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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #41
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:07am Dec 8, 2007 6:07am
John please could you train me? I need a mentor.
  • #42
  • Edited 8:46am Dec 8, 2007 6:15am | Edited 8:46am
Hi...


I agree...nobody has to come onto this forum or any other and prove themself........UNLESS they are making wild claims to success...and claims dont get any wilder than claiming a trader has found the Holy Grail.

And by using JohnW's own standards to find a scam(not saying this is )..questions need answering :
Quote:
"Having been the victim of several forex training scams, I have put together a profile of what a forex training fraud is. These characteristics appear frequently.

1..Claims of many years (typically >20 years) of trading experience. Make them prove it.

2..Claims of “wanting to give back and help others”. Bullshit. This business is about money only."

Quote

Anyway I have said all I am going to on this.....I will say... guys if it sounds to good to be true it usually isn't.
  • #43
  • Edited 10:45am Dec 8, 2007 6:54am | Edited 10:45am
Angler, many people in my country think the same thing about forex :- "if it seems to good..." The reason why they think it is because they do not know. One fund manager here pays out an average of 10% per month to his clients and has never had a month of loss since 9/11. Now if that is not the holy grail then it is still good enough for me. So while others argue in disbelief I just allow this trader to trade my money and I have been enjoying the fruits of his labour. At the same time I am trying to learn the forex to be able to do the same thing. Now about JohnW's holy grail. I belive if it is possible to have 234 out of 240 trade successful. It is quit easy if you use incorrect risk proportions like 10 pip target to a 500 pip stop loss. the probability of your target getting hit before your stop loss is hit is very high. However it will take 50 successfull trades to make up one loss that will inevitably come. So can it be successful in the short term? Absolutely! Can it be successful long term probably not. And that is the point, we want something that will pay the bills month after month as full-time traders.Not mearly a great month or great weeks. I personally know a trader who is right on his trading entries only 20% of the time and he makes close to $100,000 a month consistently. So success is a function of the risk to reward ratio, he uses 1:10 so even though he has many loses they are small while he lets the winners run like horses. That takes strong guts! I am still learning.
  • #44
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:16am Dec 8, 2007 8:16am
I really like this thread.

What David and John have been saying is right in line with the direction I've grown to as a trader.

John is a few big leaps ahead of me, but lately I've been doing everything he's said - ignore the indicators, use S/R, breakout/bounce, price momentum/strenth of movement.

Along with that I've learned to wait for an A trade, with an entry that can have a close stop, although I seldom let a stop get hit, again based on what price is doing.

I've learned to ride a move until it stalls then watch and feel and decide whether to take profit or hold. I do look at 15 minute charts, or lower during fast moves, but usually they just scare me and I go back to the 30 minute and forget what I saw!

So I guess you could say I use the same old basic rules, with lots of discretion based on real-time price action.
  • #45
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:21am Dec 8, 2007 8:21am
Hey guys, I rarely post but I've enjoyed reading this thread until the ignorance that seems to lurk around forums shows it's frustrated trading head and demands a response by those that want to hear more.

The fact is, there is no "one Holy Grail". There are many. The mistake that gets made is this...... the people that find things that work well for them are soooo excited they want to share, and by doing so they indicate they have the only Holy Grail (even though they didn't actually say it). Others that have built a system of 60/40 and sound money management are offended by such a claim. I'm not bad mouthing money management, but in most cases it's the only way to make these other systems work.(good money management works with a coin flip)

I'm strictly a fib trader (projected s/r) and the only losses I suffer now are due to operator error,PA and s/r doesn't fail.....I do (which is why there isn't a 100% trading methodology) (Holy Grail? Maybe?)

The reason I like this type of thread is- it's one of the few that can actually help people learn HOW to trade (whether they realize it now or not). For instance, I have yet to see anyone on this forum draw a fib (on purpose) where it is designed to be drawn from due to price action and s/r.

Just so everyone knows this, there is s/r on every level from tick-monthly and they all have the same pattern just smaller. Price needs to go where it needs to go, it has levels it needs to touch before it can go somewhere else. ALWAYS! Anyway.....

I am very interested in what this thread has to offer and if "others"on this forum wouldn't spend their efforts debunking someone else's efforts, we just may get to the point of learning something we didn't know before!

Seriously, what is the worst that can happen, what are you afraid of? He is basically saying you need to study PA (which is the key) how do you sell studying?

I have thought about teaching Fibonacci on this forum, but it seems that for the few that would work hard to get what I'm teaching, the masses of ignorant people will become overwhelming and well outweigh the positive efforts. FYI I trade with a fib tool with 3 levels and NO indicators, John is right, but I'd like to find out how "he" got there.

The Holy Grail isn't something you find...it's something you make.

The message I offer is this, THERE IS A HOLY GRAIL! ?To not pursue it is the only mistake you can make. I knew nothing 4 years ago. You all can do it.

I'm on board with you John, keep forging forward if you can. I'm interested and so are other traders (successful ones to).

In fact if you decide to withdraw your efforts here PM me and let me know how it goes. We may be able to help each other. Take care.
Robonacci com
  • #46
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:25am Dec 8, 2007 8:25am
Quoting JohnW
The Holy Grail……..Found

I have been live trading forex exclusively for the last 4 years and losing consistently. I have spent thousands on what must be at least a hundred courses/systems. I even paid $2000 for a mentorship program from a trader that eventually was proven to be a fraud (I personally did the investigation). Nothing I ever tried worked consistently enough to generate the promised steady stream of income. I have read books from Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" to Horner's "Trading Forex" to Williams' "Trading Chaos". Nothing worked. I slowly have come to the decision that all forex system vendors/gurus are frauds (Birdwatching in Lion Country comes to mind).

Several months ago I purchased another valueless system that after purchase was found to be based on moving averages, Fibonacci, and divergences. Literally, at the same time that I felt duped again by purchasing this system, I had that famous "Ah-ha" moment that psychologists have talked about (and I never believed in). Quite suddenly I realized the correct way to trade. This epiphany was massively overwhelming. Since that day six months ago, I have solely traded my method, which incidentally uses only one indicator. Forget Fibonacci, forget pivots. How many more traders must proclaim that lagging indicators don't work before failing traders, like I was, believe them? I, for one, have passed that hurdle. I have had 6 losses in the 240 trades taken since I started using my method. Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!). It is both profoundly logical and simple. It is the result of subtle input from many systems that fail because they ignore the simple truth of who drives prices and they attempt to predict price movement. But these systems each had a kernel of truth behind them, and I suspect that these kernels of truth finally reached a critical mass in my brain that resulted in my epiphany.

For the first time I am consistently profitable using an approach that I did not have to buy and is way more logical than anything I have ever seen. I now trade without fear, quite a novelty. I needed to be exposed to (and fleeced by) trading mentors/gurus until I discovered that the Holy Grail does exist but no vendor will sell it. No vendor/mentor that I have come in contact with has anything even close.

The purpose of this post is not to tease readers into buying a system that I will be selling at a later date (the only valid way to train a student to trade a system is to do it 1-1 in person with a live account). Its purpose is only to let them know that the Holy Grail does exist and can be found by all that persist. I am no genius. Here is some advice to facilitate its discovery.

I have never found a system vendor or mentor that could prove he traded live. Think about that.
There is only one reason why a vendor/mentor won’t divulge a live account statement.

Monitor posts daily at the forex factory forums. Many have helped because they have stimulated thought. Think about what should work and why. Never stop thinking.

James16 forum is worth the money if only for one month. Of all the systems that I studied, his is closest to the Holy Grail. His forum could put you on the right path. Sorry, Dial, but PIN bars are not reliable enough for me, but PA is king.

The more expensive the system, the more money spent on its marketing than its content. The most expensive system I bought was a fancy 5/13EMA crossover with an RSI filter. It had very nice packaging, though.

The primary requirements for successful live forex trading are courage and patience. The market is made up of traders with varying strength. This last statement is the key.

I hope this post was helpful. There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is only for the determined few. With persistence, just when you get completely fed up with discretionary systems, arcane indicators, and blowhard fraudulent vendors/gurus, the fog will clear and you, too, will find the Holy Grail.


Look dude,

Do you really think you have found a holy grail? I think you have not found it yet!

Let me explain why;
You have said you have tried 4 years long and lose your monthly consistently right? That means you have lost your money very much lets say ±10,000? and then.... in the mid 2007 the market began to trending and you are profitable like never before. Even a monkey can make money that time without looking to the charts.

Now the less important for you is: Why do you want to teach people, when you have become profitable for less than 6 months after hard work by losing 42 months?? You need to gain experiences first.

If you think you have found the holy grail, why do you not trade with the borrowed money from banks? Let say if you have a house and work, you can at least borrow the money for 9% interest right? If you make +50% a year, then you are profitable right?

Ok, I think you just want to earn your losing money back by doing teach people for free, a so called "free trail or free demo" and then charge them for a small fee.

If you really have a holy grail then you should keep it yourself and be quiet or go impress your real life friends. Come here to FF and make some fun. There is a lot to do in real life than wasting your time by teaching lazy people for "free"
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #47
  • Edited 12:23pm Dec 8, 2007 8:30am | Edited 12:23pm
I'd like to clear up one misconception - "more buyers than sellers".

There are always an equal number or buyers and sellers. There has to be. If someone buys, there was a seller, and vice-versa.

Now, if there is a BIG player for example, with a very big limit order to sell the GBP/USD at 2.0300 or 310, then you'll get something like what we saw on 12/5 and 12/6. When price reaches that level, market orders are filled at that (market) price, and until that big limit order is fully filled, price can not go above that level.

Obviously, it can also be many smaller orders lined up at a price the market agrees is a good one.
  • #48
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:34am Dec 8, 2007 8:34am
Quoting th_ngue21

You have said you have tried 4 years long ...

... after hard work by losing 42 months??

4 years would be 48 months.

There are 12 months in a year, and 4 x 12 = 48
  • #49
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:44am Dec 8, 2007 8:44am
Quoting th_ngue21


Look dude,

Do you really think you have found a holy grail? I think you have not found it yet!
This is what I'm talking about. You really haven't a clue what John is doing - just a negative opinion and if you were a successful trader you would sit back and listen or help.

So, my suggestion would be for "people" to ask questions that might lead to some answers or just listen! What harm can come from that?

If John is the biggest scammer in the world (which I don't believe) I have a hard time figuring out how this hurts me like it obviously is hurting you.

If you base an opinion on the the fact that John couldn't trade himself out of a wet paper bag in the past, therefore he can't trade now, that pretty much puts every trader in the world under that statement. Unless maybe like yourself you were born a successful trader.
Robonacci com
  • #50
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:54am Dec 8, 2007 8:54am
Quoting blueruby
4 years would be 48 months.

There are 12 months in a year, and 4 x 12 = 48
Ok lets say he lost 5% a month. He has 48 losing months. 4 years ago there are no mini-lots to trade. So I think his starting capital is $10,000 for trading 1 full lots by a bucket shop broker.

Ok simple math:

His ending capital after 48 losing month is: $10,000 x 0,95^48 = $853.
He need to earn at least $9147 or 50% per month in 6 months to claim that he has found a holy grail!

I think he has lost more money that $10,000 because 1 full lots require a lot of margin 4 or 3 years ago.

Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #51
  • Dec 8, 2007 9:03am Dec 8, 2007 9:03am
Hi...


Lets not get confused here about someone claiming to have the Holy Grail of trading.....and someone who is a successful trader...

The claim here is a system/trading method that almost never fails.....
  • #52
  • Dec 8, 2007 9:26am Dec 8, 2007 9:26am
Quoting digimix
Angel, many people in my country think the same thing about forex :- "if it seems to good..." The reason why they think it is because they do not know. One fund manager here pays out an average of 10% per month to his clients and has never had a month of loss since 9/11. Now if that is not the holy grail then it is still good enough for me. So while others argue in disbelief I just allow this trader to trade my money and I have been enjoying the fruits of his labour. At the same time I am trying to learn the forex to be able to do the same thing. Now about JohnW's holy grail. I belive if it is possible to have 234 out of 240 trade successful. It is quit easy if you use incorrect risk proportions like 10 pip target to a 500 pip stop loss. the probability of your target getting hit before your stop loss is hit is very high. However it will take 50 successfull trades to make up one loss that will inevitably come. So can it be successful in the short term? Absolutely! Can it be successful long term probably not. And that is the point, we want something that will pay the bills month after month as full-time traders.Not mearly a great month or great weeks. I personally know a trader who is right on his trading entries only 20% of the time and he makes close to $100,000 a month consistently. So success is a function of the risk to reward ratio, he uses 1:10 so even though he has many loses they are small while he lets the winners run like horses. That takes strong guts! I am still learning.
would love top know which Managed A/c you're referring to.....10% monthly compounded for a few years will be downright scary !
  • #53
  • Dec 8, 2007 11:41am Dec 8, 2007 11:41am
Findcount, you are right, in fact, I have had this account manager trading 2 accounts for me for the past 2 years. One that is compounding (which now is over 9 times that which I started it with) and the other I take part of the the gains monthly (this has now been even more than the total I have invested in the first place). My goal is to be earning 12 times my regular salary monthly. It now lies at about 8 times!
  • #54
  • Dec 8, 2007 11:52am Dec 8, 2007 11:52am
Quoting JohnW
Craig -

Like many, I spent years looking for something that worked. My method uses primarily S/R levels and long term trends. S/R levels are determined by swings and trend lines. As David suggests, I trade intraday. I typically find 2 -4 trade setups per day, and sometimes all are triggered, sometimes none. I enter on the 30M exclusively. I never look at anything under 30M. I have been successful on all the major pairs (the 6 majors & EUR/JPY - I don't trade the GBP/JPY).

The golden truth is that trading with multiple indicators is doom. Multiple time frames are important. That's why I highly recommend taking off all indicators except maybe (big maybe) one or two moving averages to measure bias. My trigger is based soley on price action. PA & S/R IS ALL YOU NEED (plus common sense, courage, patience, and an eye on fundamentals/news items).

You need courage to risk $$ (even my method has losses) and patience to wait for good setups. BTW, I NEVER EVER enter a market order (that's a clue). I use only stop orders.

When you look at a chart, do you need an indicator to tell you if its trending?

As I said in my post, reading many of the posts in this forum is great because they make you think. Take a look at any chart 30M or larger time frame. Ask yourself this: where will price NOT go? Why not? Where do you think the stop orders are?

I could lay out exactly what I do, but here's the problem: its accepted by most that 2 people given the same method will have very different results. The fact is that there is no substitute for thinking and discovering what works in trading. This forum has tons of resources (folks like James16) that taken in context are very useful.

So throw out all the elegant colorful indicators. Get used to a "naked" chart and trade (demo) off it. You will probably find after a few weeks that indicators hide more than they reveal and that they can only be useful as weak guides.

I am now attempting to train 2 people in this method. I train them in person with my live account up and running. I don't believe that truly successful traders should charge for a method (I am not charging my students), and if they are successful, I will consider making a .DOC file available for those on this forum who are interested. In teaching my 2 students, I will learn which concepts are grasped readily and which are difficult. They have no prior trading experience.
Hi JohnW,
Thanks for your reply, but I'm not really sure how it relates to my post, I never advocated the use of multiple indicators or small time frames. I use statistics & automation for my trading and I'm quite happy with it, my post was more a warning not to newbs not to get caught up in unsupported hype.
I think it's time I stepped aside and watched this train leave the station.
Cheers
Craig
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #55
  • Dec 8, 2007 12:15pm Dec 8, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting blueruby
I'd like to clear up one misconception - "more buyers than sellers".

There are always an equal number or buyers and sellers. There has to be. If someone buys, there was a seller, and vice-versa.

Now, if there is a BIG player for example, with a very big limit order to sell the GBP/USD at 2.0310, then you'll get something like what we saw on 12/5 and 12/6. When price reaches that level, market orders are filled at that price, and until that big order is fully filled, price can not go above that level.

Obviously, it can also be many smaller orders lined up at a price the market agrees is a good one.
The question is, "what happens next?"

So, our BIG player wants to be short, and they've gone short, let's say, a couple billion dollars worth. I'm certain it would take at least that to hold the G/U for two days, probably more like 100's of billions.

So if big trader is short a few billion units, and the price finally starts to fall, it doesn't hurt him any to buy back 100 million, and pick up millions of dollars profit on the short, without even diminshing the position significantly. So he buys it back as it comes, taking partial profit and halting downward price movement.

In the meantime, all us little fish have gone short based on the resistance bounce and downward price action. Price went down, some traders take profit on shorts, big trader buys it up, as price heads back up to the R. More traders close shorts on the way up. Most had a wider profit target, and they hold. Their stops are just above the R.

Price stalls at resistance. Now the market is waiting to see, nobody wants to buy or sell at the R line before seeing confirmation. At that point, nobody is moving, so the liquidity is very low. Big trader steps up and buys another big chunk, price spikes up and starts hitting stops, now all the short traders start getting out (buying), others were on the sidelines waiting for the R breakout, and go long(buying).

Small traders are buying on the way up, now big trader is selling, taking profit again. Upward momentum slows.

The breakout turns fakeout as price goes back down through the R (now support) and now the longs get stopped out on the way back down(selling), the traders who waited now go short(selling), and the major trend resumes.....
  • #56
  • Dec 8, 2007 1:21pm Dec 8, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting Angler
Hi...


Lets not get confused here about someone claiming to have the Holy Grail of trading.....and someone who is a successful trader...

The claim here is a system/trading method that almost never fails.....
Appreciate the clarity Angler, but to be even clearer there is a way to trade the market and almost never lose. You and some others seem to suggest it isn't possible when it is, this is a huge disservice to new traders.

There are many successful traders, but many don't know they have a winning trade until it wins - and then there are some that know it is a winner when they click the mouse. It would behoove you and others to support the latter of the two and encourage people to share what they know. If you just want someone to argue with get married. That's what I did
Robonacci com
  • #57
  • Dec 8, 2007 1:27pm Dec 8, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting Angler
Hi..

A
In this Section of the Forum you find the beginners...the inexperienced traders all looking for a way to make money...as mentioned before...why put it here...OH...maybe to attract those inexperienced people....just a thought...


Hope your trading goes well...

LOL. The reason I put it here is to let people know that if they discard indicators (which are nothing but derivatives of price action), watch PA alone, and just think about why prices move, they will be on the way to more successful trading.

And your contribution?
Chance favors the prepared
  • #58
  • Edited 8:34pm Dec 8, 2007 1:39pm | Edited 8:34pm
Quoting JohnW
. Nothing worked. I slowly have come to the decision that all forex system vendors/gurus are frauds (Birdwatching in Lion Country comes to mind).

I needed to be exposed to (and fleeced by) trading mentors/gurus until I discovered that the Holy Grail does exist but no vendor will sell it. No vendor/mentor that I have come in contact with has anything even close.

With persistence, just when you get completely fed up with discretionary systems, arcane indicators, and blowhard fraudulent vendors/gurus, the fog will clear and you, too, will find the Holy Grail.
I have to take exception to your blanket statement about mentors or those who sell systems. While many sub-par programs and scam artists exist out there, your comment is a complete jab at those of us who approach this field in an honest and forthright manner.

Besides, anyone with experience trading should already know that you can make money with many different types of systems. Systems simply give you quantifiable reasons to enter positions. The key to making money is not really the entry it is the subsequent money management.
  • #59
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:32pm Dec 8, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting digimix
.....I belive if it is possible to have 234 out of 240 trade successful. It is quit easy if you use incorrect risk proportions like 10 pip target to a 500 pip stop loss. the probability of your target getting hit before your stop loss is hit is very high. However it will take 50 successfull trades to make up one loss that will inevitably come......
Digimix, IMHO you are spot on. The key number is expectancy (or "profit factor", "PF"), which is the product of win rate and win size (or "return/risk", "RR"). Everything else being equal, setting our targets closer than our stoplosses will generally mean a higher win rate, but lower RR. And vice versa. Of course the RR dynamics change as the stoploss is moved to breakeven and/or trailed. Then it's necessary to analyze the stats of a trade sample, to get much the same info, i.e. dollars won (return) divided by dollars lost (drawdown). That gives us $$$ won for each $ placed at risk.

Saying that a system is generating X pips or X% p.a. is, by itself meaningless, because we can (for example) double the value of X by simply doubling position size, triple X by tripling position size, and so on. But increasing position size increases drawdown in like proportion. Hence PF gives us a true measure of efficiency, independent of position size. [Of course this is all basic MM, covered in detail elsewhere by Diallist, PeterFM, Fijitrader, Darkstar, and many others. But it's surprising how many (supposedly experienced) traders harm their credibility (IMHO) by quoting win rate without win size, return without drawdown, etc.]

Having tried unsuccessfully myself for 6 years, and being very wary of the claims made by vendors and salesmen, I'm extremely skeptical: it takes a lot to convince me. JohnW's post attracted me not because of any hype, but (as Angler points out – post #51) because a 97.5% win rate across 240 trades goes beyond "successful trading": it is exceptional! Of course his RR may well be very low. We can only wonder what size dent the 6 losses made in the 234 wins, and, moreover, how indicative – or sustainable – his performance in the first 6 months is likely to be. Having said that, 240 trades is a reasonable sample size, carrying an error (at a 95% confidence level) of around 6.5%. In other words, we can say with 95% assurance that his future win rate will be 97.5% +/– 6.5% (although a win rate > 100% might be difficult, LOL).

More importantly, his post also caught my attention because it paralleled the struggles I've had, my growing skepticism toward sophisticated TA approaches, and because I also feel similarly about vendors and mentors.

There's some typically negative stuff being posted here. Perhaps some post out of envy of a 97.5% win rate, perhaps some post out of a genuine motive to warn newbies that consistent profitability is not that easy (I can relate to that!). One thing I have learned, trading panders to two of the greatest human fragilities: being right, and making money. Anyway, whatever, each individual knows their own motive.

So why does JohnW need to generate attention if he's not intending to sell his system, or mentorship? The message in his original post seems to be that, if one perseveres long enough using PA-based techniques, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Quite the contrary of deserving criticism, I view any offer of free mentorship as being extraordinarily generous. I also see it as the ultimate recommendation, because in order to offer his/her services for free, the mentor is apparently making his/her livelihood from trading itself! Having said that, I don't have a problem with genuinely successful people charging for their time, if they choose to. Of course it's the buyer's decision as to whether to proceed with or without first seeing independently audited proof of trading performance.

In post #42, Angler says: "if it seems to good to be true, it usually is". I can certainly second that, primarily because I believe that the best it's possible for any method to achieve is to select and exploit whatever small measure of predictability does exist. So let's at least reserve judgment long enough give JohnW the opportunity to post his Word doc, if he generously decides to do so. We have nothing to lose: at the very least, it may contribute some ideas suitable for some FF patrons to incorporate into their trading systems.

David
  • #60
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:57pm Dec 8, 2007 2:57pm
JohnW,

Could you please share your method to include entry, exit, and the time frame that is used? Do you have 100% mechanical rules or are you a discretionary trader? What is you positive hit rate and risk/reward ratio that is used?

Thanks,
lcfxtrader
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