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NFP report

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 4, 2007 10:59am Jan 4, 2007 10:59am
Here's a quick chart (attached) that shows the moving average for the Non Farm Payrolls. Each number / data point is the 12 month simple average, for the release -- not the revised number. I might work on one for the revised number as well if I have time today.

I know Burger King posted some historical charts today (but that thread is closed), which is cool! Here is a link to every NFP chart, for the USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD, for about the last 4 years, on the 15 minute and the 1 hour charts:

http://www.robbooker.com/NFP/charts.php

For the record, I am not trying to sell anything. These historical charts are free to download and you can send the link to as many people as you'd like.

I will post more thoughts about the NFP later today, including my thoughts about the report for tomorrow.
Attached Image
  • #2
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:14am Jan 4, 2007 11:14am
Hey this is good stuff. I am starting to warm up to Funndies. Helps me make better choices when I know which way the river is flowing.

LOL, Scott
  • #3
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:14am Jan 4, 2007 11:14am
Rob

Appreciate your detailed past NFP data. Actually a novice like me benefit immensely from this archive of price action around NFP. I would like to thank you again for that.

Best regards

Banda
BANDA333
  • #4
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:17am Jan 4, 2007 11:17am
Thanks for the link to the charts, and to your upcoming thoughts. Threads like these are immensely useful for newbies like me.

Keep them coming, please.
  • #5
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:24am Jan 4, 2007 11:24am
Quoting boycie
Things must be getting really bad when we see Booker talking about fundamentals...
Things aren't so bad! But I will say that the trend in the actual numbers is moving down, from the chart, and that ADP forecasts a negative number for the payrolls. It is going to be an exciting release at a critical stage in the Fed's interest rate cycle.
  • #6
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:36am Jan 4, 2007 11:36am
I'm an airhead. I didn't realize whose post I've been reading. I read the ebook.

Just using a laymens commonsense approach, I would think this, and the next NFP report would be good. Why? Christmas and the lower paid service/retail economy. Do they count part time employment people may take as second jobs or students in these numbers? I have a hard time believing that for Christmas the retail sector didn't prop up the reports.
And January when everyone gets their bonus the month before and finds a new job. I think some companies will wait until then to do hiring so it's in the next budget.

Anyone know where I can get a chart of the Actual numbers by month?
  • #7
  • Jan 4, 2007 12:07pm Jan 4, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting techno79
I'm an airhead. I didn't realize whose post I've been reading. I read the ebook.

Anyone know where I can get a chart of the Actual numbers by month?
Here is (attached) a spreadsheet with NFP numbers back to 1999 or so.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip NFP_Data_Formatted.zip   278 KB | 603 downloads
  • #8
  • Jan 4, 2007 12:07pm Jan 4, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting boycie
Whats your number Rob? (not your phone number)
My guess, and that's all it is right now, is 55,000.
  • #9
  • Jan 4, 2007 12:31pm Jan 4, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting robbooker
Here is (attached) a spreadsheet with NFP numbers back to 1999 or so.
Thank you. I just had the brainstorm to look at the forexfactory calender and was just about to post from that.

9 out of the last 12 months were BELOW forecast. raises some conspiracy theories on that, because the numbers were from low to high, and yet below forecast.

I think my previous idea is a little off. The years after 9/11, from 2001-2004 had negative actual numbers. I wouldn't think we're still stuck in the negative number slump this year. I don't believe we had an above forecast since 2000.
Forecast is 115k. Haven't had higher than that amount since the ninties except for 2005 for the month in question.

It's not exactly what you're looking for, not a strategy. I'm trying to grasp at straws to predict the picture. If we're below forecast, which we always seem to be, maybe we're not going to be drastically below forecast I'll guess. Too bad I didn't get the 1000pip strategy out of this little ramble.
  • #10
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:12pm Jan 4, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting robbooker
Here is (attached) a spreadsheet with NFP numbers back to 1999 or so.
rob just want to say thanks very nice stuff
  • #11
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:43pm Jan 4, 2007 4:43pm
...and if we'll get a downward revision on the November figures, $ selling might be huge... thoughts on possible revision?

Quoting robbooker
My guess, and that's all it is right now, is 55,000.
  • #12
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:49pm Jan 4, 2007 4:49pm
I learned a hard lesson from Last 3 months (won 2, lost 1): Bet on the Revision not on the NFP.

NFP has been very inaccurate for the pass 3-4 months and big traders are staying away from "inaccurate numbers". Revision is as accurate as you can get and therefore, trade on it.

NFP for month of Nov was 132K. I say this is on the up side. Many retail stores (such as Walmart) hired lots of "extra hands" last Nov to help with the huge Black Friday sales. However these "extra hands" are not counted on the NFP numbers, only the fixed jobs are counted.

Lastly, USD just regained some value vs GBP, EUR, JPY and CHF; perhaps a calming before the storm. A bad NFP and bad revision *could* drive USD down by as much as 150~200 pips. Be prepared for Friday's Big event!

NFP Previous: 132K
NFP Estimate: 115K

I am looking for the following scenarios:
1. NFP < 100K, Revision < 130K = USD Bear
2. NFP > 115K, Revision < 130K = Whipsaw, USD Bear
3. NFP < 100K, Revision > 135K = Whipsaw, USD Bull
4. NFP > 115K, Revision > 135K = USD Bull

Based on hunch, I am expecting scenario #1 to occur.


BTW: How can you get a negative NFP number? Last time I saw a negative NFP was months after Katrina in 2005. Does NFP include job firing too? ADP suggests -40K. Does that mean, there were more firing than hiring? I thought lossing of jobs was with the Unemployment/Initial Claims? Can anyone enlighten me on this?
  • #13
  • Jan 4, 2007 5:33pm Jan 4, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting BurgerKing
BTW: How can you get a negative NFP number? Last time I saw a negative NFP was months after Katrina in 2005. Does NFP include job firing too? ADP suggests -40K. Does that mean, there were more firing than hiring? I thought lossing of jobs was with the Unemployment/Initial Claims? Can anyone enlighten me on this?
I came on, and before posting saw yours. I'm sure I'm reinventing the wheel, but it looks like in the last 3 months the ADP number is about 20-30k off from the NFP. I also would think with Christmas the number should be decent. But -40k???? Just this alone has me stepping back right now. I think it's drastic, but I also thought ADP does a lot of the retail/holiday job payrolls too from previous experience.

When Mr. Booker put up a link to the last few years of NFP data, I went to 2003. I remember experiencing a cesspool economy that I'll call it along with many others. Lots of negatives. If Payroll means who's on the payrolls, then I can see it being negative. Your payroll shrunk, it went negative. Quitting, firings, layoff's, whatever.

We need to know if ADP lost a major account or something in their personal business realm. -40k sounds really lowballed.


Quote

"Given the steadily increasing importance financial markets are placing on the ADP National Employment Report, we've decided to expand its scope," said Victor Saliterman, ADP Senior Vice President, Marketing. "Beginning in early 2007, the Report will be based on a significantly larger sample size and provide insight into employment in Goods-producing and Service-providing industry sectors."

"Total nonfarm private employment declined 40,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report," said Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. "These findings suggest an abrupt slowing of employment, following three months during which, according to the ADP National Employment Report, gains in private nonfarm employment averaged 121,000 per month."



I think it's going to be off.



  • #14
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:04pm Jan 4, 2007 6:04pm
Another good read on this month's NFP here.
  • #15
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:41pm Jan 4, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting BurgerKing
BTW: How can you get a negative NFP number? Last time I saw a negative NFP was months after Katrina in 2005. Does NFP include job firing too? ADP suggests -40K. Does that mean, there were more firing than hiring? I thought lossing of jobs was with the Unemployment/Initial Claims? Can anyone enlighten me on this?
I don't think the unemployment numbers include people who don't want to work. So you can get a negative NFP without the Unemployment claims number giving a hint by having lots of retired people, or just taking a break from working without filing unemployment.
  • #16
  • Jan 4, 2007 8:34pm Jan 4, 2007 8:34pm
lots of good information at this site. With respect to the NFP figures, the hardest thing to guage is when there is a revision of previous figues. You think the number is bearish or bullish but its the revised figure that has all the meat. When the "Actual" is posted here, are the revisions, if any, noted. Also, is there any way to know beforehand if there are going to be revisions in the report? Are reivisons reported quarterly or its just a crap shoot?
  • #17
  • Jan 4, 2007 8:42pm Jan 4, 2007 8:42pm
Revision of the previous month are released at the same point with the current NFP...And I guess, no one knows if there will be any revision or not.
  • #18
  • Jan 4, 2007 8:43pm Jan 4, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting BIGMIK714
lots of good information at this site. With respect to the NFP figures, the hardest thing to guage is when there is a revision of previous figues. You think the number is bearish or bullish but its the revised figure that has all the meat. When the "Actual" is posted here, are the revisions, if any, noted. Also, is there any way to know beforehand if there are going to be revisions in the report? Are reivisons reported quarterly or its just a crap shoot?
It seems that whomever is compiling the stats for the BLS is always wrong about the initial release. The revisions are coming now every month, it seems, and they have been revising the numbers upward. you're right...the revisions have been having an affect on the market at the time of release each month. Like traders are reaction to the revisions for the previous month's release ... rather than the current release!

I am going to compile more of that information soon as well. It's a lot to take in, but I think it does help to at least get an idea for what's moving the market, what the trend in econ growth is, etc.
  • #19
  • Jan 4, 2007 9:09pm Jan 4, 2007 9:09pm
Quoting BurgerKing
BTW: How can you get a negative NFP number? Last time I saw a negative NFP was months after Katrina in 2005. Does NFP include job firing too? ADP suggests -40K. Does that mean, there were more firing than hiring?
yeah you can have negative number. NFP is the number of new jobs created during December. so if we lose jobs (more people got canned than hired) then you will get a negative number.

as for the number itself, i am seeing some wide speculation, especially after that adp number we got. everyone says "adp doesnt matter" (including me!), but if you look at what it does the market psychology its clear that it does "matter".

for me, the perfect storm tomorrow is the dollar gets crushed all morning, then we get a big upside suprise on NFP numbers. i want this because there are lots of dollar short positions right now, both long and short term, and if the NFP surprises to the upside that could create some panic amoung the dollar shorts, and an extended move along with it. whatever happens, i wont be in within the first 5 minutes, as usual i will just watch what the action then try to play the panic.

after all these years, NFP day is still the most fun day of the month
Relax and be happy.
  • #20
  • Jan 4, 2007 9:13pm Jan 4, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting robbooker
The revisions are coming now every month, it seems, and they have been revising the numbers upward. you're right...the revisions have been having an affect on the market at the time of release each month.
yeah i agree the revisions seem to be more frequent and bigger lately. i bet if we analyze the numbers we will find this is true, but not worth the time because there is no way to make money from that

btw, glad to see you joining the party rob
Relax and be happy.
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