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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #55,001
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:21am Feb 20, 2008 9:21am
Quoting Carrera
Good data news for USD, so what the FOMC is thinking?
Well probbably there is no need to another rate cut. The Dow get mad and bann, then it goes down, down it goes. Then JPY push down the crosses, GU will see more sells as well EU and life goes on. IF the rate cut is real, then time to buy and enjoy life as well. No stress, Bacardi time to relax our life.

Wow, as a technical trader I can't belive I just said all this, oh well, everybody have something of crazyness time to time. Today is my time. LOL.

Take care, I'm glad u r doing ok.
True, basically I do not care what FOMC says, does etc as I am relying 90% of the time on pure technicals. I was just curious what other say/think about.
.
  • #55,002
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:33am Feb 20, 2008 9:33am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Here's my long term perspective makey2u:

Cable peaked at 2.1158 (26 year high) on Nov 09 '07, this followed the break of 2.0649,Jul 24 07 top. Sustained losses followed, action being contained in a channel en-route to 1.9334 on Jan 22 '08. The recovery from there broke the 3 month bear channel around 1.9818 to reach 1.9955 on Jan 30 '08 ahead of an almost complete unwinding to 1.9386 on Feb o7 '08. As yet, latest recovery from 1.9386 seen to be corrective and a lower highs is sought below 1.9955, ideally by 1.9780-90, ahead of an eventual breakdown through 1.9337-88 to a minimum of 1.9150-80 (Aug 2006 high/Mar 2007 low), possibly 1.8836 (Nov 06 low).

Just an info and not a reco!
I need to unwind at least a week or two to refresh myself and savor the profit I made for this month I'll be back on March. Happy Trading to everyone may the pips be with you! Thanks a lot cable guys 'til then....
  • #55,003
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:41am Feb 20, 2008 9:41am
I am reminded of the old story of the lady who's broker called her and said her shares had plunged.

She asked why and the broker said that the Russians had crossed the Bosphorus.

The next day he called and said her shares had gone up.

She said 'Did the Russians go back across the Bosphorus'

That just about sums it up

I am finished with news and all fundamentals

logic and common sense and 'the truth will out' and 'the fundamentals reassert themselves' might be true in the long run but as they say 'the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain liquid'

I have done ok in the past with forex but not hugely so and my thinking has been tainted with fundamentals and logic. I am dropping all of that now and going 100% technical
  • #55,004
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:13am Feb 20, 2008 10:13am
Quoting allserene
I am reminded of the old story of the lady who's broker called her and said her shares had plunged.

She asked why and the broker said that the Russians had crossed the Bosphorus.

The next day he called and said her shares had gone up.

She said 'Did the Russians go back across the Bosphorus'

That just about sums it up

I am finished with news and all fundamentals

logic and common sense and 'the truth will out' and 'the fundamentals reassert themselves' might be true in the long run but as they say 'the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain liquid'

I have done ok in the past with forex but not hugely so and my thinking has been tainted with fundamentals and logic. I am dropping all of that now and going 100% technical
I'm a technical trader and I been doing exellent.
Leave 10% for fundamentals, sometime will make you think if it is a good time to get in the trade.

Good for you and good luck.
  • #55,005
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:51pm Feb 20, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting 4x_Trader
I need to unwind at least a week or two to refresh myself and savor the profit I made for this month I'll be back on March. Happy Trading to everyone may the pips be with you! Thanks a lot cable guys 'til then....
ENJOY yur time off...
  • #55,006
  • Edited 1:52pm Feb 20, 2008 12:52pm | Edited 1:52pm
just back from work and i noticed we still down south..what is going on.?
I think the time has come to place the seat belts again...hang tight i think we are in a speed boat going north ...lol
  • #55,007
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:00pm Feb 20, 2008 2:00pm
I'm closing my shorts from 1.96 after we bounced off the top of the triangle. Now it bounced off the bottom. It will probably go up for a while but probably only until it hits the top of the triangle again. I'm going to stay out of longs because the R:R is not good. It's probably just going to move in a tight range, then break out big one direction, who knows which way. For people who want to long Gbp/Usd, why don't you pick a stronger currency to go long on vs. the dollar? Pound and USD are both pretty weak right now, Eur,Aus or Kiwi are much stronger right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,008
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:12pm Feb 20, 2008 3:12pm
yes the euro is looking strong but it has just zoomed up vertically 60 pips or so on the 1 hour - so there might be some profit taking first before it resumes.

I think we all agree there will be a lot of pips in cable but we can't figure out the direction !

If it starts to put on steady strength I reckon we will be at 1.97 quite quickly but 1.92 is equally likely if it doesn't get credibility soon

the DOW is holding some strength but it can't last with oil touching 100 etc etc etc - you can tell on Cramer's face and all the other 'insiders' that their concience is shrieking at them any time they recommend buying ANY stocks

only that rabid right wing puff that comes on after Cramer is predicting a thousand points on the Dow - everyone else is wearing a tin hat

So if I had to chose I would slightly favour a short- but I don't have to
  • #55,009
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:16pm Feb 20, 2008 3:16pm
right now i thinking of developing a stradegy where whatever i think i should do the opposite..i keep going the wrong way ...
  • #55,010
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:23pm Feb 20, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
right now i thinking of developing a stradegy where whatever i think i should do the opposite..i keep going the wrong way ...
Yes they are watching us... paranoia time...they know where we put our stop losses too

when we put a small trade on it goes the other way - instantly

Its a waiting game until the next stats come out

oh well - might as well do my tax return and have a piece of chocolate

Let's catch the wave tomorrow
  • #55,011
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:27pm Feb 20, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
right now i thinking of developing a stradegy where whatever i think i should do the opposite..i keep going the wrong way ...
Hey, cheer up man ! If this was easy we'd all be billionares already
Just not a good idea in general in my opion to trade pairs with no clear trend, unless they make a few nice back and forth swings like G/U did around 1.95.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #55,012
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:35pm Feb 20, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting Jurrasic
Hey, cheer up man ! If this was easy we'd all be billionares already
Just not a good idea in general in my opion to trade pairs with no clear trend, unless they make a few nice back and forth swings like G/U did around 1.95.
true true ...I wanna start the real thing soon but this really isnt helping, i suppose i just have to realise this is a tough time for forex and it cant always be like this ..otherwise i think im doomed..
technically whatever the chart say seems to happen and i need to just make sure fundamentals dont sway my decisions...oh well at least its not real money i lose yet!..thats postive i guess.
I hope your not at a loss either....
  • #55,013
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:49pm Feb 20, 2008 3:49pm
I think the best thing to do with this pair right now is just wait for this daily triangle to break to whichever side, then wait for it to retrace, and buy if it keeps going after retracing. This is for a more long term trade (probably a few days at least). You might be able to make a few pips while it ranges but I don't do that too much unless there is a lot of room within the range (there doesn't seem to be right now).
  • #55,014
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:16pm Feb 20, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting Betard
I think the best thing to do with this pair right now is just wait for this daily triangle to break to whichever side, then wait for it to retrace, and buy if it keeps going after retracing. This is for a more long term trade (probably a few days at least). You might be able to make a few pips while it ranges but I don't do that too much unless there is a lot of room within the range (there doesn't seem to be right now).
for sure we just should sit out and wait for it to trend
  • #55,015
  • Edited 6:17pm Feb 20, 2008 4:28pm | Edited 6:17pm
m
  • #55,016
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:33pm Feb 20, 2008 4:33pm
Watching the triple bottom on the daily.
  • #55,017
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:35pm Feb 20, 2008 4:35pm
Just remember it's not a triple bottom until 1.9958 is broken!
  • #55,018
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:36pm Feb 20, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting Betard
Just remember it's not a triple bottom until 1.9958 is broken!
No, do not agree. Unless it goes below, its a triple bottom for now.

It has to go through 1.9500 IMO to be considered a triple. Once that resistance is turned into support, its good enough for me.

IMO
  • #55,019
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:40pm Feb 20, 2008 4:40pm
...if cable is goin to touch 9450 tonight,i'll BUY!
  • #55,020
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:45pm Feb 20, 2008 4:45pm
it looks to me as if the triple bottom is the base and the closes are higher. i think we are starting to move in the upward direction personally
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