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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #401
  • Dec 22, 2007 11:29am Dec 22, 2007 11:29am
Quoting 4XWeezal
Hmm. How do you determine when the market is ready for a
correction. Obviously, stochastics is one way but is there another.
that would be my wholly grail. Anyway, the most "hits" has some merit. But, turns are never easy or we would all be rich.

easy just use trendline breaks...personally thats all i use to trade.... nothing else needed..... try reading the mouteki thread...download the mt4 indicator tdtl (Tom Demark Trend Line) after practicing on demo with this.... = shows you when a correction = YOUR wholly grail.... but first = VERY IMPORTANT

YOU MUST LEARN BY HAND AND DEMO = read mouteki VERY CAREFULLY and only use it on 4 hour TF and higher and practice mouteki(really thomas demark) system on demo a lot ( DO IT BY HAND rather than with the indicator) as i've found some people do it wrong and the indicator is only a guide and is not perfect... also, your tps should be less than moutekis projected tps= step 2 now add fibs watch the calendar for news that can mess you up look at higher timeframes for "bigger" things that can mess you up use proper MM merry x mas and happy holidays all
  • #402
  • Edited 2:19pm Dec 22, 2007 2:02pm | Edited 2:19pm
Well, here is telsa's alerter.
My question is does anyone know how to
bring over to the ea from the indicator using the "icustom" feature.
That is, the goal would be to draw these trend line breaks using the alerter
and if in proximity trigger a buy or sell trade?.. you could use a short moving average in addition so that when it triggers if it was above. the ea would kick in. That way you would not have to determine the right direction. IT would just go.
Obviously, any ea would work providing it could read the trend line description.
It looks like we would need a "set index buffer function added to the alerter.


double iCustom( string symbol, int timeframe, string name, ..., int mode, int shift)
Calculates the specified custom indicator and returns its value. The custom indicator must be compiled (*.EX4 file) and be in the terminal_directory\experts\indicators directory.
Parameters:
symbol - Symbol the data of which should be used to calculate indicator. NULL means current symbol.
timeframe - Timeframe. It can be any of Timeframe enumeration values. 0 means the current chart timeframe.
name - Custom indicator compiled program name.
... - Parameters set (if necessary). The passed parameters and their order must correspond with the desclaration order and the type of extern variables of the custom indicator.
mode - Line index. Can be from 0 to 7 and must correspond with the index used by one of SetIndexBuffer functions.
shift - Index of the value taken from the indicator buffer (shift relative to the current bar the given amount of periods ago).
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Alerter.mq4   3 KB | 839 downloads
  • #403
  • Dec 22, 2007 2:11pm Dec 22, 2007 2:11pm
I read several pages of this system and I didn't see one live trade, maybe I missed it/them. Sure would be nice to see one or two (its easier to learn).
JohnW does mention trendline breaks as part of his method, so any info is appreciated.
Seems the indicator that is mentioned can be confusing...sounds like a typical indicator problem.
Its easy to call live trades as they're happening. So, if you have a system to mention, how about posting a live trade or two...I've seen too many on here that ended up in the scrap heap.
Placing live calls gives those that love to tell you that you were wrong a place rub it in... and if you're right, they just sulk away until you make a bad call... AHHHH my kind of people...ain't the forums great!
  • #404
  • Dec 22, 2007 2:21pm Dec 22, 2007 2:21pm
I hope someone could answer my alerter thread. IT would make all of our lives easier. I am not very good in programming in custom indicators.
  • #405
  • Dec 22, 2007 6:45pm Dec 22, 2007 6:45pm
Quoting FXNorm
I read several pages of this system and I didn't see one live trade, maybe I missed it/them. Sure would be nice to see one or two (its easier to learn).
JohnW does mention trendline breaks as part of his method, so any info is appreciated.
Seems the indicator that is mentioned can be confusing...sounds like a typical indicator problem.
Its easy to call live trades as they're happening. So, if you have a system to mention, how about posting a live trade or two...I've seen too many on here that ended up in the scrap heap.
Placing live calls gives those that love to tell you that you were wrong a place rub it in... and if you're right, they just sulk away until you make a bad call... AHHHH my kind of people...ain't the forums great!

FXNorm -

Just a note. I am done with this thread because I really have nothing more to add. The key points are that if you spend a month or 2 watching what happens when price breaks a trendline (formed on the 30M over the course of 2 or 3 days) and when price breaks an S/R level, again formed on the 30M over the course of 2-3 day, you get a good idea for the foundation of a really reliable trading method. I have shared my live statement with my 2 students (btw, up 33% in December and I have stopped trading until the 2nd week of January). I won't be placing live calls here mostly because my purpose in revealing how I trade was to stimulate thinking about trading with no indicators except price action. The few that I have on my charts are holdovers from prior training/systems. If they confirm my trade decision, then I feel more "warm & fuzzy" when I shut down my trading platform for the night. I typically place orders about 2 hours before the start of London and sometimes again at the start of NY. I think what Skunny is doing on his thread is an excellent move in the right direction. And since I "discovered" (not really a new discovery my any means) this method, I only trade live using it exclusively.

Don't pay too much attention to the MA's I have on my chart. Pay attention to the trend (daily), S/R levels, and trendlines on 30M and daily.

Happy Holidays to all.

JohnW
Chance favors the prepared
  • #406
  • Edited Dec 23, 2007 9:07am Dec 22, 2007 7:12pm | Edited Dec 23, 2007 9:07am
Hi JohnW!

Thanks for your response. The only question I have is whether anyone can play all the breakouts that you mention with total confidence. Reason:
Many breakouts are less than 10 pips and can fall back on themselves and trigger the stoploss. How to know which are playable and which are not. Is the answer in observing P/A as its happening? I think we're confused on what produces the 97%. I find that even playing perfect breakouts I can only achieve about 75% and I've watched a lot. We need the clue that increases the winning edge another 22%.

Thanks Again for your method, and Merry Christmas to you
  • #407
  • Dec 22, 2007 7:23pm Dec 22, 2007 7:23pm
Well done John. I am a full time trader as well. I have spent over $15,000 in software, systems, seminars , mentorship programs the list goes on and on.

I started as a stock trader 5 years ago.

The best encouragement I can give for all those aspiring to be a profitable Forex trader is just don't give up.

You will have your moment. Sooner or later the light bulb will go off and everybody's light bulb is different. John does not use indicators. I do. You may end up using trend lines. It doesn't matter. But if you hang in there long enough something will trigger that makes sense to you and it will work for you. I have worked with allot of people with my system and to be quit frank even with my success working with them personally still only a small percent end up trading it successfully. You have to create something that makes sense to you.

I know it all seams very confusing and frustrating while you are trying to find your way to trading the Forex market successfully.
Take it from me just hang in there.
Life is like a stone, It can grind you, or it can sharpen you. Your Choice.
  • #408
  • Dec 23, 2007 12:15am Dec 23, 2007 12:15am
Quoting JohnW
Craig -

Like many, I spent years looking for something that worked. My method uses primarily S/R levels and long term trends. S/R levels are determined by swings and trend lines. As David suggests, I trade intraday. I typically find 2 -4 trade setups per day, and sometimes all are triggered, sometimes none. I enter on the 30M exclusively. I never look at anything under 30M. I have been successful on all the major pairs (the 6 majors & EUR/JPY - I don't trade the GBP/JPY).

The golden truth is that trading with multiple indicators is doom. Multiple time frames are important. That's why I highly recommend taking off all indicators except maybe (big maybe) one or two moving averages to measure bias. My trigger is based soley on price action. PA & S/R IS ALL YOU NEED (plus common sense, courage, patience, and an eye on fundamentals/news items).

You need courage to risk $$ (even my method has losses) and patience to wait for good setups. BTW, I NEVER EVER enter a market order (that's a clue). I use only stop orders.

When you look at a chart, do you need an indicator to tell you if its trending?

As I said in my post, reading many of the posts in this forum is great because they make you think. Take a look at any chart 30M or larger time frame. Ask yourself this: where will price NOT go? Why not? Where do you think the stop orders are?

I could lay out exactly what I do, but here's the problem: its accepted by most that 2 people given the same method will have very different results. The fact is that there is no substitute for thinking and discovering what works in trading. This forum has tons of resources (folks like James16) that taken in context are very useful.

So throw out all the elegant colorful indicators. Get used to a "naked" chart and trade (demo) off it. You will probably find after a few weeks that indicators hide more than they reveal and that they can only be useful as weak guides.

I am now attempting to train 2 people in this method. I train them in person with my live account up and running. I don't believe that truly successful traders should charge for a method (I am not charging my students), and if they are successful, I will consider making a .DOC file available for those on this forum who are interested. In teaching my 2 students, I will learn which concepts are grasped readily and which are difficult. They have no prior trading experience.
I am new to forex market and i am eager to learn forex and i aim to be a full time forex trader. At present i have traded for a about a month time and i have search a lot of reading material on the net and read a lot.
Sincerely speaking i have lost about USD100.00 at present, that is just a small amount of money, after that i have came to forexfactory and read many people post and i have follow advice given by people like you in the FF forum.At present i am trading live money with lot size not more than 10.00 lot....very small size, as i am expecting to lost more and more, just to learn the forex trade.

Can i ask you to be my teacher..? What it is got to take to be your STUDENT..? Please let me know Or PM me please.

As i can't PM you, so i got no choice but to post it here.
  • #409
  • Dec 23, 2007 4:58am Dec 23, 2007 4:58am
I think, the holy grail is lies within ourself (as johnw said).

JohnW has give his method, but I think this method will result 97% win ratio if JohnW himself execute this trade. If this method given to someone else, I don't think this method will result 97% anymore.

As for defining trend. A chart maybe is in "bias trend" for JohnW, but, is it the same bias for someone else?
EMA 50 and EMA 100 is very weak confirmation (as johnW said).


Is Holy grail exists? I believe "Yes".
Is holy grail can be shared to everyone so that everyone can produce same result? I think "no". It will be hard, unless using modelling NLP technique.

for JohnW: Good work and thanx for sharing.
this thread give some insight for me.
  • #410
  • Dec 23, 2007 7:40am Dec 23, 2007 7:40am
Quoting FXNorm
Stockmarket up another 200 today
On double normal volume!!! Look and see what came next, last time THAT happened.

  • #411
  • Dec 23, 2007 7:50am Dec 23, 2007 7:50am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey now my name is Mike! steve isn't a bad name though(steviet ). Darkstar is a brilliant man
Sorry, Mike. I ran across one of your posts a couple days after I posted that and couldn't remember where I said it.

Rob
  • #412
  • Dec 23, 2007 7:52am Dec 23, 2007 7:52am
Quoting 4XWeezal
That is, the goal would be to draw these trend line breaks using the alerter
and if in proximity trigger a buy or sell trade?..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=336
  • #413
  • Dec 23, 2007 9:50am Dec 23, 2007 9:50am
Quoting FXNorm
Hi JohnW!

Thanks for your response. The only question I have is whether anyone can play all the breakouts that you mention with total confidence. Reason:
Many breakouts are less than 10 pips and can fall back on themselves and trigger the stoploss. How to know which are playable and which are not. Is the answer in observing P/A as its happening? I think we're confused on what produces the 97%. I find that even playing perfect breakouts I can only achieve about 75% and I've watched a lot. We need the clue that increases the winning edge another 22%.

Thanks Again for your method, and Merry Christmas to you

FXNorm -

The things I look at are:

The daily trend (draw trendlines)
30M trend (draw trendlines)
Am I trading against the carry or with it
Where is the next S/R level if I am filled
Will I break a minor (30M) trend and an S/R level when filled
Will I break a major (Daily) trend and an S/R level when filled

There is no such thing as a totally mechanical trading system. All of the ones I bought over the years that claimed to be non-discretionary (like MA crossovers, candle patterns, MACD signals, etc, etc) had some discretionary elements to them (like which time frame). I look at setups and select the best pair to trade. Best pair means best trend, most hits on S/R level, no pending big news events, etc. How many traders had buy stops in place above the USD/JPY level that broke last Friday (see the 30M chart). Trading successfully requires thought. Ignore the vendors telling you that this is easy, that you can "learn to trade like a pro in and hour", that if you just plug in these "secret" indicators that "banks don't want you to know" you will make 1000's of pips per month.

Want to know what really pisses me off? Every week I watch the number of entries on eBay for "forex". Last week it passed over 500. This means that there are now more scammers selling false hope than ever before. These rat bastard vendors make serious dough (I see Bill Poulos claims to have sold 500 copies of his MA crossover system for $2000 each - how much $$ is that?) feeding off the dreams of ignorant desperate people. My posting of my method is my effort to stop this. Spread the message.
Chance favors the prepared
  • #414
  • Edited 10:11am Dec 23, 2007 9:55am | Edited 10:11am
thanks. This does help alot ---
I will need to figure out some close condition language to add to it
also, thanks John W. ..your dead right about indicators and crossover
systems, they are giant cash cows to the charlitans. I have programmed a thousand ways these systems and its tough when you get to chop. The system just don't hold up. pivots, rsi, ma etc.. markets are just not that easy to automate.
-- 99% of system orders just don't cut it as markets change too much or the stop losses are not good on the stomache.
  • #415
  • Dec 23, 2007 10:07am Dec 23, 2007 10:07am
Hi,
thanks for the method. Please post some trades you took with charts, so we can see. thanks.


Quoting JohnW
FXNorm -

The things I look at are:

The daily trend (draw trendlines)
30M trend (draw trendlines)
Am I trading against the carry or with it
Where is the next S/R level if I am filled
Will I break a minor (30M) trend and an S/R level when filled
Will I break a major (Daily) trend and an S/R level when filled

There is no such thing as a totally mechanical trading system. All of the ones I bought over the years that claimed to be non-discretionary (like MA crossovers, candle patterns, MACD signals, etc, etc) had some discretionary elements to them (like which time frame). I look at setups and select the best pair to trade. Best pair means best trend, most hits on S/R level, no pending big news events, etc. How many traders had buy stops in place above the USD/JPY level that broke last Friday (see the 30M chart). Trading successfully requires thought. Ignore the vendors telling you that this is easy, that you can "learn to trade like a pro in and hour", that if you just plug in these "secret" indicators that "banks don't want you to know" you will make 1000's of pips per month.

Want to know what really pisses me off? Every week I watch the number of entries on eBay for "forex". Last week it passed over 500. This means that there are now more scammers selling false hope than ever before. These rat bastard vendors make serious dough (I see Bill Poulos claims to have sold 500 copies of his MA crossover system for $2000 each - how much $$ is that?) feeding off the dreams of ignorant desperate people. My posting of my method is my effort to stop this. Spread the message.
  • #416
  • Dec 23, 2007 12:07pm Dec 23, 2007 12:07pm
Hi John,

Thanks for the additional:


It is a shame that all these scammers are allowed to proliferate with no controls whatssoever.
I'll add my two cents on here to "spread the word".
If the newbie's find your thread, they'll find enough protection in your method to keep them out of trouble, if they're wise enough and don't get taken in to the "indicator craze".
Although some traders claim that indicators work for them, I doubt that the vast majority of newbie's will ever make a dime using them (Indicators that tell you when to buy or sell). The 50 and 100 ma's used for this method do not indicate when to buy or sell, they only make it easier to envision trend direction and bias, and they do an excellent job.
Anyways, please enjoy your holidays, John, and do stop by and see how things are going. And if you find a breakout or two about to take place, please post it, I'll be doing the same if there's an interest.

May God Bless You, John - A Great Guy with a Good Heart!
  • #417
  • Dec 23, 2007 1:22pm Dec 23, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
thanks. This does help alot ---
I will need to figure out some close condition language to add to it
also, thanks John W. ..your dead right about indicators and crossover
systems, they are giant cash cows to the charlitans. I have programmed a thousand ways these systems and its tough when you get to chop. The system just don't hold up. pivots, rsi, ma etc.. markets are just not that easy to automate.
-- 99% of system orders just don't cut it as markets change too much or the stop losses are not good on the stomache.
Thanks 4X! For the informative post. I've always suspected that ea's are rather useless. Its a shame you had to waste your valuable time. Anyways,
the system/systems mentioned here should heal you a little.

Thanks Again - Norm
  • #418
  • Edited 2:23pm Dec 23, 2007 1:43pm | Edited 2:23pm
Eagle, Take a look at gbp/usd on a 30 min chart. The ma's aren't correct on the daily, but they are on the 4hr chart. Anyways, its just a sample of what to look for, you can see many "hits" at support and resistance as the price moves sidways. The ma's aren't that critical, as John noted, its the
multiple "hits" that occur at a given price. Its qiute simple, just need practice.
If you spot one area on a chart, be sure to post it here. I like 1hr,4hr and daily time frames where the ma's are pointing in the trend direction. Remember, the ma's don't mean that much, so just basically look for support and resistance levels that are taking several "hits" and bouncing off as price moves sidways.

(4 hits at 1.9810)
  • #419
  • Dec 23, 2007 4:26pm Dec 23, 2007 4:26pm
These are the best clues on the JohnW method:

“Many breakouts are less than 10 pips and can fall back on themselves and trigger the stoploss. How to know which are playable and which are not. Is the answer in observing P/A as its happening? I think we're confused on what produces the 97%. I find that even playing perfect breakouts I can only achieve about 75% and I've watched a lot. We need the clue that increases the winning edge another 22%”
(by FXNorm #406)

“Sooner or later the light bulb will go off and everybody's light bulb is different. John does not use indicators. I do. You may end up using trend lines. It doesn't matter. But if you hang in there long enough something will trigger that makes sense to you and it will work for you. I have worked with allot of people with my system and to be quit frank even with my success working with them personally still only a small percent end up trading it successfully. You have to create something that makes sense to you” (by howtalru #407)


“EMA 50 and EMA 100 is very weak confirmation (as johnW said)”
(by ronfis #409)


The 22% edge you need to unlock yourself. It is better that
JohnW doesn’t mention this. Makes a challenge to find out
yourself and later make that discretionary.
screen action instead of price action
  • #420
  • Edited 5:23pm Dec 23, 2007 4:53pm | Edited 5:23pm
Hi System,

"The 22% edge you need to unlock yourself. It is better that
JohnW doesn’t mention this."

You really think so huh? lol

Actually, I have it figured out pretty well. Breakout are quite simple.

JohnW sounds like a pretty honest guy, I think if there was something special He would have mentioned it for the good of all.
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