EURUSD

I got nervous too soon and jumped off when it started retracing for some very minor profit. Then I was stupid enough to go short @ 97.23, which I reversed @ 97.67 and finally closed @ 98.14. In the end, a lost opportunity with very little gain - what could have been a >$1K day finished only $140 up. Oh well, live and learn.

Wishing Everyone A Merry Christmas And A Happy New Year.
May The Year 2008 Bring Showers Of Green Pips To All Of Us.

Now that all the USD profit taking ahead of year-end should have come to an end, time to go long I think. Trichet is not letting up. I think he's serious about another rise. Am out till first week of next year. I seriously doubt we'll see USD strength again until election time when sentiments improve in general. None-the-less, I had a sweet week with this USD move

A huge dowtrend is coming for eur. In 2008 eur longs will be burned in hell. lol

Just my opinion.

Well, I'm not seeing that downtrend. I'm seeing 1.5.

give me your money.

Sure, I'll give you dollars, you give me Euros. Then we'll swap them in about 6 months.

What i really think, is that before eur will break again the 1.4967 level, it will go to hit a 1.34 / 1.3550 level, and it will happen in the 15-25 january (i don't know the exact day, but i guess it will happen from 15 to 25 of january), or, it may drop now in the next days (big drop!) hitting the 1.37 level BEFORE the 31/12 , in this case will not drop at 1.34, anyway a sure thing is that it will continue to drop, after that MAYBE (i really have no idea) it will go up again
Cannot take a short on this forecast because is insane to take a trade with a stoploss setted to 1.5 (650pips stoploss, a margin call will come first), anyway that is how i see the eur performing in jenuary, somebody think like me?

My 2 pips

you are close

its gonna drop but its headed for 550, thing is to ride the waves, lots of pips to be had and watch the yens next few weeks

1.34 ?

Am I the only one thinking you guys are on the effect of something nasty? I don't see it break much further than 1.41 and I'll be a buyer close to that area.

Maybe I'll change my mind when it gets there but I see no technical or fundamental reason to go even close to 1.34

AHahah, yes maybe you are right, maybe i've just writed bull@*#t

Anyway, right now i'm fully convinced (100%) that it will touch at least 1.38 level before break the resistance of december, but it have to do it within the next days (2-3 trading days), if not, a major support will call, and we will see 1.36 or 1.34 or lower!
(lol)

There's technical reasons for the drop, I can also see a bounce from 4300. 1.38/39 on the current angle of price movement and the supporting trendline is intact. But one would think that a retrace back to the 38.6 and the top of the 12/2004 top would be in order,but unless the bottom drops out next week, price would have to violate the supporting trend line to reach it.

how about the 29's, 61.8 retrace and the center fork median?

fwiw

MMmmm. interesting interesting, i'm looking your trendlines (that one that acted as a support from 1.17 area to now), i guess it is a possible scenario that in the next days price will drop drammatically, hitting the 1.38 level and closing ABOVE the 1.3850 level, this will give him the pullback that he is looking for (the price), and will also let it recharge his bullpower at the support trendline!
Who know, maybe!

US can't afford a strong dollar' all US has are exports to drive the economy at this point. Most American's are in serious financial trouble.

Wait until the Consumer Credit Collapse of of 2008 in grand ole USA. It will make Subprime look like a pittance...2.49 Trillion in Consumer Credit debt...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

A currency pair is just that the relationship between two currencies, the reason for the drop could result from a devalue of the euro and have nothing to do with the dollar. The ECB was dumping euros last week, do you think they do this without the other central banks knowing about it beforehand?

It is all carefully orchestrated, when one gets out of the acceptable range it starts to pull on the other basket of monies that economically relate, and measures are introduced to bring them back inline.

i am hearing lot of rumors in longing usd for 2008.

personally cant see it possible. for first time soon the rates of usa and europe are going going to be equal. and thats truly bad for usd with a slowing economy.

my opinion why the usd wont rally too much through this point and not in 2008 :

- housing bubble unwinding is gonna continue.
- consumer confidence is going to keep falling as inflation affects.
- credit squeeze is far from over and probably going to get worse in the first next year months.
- big chance usa enter a mild recession, not economic chaos but a serious slowdown.
- deficit is too high and a slowing economy is going the jeopardy external confidence investors to keep refinancing usa purchasing power and that means slowdown of usd demand.
- the diversification of currencies reserves in many countries which has not yet started and look this levels.
- oil being pushed further for pricing into euros, yen, yuans.
- the democrats are big positioned for winning and for some reason market dont like that.
- trichet is not going to allow the loss of confidence in the euro as a serious competitor for usd.
- china will threat usa in dumping dollars as pressure from washington increases for further yuan gains.
- the probably most important, usa needs a low value currency or the export market who is offsetting the housing slowdown is going to suffer and usa could enter inmediately into recession, the reaction of probably - gdp in the market could mean big usd sellofs and market confidence serious damaged.

and the last one, ABN Amro and Bank of America suddenly last week changed their positions of longing usd in 2008 and now they say the top pick is long euros. they commented about we saw in the last week price action was too like a correction, unwinding of positions for profits but not a rally the euro was keeping strong.
if fed keep doing what is doing and ecb remains hawkish and even threat to raise rates to contain inflation. $1.60 will be matter of months.

eu is great example of market discrepancy. the expensive question is where it is going to go?
suddenly 2 weeks ago everyone agreed about a 2008 usd rally, now just in a matter of days market is almost equal divided in 2 big blocks.

but in my opinion euro bulls portafolio is way more fat that usd bulls

When the US consumer throws in the towel, the Eurozone 600 Million consumer base will be the target of global economy..perhaps.

The lowering of interest rates is an illusion which cannot be kept and the feds know it. Unless the US drastically cuts it’s spending which it will not do, in the immediate future, the Feds will have to raise rates to attract offshore inflows, once this starts it’s a down hill spiral for the credit markets.

Imo, Europe and GB are in no better shape.

bellieve me, i bellieve in the favor and prosperity usa has brought to the world. the thing is even when the seems calmed there 2 weeks.

my fear is the tables are turned and europe has they key on their hands to decide the fate of usd.

since about 3 years ago even when i was not a currency trader, just saw how europe followed every usa move and they raised rates conservatly also they didnt allow excecess in credit cards and kept tight spending. and in my mind i told oh my god!. if the world is in a bubble debt and enjoying why the hell ecb guys are holding tight and bringing alarms for deficit reductions even when the deficits were low. these guys are behind something.

someday usa debt bubble is gonna explode and what will happen when the fed start to lower rates and the ecb dont follow??? this was the big question.

well my friends, we are here now and the ecb is not going to follow now.
they are prepared. and thats going to be be really really bad for usd.

i think ecb is not going to lower rates but also not raise them. they are behind for a plan to push the euro.

the current scenario is a toxic formula for usd and in my opinion this is going to intensify as usa lower rates and the ecb holds.
euro just will be so tempting to own. there is not doubt about.
currency virtually free of debt vs other being scrapped by debt and with lower rates on return.

where do you think then banks and goverments are going to keep the bucks?
think about it.

"Most American's are in serious financial trouble."

ROFL!!! What are you smoking? That's got to be the most ludicrous comment I've seen posted on these boards...