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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #51,301
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:32am Jan 29, 2008 9:32am
Quoting tomaz55
lyy for you to post something like this you have to be long right? if you'd followed my trade perhaps you woulnt be saying this?
lol, if i followed your trade.. how long have you been posting in this forum? 14 posts, i have no idea if u have consistent results, u entered becoz of another person's analysis, u gave no analysis technical nor fundamental, you just said "short @ 9910" and you expect people to follow your trade?

i dun have any trades going on right now, looking for further analysis on GU and the market's reaction to the previous news.
  • #51,302
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:38am Jan 29, 2008 9:38am
Quoting lyy.sg
lol, if i followed your trade.. how long have you been posting in this forum? 14 posts, i have no idea if u have consistent results, u entered becoz of another person's analysis, u gave no analysis technical nor fundamental, you just said "short @ 9910" and you expect people to follow your trade?

i dun have any trades going on right now, looking for further analysis on GU and the market's reaction to the previous news.
'u entered becoz of another person's analysis' - who's that person?

'you expect people to follow your trade?' - lol couldnt give a damn if the whole world is long, i shorted anyway! cant you see by the forum many people are talking about gu reaching 2.000+?

better explain yourself better..
  • #51,303
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:39am Jan 29, 2008 9:39am
19865 cable looks great down now!
  • #51,304
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:41am Jan 29, 2008 9:41am
9:15am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifADP Nonfarm Employment Change
40K40K
9:30am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifGDP Annualized q/q (p)
1.2%4.9%
9:30am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifGDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p)
2.6%1.0%
3:15pm USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifInterest Rate Statement
3.00%3.50%

Does anyone think any of the above is going to be good for the USD? I think GBP is going to go through the roof tomorrow? Opinions!
  • #51,305
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:43am Jan 29, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Runway Trade
9:15am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifADP Nonfarm Employment Change
40K40K
9:30am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifGDP Annualized q/q (p)
1.2%4.9%
9:30am USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifGDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p)
2.6%1.0%
3:15pm USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifInterest Rate Statement
3.00%3.50%

Does anyone think any of the above is going to be good for the USD? I think GBP is going to go through the roof tomorrow? Opinions!
probably for tomorrow but still not wednesday :.

2x gu shorts.
x1.9900 1 lot tp. 1.9830.
x1.9858 0.2 lots tp. 1.9750 (long term trade)
  • #51,306
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:45am Jan 29, 2008 9:45am
Quoting acidguy
probably for tomorrow but still not wednesday :.

2x gu shorts.
x1.9900 1 lot tp. 1.9830.
x1.9858 0.2 lots tp. 1.9750 (long term trade)
aciduy did u catch that short at 9925 or did u wait for the 9950?
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  • #51,307
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:49am Jan 29, 2008 9:49am
Quoting quickh23a
aciduy did u catch that short at 9925 or did u wait for the 9950?
not 1.9950 cause did not reach, was a long term one.

but when was entering metatrader earlier, just saw 1.9910 but put it 1.9900 when was breaking.

(euro is holding up most pairs up against usd, but there is signs of a selloff, i am tired of seeing the same scenario repeat, times after time... usd rally is probable in a few hours before fomc tomorrow decition, good usa data but euro try to rally and struggles then collapses.)
  • #51,308
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:52am Jan 29, 2008 9:52am
Quoting acidguy
not 1.9950 cause did not reach, was a long term one.

but when was entering metatrader earlier, just saw 1.9910 but put it 1.9900 when was breaking.
i was waiting for that fib but the 4hr BB's were closing on price so i just pulled thetrigger, i love it when 4hr BB act like that its a sure trade hopefully stocks will go down by the end of the day and will help the gbp break the 200 4hr back down
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  • #51,309
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:55am Jan 29, 2008 9:55am
bytheway the fed started he meeting this morning and might deliver the decision BEFORE STOCK MARLET CLOSE to help market sentiment, be carefull of any yen positions until we know wats going on!!!!!
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  • #51,310
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:02am Jan 29, 2008 10:02am
alright guys, im not perfect or anything, but ill share with you what i think is going to happen on my chart. im on a selling frenzy for a target at 9640

It hit my 2nd line of resistance, and it decided to move downwards if a pass at 9805, you know its a sweet short until the 96 for the next couple of days. thats my input. any suggestiosn?
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And your mouth dropped
  • #51,311
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:03am Jan 29, 2008 10:03am
Quoting quickh23a
bytheway the fed started he meeting this morning and might deliver the decision BEFORE STOCK MARLET CLOSE to help market sentiment, be carefull of any yen positions until we know wats going on!!!!!
wow, thanks.

a friend told me by msn, but thinking he was something lunatic.
closed all the trades.

1.9958 one in negative but 1.9900 one makes the party
  • #51,312
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:16am Jan 29, 2008 10:16am
ok now my US money market account is paying 3.5% for 50k and 2.47% for less than that...

My Uk sterling accounts are still paying double that

UK in growth- US in recession

hum - now where will the world put its money ?

any ideas ?
  • #51,313
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:21am Jan 29, 2008 10:21am
Quoting allserene
ok now my US money market account is paying 3.5% for 50k and 2.47% for less than that...

My Uk sterling accounts are still paying double that

UK in growth- US in recession

hum - now where will the world put its money ?

any ideas ?
in the usd, most of gloom and doom has been priced there, still almost nothing in gbp. so.... it should drop and drop. same than euro in some months.

remember the big devaluation of the usd has been in times of prosperity as has been used as a funding currency.
when americans start to repatriate their money. all currencies in the world should go really down against usd.
  • #51,314
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:35am Jan 29, 2008 10:35am
Quoting acidguy
in the usd, most of gloom and doom has been priced there, still almost nothing in gbp. so.... it should drop and drop. same than euro in some months.

remember the big devaluation of the usd has been in times of prosperity as has been used as a funding currency.
when americans start to repatriate their money. all currencies in the world should go really down against usd.
But traditionally, when the US goes into recession, so does everyone else - so yes the funds flow back the USD - I agree

But this time it looks different because the world is more developed - the emperor has less clothes than before (relatively) - perhaps this time the funds will flow out and look for better returns...

The euro was not around 10 years ago and china wasnt much either..

Things change and when the conventional wisdom fails is a time of big losses or big opportunities

If Hillary looks strong after today it will mean an end to this war and all McCains planned wars and that would make a big difference psycholgically at least..

hum - it will be interesting...
  • #51,315
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:37am Jan 29, 2008 10:37am
Quoting allserene
But traditionally, when the US goes into recession, so does everyone else - so yes the funds flow back the USD - I agree

But this time it looks different because the world is more developed - the emperor has less clothes than before (relatively) - perhaps this time the funds will flow out and look for better returns...

The euro was not around 10 years ago and china wasnt much either..

Things change and when the conventional wisdom fails is a time of big losses or big opportunities

If Hillary looks strong after today it will mean an end to this war and all McCains planned wars and that would make a big difference psycholgically at least..

hum - it will be interesting...
europeans are not big investors
thats a kind of internal merchantilism at the old way.

and about what you say, hillary, obama or ron paul has better plans in economical terms than bush.

the most radicals and logical ron paul ones, but the others at the general mediocre way, but still help.
if they wirthdraw the troops, also usd positive, so....

not much doom or gloom left, except if ben keep cutting rates like crazy.
if he tomorrow dont open the discount window, shorting big, euro and pound. us good data is putting stops to euro and gbp.
  • #51,316
  • Edited 11:21am Jan 29, 2008 10:55am | Edited 11:21am
Depends on how much the rate is cut, if it is small say...25BP there won't be a major drop GBP because people were expecting much more - if it is 50 or higher we could see huge drops...

* I agree that Ron Paul could really help the USD with his economic policys...... it's to bad that the American public will not elect him and just elect another warmonger..
  • #51,317
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:00am Jan 29, 2008 11:00am
Quoting acidguy
europeans are not big investors
thats a kind of internal merchantilism at the old way.

and about what you say, hillary, obama or ron paul has better plans in economical terms than bush.

the most radicals and logical ron paul ones, but the others at the general mediocre way, but still help.
if they wirthdraw the troops, also usd positive, so....

not much doom or gloom left, except if ben keep cutting rates like crazy.
if he tomorrow dont open the discount window, shorting big, euro and pound. us good data is putting stops to euro and gbp.
yes I am not too convinced by capital goods flows as a few aeroplanes can really swing that back and forth...

only thing that tips me towards GBP on this pair is US employment which is not good...

My wife usually gets a job in a week or two and the agencies are falling over themselves to bid up the golden hellos to tempt her

This time it's 3 months unemployed and the job market is DEAD

I saw the UK housing slump before the stats showed it and now I see the US employment slump before the stats REALLY kick in...both perspectives from being on the ground in the streets..

I will long cable if it slips towards 1.97 - as a longish trade...
  • #51,318
  • Edited 12:47pm Jan 29, 2008 11:08am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting allserene
yes I am not too convinced by capital goods flows as a few aeroplanes can really swing that back and forth...

only thing that tips me towards GBP on this pair is US employment which is not good...

My wife usually gets a job in a week or two and the agencies are falling over themselves to bid up the golden hellos to tempt her

This time it's 3 months unemployed and the job market is DEAD

I saw the UK housing slump before the stats showed it and now I see the US employment slump before the stats REALLY kick in...both perspectives from being on the ground in the streets..

I will long cable if it slips towards 1.97 - as a longish trade...
lets see, analysts are expecting a jump in non farm payroll payments.

but its somehow confusing. that means probably for today if many want to avoid getting burned keep away from gu and eu.

also tomorrow reports. are even somehow hard to trade, we have escalated decitions coming out.
why not the realease them at the same time

the most important thing is non farm payroll in my humble opinion. as markets already pricing somehow a 50bp cut.

but if they dont cut rates at and nfp are good, in eu target at least 1.4350 on the next couple of days, and pound is not another history.
target at least 1.91.

but if that not happens, we could even see new numbers in eu numbers
and gu to the sky, 2.0400???.
  • #51,319
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:31pm Jan 29, 2008 12:31pm
man gbp being such a pig, she really doesnt wanna roll in the mud right now ay? cmon baby... tank.. im tired of paying intrest lol
And your mouth dropped
  • #51,320
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:32pm Jan 29, 2008 12:32pm
GBP/USD 30mins showing a head and shoulders, possible USD gain in the next 4 hours?
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