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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #53,641
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:09am Feb 14, 2008 6:09am
Quoting karmostaji
Daily TF
yes, I figured that, I was being a bit sarcastic. You said we all know price is in a down trend. My point was that it's nothing more than a retrace of the longer term trend. Price has vacillated around the 38% level (about 1.9595) for the past month, nearly forming a double bottom--which may turn out to be a 1-2-3 bottom when this breaks north.

oh, look, resistance again at 9700-9710, will today's 38% prove to be support?
  • #53,642
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:16am Feb 14, 2008 6:16am
Quoting Trillionaire
yes, I figured that, I was being a bit sarcastic. You said we all know price is in a down trend. My point was that it's nothing more than a retrace of the longer term trend. Price has vacillated around the 38% level (about 1.9595) for the past month, nearly forming a double bottom--which may turn out to be a 1-2-3 bottom when this breaks north.

oh, look, resistance again at 9700-9710, will today's 38% prove to be support?
You are right too , it all depends on what TF you're trading.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,643
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:17am Feb 14, 2008 6:17am
but people r seriously considering rate cuts from BOE in the near future.
so wont that like screw the whole technical analysis?????
im sorry im asking a lot of questions guys im just new.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #53,644
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:20am Feb 14, 2008 6:20am
Quoting salah k.
but people r seriously considering rate cuts from BOE in the near future.
so wont that like screw the whole technical analysis?????
im sorry im asking a lot of questions guys im just new.
you will understand everything by practicing and experiencing all different kinds of roller coasters in the FX world
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,645
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:23am Feb 14, 2008 6:23am
Quoting karmostaji
you will understand everything by practicing and experiencing all different kinds of roller coasters in the FX world
so do u advise me to stop my long accounts at wait till i see a clear direction again or should i keep them to c if they crack the resistences as technical analysis tells us.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #53,646
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:24am Feb 14, 2008 6:24am
Quoting salah k.
so do u advise me to stop my long accounts at wait till i see a clear direction again or should i keep them to c if they crack the resistences as technical analysis tells us.
It is your account, you make the decision.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,647
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:26am Feb 14, 2008 6:26am
Quoting salah k.
but people r seriously considering rate cuts from BOE in the near future.
so wont that like screw the whole technical analysis?????
im sorry im asking a lot of questions guys im just new.
everything is discounted by actual price!

if fundamentals worked you just had to enter the market 10 seconds after news and long if good news or short if bad news and you would always win...

But why is the price moves after news so erratic and uncorrelated to actual news? Because there is a million variables beyond actual news and all variables reflect on PRICE, so stick to studying price action and it will tell you the fundamentals, not the other way around

and remember the quote: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
  • #53,648
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:31am Feb 14, 2008 6:31am
Quoting salah k.
so do u advise me to stop my long accounts at wait till i see a clear direction again or should i keep them to c if they crack the resistences as technical analysis tells us.
You have to make your own assessment and decisions. Usually if you are undecided then cash is a good position. Right now I could make good arguments for long or short. I think I have stated them both in my recent posts.

oh, look, another shot at 9700-9710
  • #53,649
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:35am Feb 14, 2008 6:35am
Quoting camisa
everything is discounted by actual price!

if fundamentals worked you just had to enter the market 10 seconds after news and long if good news or short if bad news and you would always win...

But why is the price moves after news so erratic and uncorrelated to actual news? Because there is a million variables beyond actual news and all variables reflect on PRICE, so stick to studying price action and it will tell you the fundamentals, not the other way around

and remember the quote: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
thnx man that was the most satisfying answer i ever had now im convinced
thnx a lot really. it was like a puzzle in my head.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #53,650
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:42am Feb 14, 2008 6:42am
Quoting camisa
everything is discounted by actual price!

if fundamentals worked you just had to enter the market 10 seconds after news and long if good news or short if bad news and you would always win...

But why is the price moves after news so erratic and uncorrelated to actual news? Because there is a million variables beyond actual news and all variables reflect on PRICE, so stick to studying price action and it will tell you the fundamentals, not the other way around

and remember the quote: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
Good post - but the market can only discount what it knows. If the news is that a dirty nuclear bomb has exploded in wall street, the question is, does that trash all technical analysis ? Of course it does.


So unexpected news can wreck technical analysis and everything is not discounted.

That means that people like me who only nod to technical analysis, and are more fundy, (using fundies that are not discounted by the market) can still operate sucessfully while being opposite to the pure techies...


Price action can only tell you fundies if the market is CORRECTLY discounting fundies
  • #53,651
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:46am Feb 14, 2008 6:46am
so lets say that the US trade balance is more than expected the do i stop my buy positions on cable and sell or will that barely have effect on the momentum built by cable.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #53,652
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:51am Feb 14, 2008 6:51am
Resistance again at m4 (1.9708), but, uh oh, looks like a bull flag on the 15m.
  • #53,653
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:52am Feb 14, 2008 6:52am
I don't believe so Allserene...

Fundies tend to do well in the long term, but as I said you have to have long pockets to hold on tight

Technical analysis is reacting to price movements... For example in sep 11, there were lots of technical signals for shorting stocks... why, because Al Qaeda members shorted heavily just before the attacks

So you don't know WTC is going down but you go short based on the price action and without dreaming about terrorism. Then some hours later you pocketed big money with the semi-crash...

Technical analysis is the best because it can see hidden behaviours, and because it accepts that people CAN and WILL MAKE irracional choices...

Of course, technical analysis can be whatever you want as long as it makes you money by studying repetitive patterns, and it is a probability game, so you will still loose, so the main rule is having a stop loss at all times...
  • #53,654
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:53am Feb 14, 2008 6:53am
ps look at what the techies have been saying about shorting GBP for the last x days...

What annoys me about a lot of techies is their declared CERTAINTY - if it was that easy then you could make an excel model and sit back and rake it in with no worries
  • #53,655
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:55am Feb 14, 2008 6:55am
Quoting salah k.
so lets say that the US trade balance is more than expected the do i stop my buy positions on cable and sell or will that barely have effect on the momentum built by cable.
I think going long into the news is a bit risky mate we are right at alot of res,more likely to go down at this stage,imo,trading news is =danger if you dont know what your doing.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #53,656
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:56am Feb 14, 2008 6:56am
+ there is more news danger to come today,could get rocky
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #53,657
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:56am Feb 14, 2008 6:56am
Quoting salah k.
I dont think there was a housing problem or a credit crunch last time so i dont think its the same environment as the one provided last time but im still new at this so u probably know better.
soory to reply so late...i dont know better,...i just do the usual....speculate,...:, but weekly charts are very bullish against yen,...so aperantly if jacobtrader and others dont bring the pairs a little down, i will just have to buy the high, to sell higher...
its just money
  • #53,658
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:58am Feb 14, 2008 6:58am
Quoting Bones
I think going long into the news is a bit risky mate we are right at alot of res,more likely to go down at this stage,imo,trading news is =danger if you dont know what your doing.
thats what i thought im gona go out while im still winning and maybe after the news if the direction is clear i'll jump back in. thnx
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #53,659
  • Feb 14, 2008 7:00am Feb 14, 2008 7:00am
Quoting camisa
I don't believe so Allserene...

Fundies tend to do well in the long term, but as I said you have to have long pockets to hold on tight

Technical analysis is reacting to price movements... For example in sep 11, there were lots of technical signals for shorting stocks... why, because Al Qaeda members shorted heavily just before the attacks

So you don't know WTC is going down but you go short based on the price action and without dreaming about terrorism. Then some hours later you pocketed big money with the semi-crash...

Technical analysis is the best because it can see hidden behaviours, and because it accepts that people CAN and WILL MAKE irracional choices...

Of course, technical analysis can be whatever you want as long as it makes you money by studying repetitive patterns, and it is a probability game, so you will still loose, so the main rule is having a stop loss at all times...
Stop losses were the major cause of me losing money when I started this. Since I stopped using them I dont make the big losses. The big players 'sweep' the market and trigger the stops and return to where they were.
Al queda playing the market isnt the norm and is a bit too conspiracist for me anyway - most market moves are caused by previously undiscounted events that had not been noticed.

The crash from 2.11 was simply the market 'catching up' with UK fundies that had been apparent to me for months.

The technicals of the market are far from perfect in it's discounting of events because it simply does not know enough.

Why wasn't the sub prime thing discounted while it was building ? because the market either did not know or did not trade it. The fundy was there but the techies were blind.
  • #53,660
  • Feb 14, 2008 7:04am Feb 14, 2008 7:04am
SHORT SHORT SHORT
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