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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #51,081
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:06am Jan 25, 2008 11:06am
Quoting allserene
97.80 is where I would have my stop if i had one - it is a totally logical place to have it - that's why the evil doers who wag this market will whizz down to the levels where we set our stops and ding em - and then go back up laughing their mean socks off

I tend to ride bareback nowadays - especially where there is no scheduled big news around...

As long as my positions are not too big then i reckon i can get away with it...

After all, if it fell to 97.20 we would buy wouldnt we ?
what if this thing tanks 250 pips??
  • #51,082
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:09am Jan 25, 2008 11:09am
I think most traders use stops as protect profits, or limit risk,but i think psychologically more meaningfull if one uses as a get out of this trade my analysis was wrong approach, proper entry and reward risk, dont think most stops would be in markets range. 20 PIP sl's are only good if u caught the bottom/top or the daily trend, market noise will kill most trades if stops are in range. IMO
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #51,083
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:12am Jan 25, 2008 11:12am
As its look like impossible to g/u to go back to 212 you can take short now and be sure to have enough margin to cover 212!some consolidation target 201 or 203...but it will need a bull market to make g/u long favored and forget bull market...maybe next week should be bit bullish due to empty data but soon as bush gonna talk later this month...and just before NFP be ready to short!I can't tell you to not buy the dip...but for sure dont buy the top!Every daily 38/50 fib retrace on g/u and g/j are good short entry for me!
  • #51,084
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:20am Jan 25, 2008 11:20am
Quoting forexguru
-----------

now you know why did not put stop loss in this trade.. there are idiot guys with billions in hand ready to eat your stop loss, do not use them if you do not have to

actually i realised this..im more successfull when theres no stop loss...and when i do have it in place i get it hit and then it moves in the direction i wanted and end up place another order to do the same thing, so now i just have it miles away anyway...easier so long as the direction is right..
  • #51,085
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:46am Jan 25, 2008 11:46am
Quoting sf2000
As its look like impossible to g/u to go back to 212 you can take short now and be sure to have enough margin to cover 212!some consolidation target 201 or 203...but it will need a bull market to make g/u long favored and forget bull market...maybe next week should be bit bullish due to empty data but soon as bush gonna talk later this month...and just before NFP be ready to short!I can't tell you to not buy the dip...but for sure dont buy the top!Every daily 38/50 fib retrace on g/u and g/j are good short entry for me!
dont think cable will shoot up so soon, just went short at 9800 with 100 pip tgt and 50 pip stop
  • #51,086
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:49am Jan 25, 2008 11:49am
Quoting tomaz55
dont think cable will shoot up so soon, just went short at 9800 with 100 pip tgt and 50 pip stop
its because it friday...
  • #51,087
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:52am Jan 25, 2008 11:52am
Quoting tomaz55
what if this thing tanks 250 pips??
I would look at why - if it was some statistic that came out at 81.5 instead of the expected 81.9 - I would consider that the market had over reacted and I would hang in.. That happens all the time - piffling little stats on a month on month and the market throws a dicky fit !

If something big convinced me that the market had turned justifiably and was headed away from my positions I would take the loss.

I would feel disappointed but not cheated - when your stop loss is dinged consistently 100% of the time and right to within 2 pips before it zooms back - thats when I used to get angry and paranoid. Rather be disappointed than angry

All my big losses were down to s/l's in the past...

As long as you keep your eyes on the big news items and position for them - pay the in/out spread as insurance if you are not at the screen - but you can never relax as in 'emergency rate cuts'
  • #51,088
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:03pm Jan 25, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting Ash
Cable is consolidating for a breakout on the daily Chart. Upside??? Downside??? Only time will tell.
Still Consolidating.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #51,089
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:05pm Jan 25, 2008 12:05pm
nice stocks keep falling so cable go down to the hilldrums.
cable and euro are being put up by carry traders. why dont they go to hell
so currencies reflect real fundamentals and quit distorting the market.
  • #51,090
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:14pm Jan 25, 2008 12:14pm
economic of the world still be go down trend...

Keep your money trade next weeks
  • #51,091
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:15pm Jan 25, 2008 12:15pm
Since we have been talking about butterflys earlier today,I realise the are a bearish pattern but how would you trade it ( like can you measure hieght and when base is broken project target )and is the attached one on my 30 min screen?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: butterfly.gif Size: 19 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,092
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:21pm Jan 25, 2008 12:21pm
yeah, but beware cause uruku yujuku fukumuku said they basically are against currently yen movements and they even plan to cut rates which put more pressure on euro and pound to go up.

that basically is like the steam for carry mosquito flyers.
so beware.
  • #51,093
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:55pm Jan 25, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting acidguy
nice stocks keep falling so cable go down to the hilldrums.
cable and euro are being put up by carry traders. why dont they go to hell
so currencies reflect real fundamentals and quit distorting the market.
carry traders are a fundamental driven group - it will get worse i reckon because there are no returns on offer in the US and the money will chase the returns - can't get more fundamental than that -

When money is chasing no returns it's unfundamental (new word) - so come on 2.04 !

in the meantime it will be fun+mental and a white knuckle ride
  • #51,094
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:58pm Jan 25, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting Bones
Since we have been talking about butterflys earlier today,I realise the are a bearish pattern but how would you trade it ( like can you measure hieght and when base is broken project target )and is the attached one on my 30 min screen?
Im not sure if the pattern is really that it would have to conform to retracements of 61.8 ratio and if it does then, that will mean u be the short till pullback 61.8 ....u would trade short till that fib is reached...but i doubt it is that, its kinda rare

if my memory serves my right...
Attached Image
  • #51,095
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:08pm Jan 25, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting allserene
carry traders are a fundamental driven group - it will get worse i reckon because there are no returns on offer in the US and the money will chase the returns - can't get more fundamental than that -

When money is chasing no returns it's unfundamental (new word) - so come on 2.04 !

in the meantime it will be fun+mental and a white knuckle ride
good luck with your forecast


25/01/2008
• British Pound: Trades off the 198.00 level after bank calls for 125bp of easing in 2008
  • #51,096
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:29pm Jan 25, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
Im not sure if the pattern is really that it would have to conform to retracements of 61.8 ratio and if it does then, that will mean u be the short till pullback 61.8 ....u would trade short till that fib is reached...but i doubt it is that, its kinda rare

if my memory serves my right...
thanks mate ,that earlier post just got me thinking,not a pattern trader but do find it intresting.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #51,097
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:40pm Jan 25, 2008 1:40pm
today has been a ridiculous trading day, we hardly moved ...lol
  • #51,098
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:45pm Jan 25, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting Bones
thanks mate ,that earlier post just got me thinking,not a pattern trader but do find it intresting.
always worth knowing especially how to draw the lines and stuff...

yur wellcome
  • #51,099
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:09pm Jan 25, 2008 5:09pm
nice weekend for all
  • #51,100
  • Jan 26, 2008 1:00am Jan 26, 2008 1:00am
Triple top on the 1H, does that mean it should go up or down?
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