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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #51,321
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:52pm Jan 29, 2008 12:52pm
gu broke the uptrend is now back. not very good for gbp bulls.
but also this is not really good for usd bulls.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2whimx1.gif

market is poisoned with the probably tomorrow rate cut. beware.
bears and bulls are full of reasons why they should move the market in any direction. they probably in masses waiting to start pushing the sell or buy button.

so probably the ride is going to be rocky in the next hours.
maybe some consolidation. before any move big move???.

anyway, short again with a microscopical lot:
  • #51,322
  • Edited 1:07pm Jan 29, 2008 1:05pm | Edited 1:07pm
Acidguy, agreed, GBP and EUR will be squeezed at the current levels until closer to the FED rate announcement.
Best strategy for the next few hours is to go long/short on the respective pivots:

long:1.9840 (daily open)
short:1.9914

Realistic targets in both cases - 1.9880

Of course, those limits are not likely to be hit exactly, so I will start entering 10 pips prior to each one. Just now had a nice short from 1.9903
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #51,323
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:10pm Jan 29, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting forexmoments
I don't think the Cable will move that much today. It's seems bound to a range.
What did I tell you guys?
  • #51,324
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:20pm Jan 29, 2008 1:20pm
that what i see cable could test 2.0029 ... since it short 2.163 to 1.9333
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #51,325
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:36pm Jan 29, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting deboooo2005
that what i see cable could test 2.0029 ... since it short 2.163 to 1.9333
Not quite sure it will reach that high. But we'll see.
  • #51,326
  • Edited 1:40pm Jan 29, 2008 1:39pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting deboooo2005
that what i see cable could test 2.0029 ... since it short 2.163 to 1.9333
I agree.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #51,327
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:47pm Jan 29, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting deboooo2005
that what i see cable could test 2.0029 ... since it short 2.163 to 1.9333
sorry, but when did the cable hit 2.163??
  • #51,328
  • Edited 1:52pm Jan 29, 2008 1:47pm | Edited 1:52pm
ok
  • #51,329
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:50pm Jan 29, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting deboooo2005
that what i see cable could test 2.0029 ... since it short 2.163 to 1.9333
Very likely. Price often retraces to the 50 fib b4 continuing in the direction of the trend. Attached is the Weekly GU chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly gu.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #51,330
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:51pm Jan 29, 2008 1:51pm
I have 1.9888, from oanda.

Quoting logical1
can someone please confirm what cable is trading at right now.
thanks in advance,

your questions how can I help you?you: i have cable/usd trading at 1.9897 on metatrader, yet on XXX it is 1.9845???? nearly 50 pips less??? ANy reason why?Operator: live account?you: yesOperator: please contact the dealing deskOperator: if there's a misquote they will rectify it for youyou: ok....thank youOperator: sure
  • #51,331
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:53pm Jan 29, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting logical1
ok
yep, 1.9888 on FXDD Live account....
  • #51,332
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:06pm Jan 29, 2008 2:06pm
you really sure we are going to hit 2.0100 again in short term?

big banks and institutions are net short cable.
what do you think about today uk data. not good at all....

big rate cuts coming from there, thats why started the fall of cable in the first place.
  • #51,333
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:16pm Jan 29, 2008 2:16pm
Fundamentally, little has changed for GU.

Technically last week was a bullish bar with bounce from Monthly Pivot S1 and close above the 23.6 fib on Weekly. Also price has made a clear breakout from the downward Weekly channel. This week's close will determine where we are headed next week.
  • #51,334
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:22pm Jan 29, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting acidguy
you really sure we are going to hit 2.0100 again in short term?

big banks and institutions are net short cable.
what do you think about today uk data. not good at all....

big rate cuts coming from there, thats why started the fall of cable in the first place.
big rate cuts ?? i dont think so ,our housing market has been overheating big time,only just started to fall back,a tiny bit,uk inflation only just got back to banks target,BOE inbetween a rock and hard place,dont count on big drops in our intrest rates
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,335
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:33pm Jan 29, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting forexnovice
Fundamentally, little has changed for GU.

Technically last week was a bullish bar with bounce from Monthly Pivot S1 and close above the 23.6 fib on Weekly. Also price has made a clear breakout from the downward Weekly channel. This week's close will determine where we are headed next week.
100 % agree and on the 50 % fib thing previous
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,336
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:11pm Jan 29, 2008 3:11pm
Acidguy i know you are a fundermentalist trader,buy surly you need a bit of technical ,check out your 4hr ,been trending up very nicely since 22 Jan , getting close to that rising tl now though ,im not saying i dont like your posts ,find your view intresting although i dont agree most of the time
I would agree the market could fall any min right down to where you say but would like more of a reason to trade that than say a speech,or a future news event ,takes way to much time to follow anyway and you have more chance of being wrong without a bit of tech,you can not b sure price will not carry on up sounds a bit risky to me
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,337
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:59pm Jan 29, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Bones
Acidguy i know you are a fundermentalist trader,buy surly you need a bit of technical ,check out your 4hr ,been trending up very nicely since 22 Jan , getting close to that rising tl now though ,im not saying i dont like your posts ,find your view intresting although i dont agree most of the time
I would agree the market could fall any min right down to where you say but would like more of a reason to trade that than say a speech,or a future news event ,takes way to much time to follow anyway and you have more chance of being wrong without a bit of tech,you can not b sure price will not carry on up sounds a bit risky to me
LOL, maybe you haven't spoken to a lot of fundi traders. His point is fundamentals precede technicals. I.e. technicals are just a lagging visual indicator of what is happening fundamentally.
  • #51,338
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:07pm Jan 29, 2008 4:07pm
what about price is that lagging ?Acidguy was calling short all day yesturday when it was clearly going up,couldnt have been smoother,until that retrace that is,lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,339
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:19pm Jan 29, 2008 4:19pm
besides what im saying is i dont even agree with his fundamental analysis ,but thats great ,i am looking to learn somthing new everyday...if hes right
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,340
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:22pm Jan 29, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting Bones
Acidguy i know you are a fundermentalist trader,buy surly you need a bit of technical ,check out your 4hr ,been trending up very nicely since 22 Jan , getting close to that rising tl now though ,im not saying i dont like your posts ,find your view intresting although i dont agree most of the time
I would agree the market could fall any min right down to where you say but would like more of a reason to trade that than say a speech,or a future news event ,takes way to much time to follow anyway and you have more chance of being wrong without a bit of tech,you can not b sure price will not carry on up sounds a bit risky to me
I am not overly techy - I only go with broad channels etc and play a longer game with a lot of fun and mentals mixed in..

If you techies are saying long - my fundies are saying long also

If the US stimulus package works at all, it's effects will be a long way off and nobody is going to move until the results start to show

I also think cable might wobble- drop to 1.9750 ish before it moves up to 2..

The danger for traditionalist/historians is that this time the recession might be different because the world is different..

It's indicative I feel that the UK is as strong as it is (ex-housing) and interest differentials are too tempting-especially with the huge real trade with euro zone which should keep the uk afloat some...

The USD is a guy in intensive care and the GBP is in casualty department with a sprained ankle - If I am going to sell life insurance to one of them it will be the guy sitting up with the coffee and doughnut

Employment is the ONLY statistic I am interested in right now...
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