Cable Update (GBPUSD)

back to the chart all. :

I'm still waiting - went long earlier, but got out @30 just in case price wants to shoot straight down. Still waiting to enter short though.

Here is a chart to think about

Goodthings, I'm holding out on a long until a break past 1.9535. Your thoughts? When are you looking to go short?
thanks

This was a powerful move coming from the top of the channel that we have been ranging in for some time. Long positions are at an extreme and I'm sure that there are still some that are holding on to leveraged positions at a huge loss after yesterday. While there exists the possibility of a move to the top of the channel, I still think this down move will complete the range. I,m not the biggest fan of fibos especially during certain market conditions, but cant deny that in a move like this, they are one of my favorites for determining target entries and exits when my setups occur at those levels. We have also had an outside day and are in the midst of an inside week followed by an outside week. Currently we are on the short side of that range, which typically would signal completion of the week on this side, not to mention first week of the year usually has a wide range. Personally, i still think we have more pips to go to the downside, but my perception may change depending on how price behaves today, not only if it closes down, but must close decisively so. The risk is that we have bounced off of the 200sma on the 4hr chart which could signal the end of this quick retracement and signal a move back to test the high of last year. If so, it will be interesting to see how momentum behaves along with open interest, etc. On a much longer term, it seems like the monthly's, if january leads the way will be turning, giving me an early impression that 2007 will either be a strong down year for sterling or may just stay within a tight longer term range all year.

Pickensrulz, if it makes you feel better my FOREX account manager friend is going LONG if it breaks the 1.9531 area targetting 1.9552-1.9570. Just passing it along................

I've kind of been stuck in a rut lately by not trading too much before 3 am maybe 315 am. I know that sounds funny but things have a tendancy to to go back and forth before then. I like to see it break past yesterdays low. Be giving up about 40 pips but looking at the pound to move one way or another 120 pips are more. Again not numerology just past history of what it does. So that gives me plenty of pips to catch. Target minumum of 50 but even up to 80. After a 200 pip move the average movement fot ht gbp the next day is 157 pips the average daily is 138 pips so it's not unreasonble to be looking at 50 or more pips after it moves 40 or so. Try to use a little logic with price action. By the way anybody know what the 4:30 am news is going to do to all of this.

Well the trend is still down.... So im confused on what to do.

If you dont mind me saying wait . Its hardly moved I think there is a good number of pips to catch today. Whats a good number? Kind of a generic term. But it range is only 25 pips from high to low.

wow there is a lot of news coming out

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>1:45am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CHF</TD><TD class=alt1>CPI m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.1%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.0%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3439 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3439 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>tentative </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>German Retail Sales m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.4%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-0.5%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3434 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3434 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>3:55am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>German Services PMI</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>56.9</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>56.8</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3440 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3440 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>4:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>Services PMI</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>57.5</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>57.6</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3441 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3441 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>4:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Services PMI</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>60.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>59.8</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3442 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3442 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>4:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Net Lending to Individuals m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>11.0B</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>10.9B</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3443 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3443 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>5:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>CPI m/m (p)</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.9%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.8%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3444 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3444 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>5:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Consumer Confidence</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-6</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-7</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3451 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3451 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>8:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CAD</TD><TD class=alt1>IPPI m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.5%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-0.1%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3418 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3418 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>8:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CAD</TD><TD class=alt1>RMPI m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.0%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-2.8%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3419 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3419 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>8:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Unemployment Claims</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>318K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>317K</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3420 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3420 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>10:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>58.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>58.9</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3421 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3421 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>10:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>55.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>55.6</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3422 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3422 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>10:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Factory Orders m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.5%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-4.7%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3423 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3423 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>10:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Crude Oil Inventories</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-8.1M</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3445 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3445 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>6:50pm </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>JPY</TD><TD class=alt1>Monetary Base y/y</TD></TR></THEAD></TABLE>

Well from todays low 9480... it has came up 50 pips to 9530. I just dont see this going up right now and I think thats good enough retracement. All my charts show a downtrend so Im going to have to short it. Hope I can get some pips. Good luck everyone im going to bed...

this bad boy may double bottom, but it has moved down too quickly to be able to sustain. There may be some profit and loss taking coupled with some speculative oscilator buying or it may just trade sideways until time(different timeframe speculators) comes into equilibrium with the move. There is a negative reversal forming on the 400 tick chart that has yet to confirm. A move up to 9550 would definitely bring more symmetry and only a move above 9595 on close would negate this scenario(this should hold due to the confluence of fibos underneath) - for this I am still bearish on the pair - Nevertheless I definitely see this pair retracing at least to 9540 in the minimum before resuming down forcefully. In fact, once this turns, short term, again to the upside, I will try to scalp another long position for quick pips.

Lastly a move up to the 9570 - 9580 area followed by a quick reversal would be my ideal setup. It is the hopes and dreams setup for all of the people that went long at or above that area. They refuse to take the loss and hold, some will be at b/e from their cost averaging, yet begin to think that they can steal a few dollars. Then this badboy turns quickly and fiercly on them and all of their hopes and dreams go out the door, this is the last push and they all decide to dump their positions. Those that don't need to refund their accounts. Be on the right side of this and, as horrible as it sounds, be the one to ride the coattails of those that kill hopes and dreams.

bought 2 lots @ 9491.

Sounds good to me. Don't dismiss the fact that enough time has passed to shake out weak longs from 19500.

hey l,

that would be a serious move to 19570 right now, almost 80 pips. are we doing a big ben???

whats a big ben?

L what is ur S/L and T/P?

that depends how you measure time. If you measure by seconds and minutes, perhaps, if measured by tick count, perhaps not.

sl = 9473 tp1 = 9501, tp 2 = 9535

Do u guys think the retrace is enough for another downturn?