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  • #801
  • Dec 29, 2007 12:19am Dec 29, 2007 12:19am
Quoting sizzler

GBP/JPY big surprise eh? you really didn't need a fib to portent that move BUT in the context of the fib it wasn't confirmed. I see about 4 things that told me that was going to happen though. It would be 5 but my damn crystal ball broke... stupid mystical craftsmanship .Oldworld quality my a$$..

I scaled out to the larger tf's and anyone care to comment on what they see? I swear to toast no one say dur I see a head and shoulders dur...

Sizz.
Sizz,

re: GBP/JPY,
1) on the weekly fib from last swing hi (10/28) to low (11/18) last 5 weeks penetrated but couldn't close over the 38 fib.
2) last week was a bearish bar
3) pin bar on daily 12/27??
4) and dare i say it.........the 228.50-60ish area looks like a strong resistance area in the upper neckline
5) called miss cleo for confirmation...
trading naked.......
  • #802
  • Dec 29, 2007 12:38am Dec 29, 2007 12:38am
Quoting sizzler
I had a nice long blathering ,rambling Sizz special and my computer quit.. ( ok ok I fired it but I am letting it leave with dignity plus now no unemployment Phew! )

this is semi condensed and leaves out a few stories and some heelarious jokes and witty observations and some freestyle hip hop.


Lowell

Your fib was wrong(from how I would draw it) I looked at the and our tp1 is 1.6970-2. Am I wrong? if so great if not grand. If this is what you came up with after redrawing then yes I concur Dr Lowell. STAT. This slave cycle will complete for so it was written. If not I just got a big hole in my studies.

PASR This pair was screaming "buy me buy me" since yesterday on 4h between 8 and 16 hour depending on your experiance level. 1.6840 was first tp and I see more up which would lead me to the 1.6970 level. Look at D1 more up! more up now!!!

Interesting to point based on past fib I say growl growl we are bears but by doing a quick vhands PASR trade with it I am Bullish up to basically where we are at right now maybe 30 points higher and then I have no opinions until the market gives me one. I would probably be out right now. OK I lied that wasn't that interesting. Good luck getting THAT time back mwaahahha!


GBP/JPY big surprise eh? you really didn't need a fib to portent that move BUT in the context of the fib it wasn't confirmed. I see about 4 things that told me that was going to happen though. It would be 5 but my damn crystal ball broke... stupid mystical craftsmanship .Oldworld quality my a$$..

I scaled out to the larger tf's and anyone care to comment on what they see? I swear to toast no one say dur I see a head and shoulders dur...


what one of these monsters are we going to slice and dice? someone throw a pair out there. let get rolling.

I refuse to chart nzd/cad for personal reasons though so count me out on that one if we pick it. I will, however, do a kroner chart

I am also going to mark my charts up with pasr to show "co-inky-dinks"

Bobokus,

operating off the guiding principle that fibs show 100% accurate destination of price it wouldn't matter so much crosses would it? 5-10 pips is noise. IMO.

I take it you don't subscribe to this school of thought and use fibs like a guide from your entries in this thread, THAT, coupled with an assumed prior relationship with Skunny, your own thread on fibs, Skunny not being reluctant about throwing the concept right out there lead me to ask these questions:

1.) DO you subscribe( redundant but formal) to the assertion governing this thread( as I understand it) that the fib will predict the price move to a t 100% of the time if drawn properly AND there is a repeatable formula to draw said fib before action happens?

2.) If not why, as someone who is knowledgable enough to author a thread on fibs and trade mainly(solely?) off of them surely this method is this pinnacle of fibbery as it 100% accurately predicts price? Surely you have looked into this at the very latest in the begining of this thread no?

.3) if so, again why no mention( i have seen) of it?


word em up!
Sizz.
Trading crosses your just not going to get them to match up to fibs as accurately as you will the majors, there are going to be instances where the cross pairs will match up to fibs but the accuracy just isnt going to be there...been there done that. Me, I trade from the break of the fib levels 38.2,50 and 61.8 to the extentions and the cross pairs would kill me because they will not honor the fib levels properly.
As far as using fibs as a guide..most certainly my entire strategy is fib based.Keep in mind Fibonacci and the fib tool is nothing more than a gauge to measure price movement, its only an aid like any other tool or instrument, price action and understanding the pair you trade must be mastered first, then and only then will they begin to make even more sense as will all the other tools and indicators.Placing fibs on the chart properly is somewhat of an artform that will come as one developes thier skills as a trader.

In my opinion and experience, no fibs are not going to hit 100% of the time to the pip, no matter how you draw them on any pair. At best you will see 70%+ on the majors ,in a good trending move the percentage is higher but not much, the beginning and ending of a trending move there is always the failures and reverses.There are different measures that can be taken too offset this though. However to the second part yes there are repeatable patterns...you can even project fibs out into open space if you have a good idea where the next bounces and rejections will occur, but that is a coarse all to itself. The patterns are very predictable.

And yes Ive been here since the beginning of the thread, I encouraged(pushed) Skunny into starting a thread...he is very good at portraying what he wants to teach. Much better than I do, I can be a little confusing to people and somewhat hard to follow(just look through my thread).He on the other hand is very good at teaching and honestly just wants to help new traders and save them the expensive trials of becomming successful in this business of FX trading. Its just not my place to interfere in what he is trying to accomplish with his thread. I was told I could help out in the thread when he couldnt be available,but if I do I will most likely reveal too much too fast and make things confusing.I will still try and help, but he has to keep the reins pulled tight on me.
  • #803
  • Dec 29, 2007 1:07am Dec 29, 2007 1:07am
Quoting sizzler
Ayn rand AND Pi?

you aren't a Coffee house,clove smoking philosopher/english professor who is also a sarcastic atheist are you?? j/k
Well.... I quit smoking four years ago, I do drink a lot of coffee but I'm not an english professor.

No comment on the rest, lol!


Yes, the clips are from the movie pi. π

  • #804
  • Dec 29, 2007 8:15am Dec 29, 2007 8:15am
Bo, I completely understand what you're saying about the fibs working well on the majors, but not as well on the crosses. How do you find them on AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD since they are a lot more commodity driven?
  • #805
  • Dec 29, 2007 8:25am Dec 29, 2007 8:25am
Quoting bronxterp
Bo, I completely understand what you're saying about the fibs working well on the majors, but not as well on the crosses. How do you find them on AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD since they are a lot more commodity driven?
Honestly I dont follow those pairs enough to give you a good answer.I know of traders that do however and I know they have to follow prescious metals with the Aussy and they follow Oil with the Cad.
  • #806
  • Dec 29, 2007 8:49am Dec 29, 2007 8:49am
Quoting Gmoney
Sizz,

Great idea I'm in http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif.

Do it.

Gmoney
I agree, and, MAYBE it should go in the trading room?
  • #807
  • Dec 29, 2007 2:10pm Dec 29, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting Bobokus
Trading crosses your just not going to get them to match up to fibs as accurately as you will the majors, there are going to be instances where the cross pairs will match up to fibs but the accuracy just isnt going to be there...been there done that. Me, I trade from the break of the fib levels 38.2,50 and 61.8 to the extentions and the cross pairs would kill me because they will not honor the fib levels properly.
As far as using fibs as a guide..most certainly my entire strategy is fib based.Keep in mind Fibonacci and the fib tool is nothing more than a gauge to measure price movement, its only an aid like any other tool or instrument, price action and understanding the pair you trade must be mastered first, then and only then will they begin to make even more sense as will all the other tools and indicators.Placing fibs on the chart properly is somewhat of an artform that will come as one developes thier skills as a trader.

In my opinion and experience, no fibs are not going to hit 100% of the time to the pip, no matter how you draw them on any pair. At best you will see 70%+ on the majors ,in a good trending move the percentage is higher but not much, the beginning and ending of a trending move there is always the failures and reverses.There are different measures that can be taken too offset this though. However to the second part yes there are repeatable patterns...you can even project fibs out into open space if you have a good idea where the next bounces and rejections will occur, but that is a coarse all to itself. The patterns are very predictable.

And yes Ive been here since the beginning of the thread, I encouraged(pushed) Skunny into starting a thread...he is very good at portraying what he wants to teach. Much better than I do, I can be a little confusing to people and somewhat hard to follow(just look through my thread).He on the other hand is very good at teaching and honestly just wants to help new traders and save them the expensive trials of becomming successful in this business of FX trading. Its just not my place to interfere in what he is trying to accomplish with his thread. I was told I could help out in the thread when he couldnt be available,but if I do I will most likely reveal too much too fast and make things confusing.I will still try and help, but he has to keep the reins pulled tight on me.
Thanks for the great response Bo. I've seen over and over again the patterns but I just can always count on what I'm seeing. Which yardstick will it follow and when, which pattern will it follow and when and for what reason. I've been able to at times figure out where price will pull back or how far it will pull back, but perhaps it's been nothing more than pure luck. I believe I'm on to something and so I wanted to share so perhaps an answer might be found. Can you let me know Bo if I'm on the right track or if I shouldn't waste my time? This is only one of many charts I've looked at and found patterns, perhaps many of you have found the same.

This one is loaded with patterns and I just picked it out at random. One thing in writing this I just noticed that I hadn't figured out before but I will save it for last. First off, this swing, or whatever you want to call it, turns out to be quite balanced, alot more so than some I've noticed. Measurements A-B & C-D are exact distance apart. The easiest way to measure, for me anyway, has been to pull a fib of the distance then highlight so you can move it around. E-F is also the same exact distance as the others but there wasn't quite the same bounce but you can see it is an area of high resistance, just look at how the 5-7 candles reacted around it. Now, if you take the distance between D-E and extended support line F by that amount, then your right at the tip of the candle at G. And by balanced I mean that this is an example of 2 cycles if we want to call them that, stacked onto of each other. If you fib A-B, then D would be the 162 ext., mark the spot with a horizontal line and move the fib to 0.0 or 100 and you'll see that the 162 ext ends the entire swing at the last candle which I did not mark, I mean matches it to a tee.

The yardstick measurement is taken when price seems to be about to trend, it pulls back and then starts to resume it's direction. So once it, in this case, drops below the resistance at B the natural question is if it continues, when will it hit resistance and pull back next and how far? Well the obvious spots of resistance are at 138 and 162, but how far will it pull back? If you also knew the maximum spot it would retrace to, then that would be the perfect spot to enter wouldn't it? Well I'm not sure if it's even possible but I think it is but at what times and under what conditions can you could count on it happening would be the question. But that's what I've been hoping to find out. And maybe this might spark an idea in someone else that might get things figured out?

Now this seems interesting but I've only been able to check it out on just a few established trends, 2 to be exact, this chart and a trend further back on this chart and it seems promising. If you fib A-C and mark a line at 138 level, draw another fib from A to that 138 mark, now with the larger new fib, move and overlay the 0.0 or 100 mark onto the 138 level of the smaller fib, look to where the 138 lands of the bigger fib and wha la, it shows where the price pulls back to. Luck? How obtain does it happen? Don't know. It's worked a few times, try it for yourselves.

Let me know what you think Bo.
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PipHunter
  • #808
  • Dec 29, 2007 2:29pm Dec 29, 2007 2:29pm
While i have studied and tried to trade Fibs at times, i somehow have some mental block about how to successfully trade them. THose of you who do trade fibs, could you share how you get in? Do you wait for it to hit a simple retracement percentage and then get in? Do you project it in advance and have a limit order waiting or do u look at PA at each of the levels and get it if you think the retracement is done?

Thanks all.

Jimno
  • #809
  • Dec 29, 2007 6:19pm Dec 29, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
Thanks for the great response Bo. I've seen over and over again the patterns but I just can always count on what I'm seeing. Which yardstick will it follow and when, which pattern will it follow and when and for what reason. I've been able to at times figure out where price will pull back or how far it will pull back, but perhaps it's been nothing more than pure luck. I believe I'm on to something and so I wanted to share so perhaps an answer might be found. Can you let me know Bo if I'm on the right track or if I shouldn't waste my time? This is only one of many charts I've looked at and found patterns, perhaps many of you have found the same.

This one is loaded with patterns and I just picked it out at random. One thing in writing this I just noticed that I hadn't figured out before but I will save it for last. First off, this swing, or whatever you want to call it, turns out to be quite balanced, alot more so than some I've noticed. Measurements A-B & C-D are exact distance apart. The easiest way to measure, for me anyway, has been to pull a fib of the distance then highlight so you can move it around. E-F is also the same exact distance as the others but there wasn't quite the same bounce but you can see it is an area of high resistance, just look at how the 5-7 candles reacted around it. Now, if you take the distance between D-E and extended support line F by that amount, then your right at the tip of the candle at G. And by balanced I mean that this is an example of 2 cycles if we want to call them that, stacked onto of each other. If you fib A-B, then D would be the 162 ext., mark the spot with a horizontal line and move the fib to 0.0 or 100 and you'll see that the 162 ext ends the entire swing at the last candle which I did not mark, I mean matches it to a tee.

The yardstick measurement is taken when price seems to be about to trend, it pulls back and then starts to resume it's direction. So once it, in this case, drops below the resistance at B the natural question is if it continues, when will it hit resistance and pull back next and how far? Well the obvious spots of resistance are at 138 and 162, but how far will it pull back? If you also knew the maximum spot it would retrace to, then that would be the perfect spot to enter wouldn't it? Well I'm not sure if it's even possible but I think it is but at what times and under what conditions can you could count on it happening would be the question. But that's what I've been hoping to find out. And maybe this might spark an idea in someone else that might get things figured out?

Now this seems interesting but I've only been able to check it out on just a few established trends, 2 to be exact, this chart and a trend further back on this chart and it seems promising. If you fib A-C and mark a line at 138 level, draw another fib from A to that 138 mark, now with the larger new fib, move and overlay the 0.0 or 100 mark onto the 138 level of the smaller fib, look to where the 138 lands of the bigger fib and wha la, it shows where the price pulls back to. Luck? How obtain does it happen? Don't know. It's worked a few times, try it for yourselves.

Let me know what you think Bo.
Now this is what Skunny's thread is all about, its got you thinking!, And you are discovering some things all on your own which you will remember much better than if someone tells you what to do.
Try what you are doing with one of the major pairs, I can tell you that you are headed in the right direction.
  • #810
  • Dec 29, 2007 6:43pm Dec 29, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting Bobokus
Now this is what Skunny's thread is all about, its got you thinking!, And you are discovering some things all on your own which you will remember much better than if someone tells you what to do.
Try what you are doing with one of the major pairs, I can tell you that you are headed in the right direction.
Sweeeet! That music to my ears, thought I was going crazy and that I nerver should have gone out on this limb by posting my thoughts. I've been trying to go through your thread aswell, there just isn't enough time a day. Thank goodness for the holidays and having a lot of time to try and work through all of this.
PipHunter
  • #811
  • Dec 29, 2007 10:17pm Dec 29, 2007 10:17pm
Hey Traders,
I have read with almost non stop interest the posts in this thread since finding it yesterday (D I Z Z Z Y ). I do not post very often at all but maybe that will change since I am beginning to get more involved with reading good threads like this one at FF. Thanks Skunny for this informative thread. I will, however, have to admit that even though I have studied for hundreds of hours, read page after page trying to learn all that I can about this illusive market, traveled to seminars, etc....... for over 2 years now, I still seem to be coming up short in my knowledge of "price" compared to many of you here. Many of the posts are simply over my head when it comes to mathmatical numbers although I am trying to digest it. I am comfortable with my fibs and swings but interpretation of what happens next is another story .I have a simple question that may get me headed in the right direction. Am I being correct in interpreting from various posts here that if price penetrates a r/s area and makes a higher high or lower low, even though it may be a "head fake" at the time, it should go to the 138 ext? Ok, that leads to another question... if it retraces 100% of the move that made that penetration, does that invalidate that it will go to the 138 ext? Just trying to get some absolutes here in a market where absolutes are hard to come by
  • #812
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:23am Dec 30, 2007 3:23am
i thought seriously hard about what you were saying about indicators and such on this thread...and i have come to a definite conclusion....




They really ARE very pretty!
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  • #813
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:50am Dec 30, 2007 3:50am
now...on a more serious note all.... i dont get it...... i see that price hits fibs...ok great....but which ones in which order is still a big ole mystery... I also see that there are cycles within cycles and bigger and smaller s/rs that make up those cycles that are forming as we speak according to price action...... BUT>>>>vhands doesnt want to give us the magic fairy dust and golden geese just yet....and boy is it frustrating...

cant we please please have more hints dear skunnyman.... pal, genius, demigod (was that one too much) how much arse kissing must we do????

OK POP QUIZ.......... see the latest gdp/jpy chart below..... query: where is this pair going next (next target) and why? AND how long will it take to get there? (maybe its too ez and we are making it more complicated than it need be? I dont know... what i do know is we need o uncle skunny to pop in with more exercises and hints and maybe even a little more than hints for idiots like me

so let us all here in the skunnycult gather together and praise o mighty master of the forexuniverse and give him thanks and praise and petition with open hearts and karmic power for ,..... ah forget it..... everyone post and beg skunny for MORE just copy and paste >>> "please sir may I have some more"


NOW>>>>>>

who has answers to the quiz? "anyone? anyone? Buehler? Buehler?"
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  • #814
  • Edited 7:36am Dec 30, 2007 6:33am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting dagoods
OK POP QUIZ.......... see the latest gdp/jpy chart below..... query: where is this pair going next (next target) and why?

NOW>>>>>>

who has answers to the quiz? "anyone? anyone? Buehler? Buehler?"
I feel like I'm in the dark as much as anyone, and the more I play with these, the less I believe regarding prediction. They look useful for setting targets, when integrated with what I already do. Sometimes I think I just need lines on the chart to make me feel good about what I'm doing.

I started Bo's thread last night, and made it to about the 4th or 5th applied fib before closing the thread. Once you get 30 or 40 lines on a chart, there's too much discretion at that point to call it a system, the lines become less and less meaningful. Maybe I should have persevered through the 75 pages, but I feel my time would be better spent hitting the charts myself and seeing what I can see, for myself.

So, with all the above in mind, I'll take my best guess.

Dagoods, I am sure you need to back out farther, get more time on your chart. I do see your yellow fibs from earlier, so you're probably already doing that.

I've fibbed a major downmove, and a minor downmove. Price has stayed in range of both, without breaking 0 or 100 in either.

Price penetrated, but did not close across the 76 retracement of the smaller move. Fib basics say that a close across the 76 retracement would mean a reversal of the move/trend that was fibbed. Instead, it bounced, and we have a bearish engulfing candle, so if I had to trade it, I'd say price will move back down to the major support at 221.25. That orange line is support from 11/23 and 3/5/07. Also be sure to note the test on 8/16 and 8/17, as well as the heavy consolidation around this level during 9/2006.

There's also a head and shoulders here on the daily chart, and price will usually test support more than once, IMO, so an aggressive trader might be looking for a short entry point right now, or wait for a neckline break.

If price breaks (close below, or next entire closed candle body below, depending on your style) this support at 221.25, then the 138 at 213.60 would be a fair target, but I would probably shoot for the more conservative target, the 162 at 214.50. These lines are not shown on the attached, if you put your fibs like mine you can look at them.

I'm going to set an audible alert now for 221, at which time I will look at price action, including that on lower timeframes, possibly take 1/2 position and maybe wait and see how far it pulls back for the other half.

My ideal entry on a short would be to see a 4 hr. candle close below support, then an entire body (ignore wicks) below the support, then a pullback to support and a reversal on 1 hr. or even maybe 15 minute chart, that way there is good confirmation PLUS a great entry price. Usually it's a compromise between the two.

If I did this, I'd probably be using just about everything I know about trading. And by "know", I mean that little bit which I've found useful after thousands of hours study and weeding out almost everything else.

Comments, anyone? Sizz, I'd like to hear your thoughts.

Edit: If you look at a weekly chart going back to around 3/2004, you'd probably agree that there's going to be a lot of action at this 221.26 level or thereabouts. If the neckline of the weekly h&s is broken, there will be a lot of opportunity. I still would take profit at the levels I mentioned above, then see what the chart says.

Edit again: I've been away from the charts for a week or so and things do look different after all that rest. Be sure to put the trendline on your daily from 9/12/2000 to 7/21/2005. It stands between the breakout and the targets I mentioned. However, I feel the break below ~221 will be stronger than the support the trendline offers. I'd expect wild price action in that area ("wild" is always a safe prediction on the G/J!).
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  • #815
  • Edited 12:41pm Dec 30, 2007 7:51am | Edited 12:41pm
Blue,

I have some family type stuff to get through today(sunday funday!)ha! but thankfully a brunch is coming to sop up those vodkas from last night

I will tear apart the Geppy as I see it on a few charts when I back. I will use fibs and other stuff.

quickly since I think this is coming into question by you and others re systems .. I don't think of this a really as system so don't get discouraged more on those thoughts when I get back.

Sizz
  • #816
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:37am Dec 30, 2007 8:37am
Quoting dagoods

OK POP QUIZ.......... see the latest gdp/jpy chart below..... query: where is this pair going next (next target) and why? AND how long will it take to get there?
Hi dagoods,
i had a target at fe 61.8 and fe 100,
why? :it's seem like ABCD to me
how long? i really don't know
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in
  • #817
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:13pm Dec 30, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting dagoods
i thought seriously hard about what you were saying about indicators and such on this thread...and i have come to a definite conclusion....




They really ARE very pretty!
Did your platform explode after you initiated all those indicators? Anyway, I see by your chart you are getting a pretty clear signal to buy when the price goes up. Ohhhh... wait, I mean sell.
Robonacci com
  • #818
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:45pm Dec 30, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting dagoods
now...on a more serious note all.... i dont get it...... i see that price hits fibs...ok great....but which ones in which order is still a big ole mystery... I also see that there are cycles within cycles and bigger and smaller s/rs that make up those cycles that are forming as we speak according to price action...... BUT>>>>vhands doesnt want to give us the magic fairy dust and golden geese just yet....and boy is it frustrating...

cant we please please have more hints dear skunnyman.... pal, genius, demigod (was that one too much) how much arse kissing must we do????

OK POP QUIZ.......... see the latest gdp/jpy chart below..... query: where is this pair going next (next target) and why? AND how long will it take to get there? (maybe its too ez and we are making it more complicated than it need be? I dont know... what i do know is we need o uncle skunny to pop in with more exercises and hints and maybe even a little more than hints for idiots like me

so let us all here in the skunnycult gather together and praise o mighty master of the forexuniverse and give him thanks and praise and petition with open hearts and karmic power for ,..... ah forget it..... everyone post and beg skunny for MORE just copy and paste >>> "please sir may I have some more"


NOW>>>>>>

who has answers to the quiz? "anyone? anyone? Buehler? Buehler?"
This is pretty good!

Now if I was more ego driven this might work LOL.

I am in the process of figuring out how to handle all the questions (without answering them) I really want to show you how to look at the market and find a way to trade it. If I move forward with many of the questions it will become more about how I trade. If this happens, it will consume more of my time than I have to offer right now. I will figure something out, but I haven't just yet.

OK, do this. Modify your fib so the only lines you have are the 0,100 and two 38ext's. Now you should have a total of 4 lines. Adjust your fib only after the extension is reached. Wait and identify the next s/r level to pull your new fib. Just work one time frame and forget about being fancy with multiple time frames.

There are some good posts here that go in the right direction and then it becomes over thought and goes off track. It will come to you. Remember however, many of you are still hooked on previous trading methods/systems that aren't allowing your brains to test simplicity. We all think we need to something complicated, in fact soooooo complicated only 5% of traders have figured it out. It is my opinion that the 95% are looking for sophistication instead of simplification.

Price goes up and stops and then goes down and stops and then goes back up and then back down
Robonacci com
  • #819
  • Edited 4:05pm Dec 30, 2007 3:34pm | Edited 4:05pm
for it here is how I see the Pound Yen cross. For all intents and purposes , for those cursed to read my ramblings,assume I have been trading for two days on a demo and I love ma crosses on my counter trend system.

Tried to put fibs on in the context of this thread as I understand it . this is loose meat slapped together. No snag-it sorry.


Also... I PERSONALLY feel MOST analysis and forecasting is just... well... can't you wait for the market to tell you? If that makes sense

I have always had a nagging inkling otherwise though, hence my insano interest in this thread couple with predictive work I have been working on.

Who trades solely on predictions?... well I guess Pip(Colbert) from miss cleo.... she had a great Jerk signal service in the mid 90s... always long on pork bellies though... hmm


FUNDS

G/U U/J

Due to UK financial sweetness I think the correction on g/u will go deep mortgages housing etc.. think USA but earlier.. Now I think U/j is about to resume its weakening.. I like the yen right now sue me. ... I have also done charts on these pairs...FYI so i am not JUST taking funds.

So I say...bearish G/U bearish U/J and mix in overall I feel flight from risk being a theme for the near future.

Depending on how long term we are looking obviously currency will trend toward favorable interest rate differentials... but seriously that is long term.

So my fundie sense says Growl we are bearish bias!! BUT I normally do this as a last thing so as not to bias myself.

Alright I am not going to go into to too much PA just fibs and some lines look at them and draw your own conclusions. I am MAINLY interested in discussion debate about the fibs and just wanted to give an idea of how they COULD fit into a trading style

WEEKLY



It tells me I am short until ABOUT 221 with that last candle and S/R . If my craptacular fibbrology is to be believed That would signal a break of the 0 and blammo the 138 on that signals a break on the bigger fib so weeee 207 ish

the 207 doesn;t make sense to me and i would prolly look at the 213 and 208 before that... but again this is weekly a lot can happen.

I am not sure, infact I am PRETTY sure Skunny would puke on toast if he saw these fibs. I did work back in this thread on this pair , but it was like a fit of analysis and I can't remember how or why I did what I did. "I" trust those blackout analysis sessions though. this is not one of those.

DAILY

Meh... two fibs... still not really 100% on drawing them.obvi but I do like the 138's and it all makes sense to me... I had to zoom out but I really like the d1 chart so many sweet flags and pennants.

I use those two blue lines a lot for breaks So meh meh meh I would just say watch and act on it will it bounce won;t it? AHH!!! biting nails

I could give a fig. just take the trade as it comes. BUT to sin cardinally... biasing myself with the fibs and market flow I would say down town Julie brown on this. We have time and range though this is a daily so on to


4H

Alright this is a hot mess. I used the.. well ...I got myself completely confused with fibs... I was walking around the 1H tf for the last half hour checking it out... I blame lowell. ..now fun thought for the day...Fun UNTESTED thought for the day. also blaming Lowell for this...

are we going to see the 235.55 level?? Is it going to bounce again or smash on down. I have my suspicions but lets wait for the market.

That is what I have shaking on this beast nothing special pretty elementary.

If anyone is interested I would LURVY love lOVE <3 to have them beat these charts up. I am always open minded and love looking at things differently and making fun of you for being so wrong. KIDDING I own a lot of real estate in wrong. I might be the mayor someday!!




Sizz
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  • #820
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:42pm Dec 30, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting Skunny
This is pretty good!

Now if I was more ego driven this might work LOL.

I am in the process of figuring out how to handle all the questions (without answering them) I really want to show you how to look at the market and find a way to trade it. If I move forward with many of the questions it will become more about how I trade. If this happens, it will consume more of my time than I have to offer right now. I will figure something out, but I haven't just yet.

OK, do this. Modify your fib so the only lines you have are the 0,100 and two 38ext's. Now you should have a total of 4 lines. Adjust your fib only after the extension is reached. Wait and identify the next s/r level to pull your new fib. Just work one time frame and forget about being fancy with multiple time frames.

There are some good posts here that go in the right direction and then it becomes over thought and goes off track. It will come to you. Remember however, many of you are still hooked on previous trading methods/systems that aren't allowing your brains to test simplicity. We all think we need to something complicated, in fact soooooo complicated only 5% of traders have figured it out. It is my opinion that the 95% are looking for sophistication instead of simplification.

Price goes up and stops and then goes down and stops and then goes back up and then back down
So the question becomes, will it or won't it?
PipHunter
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