting karmostaji
If IR is put on hold, we should see 2.0055 easily
IR on hold is almost a certainty - why would that increase price by ~100 pips? No increase in volume as you would expect if such a sure thing is about to occur. My own guess is that nothing much will happen and that price will remain range bound.

My 2¢

After the event: Yeah OK so I was wrong. What I don't get is why it produced such a large rise is price as IR on hold was almost a certainty (I would have understood a big fall if IR were reduced). Please explain it to all of us.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #57,328
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:02am Mar 6, 2008 6:02am
Quoting TraderJR
IR on hold is almost a certainty - why would that increase price by ~100 pips? No increase in volume as you would expect if such a sure thing is about to occur. My own guess is that nothing much will happen and that price will remain range bound.

My 2¢
lets just wait and listen to the statement
its much more important than the decision becasue the decision is old news.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,329
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:07am Mar 6, 2008 6:07am
"fears of recession are rising in the UK now that BOE is not moving to stop economic slowdown"
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,330
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:16am Mar 6, 2008 6:16am
Quoting TraderJR
IR on hold is almost a certainty - why would that increase price by ~100 pips? No increase in volume as you would expect if such a sure thing is about to occur. My own guess is that nothing much will happen and that price will remain range bound.

My 2¢
This is how forex works and I'm talking from experience.

2.0055 will come shortly
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #57,331
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:25am Mar 6, 2008 6:25am
Quoting karmostaji
This is how forex works and I'm talking from experience.

2.0055 will come shortly
i think we might even c 2.0100 today
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,332
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:29am Mar 6, 2008 6:29am
Quoting salah k.
"fears of recession are rising in the UK now that BOE is not moving to stop economic slowdown"
Honestly Salah that is not correct
The BOE have made a wise decision
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,333
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:34am Mar 6, 2008 6:34am
I think the market is waiting for the Euro interest rate decision.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,334
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:44am Mar 6, 2008 6:44am
$2.00
{Promotion Removed}
  • #57,335
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:53am Mar 6, 2008 6:53am
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #57,336
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:56am Mar 6, 2008 6:56am
Quoting Bones
Honestly Salah that is not correct
The BOE have made a wise decision
u might be right my friend but i do believe that they are making the same mistake the fed made by waiting till the last minute.
anyway maybe thats just me.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,337
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:04am Mar 6, 2008 7:04am
Quoting salah k.
u might be right my friend but i do believe that they are making the same mistake the fed made by waiting till the last minute.
anyway maybe thats just me.
Of course I respect your opinion ,just interest rate house prices etc in the Uk is my speciality, something I am good at, unlike say seeing patterns like butterfly’s in my charts, lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #57,338
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:07am Mar 6, 2008 7:07am
dollar strengthened a bit.
i think thats y cable didnt hit 2.01 yet.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,339
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:08am Mar 6, 2008 7:08am
Quoting Bones
Of course I respect your opinion ,just interest rate house prices etc in the Uk is my speciality, something I am good at, unlike say seeing patterns like butterfly’s in my charts, lol
so the cut will come in april or may or never?
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #57,340
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:08am Mar 6, 2008 7:08am
Quoting karmostaji
This is how forex works and I'm talking from experience.

2.0055 will come shortly
hit

2.0100 is next if .0055 gives way
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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