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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #53,241
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:25am Feb 12, 2008 7:25am
bad news for pound at 2 am this morning.... maybe a good chance to sell from top ?
  • #53,242
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:25am Feb 12, 2008 7:25am
Quoting fxcellent
too many countries depend on the dollar...look at the crap that has been comin out of the US and what dollar holds strong...too many countries stand to loos if the dollar tanks...wont happen...anyway the GBP is riding US coat tails (look at this morning news....also look at the monthly and weekly charts
the dollar has to tank. because the yanks have a chairman that is ready and willing to print money at will, increasing the money supply(figures that the FED doeent release hmm iwonder why?!) further devaluing the dollar. The FED chairman is a clown, the tresury sec Paulson continuely states "strong dollar is an interst to US" hmm why do they tell the chinese to let their yuan appreicate then!! US state policy will make the dollar tank further the prob is that sterling is also weak but the dollar def has more probs than sterling has
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #53,243
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:27am Feb 12, 2008 7:27am
Quoting YudhaGBP7
Because PPI is good n trade balance narrowed, so maybe tomorrow the CPI news will be good too? so that means BOE will retain IR next month? Gradual? am i right? any opinions?? retracement here we come.... :-)
Still remember that? CPI was better than previous, don't compare with the forecast...
"IT'S GOING TO BE LIKE COMING INTO THE JUNGLE" - K G
  • #53,244
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:27am Feb 12, 2008 7:27am
Quoting jacobtrader
Give me a Simple Answer Why GU has been falling since 9th Nov 2007 when prices were around 2.11 levels
That will explain me how much fundamentally you understand things.. If you say USD future aint good.. Why did it keep continuing falling from that levels till Now..
I would like to discuss this topic.. so probably we both can learn and share our views.

And i have lots of things to shed light Fundamentally as well as Technically why GU will fall..
they are both weak but the US is much weaker fundamentally...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #53,245
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:29am Feb 12, 2008 7:29am
Quoting makey2u
holy crap. Am I allowed to say I Told you so lol!! wiicked.....
So... cmon... who was right Since Friday ??? cmon you can say it.. i was.. i was... lol
Yes... You're right Buddy
"IT'S GOING TO BE LIKE COMING INTO THE JUNGLE" - K G
  • #53,246
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:29am Feb 12, 2008 7:29am
Quoting jacobtrader
Give me a Simple Answer Why GU has been falling since 9th Nov 2007 when prices were around 2.11 levels
That will explain me how much fundamentally you understand things.. If you say USD future aint good.. Why did it keep continuing falling from that levels till Now..
I would like to discuss this topic.. so probably we both can learn and share our views.

And i have lots of things to shed light Fundamentally as well as Technically why GU will fall..
Well if you will notice the GBP/JPY also at peak at that particular time, the reason why the GBP fell out of bed against the $ and also shall I say against JPY is because of subprime mortgages problems resulting to global equity markets losses if that has happen the high yield currencies such as GBP will be collapsed against low yield ccy particularly JPY and the $ will become strong vs. high yield currencies because most investors will look for "safe" investment due to uncertainty and falling stock markets!
  • #53,247
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:33am Feb 12, 2008 7:33am
Quoting fx local
the dollar has to tank. because the yanks have a chairman that is ready and willing to print money at will, increasing the money supply(figures that the FED doeent release hmm iwonder why?!) further devaluing the dollar. The FED chairman is a clown, the tresury sec Paulson continuely states "strong dollar is an interst to US" hmm why do they tell the chinese to let their yuan appreicate then!! US state policy will make the dollar tank further the prob is that sterling is also weak but the dollar def has more probs than sterling has
I totally agree ...BUT! the chinese are hold 1.3 billion in us dollars I know we are in for a long bearish trend no question...I also beleive that it is a global problem and the rest of the G-7 will feel the pain so i think the dolloar will stay not strong but resilliant and its the GBPs turn to feel the pain.

just my thought love both countries
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #53,248
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:35am Feb 12, 2008 7:35am
I am personall looking more at the GBP/JPY GBP/CHFand the NZD/JPY. these are the pairs that will benefit in the next 12 months
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #53,249
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:37am Feb 12, 2008 7:37am
Quoting fx local
warren buffett offered to reinsure the 3 troubled bond insurers in US, if u look at stocks since he spoke on CNBC they have all taken a bid ultimately resulting in euro/euroyen +cable/cableyen going bid due to more risk taking or less risk aversion - high yielders going up
This is just an offer.. 1 has also rejected.

What if the other 2 reject also.. You will see a HUGE FALL In Equities..

And i expect Profit taking to begin soon in Equities as well.. this will bring the GU down.. since we are in PEAK levels at the moment.
  • #53,250
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:37am Feb 12, 2008 7:37am
Still holding my shorts (up). Down cable dowwwwwwwwn
  • #53,251
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:41am Feb 12, 2008 7:41am
Quoting nonlinear
Still holding my shorts (up). Down cable dowwwwwwwwn
maximum stop loss 40 or your account blown up.
  • #53,252
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:42am Feb 12, 2008 7:42am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Well if you will notice the GBP/JPY also at peak at that particular time, the reason why the GBP fell out of bed against the $ and also shall I say against JPY is because of subprime mortgages problems resulting to global equity markets losses if that has happen the high yield currencies such as GBP will be collapsed against low yield ccy particularly JPY and the $ will become strong vs. high yield currencies because most investors will look for "safe" investment due to uncertainty and falling stock markets!
The logical extension of this is that the more the US problems threaten the world economy, the stronger the USD will become (safe reserve currency).

Therefore good news in the US will signal a plunging USD and this explains the GPB drop from 2.11

This means any sign of good news in the US means we should long cable as a reserve currency is no longer needed and it's safe for capital to flow out of the US seeking better returns

Anybody agree with this and anyone brave enough to back it ?
  • #53,253
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:43am Feb 12, 2008 7:43am
Quoting forexguru
maximum stop loss 40 or your account blown up.
http://spiranza.free.fr/Explosion.jpg
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,254
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:47am Feb 12, 2008 7:47am
Kaboom!
  • #53,255
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:47am Feb 12, 2008 7:47am
Quoting karmostaji
http://spiranza.free.fr/Explosion.jpg
"IT'S GOING TO BE LIKE COMING INTO THE JUNGLE" - K G
  • #53,256
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:54am Feb 12, 2008 7:54am
Quoting allserene
The logical extension of this is that the more the US problems threaten the world economy, the stronger the USD will become (safe reserve currency).

Therefore good news in the US will signal a plunging USD and this explains the GPB drop from 2.11

This means any sign of good news in the US means we should long cable as a reserve currency is no longer needed and it's safe for capital to flow out of the US seeking better returns

Anybody agree with this and anyone brave enough to back it ?
I dont agree with any sign of good news in the US means we should buy GBP vs. $, what I'm talking about here is that if and only if there is a problem like subprime mortgages resulting to uncertainty and heavy losses of hedge funds and global equity markets but when it comes to fundamental (economic) news, we have a very obvious approached => good news=good for the $!
  • #53,257
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:58am Feb 12, 2008 7:58am
if any good signs out of the us this means small gains on. I trade trend and patterns on GBP/USD if news is good out of us dont really see much lately but when it BAD long yen..for risk aversion
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #53,258
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:59am Feb 12, 2008 7:59am
Quoting jacobtrader
This is just an offer.. 1 has also rejected.

What if the other 2 reject also.. You will see a HUGE FALL In Equities..

And i expect Profit taking to begin soon in Equities as well.. this will bring the GU down.. since we are in PEAK levels at the moment.
if they reject the offers then that means they may have something worth holding on to? anyway provided a bid for the day L/T very uncertain, equites perhaps diff secondary arguement, however the dollar shall weaken in any case since the federal reserve print money by lowering fed funds and discount rate, how far down and up cable shall go is down to the markets...

every1 has their own thoughts and the indifference of opinon is what makes markets move and seek fair value. was cable at 2.11 over valued - yes for sure (big imbalance there) however if UK housing market holds up in UK and there are no more northen rocks then sterling shall not be as weak as the dollar
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #53,259
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:00am Feb 12, 2008 8:00am
Quoting karmostaji
http://spiranza.free.fr/Explosion.jpg
  • #53,260
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:06am Feb 12, 2008 8:06am
Quoting samclider
your right that is pretty funny
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
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