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Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

Quoting SeekingLight
Quite frankly I am highly interested in these(projection targets / size) since I am trying to match up monthly s/r areas with all this

If you'd like to share any of the methods on how to calculate the target or the target itself, it'd always be useful =)

Hope you're off to a good start to the new year and rid of all the viruses et al(friend of mine just caught the flu again...so far I have escaped that stuff well!)

Seeking
The biggest problem in dealing with H&S formation is that, while being extremely popular among novices, this formation has a very high rate of failure. Considering that the majority of traders cannot even identify this formation correctly, it makes H&S situations almost non-tradeable for a great majority of market participants. The only good thing is that even when a mistake has been made in the identification of such a pattern, the market still can go in the direction of the initial position and generate some random profits despite the reason for taking this position was completely wrong. So, projecting a target is not a tough task as it's described in each and every TA textbook, but correct pattern identification is a problem. Thus I would recommend to pay more attention to this part and to learn it first rather than to worry about something of secondary importance.
Quoting Igrok
It is easy to define the difference between the two as in real H&S the top of the right shoulder should never be higher than the top of the left one if to measure the distance from what appears to be a potential neck-line.
I suppose then the safest way to look for trades is to wait until the formation is fully formed and wait for the breaks. I remember you saying this before, it just makes sense the more you watch the market.

I'm sticking to only looking for reversal diamonds at the moment.

Like this one the other day on the AUD..
The height of the diamond was about 100pips, so thats where i set my target. Was this realistic?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.JPG Size: 56 KB
Quoting Blackinc
I suppose then the safest way to look for trades is to wait until the formation is fully formed and wait for the breaks. I remember you saying this before, it just makes sense the more you watch the market.

I'm sticking to only looking for reversal diamonds at the moment.

Like this one the other day on the AUD..
The height of the diamond was about 100pips, so thats where i set my target. Was this realistic?
Reversal diamonds normally don't have projected targets and may fully cover the previous trend. Continuation diamonds are usually formed right in the middle of a trend.
Quoting Igrok
The biggest problem in dealing with H&S formation is that, while being extremely popular among novices, this formation has a very high rate of failure. Considering that the majority of traders cannot even identify this formation correctly, it makes H&S situations almost non-tradeable for a great majority of market participants.

the market still can go in the direction of the initial position and generate some random profits despite the reason for taking this position was completely wrong.

Oh I agree about the H&S, I actually warn about it as well, because people see it everywhere; they WANT to see it..

I was just wondering about the Diamond projection you mentioned, the HNS one I know.
I find it rather silly to sell the break of the HNS neckline; instead either the head gave enough clue that there is a potential for direction change and you look for a proper setup "inside" the formation(as I said, I use price action and GJ offered many opportunities along the way) or you run risk of having insanely bad stops/leverage etc and are basically gambling just as much on the neckline as if you were entering anyplace else.

As you said - often it leads to a certain randomness and I don't like that at all.
Trust price. Know yourself.
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh I agree about the H&S, I actually warn about it as well, because people see it everywhere; they WANT to see it..

I was just wondering about the Diamond projection you mentioned, the HNS one I know.
I find it rather silly to sell the break of the HNS neckline; instead either the head gave enough clue that there is a potential for direction change and you look for a proper setup "inside" the formation(as I said, I use price action and GJ offered many opportunities along the way) or you run risk of having insanely bad stops/leverage etc and are basically gambling just as much on the neckline as if you were entering anyplace else.

As you said - often it leads to a certain randomness and I don't like that at all.
I already told about the diamond projection above. It tends to cover the previous trend when it plays as reversal or doubles the previous trend when it's a continuation pattern.

The problem with H&S correct udentification is undrestandable, because even in the TA textbooks a correct H&S sketch is often followed by an incorrect illustration taken from the real market chart. I guess it happens because most of the TA authors have rather theoretical knowledge being themselves unable to identify some of the patterns under real market conditions. TA books are full of pictures misrepresenting the concepts they are supposed to illustrate.
Quoting Igrok
Reversal diamonds normally don't have projected targets and may fully cover the previous trend. Continuation diamonds are usually formed right in the middle of a trend.
So basically i could of still been holding the trade.. Basically waiting for a set up to stop the trade?

Hmmm... i must ponder on this one.

Can i ask then, where should i have placed my TP? I know you say that AUD is a must for 9120. But it needed to change direction for the year before you thought that..
Quoting Blackinc
So basically i could of still been holding the trade.. Basically waiting for a set up to stop the trade?

Hmmm... i must ponder on this one.

Can i ask then, where should i have placed my TP? I know you say that AUD is a must for 9120. But it needed to change direction for the year before you thought that..
I don't know what it is going to do after reaching .9100-20. I can only see the obvious when the market shows it to me.
Changing the direction of the main move of the year was only setting the timing and the sequence but not the target.
Quoting Igrok
The minimal target [on the EUR/CHF] for the moment is located at 1.6174, which is a must...
The must level on the EUR/CHF has just been hit. I'm out.
Quoting Blackinc
Monthly Chart

And the idea is....?
Quoting Igrok
And the idea is....?
That chart was wrong. Message deleted.

Monthly Chart, idea being 4th touch and through. I can't see why this can't get to 101.50 (lows in 1999, 2005). Proper chart posted below.

But as this is another time my charts have stuffed up, a confirmation that what i've posted is correct would be great.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Blackinc
That chart was wrong. Message deleted.

Monthly Chart, idea being 4th touch and through. I can't see why this can't get to 101.50 (lows in 1999, 2005). Proper chart posted below.

But as this is another time my charts have stuffed up, a confirmation that what i've posted is correct would be great.
The lower line was briefly penetrated in November on the third approach and because of that makes no technical sense since then. The horizontal level at around 101.50 used to work as a support and a lower border of a huge triangle but has also lost its significance since the triangle's upper border is undefined. It's nothing. It may or may not go to 101.50 and may or may not break it. I can't see any trading idea in this chart.
Quoting Igrok
The lower line was briefly penetrated in November on the third approach and because of that makes no technical sense since then.
I can understand this, but with different brokers giving different prices, how do you know whats right?

Quoting Igrok
The horizontal level at around 101.50 used to work as a support and a lower border of a huge triangle but has also lost its significance since the triangle's upper border is undefined.
So even though it broke to the upside, the horizontal of the triangle becomes obsolete?
Quoting Blackinc
I can understand this, but with different brokers giving different prices, how do you know whats right?
So even though it broke to the upside, the horizontal of the triangle becomes obsolete?
The initial penetration was for 80 pips. Haven't seen dealers with that much difference in quotes. Besides I have a pretty good data feed.

The upper border has been broken on both sides numerous times. If one border has no signifacance why the other one has to have it?
Quoting Igrok
The initial penetration was for 80 pips. Haven't seen dealers with that much difference in quotes. Besides I have a pretty good data feed.

The upper border has been broken on both sides numerous times. If one border has no signifacance why the other one has to have it?

Hmm, this leads me to the question whether you "believe" in horizontal s/r levels(not as "delays" but as real turning points / toggles) then and which ones(criteria, not price level I mean) at that if so
Trust price. Know yourself.
Quoting SeekingLight
Hmm, this leads me to the question whether you "believe" in horizontal s/r levels(not as "delays" but as real turning points / toggles) then and which ones(criteria, not price level I mean) at that if so
Fourth approach to any trendline, whether it's horizontal or not, calls for an imminent break. The issue is whether there will be a good follow-through or not.
I've got the low of the year for the Euro at 1.4588(1/1/08), and the price a few hours back at 1.4593.

I went long from 1.4643 with a stop at 1.4585, and targeting 1.50.

Just want to make sure that low is correct and it wasn't broken..

Trade taken mostly on risk:reward.
Quoting Blackinc
I've got the low of the year for the Euro at 1.4588(1/1/08), and the price a few hours back at 1.4593.

I went long from 1.4643 with a stop at 1.4585, and targeting 1.50.

Just want to make sure that low is correct and it wasn't broken..

Trade taken mostly on risk:reward.
The idea is absolutely correct. The low of the year is 1.4575 and the yesterday's low was 1.4592.
On EURUSD does the formation on the 1H/4H qualify as a diamond? The second half isn't quite bouncing off the lower TL before touching the upper. If not a diamond could the first half be valid making it a continuation pattern?
Quoting Snuffleupagus
On EURUSD does the formation on the 1H/4H qualify as a diamond? The second half isn't quite bouncing off the lower TL before touching the upper. If not a diamond could the first half be valid making it a continuation pattern?
Doesn't look like a diamond to me. Swissy on the same time frame looks even more diamond like but still not very convincing. I don't know what kind of pattern is that but seems that the first move on the EUR/USD is likely to be down to around 1.4525/70 before a potential sharp reverse.
Quoting Igrok
Doesn't look like a diamond to me. Swissy on the same time frame looks even more diamond like but still not very convincing. I don't know what kind of pattern is that but seems that the first move on the EUR/USD is likely to be down to around 1.4525/70 before a potential sharp reverse.
I also suspect it will be down due to the bearish close and bearish outside weekly bar. I am curious what the basis is for your price projection (1.4525/70) and then your reasoning behind a sharp reverse.
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