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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #54,881
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:41am Feb 20, 2008 12:41am
Quoting jackojacko
heys u guys positive tat its bear bias? no offence to all the great analysis but is there any chance tat when the news is released the market will hit 9600 area?
There is always the chance of price doing whatever it wants to do. It looks like it's been bottoming out the las two days, but we know news can have unpredictable results.

I was long, but got out with some profit on that little spike a couple hours ago, as I figured it would be short-lived.

For me, the overwhelming signal right now is the COT data, which can take a loooong time to produce a result. But the commercials have been long GBP, and short JPY, and have been for about a month. So, I'm looking for good entries to go long on GBPUSD, and even better, long GBPJPY.

News today may very well produce a dip on GBPUSD, as far as I'm concerned, I'll look for an entry and go long.

my two pips
  • #54,882
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:50am Feb 20, 2008 12:50am
Quoting Trillionaire
There is always the chance of price doing whatever it wants to do. It looks like it's been bottoming out the las two days, but we know news can have unpredictable results.

I was long, but got out with some profit on that little spike a couple hours ago, as I figured it would be short-lived.

For me, the overwhelming signal right now is the COT data, which can take a loooong time to produce a result. But the commercials have been long GBP, and short JPY, and have been for about a month. So, I'm looking for good entries to go long on GBPUSD, and even better, long GBPJPY.

News today may very well produce a dip on GBPUSD, as far as I'm concerned, I'll look for an entry and go long.

my two pips

same like me....price always change...whatever it want to do..
we just wait the news release yet,,,then we know...

unpredicable rite now...
news can make any changes...

if sell signal out...im cut loss...
i was long from last nite...

hrmmm....hold or cut???
hold jer la...hehehe
  • #54,883
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:59am Feb 20, 2008 12:59am
Quoting fxfariz
same like me....price always change...whatever it want to do..
we just wait the news release yet,,,then we know...

unpredicable rite now...
news can make any changes...

if sell signal out...im cut loss...
i was long from last nite...

hrmmm....hold or cut???
hold jer la...hehehe
Iwas long from last night too but if i see something i will open a short to make profit both side
  • #54,884
  • Edited 1:04am Feb 20, 2008 1:03am | Edited 1:04am
1,9494. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement.

1H is in a bearish configuration. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,9400.

First support 1.9443 , first resistance 1.9532 daily pivot 1.9492

short @ 1.9490
  • #54,885
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:04am Feb 20, 2008 1:04am
Quoting deboooo2005
1,9494. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement.

1H is in a bearish configuration. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,9400.

First support 1.9443 , first resistance 1.9532 daily pivot 1.9492

short @ 1.9490
THX bro
  • #54,886
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:08am Feb 20, 2008 1:08am
im short right now, think its deffo going down!
  • #54,887
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:10am Feb 20, 2008 1:10am
Quoting tetis
THX bro
Welcome
  • #54,888
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:13am Feb 20, 2008 1:13am
Watched closely E/U E/G and G/U. Managed to close my previous hedge with no loss by playing the E/G and G/U opposite moves. I'm out of this pair for now.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #54,889
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:24am Feb 20, 2008 1:24am
I don't see a whole lot of downside potential to the cable.

Starting with the COT data, which tell me price is eventually going to advance, and when it does it will be a significant move in a short time...often happens in a few days. (be careful though, price can an usually does move against the commercials for a while first--that's trend trading driven, and when the trend is over it makes a mad swing the other way.)

Confluence of support at about 19425:
Trendline support if drawn from the two major dips this year.
Weekly S1 Support.
Today's M1 Support.
It's also the lower Bollinger Band on the 4hr.

price is about 50pips away from this level now, news may cause price to blow thru it, but It will come back.

I'm out right now, waiting for an entry.

my 2 more pips
  • #54,890
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:31am Feb 20, 2008 1:31am
Quoting Trillionaire
I don't see a whole lot of downside potential to the cable.

Starting with the COT data, which tell me price is eventually going to advance, and when it does it will be a significant move in a short time...often happens in a few days. (be careful though, price can an usually does move against the commercials for a while first--that's trend trading driven, and when the trend is over it makes a mad swing the other way.)

Confluence of support at about 19425:
Trendline support if drawn from the two major dips this year.
Weekly S1 Support.
Today's M1 Support.
It's also the lower Bollinger Band on the 4hr.

price is about 50pips away from this level now, news may cause price to blow thru it, but It will come back.

I'm out right now, waiting for an entry.

my 2 more pips
Hi there, would you mind sharing where you get your COT data?
  • #54,891
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:04am Feb 20, 2008 2:04am
Quoting drgoodvibe
Hi there, would you mind sharing where you get your COT data?
It comes from the US government CFTC site. But there are other sites that provide the data in pretty little graphs so you can see trends, and others that provide some analysis. I dont think I'm supposed to post any sites here at risk of being accused of advertising, so google COT and commitments of traders, and find various sources. It is released every Friday, but the data is collected on the previous Tuesday.

It is futures data, and is a proxy for forex, since there is no other similar data for the forex market (that I know of). You can find COT data on the Cable (there, I kept it on subject) among other commodities.

You have to be careful using it, just because the commercials are long, doesnt mean jump in with a long trade. You still need to use good technicals and stops.
  • #54,892
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:07am Feb 20, 2008 2:07am
Quoting Designer1
news can effect on GU

but on Cable whenever there is news effect come all time cable goes way much down - so possiblly news push cable huge down according to techy!
the WORST CASE SCENARIO is priced into the markets, it can only get better!!
  • #54,893
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:11am Feb 20, 2008 2:11am
Quoting AmeriTrini
the WORST CASE SCENARIO is priced into the markets, it can only get better!!
bro could u help me...
ok if GU downtrend...how long n how much it's going down....
then when it should go up...
isn't today carry trade...
huh currently -50 (USD500)
  • #54,894
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:13am Feb 20, 2008 2:13am
Quoting AmeriTrini
the WORST CASE SCENARIO is priced into the markets, it can only get better!!
Completely agree with you ! im long @ 1.9464 with tp @ 1.95, target should be hitted before MPC
  • #54,895
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:15am Feb 20, 2008 2:15am
Quoting fxfariz
bro could u help me...
ok if GU downtrend...how long n how much it's going down....
then when it should go up...
isn't today carry trade...
huh currently -50 (USD500)
the downward movement that it is in now is currently a retracement and not a trend by any means. Im looking for it to bounce off 1.9444, if it gets that far!!

Keep stops tight!!
  • #54,896
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:18am Feb 20, 2008 2:18am
i know todays magic -- today Daily candle will be bearish so if candle will top of the bar just sell that time!
  • #54,897
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:18am Feb 20, 2008 2:18am
Quoting sDRs
Completely agree with you ! im long @ 1.9464 with tp @ 1.95, target should be hitted before MPC
sounds good, but Im targeting much more.

  • #54,898
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:25am Feb 20, 2008 2:25am
sod this im going back to bed!
  • #54,899
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:29am Feb 20, 2008 2:29am
so far the graphs tell me bearish until 1.9430 where there will be a good support line. maybe than the pair might be bullish but 1.9430 should be touched before cable decides its movement.
  • #54,900
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:30am Feb 20, 2008 2:30am
Quoting AmeriTrini
sounds good, but Im targeting much more.


so bro, did u agree this market watch?

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/

statistis trader buy GBP/USD at 86.92%..
it's quite good...
buy why still downward ya...
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