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NFP report

  • #61
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:29am Jan 5, 2007 8:29am
The January report can often be a huge one -- and cause a lot of "rethinking" about rates and stuff. But the bigger picture is that unless we get hot inflation, like a MOM increase to .4%, the Fed simply doesn't have the ammunition needed to raise rate. Manufacturing is still slowing, or not expanding at its breakneck pace. Housing is still not looking good. Oil is easing off. That should provide some PPI relief, which eventually filters into the CPI.

Wage growth is perhaps the last stand - if wages rise, that can lead to inflation reliably.

It's still more likely that the Fed stays on hold for now, unless we get a couple brutally high CPI readings -- .4% or more.
  • #62
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:35am Jan 5, 2007 8:35am
Great straddles, now I am riding it till the end.

Nice gold drop, did anyone catch that (except me)?
  • #63
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:36am Jan 5, 2007 8:36am
Quoting robbooker
The January report can often be a huge one -- and cause a lot of "rethinking" about rates and stuff. But the bigger picture is that unless we get hot inflation, like a MOM increase to .4%, the Fed simply doesn't have the ammunition needed to raise rate. Manufacturing is still slowing, or not expanding at its breakneck pace. Housing is still not looking good. Oil is easing off. That should provide some PPI relief, which eventually filters into the CPI.

Wage growth is perhaps the last stand - if wages rise, that can lead to inflation reliably.

It's still more likely that the Fed stays on hold for now, unless we get a couple brutally high CPI readings -- .4% or more.
Hi Rob,
Do you expect a breakout in EUR, GBP to the downside now?
  • #64
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:39am Jan 5, 2007 8:39am
My newstrading with auto-click feature didn't work with FXCM for both CAN and NFP employment report. However, I switched to OANDA for NFP and bagged around 50 pips using auto-click.
  • #65
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:45am Jan 5, 2007 8:45am
how do you think Bernanke's speech later today will go?
  • #66
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:56am Jan 5, 2007 8:56am
Quoting Goozman
Great straddles, now I am riding it till the end.

Nice gold drop, did anyone catch that (except me)?
riding $ strength or doing fib retracements?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #67
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:56am Jan 5, 2007 8:56am
May I ask what EA is that you use for straddeling?
  • #68
  • Jan 5, 2007 9:15am Jan 5, 2007 9:15am
All gurus and pundits have failed to predict NFP numbers but markets have predicted very well. See the charts of g/u or e/u from Wednesday and you know what I am talking about.

Lesson: Never look to gurus and pundits for NFP numbers, just look at markets to predict.
These too shall pass away.
  • #69
  • Jan 5, 2007 9:19am Jan 5, 2007 9:19am
Quoting fspirani
All gurus and pundits have failed to predict NFP numbers but markets have predicted very well. See the charts of g/u or e/u from Wednesday and you know what I am talking about.

Lesson: Never look to gurus and pundits for NFP numbers, just look at markets to predict.
go back and do research on this matter and see what the % of NFP went same direction as the week before it and i bet u will find it is not a good % but if it is above say 80% then get back to us otherwise that statement/ oppinion is useless no offence bro
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #70
  • Edited 9:56am Jan 5, 2007 9:23am | Edited 9:56am
Told you the ADP lowballed it.
If only it didn't make me too cautious. For such a big drop, I wonder how normal it is that on Cable, on 15min charts, the 2nd and 3rd candlesticks moved a maximum of 17pips, and then retraced to my 23.6% fibo. I wonder if we'll get a continuation of a downtrend today.

Well, I just saw my answer.
  • #71
  • Jan 5, 2007 11:58am Jan 5, 2007 11:58am
What happened to the follow through? Only a 100 pip move on the mother of all news releases? You would think with the revision and the original numbers both US positive, there would be a bigger move. A ton of resistance in the 1.9300-1.9285 area

Paul
  • #72
  • Jan 5, 2007 12:06pm Jan 5, 2007 12:06pm
Quote
I know Burger King posted some historical charts today (but that thread is closed), which is cool! Here is a link to every NFP chart:http://www.robbooker.com/NFP/charts.php
I think if moderator didn't remove Rob's link, I may post my historical charts for the major economic reports as well http://forexbarometer.com/news/nfp.asp
Ben
  • #73
  • Last Post: Jan 5, 2007 1:13pm Jan 5, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting Benf
I think if moderator didn't remove Rob's link, I may post my historical charts for the major economic reports as well http://forexbarometer.com/news/nfp.asp
Those are some great charts! Thanks for posting those!
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