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  • #4,181
  • Feb 9, 2008 6:39pm Feb 9, 2008 6:39pm
The only difference between now and 2005 however is the fact that we probably have seen a bottom to the dollar and an entrance into a recessionary environment.
  • #4,182
  • Feb 9, 2008 9:01pm Feb 9, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting CounterTrend
At my end it looks like a minor pullback on weekly, before a resumption of the longer term uptrend above 1.50.

Point of view, not a recommendation to buy. You can even expect further drop, but minor weekly top should hold, if not the 50 ma should.

So we can't really rule out one move back to 1.4100/1.4000 depends on the movement of this average.

But that being said, it does not damage the bullish picture at all.
Look at the drop of 2005 which even hit 200 MA, then it resumed its uptrend.

The question left is when to buy?
indeed, a fail of 4450 will bleed to 43xx .. a fail of 4300 suggests more downside.

However...

From here: 4512, I'm expecting a correction to 4650-4700. I only want to see things from week to week right now. Buy limits @ 4470

Cheers!
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #4,183
  • Feb 9, 2008 9:10pm Feb 9, 2008 9:10pm
it smels like an euro selloff after G7 .
after Almumia and other commentaries.

probably after selloff then some market consolidation and then try to reach new highs... nice opportunities next week.
why am i saying this???

watch out what has happened most of the last times and especially last one .
  • #4,184
  • Feb 9, 2008 11:49pm Feb 9, 2008 11:49pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
After the past 2 days in free fall I need to clean my shorts!
Me too, I don't wanna skydiving any more!!
  • #4,185
  • Edited 12:43am Feb 10, 2008 12:29am | Edited 12:43am
This guy has something to back up what he says.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency

Another article:

"
The U.S. problems

The U.S. effort to tackle the credit crunch was a key discussion topic, the officials said.
The joint G-7 statement took note of the downturn in the global economy, but it did not forecast a recession.

"The world confronts a more challenging and uncertain environment than when we met last October, though its fundamentals as a whole remain solid," the statement said.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said European economies are basically sound, although he acknowledged that volatile financial markets were setting off "unusually high uncertainty in the real economy."

Trichet said the ECB's priority was to fight inflation.
"We will do whatever we need to do to be credible in maintaining price stability in the medium term," he told reporters after the meeting.

Senior ministers had already thrown cold water on hopes that the meeting would produce any sweeping policy agreements -- such as a unified move to cut interest rates.

The Fed slashed a key U.S. interest rate by 1.25 points to 3 percent late last month, and investors have speculated that more cuts may be coming. On Thursday, the Bank of England cut its rate a quarter point to 5.25 percent.

The European Central Bank, which sets policy for the euro-zone, appears to be leaving the door open for a rate cut, but it is unlikely to make as drastic a move as the U.S. because of inflation concerns. The Bank of Japan is even less capable of action with its key rate at 0.5 percent."



http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/09/news...ion=2008020908
  • #4,186
  • Feb 10, 2008 1:40am Feb 10, 2008 1:40am
Most of the forecast I seen vouch for a little more downward and then a nice rally upwards. Hope it is true for I have quite a few longs. Any big fundamental news this week?
  • #4,187
  • Edited 7:41am Feb 10, 2008 2:12am | Edited 7:41am
At this point everything is possible. The last two bouces were quite different. Those, who expected the second bounce (which was very sharp) like the first one (which was very smooth) got it wrong. Also here at this point now 4395 could be a nice bottoming out aerea but also a fake breakout to the downside (with several 100 pips) is possible and then an even sharper move up. You can not calculate or predict the market.
Between May and November 2006 we had a similar situation. First bounce was slow, second bounce was very sharp, third bounce took a long time, the bottoming out process took a whole week. Interesting enough in those days there was no fake breakout to the downside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2006.gif Size: 16 KB
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #4,188
  • Feb 10, 2008 6:24am Feb 10, 2008 6:24am
You know. You never fully predict when corrective moves end until a nice rally occurs. The market always does tricks, sometimes it won't give any sign that corrective move ended. Maybe its safer to buy in rallies. There is the 50MA, and many factors but.. it does not have to test that fully.

Keep in mind that the euro has been in long, lasting uptrend. A push to 4200 levels perhaps is needed. Or just shy of 1.3 levels. I do not think the uptrend will lose its steam but what the weekly chart says it never retracemed more than 38 fib from the rally at 1.1639. The 1.41/42 are good for 23fib.

Very risk to put on longs now.. unsure
  • #4,189
  • Feb 10, 2008 12:36pm Feb 10, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting CounterTrend
You know. You never fully predict when corrective moves end until a nice rally occurs. The market always does tricks, sometimes it won't give any sign that corrective move ended. Maybe its safer to buy in rallies. There is the 50MA, and many factors but.. it does not have to test that fully.

Keep in mind that the euro has been in long, lasting uptrend. A push to 4200 levels perhaps is needed. Or just shy of 1.3 levels. I do not think the uptrend will lose its steam but what the weekly chart says it never retracemed more than 38 fib from the rally at 1.1639. The 1.41/42 are good for 23fib.

Very risk to put on longs now.. unsure
I agree with you there, I am expecting the EU to push down below to near 1.4200 levels. Especially since it broke the 50MA levels. Next supports are lows from the previous month and 100MA's (which seem to have provided a lot of support; and tested I believe 2 or 3 times). A break through these levels could see a large move downwards.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,190
  • Feb 10, 2008 1:50pm Feb 10, 2008 1:50pm
What broker has the quickest quotes for news trading to use as indicators.
I want to try to play my broker,s lagging of quotes in the news time/arbitrage/
Who has the quickest and true news quotes. Or maybe there is a site with quickest live news quotes.
  • #4,191
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:29pm Feb 10, 2008 2:29pm
[I agree with your thoughts.
  • #4,192
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:42pm Feb 10, 2008 2:42pm
As i said before i feel thepresent rally is in a triangle an a,b,c,d,e triangle and with the final leg of the triangle at 1.4390 trendlline area and oversold daily conditions i would be looking for a steep reversal to the upside above 1.50 and towards 1.5672 trendline resistance... Trade Wisely... Happy pipping This week..
  • #4,193
  • Feb 10, 2008 6:56pm Feb 10, 2008 6:56pm
So far the end of weekend price action corroborates my bullish short term view of EUR/USD. We might see upper 1.4500 - lower 1.4600 by NY open. The raunchy smell of another Fed rate cut is in the air... a Valentine's day gift to FX traders, perhaps?
  • #4,194
  • Feb 10, 2008 7:34pm Feb 10, 2008 7:34pm
Quoting Subdude
So far the end of weekend price action corroborates my bullish short term view of EUR/USD. We might see upper 1.4500 - lower 1.4600 by NY open. The raunchy smell of another Fed rate cut is in the air... a Valentine's day gift to FX traders, perhaps?
Would that make Bernanke my Valentine?
  • #4,195
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:24pm Feb 10, 2008 8:24pm
really not buyin euros now, Trichet was really nervous with a weak voice in G7, very different trichet than we saw last time...

maybe ll catch it lower, of course euro has the fundamentals to go 1,50 and above in the long run, but in the short term till things clear out... definetely, not buying euros even when this level seem so temtping.
  • #4,196
  • Feb 10, 2008 10:13pm Feb 10, 2008 10:13pm
Hmm an itch is telling me that we might bounce off of the support line again.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,197
  • Feb 10, 2008 10:28pm Feb 10, 2008 10:28pm
where is support? its heading up currently.
  • #4,198
  • Feb 10, 2008 11:05pm Feb 10, 2008 11:05pm
Quoting slappy
where is support? its heading up currently.
Support line is located at 100 Day MA currently around 1.447ish which was tested I believe last week thursday and friday. Currently trading above the 100 Day MA at 1.455ish which may be bullish in this term. I want to say that it is bearish even with the triple top, but I am starting to get uncertain. Well if I get stopped out, guess it was meant to be haha. 1.4625 SL on my short position.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,199
  • Feb 10, 2008 11:14pm Feb 10, 2008 11:14pm
1.455 20 SMA (center BB) on H4...we get through here, could be good for longs.
  • #4,200
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:07am Feb 11, 2008 12:07am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
1.455 20 SMA (center BB) on H4...we get through here, could be good for longs.
I think 1.4560 has been the target for the last 36 Hrs. Might be the top for now, will most likely go into consolidation for now around this level.

Swissy looks to have bottomed out also.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
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