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Drawing correct resistance and support-lines

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  • #241
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:19am Feb 25, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Rocroy
Yep, I agree, looks like she is heading south ...

Sometimes EW counting makes it easier to determine moves and targets... I'm still practicing with EW, so please comment if there is something not quite right...



Attachment
Have done some EW counting myself, but only with AB=CD pattern and on 1h-4h chart supported by Fibonacci drawing. So my comments on a 5min chart would be worthless.

As we speak, price is pushing stronger for north. I'm not taking any positions unless this explode up to 213 (short position) or going down to 210.70 area. And of course if price break 4h resistance, re-testing it, and continue its trend.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #242
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:30am Feb 25, 2008 9:30am
On cable, I don't see much support until 9615 area. Really heavy analyze

Ah well, sometimes the easiest way is the best way ! Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd1h.gif Size: 13 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #243
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:37am Feb 25, 2008 9:37am
Ok, thanks anyway. I think she turns down once UJ bounces from 108.15, well, if it bounces. Cable is already turning. So 212.40 could be a good level to go short, if she ever gets that high.

Quoting aediaz1
Have done some EW counting myself, but only with AB=CD pattern and on 1h-4h chart supported by Fibonacci drawing. So my comments on a 5min chart would be worthless.

As we speak, price is pushing stronger for north. I'm not taking any positions unless this explode up to 213 (short position) or going down to 210.70 area. And of course if price break 4h resistance, re-testing it, and continue its trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj now.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #244
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:39am Feb 25, 2008 9:39am
Quoting Rocroy
Ok, thanks anyway. I think she turns down once UJ bounces from 108.15, well, if it bounces. Cable is already turning. So 212.40 could be a good level to go short.

Yeah looks like UJ gonna turn. Its struggling with 1h resistance right now, and the down-side start to look tempting IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1h.gif Size: 12 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #245
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:40am Feb 25, 2008 9:40am
Here's my cable chart, bouncing from resisting tl...

Quoting aediaz1
On cable, I don't see much support until 9615 area. Really heavy analyze

Ah well, sometimes the easiest way is the best way ! Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu now.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #246
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:51am Feb 25, 2008 9:51am
Quoting Rocroy
Here's my cable chart, bouncing from resisting tl...



Attachment
Excellent resistance, I'm adding that to mine 1h (have reinstalled mt4 so I lost all my lines, unfortunately).

By the way, if price establish above london pivot on cable (.9666), I'll cancel my shorts and start looking for upside opportunities.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #247
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:57am Feb 25, 2008 9:57am
GJ: I'm looking for a short around 213 area, based on 1h resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbphpy1h.gif Size: 15 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #248
  • Feb 25, 2008 10:21am Feb 25, 2008 10:21am
Quoting aediaz1
Yeah looks like UJ gonna turn. Its struggling with 1h resistance right now, and the down-side start to look tempting IMO.

Broken. Seems to be more bulls. Let's see if UJ is turning this line into support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1h.gif Size: 15 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #249
  • Feb 25, 2008 7:26pm Feb 25, 2008 7:26pm
Hi all, jus wanna share a view on GJ. Attached is a daily chart of GJ since nov. First we have a triangle, then a down break of the triangle, followed by a retest of the lower trendline in the triangle which support turned into resistance. then trend continuation. What happened next is that another triangle is formed and it is near to a breakout soon. will history repeat itself breaking downwards of the triangle?or perhaps a beakout upwards? Btw i draw my triangle from line chart.

Hope to hear thoughts and comments from traders out there!

Yuna
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #250
  • Feb 25, 2008 11:55pm Feb 25, 2008 11:55pm
There is a good change to short cable, it just crossed the supporting tl... euro is moving to the south also...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu now.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #251
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:07am Feb 26, 2008 12:07am
Had to change GJ's yesterday EW counting (that is the problem of EW, you'll never know if your counting is correct, only afterwards - or maybe it is just my lack of experience, duh?) and it now looks ok to me. There is one A-B-C missing between 5 and A, wanted to save some letters...

If GJ would be in an uptrend, we should count down only using 1-2-3 pattern, but as I feel that she is ranging, I'm going to try again do the 1-2-3-4-5 count. Let's see how it works out.

1 and 2 are already in place, and 3 is probably somewhere round 211...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #252
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:20am Feb 26, 2008 12:20am
There is an excellent example of using trendlines in here, check it out!
  • #253
  • Feb 26, 2008 2:34am Feb 26, 2008 2:34am
Quoting yuna
Hi all, jus wanna share a view on GJ. Attached is a daily chart of GJ since nov. First we have a triangle, then a down break of the triangle, followed by a retest of the lower trendline in the triangle which support turned into resistance. then trend continuation. What happened next is that another triangle is formed and it is near to a breakout soon. will history repeat itself breaking downwards of the triangle?or perhaps a beakout upwards? Btw i draw my triangle from line chart.

Hope to hear thoughts and comments from traders out there!

Yuna
Attachment
Hi Yuna

Let's see how drawing from line chart works out. You get different lines than drawing from candlestick.

As the charts looks right now, and if this day is bullish too, I'm expecting a breakout from 1h and 4h chart. Let's hope those news don't mess too much up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbphpy4h.gif Size: 16 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #254
  • Feb 26, 2008 2:41am Feb 26, 2008 2:41am
Quoting Rocroy
There is a good change to short cable, it just crossed the supporting tl... euro is moving to the south also...

Attachment
A break from 1h TL's would tell us what way cable decides to move. Price trapped between .9700 and .9615. Trend is still up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd1h.gif Size: 13 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #255
  • Feb 26, 2008 2:48am Feb 26, 2008 2:48am
Also look at this interesting setup forming on eurusd. If this support-line on 1h is broken, we could have a nice drop in this pair, IMO.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #256
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:23pm Feb 26, 2008 12:23pm
GJ:

Price have entered outside resistance on 4h, but I'm not calling this a break until line is tested again and turned into support. Also note that this new 4h bar just got printed. 1 possible scenario (I would like to see) is price falling down to test support-line on 1h chart, which could occur if currently resistance (213) holds.

Alot of traders talk about heavy resistance around 213, makes me think if 213 fails to hold, this pair gonna explode to the upside.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #257
  • Feb 26, 2008 1:04pm Feb 26, 2008 1:04pm
very strong up trend on G/U.

Divergence on hourly CCI. Maybe some downward move comming soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD_1_hour.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #258
  • Feb 26, 2008 3:50pm Feb 26, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting aediaz1
GJ:

Price have entered outside resistance on 4h, but I'm not calling this a break until line is tested again and turned into support. Also note that this new 4h bar just got printed. 1 possible scenario (I would like to see) is price falling down to test support-line on 1h chart, which could occur if currently resistance (213) holds.

Alot of traders talk about heavy resistance around 213, makes me think if 213 fails to hold, this pair gonna explode to the upside.

I really agree with the point tt 213 is really key psy lvl. it's undergoing tremendous testing now. if it fails to hold like u say, expect a rocket from this wild horse!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: massive test.gif Size: 32 KB


Anywae i've a question tt's pondering on my mind and hope u fellow traders out there can enlighten me. my question is why price almost always retest after a breakout of tl, triangle , flags pennants etc etc... what's the psychology behind it? anyone?

My inexperienced thinking or probably newbish thinking is tt: lets assume price are prisoners and they try to break out of prison. eventually one leader or hero breached the gate. the thing is how do we noe he really will breakout of the prison and not a false breakout. some sites say if the breakout is at least 30% of the price or one third of the price in the previous triangle(prison) it broke, it will be a valid breakout. to continue the story let's assume this hero brokeout of the prison gate and move 3km beyond the gate.assume the prison is 10km lol. this has convinced the other prisoners(followers) that it is indeed possible to breakout of prison, thus attracting more buyers/sellers to thrust the movement of price. but how come there's many times a retest of the triangle/previous support or res etc? perhaps prisoners get use to living in prison/experiencing discomfort outside the prison and wants to go back the prison? LOL. den if the previous support/res holds, who are the prison guard, they'll say no to the prisoners, i wont let u in the prison once u get out of it. wahaha, i'm laughing as i type
  • #259
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:00pm Feb 26, 2008 7:00pm
Quoting yuna
I really agree with the point tt 213 is really key psy lvl. it's undergoing tremendous testing now. if it fails to hold like u say, expect a rocket from this wild horse!Attachment

Anywae i've a question tt's pondering on my mind and hope u fellow traders out there can enlighten me. my question is why price almost always retest after a breakout of tl, triangle , flags pennants etc etc... what's the psychology behind it? anyone?
They're testing to see whether it's a real brake out (it has to pass the test) or a false one. If it passes the test (holds the previous line) then more and more sellers/buyers will join and initiate the new trend.

It's that simple No prison break for now, sorry
  • #260
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:07pm Feb 26, 2008 7:07pm
I had a very good trade on the NZD/USD pair for a "medium-term" period and +80pips easy money
I wrote about this trade last week and now it's closed have a look at the attached chart. Hmmm did I mention that I like the taste of the delicious kiwi? B)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4-02-27-2008--0202.jpg Size: 211 KB
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