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Trading the Supermodel Indicator

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 10:56pm Dec 6, 2007 8:31am | Edited 10:56pm
Since the famous Gisèle Bündchen statement regarding the Euro, we've seen about 300 pips of Euro depreciation. Gisele's occupation is listed as "supermodel", hence the nifty indicator name. It's another in a long line of excellent contrarian indicators to use when trading in all types of markets.

There are other good indicators I use to trade contrariwise also, like the "cabbie" and "grandma" indicators. My grandma recently asked me if she should make an investment in China so what I did was immediately close out my long China ETF.

Not that I disagree with my pal Jim Rogers, but even he admits to being a bad short term trader. So I'll wait for the next mini crash in China to get long again because the longer term Chinese prospects are excellent, as he has recently pointed out in his new book.
  • #2
  • Dec 6, 2007 8:49am Dec 6, 2007 8:49am
LOL!! good one, i will have to borrow it!

btw, ive been noting the same thing recently (just didnt have a fancy name

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...40#post1737548
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:04am Dec 6, 2007 10:04am
Heh, nice one. We've all been saying this same thing for a while, check out Darkstar's post a month back or so, although usefulness in trading is not optimal of course. When you're at all time lows, the keyword is "lows". Our whole goal in trading anything that can be traded on an exchange is to buy low and sell high, so it is not exactly difficult to see that when there is a consensus - even from cab drivers and supermodels and crazy Persian presidents- that you are at a low, going lower becomes less of a probability.

Still is easy to be off by thousands of pips, so I happily stick to my H4 and daily charts and wish the supermodels all the best
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:48am Dec 6, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Plutonite
Heh, nice one. We've all been saying this same thing for a while
yeah its the same ole cycle really... now is the point where the old timers call a bubble. and we are usually 4-6 months early:

btw, i agree that the supermodel indicator is not a stand-alone indicator. my main interest in the big picture trend is so i can properly select the strategies to trade
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:57am Dec 6, 2007 10:57am
LOL just saw Vikrant call it the “Magazine Cover Indicator”

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...72#post1747066
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:48am Dec 6, 2007 11:48am
I'll shed some light on this for those that aren't familiar with contrarian theory.

It's easiest to understand using a stock as an example: if you're the last one to hear about a hot stock, then there's no more money left buying it. Re-stated, if EVERYONE agrees it's great, then all the money is in, so it can't go up any more.

If Giselle knows the dollar is falling, then EVERYONE must know now.

Reminds me of a close friend who decided that the market was just going to keep on going up, it was definitely safe, he'd missed out long enough, and so he borrowed $20,000 on a promotional rate credit card and invested in tech stocks - in March 2000. Perfect contrarian timing. Made $1200 the first week, and that was it.
  • #7
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:17pm Dec 6, 2007 12:17pm
Obviously I'm being tongue-in-cheek here, but it proves the point that everything old is new again.
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:17pm Dec 6, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting blueruby
I'll shed some light on this for those that aren't familiar with contrarian theory.

It's easiest to understand using a stock as an example: if you're the last one to hear about a hot stock, then there's no more money left buying it. Re-stated, if EVERYONE agrees it's great, then all the money is in, so it can't go up any more.

If Giselle knows the dollar is falling, then EVERYONE must know now.

Reminds me of a close friend who decided that the market was just going to keep on going up, it was definitely safe, he'd missed out long enough, and so he borrowed $20,000 on a promotional rate credit card and invested in tech stocks - in March 2000. Perfect contrarian timing. Made $1200 the first week, and that was it.
Yep
  • #9
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:18pm Dec 6, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting merlin
LOL just saw Vikrant call it the “Magazine Cover Indicator”

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...72#post1747066
Anyone have an EA for this...lol
  • #10
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:56pm Dec 6, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting merlin
LOL just saw Vikrant call it the “Magazine Cover Indicator”

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...72#post1747066

That actually worked for the internet bubble. It also worked for the USD - after I closed the last USD long today I realized that our local "Spiegel" magazine's title cover was "the crashing dollar - is it a threat to the world" or similiar.
Haven't looked at the publishing date yet, but would be funny if it coincided with the 1.49xx EURUSD area.

However the "normal people" indicator only works so far - my Mom wanted to buy USD once we went above 1.45. Maybe she missed her calling as a long term fund manager! ;p
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #11
  • Edited 6:09am Dec 7, 2007 2:13am | Edited 6:09am
I just checked. The title page here on that mag was from 26th November.
Basically the Monday after EURUSD's peak. Yes, it's THAT good an indicator
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:16am Dec 10, 2007 11:16am
simply amazing.

it really shouldnt be that surprising how good of an indicator human reactions can be. afterall, it is humans behind every order. i guess the lesson to be learned here is that if everyone is predicting the same thing, its most likely not going to happen. now if i could only find a way to short global warming LOL.
Relax and be happy.
  • #13
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:28pm Dec 10, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting merlin
simply amazing.

it really shouldnt be that surprising how good of an indicator human reactions can be. afterall, it is humans behind every order. i guess the lesson to be learned here is that if everyone is predicting the same thing, its most likely not going to happen. now if i could only find a way to short global warming LOL.
This guy's idea of a global warming stop loss / emergency margin call is pretty cool. Similiar ideas have been kicked around for a while I think

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/192
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #14
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:46am Dec 11, 2007 1:46am
Quoting merlin
now if i could only find a way to short global warming LOL.
You can! They might be working on a way to securitize global warming. Think of the carbon trading market in Europe as a result of Kyoto and the new one being developed in the US (backed by the Governator of California himself). It's a big step in that direction. What a crazy world.
  • #15
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:20am Dec 11, 2007 7:20am
Quoting SeekingLight
This guy's idea of a global warming stop loss / emergency margin call is pretty cool. Similiar ideas have been kicked around for a while I think

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/192
Interesting video. I like how he uses a chart from 1990 to present. That would be like using a 1 minute chart to predict where the dollar will be a year from now.

His arctic sea ice chart is just for this year.... and just for a certain location.

These guys are very selective about their time scales and which data to present, in order to support their opinion.

Global temperatures fell so much between the 30's and the 70's (when manmade CO2 was on a steep climb) that the same scientists were predicting we'd be in an ice age by now. One proposed solution was "deliberate melting of the polar ice caps".
  • #16
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:03am Dec 11, 2007 11:03am
Quoting blueruby
Interesting video. I like how he uses a chart from 1990 to present. That would be like using a 1 minute chart to predict where the dollar will be a year from now.
His chart is of CO2 concentrations - not temperatures. The assumption is already made that high CO2 concentrations contribute to climate change beyond the natural cycles. So a chart showing a steady increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere over the past 17 years is NOT the same as using a 1 min. chart to predict where USD will be next year. Sorry.


Quoting blueruby
His arctic sea ice chart is just for this year.... and just for a certain location.
The arctic sea ice chart covers 1 very LARGE area of the world and he uses 1 year to compare it with the MINIMUM over a range of earlier years and to show the DRAMATIC difference.


Quoting blueruby
These guys are very selective about their time scales and which data to present, in order to support their opinion.

Global temperatures fell so much between the 30's and the 70's (when manmade CO2 was on a steep climb) that the same scientists were predicting we'd be in an ice age by now. One proposed solution was "deliberate melting of the polar ice caps".
In any case, he is not out to prove that "global warming" is real. He is just trying to present some ways of dealing with it (albeit some pretty weird ways). Anthropogenic climate change is no longer in the "let's debate whether it exists or not" stage. It does exist insofar as science is able to tell.

And even if it doesn't, and there is no merit to the climate change theory, is it really such a bad idea to try and conserve, to minimize pollution, to minimize the unpredictable changes we are making to a very delicate chemical equilibrium that is our atmosphere? To err on the side of caution is usually the prudent approach to anything that could arguably be the worst threat ever to face humanity.
  • #17
  • Edited 10:07pm Dec 11, 2007 8:42pm | Edited 10:07pm
energy price will goes up and up, then most human can't afford to pollute the earth, hahaha..... ha
(oh sorry, just a nobb comment )

how to get around some protocol:
if a company can't erect a factory because of emission control, they may consider to build it on other country which is using loose/ no emission control, and they still being called as a good investor too....
under different name if necessary,
or they just buy the product , and stamp some label
  • #18
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:37pm Dec 15, 2007 4:37pm
Quoting fierceman
You can! They might be working on a way to securitize global warming.
yeah i think the CME has some eniornmental futures products. anyone ever traded them?
Relax and be happy.
  • #19
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:40am Dec 16, 2007 1:40am
Quoting merlin
yeah i think the CME has some eniornmental futures products. anyone ever traded them?
If there's any way to go long on water - I'd dive right in. Water is going to be the most valuable resource on the planet very soon (it already is in many places).
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #20
  • Dec 16, 2007 11:24am Dec 16, 2007 11:24am
Quoting merlin
yeah i think the CME has some eniornmental futures products. anyone ever traded them?
We traded them when I worked on the trading floor of an electric utility. It was a good way to hedge unexpected temperatures and subsequent electricity demand. I'm sure that farmers are interested in the weather derrivitives as well. We even traded emissions credits. Just about anything can be traded these days.
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