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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #54,061
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:08am Feb 15, 2008 10:08am
Quoting deboooo2005
thanks ... you in also!?
Yeh, In and out,
The technicals still suggest bearish pattern for GBP/USD..
Let see how it goes.
  • #54,062
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:10am Feb 15, 2008 10:10am
Apologize for double post.
Thank You
  • #54,063
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:13am Feb 15, 2008 10:13am
well im still long but good break of 9600 i wil not hesitate to short it is not just bulls or bears here we are trying to follow the market ,if the market says south im not going to argue
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #54,064
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:14am Feb 15, 2008 10:14am
Quoting salah k.
is the fed more likely to cut 50 or 25 bps the next meeting????????????????????????????
??????????????????
futures already priced in more than 30% chance of 75 bp cut, the rest is for 50bp cut. 25 bp cut is out of the cards hehe
  • #54,065
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:15am Feb 15, 2008 10:15am
Went short, again, last night. I follow longer terms than many in this thread. I don't always short, just when my rules tell me to. Cable bounced off the new daily trendline formed from Nov to Jan 29. Cable now looks to be in a new down channel or more likely a falling wedge, but I don't know where the lower channel resides. I am guessing around 1.94. I hope to hold this short until 1.94 for 300. Anyone agree?
  • #54,066
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:15am Feb 15, 2008 10:15am
Quoting traderchan
futures already priced in more than 30% chance of 75 bp cut, the rest is for 50bp cut. 25 bp cut is out of the cards hehe
wow that wouldnt leave bernanke much to cut later !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #54,067
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:15am Feb 15, 2008 10:15am
Quoting traderchan
futures already priced in more than 30% chance of 75 bp cut, the rest is for 50bp cut. 25 bp cut is out of the cards hehe
The market has already priced in 50 Basis Cut in Currencies..
If they go for 50 basis cut... there will be slight impact.. and then back to technicals..
if 75 Basis cut..

Its a long way when FOMC meeting comes...

Right now technicals suggest a drop in this pair.. lets see how it goes..

I have been quick in and out..
  • #54,068
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:16am Feb 15, 2008 10:16am
Quoting nonlinear
Went short, again, last night. I follow longer terms than many in this thread. I don't always short, just when my rules tell me to. Cable bounced off the new daily trendline formed from Nov to Jan 29. Cable now looks to be in a new down channel or more likely a falling wedge, but I don't know where the lower channel resides. I am guessing around 1.94. I hope to hold this short until 1.94 for 300. Anyone agree?
I agree with you!!!!
  • #54,069
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:25am Feb 15, 2008 10:25am
Quoting allserene
I am just scalping - anything could happen - but when euro and gbp agree and start something moving smoothly, I jump on for a while (either way)- so long as there is no news about

I learned my lesson when the US jobs fell and just because the US is going bad does not mean the dollar will be down

I think there are some invisible flip flops lines where the rule changes - up to a point, bad US news is dollar bad, but if the news is too bad then the dollar is the reserve currency etc etc junk comes into play and the USD rises
So the trick is to know the points where the rules change 180 degrees

Its close to where we are now which makes it scary
Spot on.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #54,070
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:31am Feb 15, 2008 10:31am
Quoting deboooo2005
hi again 1.9645 was good point to short ... i'm in
i'm out again with 32 pips * 5 lots
  • #54,071
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:33am Feb 15, 2008 10:33am
Quoting deboooo2005
i'm out again with 32 pips * 5 lots
Good Buddy..
  • #54,072
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:34am Feb 15, 2008 10:34am
Quoting mainath
Can we say that the movement of cable/$ today is utmost conducted by the direction of the carry trade pairs: GJ and GC? coz as i observed for a long time, once the equity market slump, these two pair will just drag down for 100+ pips and cable/$ will also decline for 50+ pips.

Is my observation true? can any veteran like Mr. Jacobtrader and Mr. Allserene tell me that or even correct my understanding? thanks alot~:
I cant say yes or no because my information net is not so extensive - I don't watch 20 or 30 variables as some do and in any case they would only work if there was a proven lag between the movement in a pair or a stock market and a movement in cable. The markets are not likely to make it so easy for us.

Yes there is correlation between other pairs and the stock market etc - but they are close to simultaneous most times so that does not help.

All I do is watch the result of these correlations - I used to take a lead from euro/usd when the GP/Euro were in love - now we don't have that luxury most of the time

Lag is lovely but I don't watch it much...

News lag is much more interesting - when some news comes out which I think is important and the market doesn't react - that lag is tradeable I reckon - but only if you are opinionated enough and trade small


Of course these are just my musings and some traders will be far more sophisticated with proven models that have nanoseconds of correlated lag with other pairs and markets built into their models. I am sure the big banks etc will have these models

I would rather have another ginger biscuit -
  • #54,073
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:36am Feb 15, 2008 10:36am
Check Out Commodities They Are Falling Quickly.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #54,074
  • Edited 11:51am Feb 15, 2008 10:36am | Edited 11:51am
I'll be short once 1.9600 is taken out. How far down can we go this time i wonder?

EDIT: ok 1.96 is gone let the short party begin!
  • #54,075
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:42am Feb 15, 2008 10:42am
Quoting Betard
I'll be short once 1.9600 is taken out. How far down can we go this time i wonder?
doesn't look like it has much momentum to brake that level
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #54,076
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:46am Feb 15, 2008 10:46am
Technical speaking, I still see a potential upside from around .9600 area.

Would be happy to see some1 with the opposite view, since I can't see it myself.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #54,077
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:51am Feb 15, 2008 10:51am
usd is burned as economy gains momentum heading for a possible crash,
so buying gu at these levels...

hard to bellieve it will fall below 1.9550 in the next hours. targeting 1.9750 next week.
lets see hot it goes.
  • #54,078
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:52am Feb 15, 2008 10:52am
Quoting aediaz1
Technical speaking, I still see a potential upside from around .9600 area.

Would be happy to see some1 with the opposite view, since I can't see it myself.
im not gona argue with u technically cause i dont think ur wrong but look at dow euro gold aussie cad silver
i think the answer lies there
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #54,079
  • Feb 15, 2008 10:53am Feb 15, 2008 10:53am
[quote=jacobtrader]

Jacob what s your point we can have Trendline Down to Down and Top to Top is accurate result ?

cant have top to down or down to top Trendline?
  • #54,080
  • Feb 15, 2008 11:17am Feb 15, 2008 11:17am
well we definetely went down from this morning...but it seems like there is no clear direction for cable or is it just me..
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