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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #4,801
  • Jan 3, 2007 9:49pm Jan 3, 2007 9:49pm
Hey Mike,

I cross-replied you again, I'm not bagging your trade, I've got a free one short, but I entered it way up in the 97s. It's got a stop 30 pips in the black now, and I'm just going to let it go come hell or high water.

What criteria did you hit that trade on, however? I'm not taking new trades on this pair until I see a change, long or short, because it's sideways now. I have to see something convincing or I'm not risking my capital.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,802
  • Jan 3, 2007 9:52pm Jan 3, 2007 9:52pm
I know your not

If you rummage through this thread recently I have been playing the pound the same way over and over in this channel until price tells me otherwise. Unfortuantly I missed the DBHLC today off the top of the chan due to catching a bad fever yesterday. That erks me more then anything cause that was an easy as any trade.

Take care,
Mike
  • #4,803
  • Jan 3, 2007 9:56pm Jan 3, 2007 9:56pm
It really is ranging now, but I'm looking for a break either way. Forgive my rough manner of speaking, it's just my way...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,804
  • Jan 3, 2007 9:58pm Jan 3, 2007 9:58pm
another short trade is on the horizon from about 9535-9560 area to first target 9460 just waiting for setup
  • #4,805
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:06pm Jan 3, 2007 10:06pm
Quoting goodthings
Interesting Do you know what the gbpusd move on Jan. 3 of 2006. It move 278 pips. According to my daily it moved 270 pips today. The month of January last year there was over 700 pips different between the high and low. It was the beginning of an up trend with no real retracement. Here is a list of the 200 pip days last year.
Thanks. As always, you continue to provide this thread with nothing but 'good things'.
  • #4,806
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:18pm Jan 3, 2007 10:18pm
Hello everyone. I am new in the forex trading. Does the cable always have this kind of movement? Luckily the movement this morning gave me a few ticks. What is your advice for this kind of fluctuation in the future?

$$Trader$$
  • #4,807
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:30pm Jan 3, 2007 10:30pm
going to take a nap will return about 5am est.. small short position @9525 my plan now; waiting for price to drift higher to 9540 then trigger sell stop add another short position for first target 9460... hope it works


later guys
  • #4,808
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:35pm Jan 3, 2007 10:35pm
the cable moves quite a bit not normally 270 pips. Normally about half that give or 20 or 30 pips either way. Ask questions as you go and realise how fast you could lose money and protect yourself from this.
Quoting $$Trader$$
Hello everyone. I am new in the forex trading. Does the cable always have this kind of movement? Luckily the movement this morning gave me a few ticks. What is your advice for this kind of fluctuation in the future?

$$Trader$$
  • #4,809
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:39pm Jan 3, 2007 10:39pm
Quoting $$Trader$$
Hello everyone. I am new in the forex trading. Does the cable always have this kind of movement? Luckily the movement this morning gave me a few ticks. What is your advice for this kind of fluctuation in the future?

$$Trader$$

Hello and welcome,

if you are new I'll suggest you stay away from the cable. It's not unusual to see such kind of movements for that pair. Stick with some less volatile until you get the feeling of the market.

Good luck
  • #4,810
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:50pm Jan 3, 2007 10:50pm
Duke,

I've been trying to think how to phrase this question to you or anyone here. There are many people who think this market is zero sum but if that's the case then explain this to me..

I agree that for every leveraged position held there is another entity that holds the opposite position..i/e i have 3 lots long usd/jpy I have $300,000 in my portfolio and I have a debt of 35,805,000 yen as well and some other person (people) has the opposite Easy to understand. yes? This is what people think of as zero sum.

BUT

The question NOT being looked at is that there is value being created or destroyed? Meaning the complete valuation of ALL pairs is not constant.
Think big picture.

To help understand my point I'll illustrate using a large time frame. At one time the euro was valued at $.80 and the pound at $1.50. Now Investor A has a net worth of $1,000,000 in US bonds. Now his bonds come due and he converts them to Euros. Ignoring his return on the bond he profited approximately $625,000 from currency movements. Did someone else have to lose that money in that time span? The answer is no. The opposite could be true as well. It could be a negative or positive sum gain but it isn't fixed at zero.

Comments welcome. http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon7.gif
  • #4,811
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:52pm Jan 3, 2007 10:52pm
Quoting dukeofdents
BTW, I know this was a seriously overblown and reactionary move, but that's what happens when the big boys come back into it. It was a great way to stop trading off $250 accounts and get real, though. I decided to start the new year with some real money. I had this move in mind for a while, and when it showed itself I'm like a pig in shit that I had real money on it, my first trade on an actual multi-thousand dollar account with balls. The sickest part of all is that I slept last night and woke up to an executed limit order that was already like 95 pips in the black! I hope everyone else had fun as well!
Wasn't overblown, it was due, and it wasn't the big boys, they were already positioned short, look at COT and you will notice speculators were all long and not many left to buy. As far as 15 min or short term charts, I use them and picked this move as well, just as many did. I'm glad you made pips on your first "micro money" account, but theres no need to knock on other people and methods, if you read this thread earlier, you will find that you weren't the only one making pips and your entry wasn't as early as you give yourself credit. I'm not trying to be a prick and I'm surely not any kind of moderator, but in all honesty, your arrogance has no place in this thread. We are all here to help each other, not to put ourselves up on pedestals. Keep up the good work though, I'm sure your righteous attitude won't backfire.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,812
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:54pm Jan 3, 2007 10:54pm
here comes the second part of the chop chop.
  • #4,813
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:58pm Jan 3, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Mike,

I just call 'em as I see 'em. That might be bad in 4X but it looks like it's going to make me money so far. As far as being brash and asinine, I'm a Tennessee redneck mechanic, so what do you want? Post that chart, though, brother, you're keeping me in suspense...
So far is the key phrase sista.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,814
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:03pm Jan 3, 2007 11:03pm
Excuse the typo: Investor A has 1,000,000 worth of Euro bonds and converts them back to dollars.....
  • #4,815
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:07pm Jan 3, 2007 11:07pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Also, Mike, I diverge from most traders in that I believe that emotion is a tool, and if you don't get excited about winners and pissed about losers you miss something. I'm not an EA, and this is my money. It's food on my table. I won't fight the market to get it back like I'm a gambler, but our emotion is very important. I value and embrace it. If I have discipline, which is another subject, it actually strengthens me. To ignore your emotions in trading means that you repress them, and when you repress them they will come out with a vengeance sooner or later. Manage emotions, but feel them and be them. You absolutely should feel good when you make a killer trade. You absolutely should feel bad on a loser, as well.
What you say you should do is a extremely myopic perspective. You don't supress your emotions and nobody is saying you should, rather, just like any art or science, repetition will take care of them. I don't get ecstatic on a "killer" trade because it is one trade. Same goes for a loser. When you have been there 1000 times before and will be there 1000 times more, you no longer go crazy over the individual trade. No one trade makes or breaks you, it is the overall performance that you should focus on. To put it in redneck terms, after sodomizing your sheep 1000 times, it no longer excites you each and every time, but if you didn't consistently bust a nut, you would probably find something else to get you off.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,816
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:08pm Jan 3, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting dukeofdents
It really is ranging now, but I'm looking for a break either way. Forgive my rough manner of speaking, it's just my way...
If you are not intelligent enough to change it even though you realize it, then you will probably get killed in forex.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,817
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:10pm Jan 3, 2007 11:10pm
Whats going on in here?? Shouldnt we be trying to see where this market is going?
trading on demo is not trading
  • #4,818
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:12pm Jan 3, 2007 11:12pm
I apologize to you all for my rants
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,819
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:13pm Jan 3, 2007 11:13pm
Here is a chart to think about
Attached Image
  • #4,820
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:14pm Jan 3, 2007 11:14pm
Ditto to enzo. I've got to see a break above 1.9575 to go LONG and break below 1.9486 to go SHORT personally. That's just my conservative training taking hold.
Show me the PIPS!
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