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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #21
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:50am Dec 7, 2007 7:50am
Quoting JohnW
David -

You have the concept, now with some thought you can design a method to utilize it. That is what I did.

JohnW
I must flag this thread, i think something big could rise...
  • #22
  • Dec 7, 2007 8:04am Dec 7, 2007 8:04am
It’s certainly thought provoking and a little cryptic.
JohnW how on earth would you determin who is moving the market? sorry if im being thick.
  • #23
  • Dec 7, 2007 11:18am Dec 7, 2007 11:18am
Quoting giusepp8
hi john ...

I've had studied j16 PA too ... and finally i understood that price is really the king on any market you trade.
Was wondering if the only indicator you use is for divergence ? ... ' cause i've been playing around for awhile hith divergence and it's giving good results.

John is absolutely right, PA is King. If you throw away all the garbage indicators, all you need is S/R, the overall trend, and to watch PA like a hawk.
  • #24
  • Edited 1:05pm Dec 7, 2007 12:40pm | Edited 1:05pm
Blueruby, I too would (well, almost) sell my soul to discover a method capable of maintaining a 97% win rate across 240 live trades. JohnW's post is easily THE most enticing I've read in my 18 months or so on the forum, and I was probably getting through 200–300 posts every day.

When one compares this performance of the very best managed funds – who presumably employ top analysts – a 97% win rate is unprecedented, and I would say unbelievable, except that the rest of his post sounds so genuine. I expect that he has already been inundated with several seven or eight figure offers to share his system. I considered doing the same myself (it wouldn't be hard finding/forming a syndicate of people who are keen for a 1,000,000%+ p.a. return – give or take a few thousand percent LOL). But, even if JohnW was willing to sell, the satisfaction surely lies in solving the puzzle for oneself. There are some great minds, and experienced traders, who trawl this forum. Folk who understand the way markets, institutions and brokers operate: the dynamics that underlie price movement.

So let's think about what JohnW is telling us. He says that he's "no genius" and that his method is "both profoundly logical and simple.... way more logical than anything I have ever seen".

He has made 240 trades in 6 months, which averages out at about 2 per day. That should give us a clue as to which timeframes he is trading. Unless his trades overlap, he must be trading intraday.

He says that (his own emphasis) "PA is king", and that the key is that "the market is made up of traders with varying strength" and that most (inferior) systems "ignore the simple truth of who drives prices and they attempt to predict price movement".

He uses only one technical indicator, and advises clearing everything else from the chart. In his next post (#6 in this thread), he states that he gives no credence to pin bars or candle patterns, and that indicators in themselves have no predictive value.

From this process of reduction, all we are apparently left with is tick data (raw price action), and S/R. Volume is largely irrelevant in forex, and dismissing it further simplifies our task. Surely a puzzle with very few pieces can't be that difficult to solve.

"Ask yourself this: when price goes to a certain level and stops (forming an S/R level), why did it stop there? Who moved it there? Who will move it away from tha S/R level? And how does this all fit in with the long term trend?"

So how does tick data, S/R and the long term trend tell us WHO is moving price? The only information I can see here is (1) the direction of the long term trend, (2) the "quality" of the S/R (how many times it's previously been rejected), and (3) the speed/strength of the move that reached it. Put all of this together and we can apparently determine WHO has the greatest bearing in moving price, i.e. supposedly commercials, heavyweight banks and institutions, or small retail traders.

A swift move toward, or away from, a point is represented by one or more long (high) candles. Does this mean that this move has been primarily caused by heavyweight players?

Performing a visual backtest, what is the most likely result if quality S/R is reached via long candles? Or short candles? With or against the direction of the longer term (daily?) trend? If price starts to move swiftly away from strong S/R, does this frequently herald the start of a big daily move? What about the way in which the S/R levels are clustered? Remember, we're looking for a pattern that generates an unbelievably high success rate, so it should stand out like a lighthouse. What about certain times of the day? Days of the week, or month? Patterns around certain news announcements? At what times are the key players participating, and what is their collective effect on price movement?

And which technical indicator does he use? From the theme in his post, I don't think it's necessarily a complex one, or if its identity even matters. Sounds like it might either be summarizing the long term trend direction, or the nature of the move toward, or away from, S/R. Unless of course, there's more that he's not telling us – but he says he's already given us the key.

He makes no mention of a specific currency pair. This suggests to me that this is a robust concept that can be universally applied, i.e. it's simply the way in which prices are moving toward, and/or away from, S/R. Detailed numbers (i.e. optimization) is therefore likewise unimportant.

I assume that if we can discover the pattern, then devising entry and exit rules won't be that difficult. A pattern that can potentially generate a 90%+ win rate leaves plenty of room for error.

I haven't a clue whether or not I'm thinking along the right lines. After reading gobs of material and looking at charts for 6 years, my head is totally scrambled.

What have I missed? Ideas, anybody?

David
  • #25
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:26pm Dec 7, 2007 1:26pm


Good questions hanover good questions

Baffling I have to say, conceptually sound but practically baffling as in 'Who'
  • #26
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:32pm Dec 7, 2007 1:32pm
I don't know what he is doing.
I know, in general, that systems that claim to detect the "smart money" are nothing new or revolutionary. You find them being hawked for stocks, futures, indexes even horse racing.
  • #27
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:35pm Dec 7, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting hanover

What have I missed? Ideas, anybody?

David
"The primary requirements for successful live forex trading are courage and patience. The market is made up of traders with varying strength. This last statement is the key."

Courage to buy after a +200 pip drop in price against the longer term trend? Patience to wait for price to change direction after you have taken a new position?

The only traders with enough muscle to move price play in the 'Real' Interbank. Retail traders like myself must endure enormous amounts of noise on a daily basis. This noise changes it's bias like I change my underpants.

So who are the BIG players. The Fed has the biggest role and they have been known to inject billions to obtain a desired result. I'm out of my league now so I'll leave future speculation to others for now.
  • #28
  • Edited 3:18pm Dec 7, 2007 3:07pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting JohnW
David -

You have the concept, now with some thought you can design a method to utilize it. That is what I did.

JohnW
Thanks John, you've certainly got me thinking again. And at a point where I'd decided to throw it all away. All of the TA approaches I'd looked at weren't giving me the edge I felt I needed.

Anyway, apparently there is a simple pattern, but one that's easily overlooked (otherwise it would be more widely discussed).

Congratulations on your success. It's always inspiring to read stories where effort and perseverance through adversity eventually pay off.

Cheers,
David
  • #29
  • Dec 7, 2007 4:42pm Dec 7, 2007 4:42pm
I'd really like to believe the story at the start of this thread but it falls victim to it's own premises. Like the vendors he correctly maligns, he offers zero proof of anything, yet here we are busting our brains trying to pull each sentence apart in the hope of uncovering some golden key, running once again on faith and hope. If there is one immutable truth in trading, it is nobody is going to help you, you have to figure it out for yourself. You might not always get what you pay for, but you certainly get nothing for nothing.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #30
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:16pm Dec 7, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting Craig
I'd really like to believe the story at the start of this thread but it falls victim to it's own premises.
Yes, I agree Craig. I wonder why this thread was put in the Beginner Q&A instead of the discusion forum or the system forum.
  • #31
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:08pm Dec 7, 2007 6:08pm
Quoting Craig
I'd really like to believe the story at the start of this thread but it falls victim to it's own premises. Like the vendors he correctly maligns, he offers zero proof of anything, yet here we are busting our brains trying to pull each sentence apart in the hope of uncovering some golden key, running once again on faith and hope. If there is one immutable truth in trading, it is nobody is going to help you, you have to figure it out for yourself. You might not always get what you pay for, but you certainly get nothing for nothing.

Craig -

Like many, I spent years looking for something that worked. My method uses primarily S/R levels and long term trends. S/R levels are determined by swings and trend lines. As David suggests, I trade intraday. I typically find 2 -4 trade setups per day, and sometimes all are triggered, sometimes none. I enter on the 30M exclusively. I never look at anything under 30M. I have been successful on all the major pairs (the 6 majors & EUR/JPY - I don't trade the GBP/JPY).

The golden truth is that trading with multiple indicators is doom. Multiple time frames are important. That's why I highly recommend taking off all indicators except maybe (big maybe) one or two moving averages to measure bias. My trigger is based soley on price action. PA & S/R IS ALL YOU NEED (plus common sense, courage, patience, and an eye on fundamentals/news items).

You need courage to risk $$ (even my method has losses) and patience to wait for good setups. BTW, I NEVER EVER enter a market order (that's a clue). I use only stop orders.

When you look at a chart, do you need an indicator to tell you if its trending?

As I said in my post, reading many of the posts in this forum is great because they make you think. Take a look at any chart 30M or larger time frame. Ask yourself this: where will price NOT go? Why not? Where do you think the stop orders are?

I could lay out exactly what I do, but here's the problem: its accepted by most that 2 people given the same method will have very different results. The fact is that there is no substitute for thinking and discovering what works in trading. This forum has tons of resources (folks like James16) that taken in context are very useful.

So throw out all the elegant colorful indicators. Get used to a "naked" chart and trade (demo) off it. You will probably find after a few weeks that indicators hide more than they reveal and that they can only be useful as weak guides.

I am now attempting to train 2 people in this method. I train them in person with my live account up and running. I don't believe that truly successful traders should charge for a method (I am not charging my students), and if they are successful, I will consider making a .DOC file available for those on this forum who are interested. In teaching my 2 students, I will learn which concepts are grasped readily and which are difficult. They have no prior trading experience.
Chance favors the prepared
  • #32
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:18pm Dec 7, 2007 6:18pm
Is it anything to do with pivot candles on the daily?
  • #33
  • Dec 8, 2007 1:19am Dec 8, 2007 1:19am
to be short: the holy grail in trading is patience and not getting emotional. i have found this to be very very very x 100 rewarding.
as a real example:
Monday: no trade ( i didn't see an opportunity)
Tuesday: no trade
Wednesday: no trade
Thursday: made 700 pips in one single day.

(not this Thursday, but on a particular day after 3 days of not trading)

in the beginning i often would enter a trade just to trade. don't do that. wait like a sniper, then "shoot". wait for a trend, then ride it, and ride it hard
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #34
  • Dec 8, 2007 1:49am Dec 8, 2007 1:49am
Quoting JohnW
Craig -

Like many, I spent years looking for something that worked. My method uses primarily S/R levels and long term trends. S/R levels are determined by swings and trend lines. As David suggests, I trade intraday. I typically find 2 -4 trade setups per day, and sometimes all are triggered, sometimes none. I enter on the 30M exclusively. I never look at anything under 30M. I have been successful on all the major pairs (the 6 majors & EUR/JPY - I don't trade the GBP/JPY).

The golden truth is that trading with multiple indicators is doom. Multiple time frames are important. That's why I highly recommend taking off all indicators except maybe (big maybe) one or two moving averages to measure bias. My trigger is based soley on price action. PA & S/R IS ALL YOU NEED (plus common sense, courage, patience, and an eye on fundamentals/news items).

You need courage to risk $$ (even my method has losses) and patience to wait for good setups. BTW, I NEVER EVER enter a market order (that's a clue). I use only stop orders.

When you look at a chart, do you need an indicator to tell you if its trending?

As I said in my post, reading many of the posts in this forum is great because they make you think. Take a look at any chart 30M or larger time frame. Ask yourself this: where will price NOT go? Why not? Where do you think the stop orders are?

I could lay out exactly what I do, but here's the problem: its accepted by most that 2 people given the same method will have very different results. The fact is that there is no substitute for thinking and discovering what works in trading. This forum has tons of resources (folks like James16) that taken in context are very useful.

So throw out all the elegant colorful indicators. Get used to a "naked" chart and trade (demo) off it. You will probably find after a few weeks that indicators hide more than they reveal and that they can only be useful as weak guides.

I am now attempting to train 2 people in this method. I train them in person with my live account up and running. I don't believe that truly successful traders should charge for a method (I am not charging my students), and if they are successful, I will consider making a .DOC file available for those on this forum who are interested. In teaching my 2 students, I will learn which concepts are grasped readily and which are difficult. They have no prior trading experience.
Even if i'm trading with stochastics, the more i look at the chart, the more i can see the obvious and sometime, i dont look at my indicator. I hope you will make this doc file
  • #35
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:02am Dec 8, 2007 2:02am
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader
to be short: the holy grail in trading is patience and not getting emotional. i have found this to be very very very x 100 rewarding.
as a real example:
Monday: no trade ( i didn't see an opportunity)
Tuesday: no trade
Wednesday: no trade
Thursday: made 700 pips in one single day.

(not this Thursday, but on a particular day after 3 days of not trading)

in the beginning i often would enter a trade just to trade. don't do that. wait like a sniper, then "shoot". wait for a trend, then ride it, and ride it hard
Looks like you have found the holy grail too

So I am not alone here, GREAT!
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #36
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:17am Dec 8, 2007 2:17am
Hi..

well I am surprised this thread is still here...I know the management here dont like the use of "Holy Grail "...all that much, and for good reasons..


This statement alone is a worry for me....

"Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!). "

Any proof shown...nope..

Average win amounts and loss amounts given.....nope

A hyped up first post in the thread to create all the attention.

And the usual ....I am training a few people now to trade using it...

After only 240 trades...6mths(or less) using what you call the Holy Grail..after all the money you said you wasted buy other peoples systems.......yeah right

And considering you would be very rich within the next 12mths...and you want to train others to use it.........sorry.just cant believe it..

In this Section of the Forum you find the beginners...the inexperienced traders all looking for a way to make money...as mentioned before...why put it here...OH...maybe to attract those inexperienced people....just a thought...


Hope your trading goes well...
  • #37
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:26am Dec 8, 2007 2:26am
Quoting Angler
Hi..

well I am surprised this thread is still here...I know the management here dont like the use of "Holy Grail "...all that much, and for good reasons..


This statement alone is a worry for me....

"Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!). "

Any proof shown...nope..

Average win amounts and loss amounts given.....nope

A hyped up first post in the thread to create all the attention.

And the usual ....I am training a few people now to trade using it...

After only 240 trades...6mths(or less) using what you call the Holy Grail..after all the money you said you wasted buy other peoples systems.......yeah right

And considering you would be very rich within the next 12mths...and you want to train others to use it.........sorry.just cant believe it..

In this Section of the Forum you find the beginners...the inexperienced traders all looking for a way to make money...as mentioned before...why put it here...OH...maybe to attract those inexperienced people....just a thought...


Hope your trading goes well...
I remember a Nigerian trader who posted here and got a lot of bad comments...

He was proposing a pretty nice trading strategy based on round number...

I'd rather wait to see if he is going to show more (in particular a statement)
  • #38
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:26am Dec 8, 2007 2:26am
Quoting Angler
Hi..

In this Section of the Forum you find the beginners...the inexperienced traders all looking for a way to make money...as mentioned before...why put it here...OH...maybe to attract those inexperienced people....just a thought...
Hope your trading goes well...

Before you go accusing people of things you should know that this thread was moved here by a moderator and the author said he will provide a document for his method if his 'students' are able to trade it.. nowhere do we see any intention to sell anything, and may that intention be revealed this thread will disappear.
  • #39
  • Edited 3:24am Dec 8, 2007 3:00am | Edited 3:24am
Hi Guys..


well....those comments from experineced traders..thats even more of a worry....that you believe in the Holy Grail of Trading...


And tell me...what valuable information have you gained so far from his posts..

So what value does it have....at this point in time...but attempting to gain attention...none at all...

See the thing is....if the post just discussed ways to look at a chart to come up with a profitable system and talked about multiple options in doing that ....no problem...this is what the forum is for but saying you have the holy Grail....come on...give me a break.
  • #40
  • Dec 8, 2007 3:46am Dec 8, 2007 3:46am
A great trader donīt need to show his proof on the internet forum. He share his statements with friends and families.

He lives in an information technological age. He likes the internet. He donīt waste a time read books, go to seminars etc. He has used the internet trading forums to develop his magical trading sytem. Now he is great. He come here and he talks whatever he likes. He donīt waste his time and hard work to reveal his trading system.

He donīt care what others say about him. He donīt care the world knows him.

I know 1 guy, he is my favoriete trader all time. He is a very great trader that left this forum 1 year ago after people attack him, called him he make unrealistic returns and dont share his trading system here.
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
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