The January report can often be a huge one -- and cause a lot of "rethinking" about rates and stuff. But the bigger picture is that unless we get hot inflation, like a MOM increase to .4%, the Fed simply doesn't have the ammunition needed to raise rate. Manufacturing is still slowing, or not expanding at its breakneck pace. Housing is still not looking good. Oil is easing off. That should provide some PPI relief, which eventually filters into the CPI.
Wage growth is perhaps the last stand - if wages rise, that can lead to inflation reliably.
It's still more likely that the Fed stays on hold for now, unless we get a couple brutally high CPI readings -- .4% or more.
Wage growth is perhaps the last stand - if wages rise, that can lead to inflation reliably.
It's still more likely that the Fed stays on hold for now, unless we get a couple brutally high CPI readings -- .4% or more.