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Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

Quoting Snuffleupagus
I also suspect it will be down due to the bearish close and bearish outside weekly bar. I am curious what the basis is for your price projection (1.4525/70) and then your reasoning behind a sharp reverse.
For sharp correction I have almost the same reasons why you think it should go down plus USDX which hasn't covered its gap at 75.08 yet.
1.4570-75 is the nearest obvious support (current year's low) while 1.4520-25 would be the next one.
Obviously, the EUR/USD went down much more than I initially anticipated. Now, since most of the majors except for the USD/CHF and USD/JPY have changed the direction of the main move of the year; and also considering that normally there is an about 80% chance for the USD to form it's yearly top or bottom in January we do have a dilemma. I think it would make sense to take some strategic shorts on the EUR/USD just as soon as the market covers the gap on the USDX. But the position can be taken and kept only for as long as the EUR/USD stays below the current month's high.
is this diamond need another leg to perform or we consider it done and ready for next north journey ? or maybe it will be a two diagonal diamond ? thanks
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Quoting ayejkt
is this diamond need another leg to perform or we consider it done and ready for next north journey ? or maybe it will be a two diagonal diamond ? thanks
Too early to make a prediction like that. So far it's not even half-formed.
Diamond @ usdcad?
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Quoting kihl
Diamond @ usdcad?
Possible.
Obvious channel resistance-trendline at 1.9845-50 is capping the cable for the moment but, considering that levels above 217.00 on the GBP/JPY seem like a must now, I don't think it will be forever. For today it might work though.
From the technical point of view it looks highly likely that the initial reaction on today's Fed's rates decision is going to be USD positive. It makes me think that a 25bp rates cut is more likely than the one for 50bp .
Here is the classic diamond in progress on cable 60 min chart.
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Potential dual-diagonaled diamond on the EUR/USD daily.
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Quoting Igrok
Obviously, the EUR/USD went down much more than I initially anticipated. Now, since most of the majors except for the USD/CHF and USD/JPY have changed the direction of the main move of the year; and also considering that normally there is an about 80% chance for the USD to form it's yearly top or bottom in January we do have a dilemma. I think it would make sense to take some strategic shorts on the EUR/USD just as soon as the market covers the gap on the USDX. But the position can be taken and kept only for as long as the EUR/USD stays below the current month's high.
The gap on the USDX at 75.08 has been filled yesterday without EUR/USD changing the direction of the main move of the month and the year.
There is a confirmed MACD crossover on monthly cable that places a "must reach" longer-term target at 1.7050.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Igrok
Here is the classic diamond in progress on cable 60 min chart.
You are right about the diamond and it has played out correctly. i have a question about how you would trade it thou. I see a tiny retracement back to the triangle after the break. how patient are you before committing or do you expect a retrace before placing a trade and look for that?

P.S. you may have commented on the cables previous move on the 21 or even the 24 of january but if you wouldnt mind a quick recap on those moves i would apreciate any reference to the page in your book i should look to for an explanation of those moves.
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
Quoting Igrok
Potential dual-diagonaled diamond on the EUR/USD daily.
It appears it has spiked up to 1.4951 and then made a strong move down creating a daily bearish outside bar.

Did the spike up to 1.4951 (30 pips higher) turn this into a regular diamond? If so, the longest diagonal is upward typically meaning we would eventually expect a break downward. How many pips within each other do the highs need to be to determine dual-diagonal vs. single diagonal?
Quoting Snuffleupagus
It appears it has spiked up to 1.4951 and then made a strong move down creating a daily bearish outside bar.

Did the spike up to 1.4951 (30 pips higher) turn this into a regular diamond? If so, the longest diagonal is upward typically meaning we would eventually expect a break downward. How many pips within each other do the highs need to be to determine dual-diagonal vs. single diagonal?
I doubt we have already seen the top on the EUR/USD. Yesterday it made a new high of the year along with AUD/USD and now the only maverick among majors is CAD/USD, which should join the club soon with the most likely "must reach" target being at around .9400.
Coming back to EUR/USD, I guess it is highly likely to see 1.5100 area before we can expect it to turn down again. In this case the diamond may not be formed at all or it will make a longer main diagonal than it is now.
  • Post #796
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 3, 2008 1:25am Feb 2, 2008 4:03pm | Edited Feb 3, 2008 1:25am
Quote
Quoting telluv
You are right about the diamond and it has played out correctly. i have a question about how you would trade it thou. I see a tiny retracement back to the triangle after the break. how patient are you before committing or do you expect a retrace before placing a trade and look for that?
The easiest way to trade would be to place automatic entry stops at the low of the day and, when executed, to place protective stops above the high of the day.In this case a particular template #18.1 could be used.

Quote
P.S. you may have commented on the cables previous move on the 21 or even the 24 of january but if you wouldn't mind a quick recap on those moves i would apreciate any reference to the page in your book i should look to for an explanation of those moves.

I don't explain moves as there're could be a million of reasons for them. But at that time technically cable was moving within a perfect channel clearly seen on daily charts and its natural target should be located at the upper border after bouncing off of the lower one. This is exactly what it has done eventually. The whole book is about how to deal with different technical situations.
posting picture of daily GBP/CHF. Was wondering if there can be agreement on this being a diamond first. Also looks like it has not changed main direction down by breaking yearly high earlier in the year 2.2495 on Jan 2nd yet. But diamond height might suggest coming close to it yearly high although a break to the downside suggested by yearly direction can see lows from may 2003 as low as 2.0852.
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
Quoting telluv
posting picture of daily GBP/CHF. Was wondering if there can be agreement on this being a diamond first. Also looks like it has not changed main direction down by breaking yearly high earlier in the year 2.2495 on Jan 2nd yet. But diamond height might suggest coming close to it yearly high although a break to the downside suggested by yearly direction can see lows from may 2003 as low as 2.0852.
Obiously it is not a diamond yet. It might turn into one later but it's too early to tell at the moment.
Seems my "must" level at .9120 on AUD/USD mentioned earlier is about to get hit. But I still see some potential for it to get higher than that. .9190 is to be the likely target within this particular move.
Another classic diamond on 60 min USD/CHF chart. This one is more likely to become a continuation pattern initially targeting 1.0980-90 and then 1.1045-50 areas.
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