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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #56,741
  • Edited 1:55pm Feb 29, 2008 1:42pm | Edited 1:55pm
I think we are stuck betwen a rock and hard stone, your makes complete sense but if it dont happen then we going 1.93 but the bottom trendline on 4hr definately my exit because i sold instead of buy.

that garley thing in my head

Im trying experiment ...making a plan for weeks ..i really dont know why im on a demo so why not..
1.9927...then down to 1.9821
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  • #56,742
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:49pm Feb 29, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
well Im trying something different ..gonna try take my trading to the next level see diagram.
directly above us is yearly pivot..inbetween the blue lines is the channel we appear to be in the bottom is like 1.93 ish area
price is rejected from the top line....
Well its good to know that its testing the year pivot, I assume it’s the past 12 month’s data. Its gonna take it out though. Then you could go long to the next. Only trouble is its miles away, I mean it’s difficult to see but is it 2.7066.
If you look at the most recent bars what would you say the trend is?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,743
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:52pm Feb 29, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting salah k.
hey buddy
just wanted to ask u
do u think that line will hold for long? because it seems that a brake could happen any moment.
Its still serves as support as far as I an see.
  • #56,744
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:58pm Feb 29, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting salah k.
hey buddy
just wanted to ask u
do u think that line will hold for long? because it seems that a brake could happen any moment.
Hey Salah ,
Well you got to start somewhere, there are clues all over our charts and of course there are the fundies to think about.
At the moment things look incredibly bullish to me but if someone can point to stronger bearish things on there charts ,I am always open minded.

In fact I would appreciate it
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,745
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:02pm Feb 29, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting Bones
Well its good to know that its testing the year pivot, I assume it’s the past 12 month’s data. Its gonna take it out though. Then you could go long to the next. Only trouble is its miles away, I mean it’s difficult to see but is it 2.7066.
If you look at the most recent bars what would you say the trend is?
yes yur right .....we will go up test 1.9927 if this break ..we may well see 2.0 whatever but if theres a bounce we will come down then i reckon 1.93 is possible. I am putting all the knowledge together and as usaul getting all back to front.....lol
I know trend is yur friend.its the gartley thing (i couldnt get it out of my head)

With what i have done im likely to blow my first account...still i rather it this than the real one....
  • #56,746
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:22pm Feb 29, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
the plan looks excellent .....only thing is i think we are going down
why do u reckon we will see 2.5 or around this figure?
I have already posted this before the breakout
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,747
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:53pm Feb 29, 2008 2:53pm
Ok I have thought about a break below this price (1.9875) as it is now and if the Sunday close is around this.
The next weekly support is 1.9727 (yellow box)and If price closes below that for the week I might be more bearish. Also 9727 is 61.8 retace as other yellow box.
9425 would be a good buy if we reached it as its top of old channel

If the week’s price breaks this months low 1.9360 and closes its going to tank
LOL
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,748
  • Edited 3:06pm Feb 29, 2008 2:56pm | Edited 3:06pm
tony thanks again man ....i actually this week skiped work, pulled a sicky and i have learnt more this week than ever b4...and a big part of it comes from your contribution...thanks buddy "u the man"
Isnt this place great...i never thought i could learn so much ..fantastic site!!!

Ok....IT LOOKS LIKE 1HR CHART
we were in a retracement...bounced at 61.8% fib bounced down and 4hr chart shows bearish candle..looking good for down
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  • #56,749
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:03pm Feb 29, 2008 3:03pm
Thanks Nav I hope I have inspired you as much as Everyone has me on my buddy list
What a great site this is
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,750
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:16pm Feb 29, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting Bones
Hey Salah ,
Well you got to start somewhere, there are clues all over our charts and of course there are the fundies to think about.
At the moment things look incredibly bullish to me but if someone can point to stronger bearish things on there charts ,I am always open minded.

In fact I would appreciate it

my friend i cant correct u technically as ur analysis so far is impeccable. but some of the guys on the site present good arguments about the butterfly chart.

but i am mostly concerned about fundies as i believe this hike in the market was purely triggered by fundamentals(which is bernanke trashing dollar)
since as u notice it wasnt a coincidence that all the currencies and commodities spiked.

now i believe dollar is in for a correction so euro might head south.
plus if u noticed cable's fundamentals reflect a bad state of economy which caused severe selloff in cable mostly infront of chf ,cad, and jpy,euro.
and next week we have interest rate statement for cable so we might be in for a ride and it looks bearish so far.

i usually stick to technical trading but the world is in a panic state and traders will stick to the news as some countries are on the verge of economical disaster.

P.S: you have to remember its politics that drove dollar down thru interest rate cutting and not that crap about reviving the economy.

feel free to comment u and any others
it would be much appreciated
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #56,751
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:17pm Feb 29, 2008 3:17pm
Have a great weekend all, great forum.
  • #56,752
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:35pm Feb 29, 2008 3:35pm
[quote=salah k.;1878217]my friend i cant correct u technically as ur analysis so far is impeccable. but some of the guys on the site present good arguments about the butterfly chart.
now i believe dollar is in for a correction so euro might head south.
plus if u noticed cable's fundamentals reflect a bad state of economy which caused severe selloff in cable mostly infront of chf ,cad, and jpy,euro.
and next week we have interest rate statement for cable so we might be in for a ride and it looks bearish so far.

Alright buddy, you are speaking mainly fundie there and a lot of it is a foreign language to me, but I do love it.
I mean I pick up a lot of my fundamental views right here as there are a few of you LOL, especially Acid,I love his posts. I see the patterns but they could change Carrea said, and my chart says change, LOL
I have no idea what the forecast is for the Uk rates next week but feel they are going to tread much more carefully than the US.
You know the technical and fundamentals are so interlinked the mind really boggles and I often wonder how you can predict prices so far in the future with tech ,with so much interchangeable news events looming
Anyhow ultimately I will trade what I see, just after last week I do feel it necessary to chat about possible outcomes
All the best my friend whatever happens
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #56,753
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:38pm Feb 29, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting Bones
All the best my friend whatever happens
u 2 my friend have a nice weekend.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #56,754
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:52pm Feb 29, 2008 3:52pm
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  • #56,755
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:54pm Feb 29, 2008 3:54pm
Eithor im Getting Really damn good or im just Sucking hardcore. She's always 10pip off my TP or target. and now i gota Wait AGAIN. my entries are bomb on though... but my exit's are really annoying me lol anyone got any ideas?? haha damn.
And your mouth dropped
  • #56,756
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:04pm Feb 29, 2008 4:04pm
Makey, easy 1, work out your TP, and subtract 10, sorted!!


There is a $1000 charge for that help though, where do I invoice ??



Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #56,757
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:08pm Feb 29, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting makey2u
Eithor im Getting Really damn good or im just Sucking hardcore. She's always 10pip off my TP or target. and now i gota Wait AGAIN. my entries are bomb on though... but my exit's are really annoying me lol anyone got any ideas?? haha damn.
The short was spot on bro...I noticed that u see things really early and generally spot on entry, coming like yur psychic bro ....lol
Your getting better for sure ....its all about the pips right, dont worry about the exits thou....its not like u were here
  • #56,758
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:09pm Feb 29, 2008 4:09pm
Have a good weekend guys peace till sunday/monday
  • #56,759
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:43pm Feb 29, 2008 4:43pm
Quoting salah k.
my friend i cant correct u technically as ur analysis so far is impeccable. but some of the guys on the site present good arguments about the butterfly chart.

but i am mostly concerned about fundies as i believe this hike in the market was purely triggered by fundamentals(which is bernanke trashing dollar)
since as u notice it wasnt a coincidence that all the currencies and commodities spiked.

now i believe dollar is in for a correction so euro might head south.
plus if u noticed cable's fundamentals reflect a bad state of economy which caused severe selloff in cable mostly infront of chf ,cad, and jpy,euro.
and next week we have interest rate statement for cable so we might be in for a ride and it looks bearish so far.

i usually stick to technical trading but the world is in a panic state and traders will stick to the news as some countries are on the verge of economical disaster.

P.S: you have to remember its politics that drove dollar down thru interest rate cutting and not that crap about reviving the economy.

feel free to comment u and any others
it would be much appreciated
I would take issue with you about the UK economy - where does all the doom and gloom come from ? The UK is in superb condition compared to the US economy. Any statistic you care to mention. Any forward interest rate you care to mention. Forward jobs outlook - etc etc etc - even housing.

I don't know where people on here are getting their UK economic news from but I can't recognize it. Talking down GBP is working though and it is weak.

the US is in a panic state and bernanke says some banks will go bust in the US and jobs are slipping fast. That doesn't sound like political manipulation to me. The US has little room to cut rates now and it has accelerating inflation.

Who are these people who are going to prefer their money in USD ?

I don't believe US rate cuts are political - I think they are genuinely panicked but rate cutting does not help if the banks will not (cannot) lend at any price which is where we are now... even mergers are 50% leveraged max rather than 80 to 100% as before

and yes he does have to trash the dollar as china etc will not ask for their money back at this low exchange rate. The chinese will ask for repayment when he allows to dollar to rise so he cant risk that as he is skint. He can't fund the US fiscal deficit if the dollar rises and the chinese repatriate their money and diversify into euros etc

It's a mess and the USD is vastly overvalued right now against GBP - Not a lot has changed in the UK since we were at 2.11 apart from UK housing slowing which was a lagged indicator anyway, but things are much worse in the US since we were at 2.11 on cable
  • #56,760
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:45pm Feb 29, 2008 4:45pm
plenty of pips on cable these days
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