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Cable Update - Continued 61 replies

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Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

but we wont see the snow
its just money
Quoting Pickensrulz
It's a bit complicated and I'm not sure what basis of knowledge about the market you have....

Do you know what a "carry trade" is?
I think I understand the principle of a carry trade. Borrowing from a low interest currency such as the yen and investing in a high yield currency such as the Aussie or Kiwi.
Hey Kharvell overall move is to 9100- 9040's area what area are you from by the way. It wouldnt happen to be washington, DC would it.



Quoting kharvell
I've been short since 1.9636 on jan 2nd. have 328 PIPS right now... I expect it to go even lower, but a break above 1.94 will take me on the long side most likely
Quoting JAKOBEN
I think I understand the principle of a carry trade. Borrowing from a low interest currency such as the yen and investing in a high yield currency such as the Aussie or Kiwi.
Basically correct. Now the looming problem with this investment is that the yen (or swissy) will strengthen and make the cost of paying back the loan too much. So when these "experts" or model funds get a signal that the yen will strengthen they will sell their investment vehicle in the high yielding currency and buy the low yielding currency to repay the loan. It turns into a snowball effect as more funds start to do this it pushes the prices.

The yen is showing signs of reversal technically and BOJ has a rate decision upcoming that is favoring a hike.

Last night it pushed the yen way down as well as the all the yen crosses. Factor in the commodities plunge recently it was due to happen.

So it's something to keep an eye on in the future.
Quoting tinaroel
short at 1.9313
its trying to break S1 1.9298
lets see if it breaks M1 1.9267
why did u say this, how did u know it was trying?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
Quote
Hey Kharvell overall move is to 9100- 9040's area what area are you from by the way. It wouldnt happen to be washington, DC would it.

No sir, I am from Dallas, TX. And I agree with you on the going to 1.9100's.. 1.9163 sounds like a good number actually And where might you be from?
Quoting Pickensrulz
Basically correct. Now the looming problem with this investment is that the yen (or swissy) will strengthen and make the cost of paying back the loan too much. So when these "experts" or model funds get a signal that the yen will strengthen they will sell their investment vehicle in the high yielding currency and buy the low yielding currency to repay the loan. It turns into a snowball effect as more funds start to do this it pushes the prices.

The yen is showing signs of reversal technically and BOJ has a rate decision upcoming that is favoring a hike.

Last night it pushed the yen way down as well as the all the yen crosses. Factor in the commodities plunge recently it was due to happen.

So it's something to keep an eye on in the future.
Thanks the penny has now dropped and the light has come on.I just hope it stays on.
Quoting JAKOBEN
Thanks the penny has now dropped and the light has come on.I just hope it stays on.
You are welcome.

good luck. good trades!
hmm nothing so far..
Quoting SeekingLight
If Gold closes below the trendline it should be descending further.
Traditional understanding is higher gold = weaker dollar and vice versa.
So far it's making a bounce and that's currently coinciding with cable pausing it's descent
No visible reason to panic just yet for me though, haven't seen a reversal sign yet. If we pause too long that's a different story.
Minor tiny news in 15 mins, maybe that restarts the engine on cable.

No idea if anyone followed this, I did. Gold and the reaction did exactly what it was supposed to: moved below the trendline, gave a last gasp and then disappeared. This coincided with the drop we saw to 1.9350 and also to the next leg down during NFP. Although it was pretty much over once it broke it in the first place.
I will post the big picture, zoomed and the cable macro view, too, to explain why I was originally aiming for 1.9350 and then lower.
Even though my trade management was a total disaster, the actual initial trade entry and targets were totally valid.
Trader stick to your trading plan, what else can I say....
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
Zoomed in so that you can see that trendline breaks are best taken as the trendline is retested to save on stop size and get more pips.

Raczekfx would be proud
This is also the best way to trade Mouteki in case anyone still remembers that, ahem.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
Next possible support line / interim step down for cable and the trendline currently holding price.
If we pass the big 61.8% AND the 78.6% things are going to get VERY interesting indeed.....but let's not jump to conclusions here
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Trust price. Know yourself.
Quoting Ghostpipper
why did u say this, how did u know it was trying?
Price hovered around 1.9267 area before it went back up to 1.9298 area
It's a pivot system that I learned from Peter Bains...

I still see a downtrend here.....
Use a system that works for YOU
Quoting dukeofdents
BTW, I would stay short on GBP/USD until it starts going back up, at which time I would go long. When I was long, I'd wait until it started going down and go short. When it quits going down and starts going up I'd go long again. That's just my own personal analysis...
Freakin Brilliant!!! I can't believe your giving out your strategy for free!
That's probably the best post I've ever read and just goes to prove that you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.



Originally Posted by dukeofdents
BTW, I would stay short on GBP/USD until it starts going back up, at which time I would go long. When I was long, I'd wait until it started going down and go short. When it quits going down and starts going up I'd go long again. That's just my own personal analysis...
Trade what you see - Not what you think
The trick is being able to tell the noise from a true movement in a different direction. Now if you can tell us that secret...
Where will it go on monday... will it start retracting or will it continue it's downtrend?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
2006 Daily for GbpUsd
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Gbp Usd 2005
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The market opens in a couple of hours, what's going to happen with GU
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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