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The Holy Grail - Found

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Dec 6, 2007 10:35am Dec 6, 2007 10:35am
  •  JohnW
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 127 Posts
The Holy Grail……..Found

I have been live trading forex exclusively for the last 4 years and losing consistently. I have spent thousands on what must be at least a hundred courses/systems. I even paid $2000 for a mentorship program from a trader that eventually was proven to be a fraud (I personally did the investigation). Nothing I ever tried worked consistently enough to generate the promised steady stream of income. I have read books from Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" to Horner's "Trading Forex" to Williams' "Trading Chaos". Nothing worked. I slowly have come to the decision that all forex system vendors/gurus are frauds (Birdwatching in Lion Country comes to mind).

Several months ago I purchased another valueless system that after purchase was found to be based on moving averages, Fibonacci, and divergences. Literally, at the same time that I felt duped again by purchasing this system, I had that famous "Ah-ha" moment that psychologists have talked about (and I never believed in). Quite suddenly I realized the correct way to trade. This epiphany was massively overwhelming. Since that day six months ago, I have solely traded my method, which incidentally uses only one indicator. Forget Fibonacci, forget pivots. How many more traders must proclaim that lagging indicators don't work before failing traders, like I was, believe them? I, for one, have passed that hurdle. I have had 6 losses in the 240 trades taken since I started using my method. Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!). It is both profoundly logical and simple. It is the result of subtle input from many systems that fail because they ignore the simple truth of who drives prices and they attempt to predict price movement. But these systems each had a kernel of truth behind them, and I suspect that these kernels of truth finally reached a critical mass in my brain that resulted in my epiphany.

For the first time I am consistently profitable using an approach that I did not have to buy and is way more logical than anything I have ever seen. I now trade without fear, quite a novelty. I needed to be exposed to (and fleeced by) trading mentors/gurus until I discovered that the Holy Grail does exist but no vendor will sell it. No vendor/mentor that I have come in contact with has anything even close.

The purpose of this post is not to tease readers into buying a system that I will be selling at a later date (the only valid way to train a student to trade a system is to do it 1-1 in person with a live account). Its purpose is only to let them know that the Holy Grail does exist and can be found by all that persist. I am no genius. Here is some advice to facilitate its discovery.

I have never found a system vendor or mentor that could prove he traded live. Think about that.
There is only one reason why a vendor/mentor won’t divulge a live account statement.

Monitor posts daily at the forex factory forums. Many have helped because they have stimulated thought. Think about what should work and why. Never stop thinking.

James16 forum is worth the money if only for one month. Of all the systems that I studied, his is closest to the Holy Grail. His forum could put you on the right path. Sorry, Dial, but PIN bars are not reliable enough for me, but PA is king.

The more expensive the system, the more money spent on its marketing than its content. The most expensive system I bought was a fancy 5/13EMA crossover with an RSI filter. It had very nice packaging, though.

The primary requirements for successful live forex trading are courage and patience. The market is made up of traders with varying strength. This last statement is the key.

I hope this post was helpful. There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is only for the determined few. With persistence, just when you get completely fed up with discretionary systems, arcane indicators, and blowhard fraudulent vendors/gurus, the fog will clear and you, too, will find the Holy Grail.
Chance favors the prepared
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:44am Dec 6, 2007 10:44am
  •  tradingcube
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 31 Posts
Well done glad you have
Tell me one thing are you a discretionary trader or do you have a system you follow to the letter?
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:47am Dec 6, 2007 10:47am
  •  JohnW
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 127 Posts
Well done glad you have
Tell me one thing are you a discretionary trader or do you have a system you follow to the letter?


It is not discretionary in any way. It is a method that I follow to the letter. Always follow the long term (>daily) trend.
Chance favors the prepared
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:45am Dec 6, 2007 11:45am
  •  dagoods
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 3,046 Posts
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
The Holy Grail……..Found

I have been live trading forex exclusively for the last 4 years and losing consistently. I have spent thousands on what must be at least a hundred courses/systems. I even paid $2000 for a mentorship program from a trader that eventually was proven to be a fraud (I personally did the investigation). Nothing I ever tried worked consistently enough to generate the promised steady stream of income. I have read books from Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" to Horner's "Trading Forex" to Williams' "Trading Chaos". Nothing worked. I slowly have come to the decision that all forex system vendors/gurus are frauds (Birdwatching in Lion Country comes to mind).

Several months ago I purchased another valueless system that after purchase was found to be based on moving averages, Fibonacci, and divergences. Literally, at the same time that I felt duped again by purchasing this system, I had that famous "Ah-ha" moment that psychologists have talked about (and I never believed in). Quite suddenly I realized the correct way to trade. This epiphany was massively overwhelming. Since that day six months ago, I have solely traded my method, which incidentally uses only one indicator. Forget Fibonacci, forget pivots. How many more traders must proclaim that lagging indicators don't work before failing traders, like I was, believe them? I, for one, have passed that hurdle. I have had 6 losses in the 240 trades taken since I started using my method. Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!). It is both profoundly logical and simple. It is the result of subtle input from many systems that fail because they ignore the simple truth of who drives prices and they attempt to predict price movement. But these systems each had a kernel of truth behind them, and I suspect that these kernels of truth finally reached a critical mass in my brain that resulted in my epiphany.

For the first time I am consistently profitable using an approach that I did not have to buy and is way more logical than anything I have ever seen. I now trade without fear, quite a novelty. I needed to be exposed to (and fleeced by) trading mentors/gurus until I discovered that the Holy Grail does exist but no vendor will sell it. No vendor/mentor that I have come in contact with has anything even close.

The purpose of this post is not to tease readers into buying a system that I will be selling at a later date (the only valid way to train a student to trade a system is to do it 1-1 in person with a live account). Its purpose is only to let them know that the Holy Grail does exist and can be found by all that persist. I am no genius. Here is some advice to facilitate its discovery.

I have never found a system vendor or mentor that could prove he traded live. Think about that.
There is only one reason why a vendor/mentor won’t divulge a live account statement.

Monitor posts daily at the forex factory forums. Many have helped because they have stimulated thought. Think about what should work and why. Never stop thinking.

James16 forum is worth the money if only for one month. Of all the systems that I studied, his is closest to the Holy Grail. His forum could put you on the right path. Sorry, Dial, but PIN bars are not reliable enough for me, but PA is king.

The more expensive the system, the more money spent on its marketing than its content. The most expensive system I bought was a fancy 5/13EMA crossover with an RSI filter. It had very nice packaging, though.

The primary requirements for successful live forex trading are courage and patience. The market is made up of traders with varying strength. This last statement is the key.

I hope this post was helpful. There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is only for the determined few. With persistence, just when you get completely fed up with discretionary systems, arcane indicators, and blowhard fraudulent vendors/gurus, the fog will clear and you, too, will find the Holy Grail.
Ignored

median? pitchfork?
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:21pm Dec 6, 2007 12:21pm
  •  branco
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 236 Posts
I think I am on the same path that you are (although I'm probably lagging 6 months behind) and I must say I was inspired by feb and his thread "The System (Irony Included) here on FF in the "Trading Systems" section.

I haven't made a trade based on what I think I have learned on that thread, however I was already able to hold on 2 trades I would have taken with my previous system that consequently showed to be losers.

So even if I haven't profited from that mind set at least so far I have avoided some losses.

I hope everything continues to go well with your trading. Best of success to you.
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:35pm Dec 6, 2007 1:35pm
  •  JohnW
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 127 Posts
Quoting dagoods
Disliked
median? pitchfork?
Ignored

As I said in my post, I don't use any arcane indicators. I consider the pitchfork an arcane indicator. I strongly recommend spending at least a month with James 16. Study price action (PA) only, get rid of everything else off your chart, and just watch price action. I don't give any weight to PIN bars (I have found them unreliable), inside bars, reversal bars, outside bars, dojis, hammers, and all that stuff.

Ask yourself this: when price goes to a certain level and stops (forming an S/R level), why did it stop there? Who moved it there? Who will move it away from tha S/R level? And how does this all fit in with the long term trend?

Think about why an indicator works and you will see that there is no predictive value in them.
Chance favors the prepared
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:37pm Dec 6, 2007 1:37pm
  •  giusepp8
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 148 Posts
hi john ...

I've had studied j16 PA too ... and finally i understood that price is really the king on any market you trade.
Was wondering if the only indicator you use is for divergence ? ... ' cause i've been playing around for awhile hith divergence and it's giving good results.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:42pm Dec 6, 2007 1:42pm
  •  digimix
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 39 Posts
John are you willing to share your system with me?
I have been tading for 1.5 yrs and still not making money. And like you, I have spent thousands of dollars on courses, books and systems yet without results. Please, any help you can offer I am willing to learn.
pm me
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:21pm Dec 6, 2007 2:21pm
  •  JohnW
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 127 Posts
Quoting giusepp8
Disliked
hi john ...

I've had studied j16 PA too ... and finally i understood that price is really the king on any market you trade.
Was wondering if the only indicator you use is for divergence ? ... ' cause i've been playing around for awhile hith divergence and it's giving good results.
Ignored

I have not found divergence to be reliable. Divergence is a way of trying to predict market direction. Usually divergence is apparent after the market has made most of its move. If used as a "hint" to where prices might go, it can be useful (like a filter), but it is unreliable as a trigger. See my post #6. Time spent looking at charts without any indicators at all (including oscillators that can diverge with price) and asking question posed in that post will go a long way with what you learned from James16.
Chance favors the prepared
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:55pm Dec 6, 2007 2:55pm
  •  digimix
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 39 Posts
John thanks for the pm. I can't pm you yet as I still do not have enough posts. However I live in Jamaica. I have done what you asked on the post#6 and I am not sure what to look for. Buyers stop buying when the price reaches a certain point and sellers move in at that point taking the price lower and vice a versa. What size stop losses do you use? Could you post or send an example of what you see and why?
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:56pm Dec 6, 2007 2:56pm
  •  BDVtrader
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 19 Posts
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
The Holy Grail……..Found

Literally, at the same time that I felt duped again by purchasing this system, I had that famous "Ah-ha" moment that psychologists have talked about (and I never believed in). Quite suddenly I realized the correct way to trade. This epiphany was massively overwhelming....
Ignored
Thank you for your post! It certainly piqued my interest! I am left with still one question, though: what is "the correct way to trade"? In other words, how do you use PA, courage and patience to consistently profit in your forex trading?
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:03pm Dec 6, 2007 3:03pm
  •  giusepp8
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 148 Posts
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
I have not found divergence to be reliable. Divergence is a way of trying to predict market direction. Usually divergence is apparent after the market has made most of its move. If used as a "hint" to where prices might go, it can be useful (like a filter), but it is unreliable as a trigger. See my post #6. Time spent looking at charts without any indicators at all (including oscillators that can diverge with price) and asking question posed in that post will go a long way with what you learned from James16.
Ignored
yeap that's what i was talking about ... look if there is a divergence near a s/r zone to have a hint ... but never use it as a trigger ... just beware what PA is telling us. Actually your questions on post 6 are helpful.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:44pm Dec 6, 2007 3:44pm
  •  Mecks
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
good post john.............my eyes have been opened.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 4:17am Dec 7, 2007 4:17am
  •  tradingcube
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 31 Posts
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
Ask yourself this: when price goes to a certain level and stops (forming an S/R level), why did it stop there? Who moved it there? Who will move it away from tha S/R level? And how does this all fit in with the long term trend?
.
Ignored
You say you don’t use indicators; do you use any basic lines showing S/R etc?
In answer to your question; when a price moves to a certain level and stops it’s because the ratio of people buying and selling changed. Who moved it there? it was the people buying if were talking resistance or the people selling if were talking support and who will move it away, the opposite of those who moved it there in the first place. How does this fit in with the trend? In an up trend there will be a bias toward buyers over sellers.
Please feel free to correct me as im sure this is too simplistic.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 4:52am Dec 7, 2007 4:52am
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,096 Posts
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
I have been live trading forex exclusively for the last 4 years and losing consistently. I have spent thousands on what must be at least a hundred courses/systems. I even paid $2000 for a mentorship program from a trader that eventually was proven to be a fraud (I personally did the investigation). Nothing I ever tried worked consistently enough to generate the promised steady stream of income. I have read books from Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" to Horner's "Trading Forex" to Williams' "Trading Chaos". Nothing worked. I slowly have come to the decision that all forex system vendors/gurus are frauds (Birdwatching in Lion Country comes to mind).
Ignored
JohnW, my experiences (over about 6 years, in my case) parallel yours very closely. I've tested hundreds of failed technical systems, read dozens of books (including Bird Watching), spent 4 months with James16; and I totally agree that indicators, pivots, Fibos, line studies, candle patterns, pin-bars etc etc have minimal predictive value. I've tested enough systems to learn that virtually all fit into perhaps 3 or 4 basic categories (trend-following, top-and-bottom picking, breakouts, etc), with detail in timing entries and exits being the only real variation. I've given up trying because I'm fresh out of ideas, and I'm not very good at thinking outside of the squares. I've reached the conclusion that systems are ineffective not because of a lack of efficacy of the method, but because price movement is ostensibly random.

Quoting JohnW
Disliked
I have had 6 losses in the 240 trades taken since I started using my method. Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!).
Ignored
It's here that we must part company. Whatever I say will sound like sour grapes - hence I apologize - but it's very hard for me to believe that a Holy Grail exists (28,000+ members on this forum apparently haven't found it, or perhaps some are being very quiet ), or more especially that any method can deliver a 97.5% win rate (assuming there is also some risk management).

Let's do some simple math to illustrate: a 97.5% win rate means the probability of 10 successive losses is 0.025^10 which is less than 0.0000000000000001. So risking 10% of our account on each trade would be EXTREMELY conservative. Grossing up, we have 480 trades (including 12 losses) in a year. If we assume a 1:1 RR, then the annual return (using fixed fractional sizing) is 1.1^(480–12) / 1.1^12 x 100% = 1.1^456 x 100% = 750,005,472,272,750,582,200% p.a. No offense, but let's just say that's why a 97.5% win rate is difficult for me to grasp.

Quoting JohnW
Disliked
The primary requirements for successful live forex trading are courage and patience.....
Ignored
..... and a method that achieves a 50%+ win rate (or a high enough RR to compensate). Courage and patience would be a cinch with a 97.5% win rate. Like you say "I now trade without fear". If method brings confidence, then method is key.
Quoting JohnW
Disliked
Ask yourself this: when price goes to a certain level and stops (forming an S/R level), why did it stop there? Who moved it there? Who will move it away from tha S/R level?
Ignored
Sometimes price reverses significantly at S/R, sometimes it breaks out significantly, sometimes neither. Draw enough lines on a chart and a few will inevitably appear significant – in hindsight. "Who is moving price" and "who will move it away" from a given S/R is apparently the key to your "grail", but how can technicals possibly tell you this? Or are you privy to some other "secret" source of information? Has anybody got any ideas?

David
 
1
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:08am Dec 7, 2007 5:08am
  •  th_ngue21
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Longterm Investor | 193 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked

It's here that we must part company. Whatever I say will sound like sour grapes - hence I apologize - but it's very hard for me to believe that a Holy Grail exists (28,000+ members on this forum apparently haven't found it, or perhaps some are being very quiet ), or more especially that any method can deliver a 97.5% win rate (assuming there is also some risk management).

David
Ignored
I do have found my own Holy grail. I am one of the +28,000 members here A holy doesnt need to be 100% correct price predictions. As long as you are profitable at least +200% a year.

It is amazing that there are not so many profitable traders here. Yes some of them are very quiet. At least there are 1% profitable traders here right? That is 280 traders or far more than 1KT active people here?
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:18am Dec 7, 2007 5:18am
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,096 Posts
Quoting tradingcube
Disliked
You say you don’t use indicators; do you use any basic lines showing S/R etc?........
Ignored
TC, I'm only guessing here, but I think what JohnW might be saying is that (if we assume that technicals are his only road map) there is a way (momentum?, velocity?, timing? inherent in the PA) of determining who (commercials, heavyweight institutions, retail traders, etc) is moving price toward S/R points, and consequently who is most likely to move them away. Supposedly the "who" somehow gives a clue - perhaps when combined with the context of the daily trend - as to the probable result (reversal/breakout?, strength/speed of the move?).

Just a guess - it's all voodoo to me.

David
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:24am Dec 7, 2007 6:24am
  •  blueruby
  • Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Stock Broker, October 1987 | 1,299 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked

Just a guess - it's all voodoo to me.

David
Ignored
Voodoo -- I'm willing to try it....

I mean, most of us would just about sell our souls to get a system that -- just a minute, I'll be right back. The room is suddenly filled with smoke and a nasty sulfur smell....
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:17am Dec 7, 2007 7:17am
  •  tradingcube
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 31 Posts

I do love a good puzzle and forex provides me with one every pip of the way.

So whom is this 'who' then?
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2007 10:24am Dec 7, 2007 10:24am
  •  JohnW
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 127 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
TC, I'm only guessing here, but I think what JohnW might be saying is that (if we assume that technicals are his only road map) there is a way (momentum?, velocity?, timing? inherent in the PA) of determining who (commercials, heavyweight institutions, retail traders, etc) is moving price toward S/R points, and consequently who is most likely to move them away. Supposedly the "who" somehow gives a clue - perhaps when combined with the context of the daily trend - as to the probable result (reversal/breakout?, strength/speed of the move?).

Just a guess - it's all voodoo to me.

David
Ignored

David -

You have the concept, now with some thought you can design a method to utilize it. That is what I did.

JohnW
Chance favors the prepared
 
 
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