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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #55,541
  • Feb 24, 2008 5:34am Feb 24, 2008 5:34am
I will be playing long. Because of the higher lows and higher that is all.
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  • #55,542
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:25am Feb 24, 2008 6:25am
Hey Bullrock im asking GSGill these questions because he has stated them without really explaining himself, I am just curious as to why he is saying them.
I mean I can guess the trade what you see comment ,to be he has a trend following system but that would be a guess.
You are long right so are you forecasting the market to go higher on the higher lows and higher highs? My guess is you might also add to that some projections/trend lines to aim for right?
Take my forecast, I have no idea if it remotely right but it is a base I have given myself some numbers to think about before they are reached which I think is worth doing ?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #55,543
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:55am Feb 24, 2008 6:55am
Quoting Bones
Hey Bullrock im asking GSGill these questions because he has stated them without really explaining himself, I am just curious as to why he is saying them.
I mean I can guess the trade what you see comment ,to be he has a trend following system but that would be a guess.
You are long right so are you forecasting the market to go higher on the higher lows and higher highs? My guess is you might also add to that some projections/trend lines to aim for right?
Take my forecast, I have no idea if it remotely right but it is a base I have given myself some numbers to think about before they are reached which I think is worth doing ?

The basic stuff MOSTLY I am looking at: Trendlines -> for trend and S&R, Moving averages -> trend (slope?) and S&R, pivots and candlesticks. Sometimes I check a few other stuff but that is not the main.

One of the systems I am following for the long term is the good old Donchian 4 week breakout and the other is the channel.

I have a few day trading pure mechanical ones as well you can check my threades for that.... I look at probabilities ie if this happens x out of y times happens this. Then I combine the probabilities and I REACT. Try not to forecast anything....
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  • #55,544
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:12am Feb 24, 2008 7:12am
Well that’s interesting Bullrock thanks for letting me know.
The only system I refer to is the Vegas 4 hr, and I like Mike W’s too. I actually sometimes feel I do not pay enough attention to them because they are really good and could have saved me numerous times lol
Really am concentrating my efforts on Price Action as I believe that is where it is at.
Good Luck to you next week and happy trading
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #55,545
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:32am Feb 24, 2008 7:32am
Quoting Bones
Well that’s interesting Bullrock thanks for letting me know.
The only system I refer to is the Vegas 4 hr, and I like Mike W’s too. I actually sometimes feel I do not pay enough attention to them because they are really good and could have saved me numerous times lol
Really am concentrating my efforts on Price Action as I believe that is where it is at.
Good Luck to you next week and happy trading

During those years I have learnt 1 THING. No matter what method you are using (it variates in profitability only) the key is discipline/consistency and strict money management (pistion size, sl, tp, be and other more exotic stuff). The reason why I have simpified my trading because the main clue is how stubborn you are in terms of sticking yourself to your system!!!!!!!!!!
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  • #55,546
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:54am Feb 24, 2008 7:54am
Quoting punk
This is a long lasting rally on cable...

You guys missed the bottom, deal with it... Trying to sell 1,5% above it won't help ya...

It's still time to go long... Grow that set of balls.

I warned you
could u explain technically how. that would be really helpful for us newbies.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,547
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:56am Feb 24, 2008 7:56am
Quoting CounterTrend
It will eventually get there, just try not to ride against the short term trend up while not forgetting that long term cycles are bearish, not talking about sudden reverse here though before 2.0 level is tested.

So both bulls and bears should get involved soon
GBPUSD is clear and thats strange, sell 2.02/04 or buy a dip into next week.

Gl
i think the gdp might cause the sudden reverse ur talking about.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,548
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:01am Feb 24, 2008 8:01am
Quoting bullrock
During those years I have learnt 1 THING. No matter what method you are using (it variates in profitability only) the key is discipline/consistency and strict money management (pistion size, sl, tp, be and other more exotic stuff). The reason why I have simpified my trading because the main clue is how stubborn you are in terms of sticking yourself to your system!!!!!!!!!!
I’m hearing you on that position size, its something I do struggle with, actually the whole money management side of things. I do have every intention to trade my weekly plan though. I have longs from way down and will close them if price opens or breaks my rising 4hr trend line. I may even sell for a scalp to the 1.9550 and buy from there. My plan is an initial starting point and it will change as price reaches these points depending on the price reaction when it gets there. As you say everyone will develop there own method and most methods are actually profitable if the rules are adhered to.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #55,549
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:10am Feb 24, 2008 8:10am
Quoting salah k.
i think the gdp might cause the sudden reverse ur talking about.
It would be nice to hear yur analysis for once...
  • #55,550
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:15am Feb 24, 2008 8:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
It would be nice to hear yur analysis for once...
Hope your not being sarcastic my friend.
  • #55,551
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:18am Feb 24, 2008 8:18am
It will keep going down, this is just a breather before the sub 1.90. The pound is taking the brunt of the dollar weakness in other pairs - the equzlizer. It's the natural candidate. With Banking all shook up it will take a year before UK GDP gets back on track, they can't do it all with cattle exports.
  • #55,552
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:29am Feb 24, 2008 8:29am
Quoting forexmoments
Hope your not being sarcastic my friend.
nope am just a bit curious to hear his analysis and i think it will be great for him especially as he plans to go live in 2 weeks or so.
  • #55,553
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:40am Feb 24, 2008 8:40am
I would agree with that Nav
I really do not agree with you TIckershuffi my view is the interest rate gap will bring cable way up even from here before the fall. You know I have been saying for weeks the UK can not handle low interest rates and the moment there on the horizon things like house prices will take off. These are the things that are going to slow the rate at which uk rates will drop. Yet the US look poised for more.
Anyways its good to have different views
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #55,554
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:54am Feb 24, 2008 8:54am
Quoting nAVIN2007
It would be nice to hear yur analysis for once...
right now i think fundamentals are the key because my technical analysis shows that it could go either way.

if it brakes 19730 it will then brake higher and if it brakes 19580 it will brake lower.

so i think fundamentals are gona give the push towards which ever way.
i already have a sell position at 19698 for 0.5 lots
open tp
sl: 19735

i opened a sell position on the assumption that it might correct from a 2day bullish movement and not because i think it is bearish. I honestly think it has a 50-50 chance of going either way.
any feedback would be gr8.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,555
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:15am Feb 24, 2008 9:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
nope am just a bit curious to hear his analysis and i think it will be great for him especially as he plans to go live in 2 weeks or so.
im sorry to dissappoint u but it is really confusing at the moment from one hand we have technicals giving me a 50-50 chance and fundamentals say neutral.
however if u notice last time be4 BOE cut 25bps in a week we saw cable hit 19950(im hoping to c that)
and on the other hand there are talks of a 50 bps cut.

so im trying to wait it out. no rushing and if i miss my chance the market will always give me others and others. thats a fact.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,556
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:16am Feb 24, 2008 9:16am
Hear goes:

daily chart : triple bottom
The way i see the charts we have broken the channel that was leading to a downtrend, bullish break at 1.9620 showing a higher highs an higher lows.

4hr chart
looking here we can see we reached a peak 1.9686 and then bounced to go bearish which is very strong but i think we have traveled and hit TD trendline and are bouncing of it 1.9664. (see 4hr chart)
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  • #55,557
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:21am Feb 24, 2008 9:21am
confirmation of bounce after hitting 1.9664 and upward movement possibly
now looking at the 15 minute chart we can see postive diverengce which may play, leading toward bullish movement see chart. these are the reason for why im in long.


what do u guy think?
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  • #55,558
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:47am Feb 24, 2008 9:47am
hey navin check it out
this is y i posted my previous analysis.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,559
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:03am Feb 24, 2008 10:03am
http://www.forexfactory.com/C:%5CDoc...op%5Canalysis1
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"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #55,560
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:16am Feb 24, 2008 10:16am
Hey Nav and Salah k great job. I’m glad to see your charts, really it is the best thing you can do with your thoughts on what’s going on, you will find other traders further up the food chain here will help you more than random questions.
Nav a little tip with the fibs is if you go into fib properties ,fib levels, in description put @%$ after the fib number on each one when you apply fibs it will add the price at that level.
+ Its worth adding the 78.6 fib. This level can be used as a high probability point of no return i.e it is very likely to break the 100% before 61.8%
I think that’s right but anyone else feel free to chip in.

Ive had another look at my 4hr and noticed that the pin on it (clearly on yours Nav) came off a TL resistance which is reinforcing my view of a drop.

Really everyone trying to learn at least should post there charts regularly it can be very helpful and you just might get some free advise.
Best Of Luck Guys
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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