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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #52,821
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:23am Feb 8, 2008 8:23am
Could it be that the very good CAD news is slowing the GPB from going south??? Also, should we close our trades before the US news comes out??? WOw, it is moving now I hope, lol...
  • #52,822
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:29am Feb 8, 2008 8:29am
Quoting TradeHound
Could it be that the very good CAD news is slowing the GPB from going south??? Also, should we close our trades before the US news comes out??? WOw, it is moving now I hope, lol...
that depends on your strategy
  • #52,823
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:38am Feb 8, 2008 8:38am
down cable down.
  • #52,824
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:09am Feb 8, 2008 9:09am

Why has the Pound Sterling been falling?

Because of the weak dollar, many in the UK have not been aware that the pound has suffered its biggest fall for 15 years. The pound has been strong against the dollar, but, only because the dollar has been very weak. On a trade weighted index, the Pound has fallen by 6.1%. The fall has been most noticeable in the past 6 months. Trade weighted index means the value of the pound is compared against a basked of other currencies. A higher weighting is given to those currencies which form a bigger share of trade. The biggest weighting is therefore given to the Euro.
Reasons for the decline in Pound Sterling include:

  1. Economic Growth in UK forecast to fall. This means that interest rates are likely to fall. Lower interest rates make the UK a less attractive place to invest hot money flows (get a better return elsewhere)

  1. Housing Crash. Some predict a fall in house prices like the US. Even if they don’t crash, it is probable they will at least stagnate. Consumer confidence will fall. The housing market is one of the main reasons for the predicted slowdown in the economy.

  1. Balance of Payments. 2007 has seen a widening of the UK current account deficit. This leads to an an outflow of foreign currency, putting downward pressure on sterling.

  1. Strength of the Euro. Many are predicting the Euro is taking over the dollar as the world’s dominant currency. This is increasing demand for Euro’s and causing the Euro’s strength at expense of other currencies such as the Pound Sterling.

Predictions for Dollar - Pound Sterling

After having reached a peak of $2.10. The Pound has slipped back to $2. On the futures markets the most common prediction for the pound is for it to fall back to $1.80.

Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #52,825
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:24am Feb 8, 2008 9:24am
Who knows why, but cable has been and is in long term down trend since Nov.
  • #52,826
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:26am Feb 8, 2008 9:26am
it's falling because we keep cutting rates here in the UK and the future rate outlook is down. The euro rate outlook has not been as negative, though yesterday trichet did make a suggestion that rate cuts could be coming soon for the euro
  • #52,827
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:32am Feb 8, 2008 9:32am
target reached...
congratz to those who took my call yesterday.
* long @1.9370 [email protected].

now in my opinion is better to stay out the market as this weekend is G7.
last time we saw some wild moves...
so beware.
  • #52,828
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:33am Feb 8, 2008 9:33am
yeah, but we cut more than you.
  • #52,829
  • Feb 8, 2008 10:22am Feb 8, 2008 10:22am
Quoting nonlinear
yeah, but we cut more than you.
This has to be something to do with US investors pulling back for fear of needing cash in the US allied with perceived lower returns overseas

A very interesting time and if cable goes to 1.92 or less then I will believe 1.82

Glad I sold 50% of my GBP at over 2.0000 as an average when I came to the US
The other 50% is earning fixed interest for 12 months at 6% so I guess I will have to wait until after the US recession before money starts flowing into GBP and I can start buying USD again..

6% guaranteed interest is better than buying US shares right now I guess

15 minute chart says i should short right NOW if we are in a continuing downslide
  • #52,830
  • Feb 8, 2008 10:33am Feb 8, 2008 10:33am
Quoting acidguy
target reached...
congratz to those who took my call yesterday.
* long @1.9370 [email protected].

now in my opinion is better to stay out the market as this weekend is G7.
last time we saw some wild moves...
so beware.
9370?

wat are u talking about the low was 9386
{Promotion Removed}
  • #52,831
  • Feb 8, 2008 10:42am Feb 8, 2008 10:42am
Quoting quickh23a
9370?

wat are u talking about the low was 9386
Hhaha.. Quickha23a you are correct..
Acidguy.. accept it
  • #52,832
  • Feb 8, 2008 12:25pm Feb 8, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting quickh23a
9370?

wat are u talking about the low was 9386
dang, in my charts the price went some seconds there.... so it took the entry position, but anyway, not going to argue with my broker if that keeps me in green.

http://i29.tinypic.com/ruqkvs.gif


same with u/chf went straight to 106.90 the another day, but did not see that on other brokers chart... maybe another datafeed???
dont know, but for me its profitable since i dont use sls :

http://i27.tinypic.com/2zpqyk0.gif
(yep, this trade in negative, but who cares, we ll get there soon... )
  • #52,833
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:05pm Feb 8, 2008 1:05pm
cable has become to fall..now at 1.9450
target see 1.9350
  • #52,834
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:24pm Feb 8, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting w4533m
Getting banned aint matter but raising the voice against ODDS matters alot

SO NO WORRIES.
i guess it don't.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #52,835
  • Edited 1:39pm Feb 8, 2008 1:28pm | Edited 1:39pm
am i correct in saying that london has been closed for 2 hours and aproximately 30 minutes? in is now 2:27 est? so the rollover happened at 5 pm gmt in europe? or is there only i roll at 5 pm eastern?
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #52,836
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:37pm Feb 8, 2008 1:37pm
Quoting Moe
i guess it don't.
I guess not.....
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #52,837
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:38pm Feb 8, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting fxcellent
am i correct in saying that london has been closed for 2 hours? and aproximately 30 minutes in is now 2:27 est? so the rollover happened at 5 pm gmt in europe?
No, it is 5 PM EST.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #52,838
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:41pm Feb 8, 2008 1:41pm
thanks a mill, I was just wondering if there is only one roll. at 5 pm eastern then that means it happens after the close on wednesday in london...hmmmmmmmmm
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #52,839
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:48pm Feb 8, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting fxcellent
thanks a mill, I was just wondering if there is only one roll. at 5 pm eastern then that means it happens after the close on wednesday in london...hmmmmmmmmm
Wish we got the rollover three times, Asian, European and American. We would be rich by now......lol
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #52,840
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:58pm Feb 8, 2008 1:58pm
I was just wondering for price adjusting reasons preroll..thanks
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
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